Raisi Has ‘Final Say’ On Nuclear Deal, As Khamenei Out Of Public View
Iran’s ruler Ali Khamenei has been absent from public view for two weeks, while some say that he has delegated the nuclear issue to President Ebrahim Raisi.
Iran’s ruler Ali Khamenei has been absent from public view for two weeks, while some say that he has delegated the nuclear issue to President Ebrahim Raisi.
Khabar Online website has quoted reformist commentator Abbas Abdi on Wednesday as saying, "I have been informed by reliable sources that the leader has vested Rasi with the responsibility of deciding on the nuclear issue."
In the absence of Khamenei from the public scene for about two weeks, the handover gives rise to speculations whether the leader delegated part of his authority because of a medical emergency, or he simply wanted to shift the responsibility for a key decision to Raisi so that he could remain in a position to criticize any possible deal, if things do not work well.
Abdi noted that although it has been said over and over in Iran that accepting or rejecting a nuclear deal can be done only by the Supreme Leader, it is now evident that Raisi is in charge of the nuclear deal and whether he signs an agreement or rejects it, he will be responsible for it.
The Iranian government has not denied social media reports about Khamenei's illness. Meanwhile, the leader's office has cancelled two scheduled meetings with the Assembly of Experts members and Bassij militia during the past days.
In another development, a picture released by the official news agency IRNA last week about Khamenei's meeting with athletes, turned out to be at last three years old and the agency pulled the story. All this may indicate that Khamenei is not physically in a good position for public appearances.
Khamenei's previous absences ended with his powerful re-emergence to deny the report and discredit foreign media who went out of their way to say he was dead. That kind of a publicity stunt cannot be ruled out before more solid evidence emerges about his condition.
In still another development, former lawmaker Ahmad Mazani, a reformist figure, said in an interview with conservative Nameh News that Raisi and Majles Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf should be held accountable for the consequences of any delay in reviving the 2015 nuclear agreement, the JCPOA. Like Abdi, Mazani also said, "The news that has reached us says that the Supreme Leader has delegated the responsibility for the revival of the JCPOA to President Raisi as the chairman of the Supreme Council of National Security."
Nonetheless, Abdi noted that still anyone who thinks Khamenei does not have the final say on the nuclear case, has no proper understanding of the status of the Supreme Leader and the significance of a nuclear deal for the Islamic Republic.
Abdi said, this explains why and how the Iranian parliament approved the JCPOA in 2015 within 20 minutes and the Guardian Council uncharacteristically did not find any fault in the decision made by the Majles.
In another development, the Jomhouri Eslami [Islamic Republic] newspaper, a daily founded by Khamenei, wrote in its editorial on Wednesday that "The key to lift the sanctions on Iran is in the hands of the Raisi Administration." The daily further called on the government to "end this story."
The editorial went on, "Now the people expect the Iranian government to solve this problem in this suitable situation and conclude several years of negotiations from a position of power."
Eighteen months after efforts began between Iran and six world powers to revive the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, negotiations are on hold after Iran and the United States exchanged messages following a European Union text circulated August 8 suggesting ways forward.
In a statement to the governing board of the International Atomic Energy Agency Tuesday, the US said that while it was ready “to quickly implement…mutual return to full implementation” of the 2015 agreement, the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), “what we lack is a willing partner in Iran.”
Tehran, which began exceeding the deal’s nuclear limits the year after the US left it in 2018, has attributed the pause in talks to the US being unwilling to accept Iranian ‘red lines’ – including ‘guarantees’ designed to cushion Iran against another US withdrawal – as well as to domestic political US politics.
Some analysts have argued that President Joe Biden does not want Iran to become an issue in November 8 Congressional elections, where the Democrats hope to retain control of the Senate. Critics of the JCPOA, who are disproportionately though not exclusively Republicans, tend to see any airing of Biden’s approach to Iran as a possible vote-winner.
Ned Price, the State Department spokesman, said in his press briefing Tuesday the administration was “not going to detail…publicly” its recent feedback on the August 8 EU text. Price did say Iran had in its latest input taken a “step backwards in many ways.” But he added: “This is a negotiation. There are going to be back-and-forths. Some gaps have closed in recent weeks, but others clearly remain.”
Motion for Congress to see deal proposals
With US officials, including Malley, due to brief members of the House of Representatives today, the House Foreign Affairs Committee at 1pm is due to discuss a motion from Virginia Foxx, a Republican. Raised in July, the motion requests the president “transmit certain documents to the House of Representatives relating to any initiative or negotiations regarding Iran’s nuclear program.” Under current legislation, it is believed the administration would submit to Congress any text over reviving the JCPOA only once agreement was reached.
In his press briefing Tuesday Price denied reports, arising from briefings given by an Israeli official accompanying Prime Minister Yair Lapid in Germany, that Malley had been sidelined. “There is nothing to those reports,” Price said. “I can tell you Rob is deeply engaged day-to-day on the substance of this. He is leading a team here at the department.”
Opponents of the JCPOA, although they mostly backed President Trump leaving the agreement and imposing ‘maximum pressure’ sanctions through presidential actions, have accused the Biden administration of trying to sideline Congress. Defending the administration’s record, Price spoke Tuesday of State Department officials, “including Rob,” being “up on the Hill [Capitol Hill, Congress] a number of times briefing relevant committees on our efforts to achieve a mutual return to compliance with the JCPOA.”
Ulyanov: No new resolution at IAEA board
One aspect of the nuclear talks concerning JCPOA critics have been reports, denied by US officials, that the administration has been ready to soften its demand that Iran fully satisfy the IAEA over uranium traces found in sites not declared as nuclear-related. While the US, alongside three European states, moved a motion censuring Tehran at the IAEA board in June, no further action was expected at this week’s quarterly board meeting.
Mikhail Ulyanov, Russia’s ambassador to the IAEA, tweeted Wednesday that discussion of Iran at the board had passed with “no resolution or decision…Just exchange of views.”
The adviser said Ahmadinejad believes that the collapse of the regime is imminent and that he wants to play a part during the transition period similar to what Yeltsin did in Russia. So, it is important for him to preserve his position in the system, that is currently limited to his membership in the Expediency Council.
Abdolreza Davari who was loyal to Ahmadinejad during his presidency (2005-2013), but later turned against him to appease the current hardliner government, also opined that President Ebrahim Raisi’s government is in fact the continuation of Ahmadinejad's administration.
He claimed that if Ahadinejad was to form a cabinet for a third term, he would have more or less chosen the same ministers. "The difference is that this third government is far less efficient than the first two," he said.
Davari pointed out in his interview with Khabar Online website in Tehran, that the difference between Ahmadinejad and Raisi is that the former had a lot of managerial track record, but the latter lacks any executive experience.
In fact, most of the hardliner Paydari front dominating the parliament and many of Raisi’s ministers were Ahmadinejad supporters and officials who broke away from him, at least publicly, after he fell out of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s favor.
Ahmadinejad turned into an effective critic of the ruling elite, when he levelled all sorts of accusations against Iranian officials including Khamenei after 2017. The charges Ahmadinejad made against Khamenei, former President Hassan Rouhani and former Judiciary Chief Sadeq Amoli Larijani and former Majles Speaker Ali Larijani included accusations of financial corruption, and political inefficiency.
Nonetheless, Davari observed that Ahmadinejad has been conspicuously silent during recent months. He said this is because the former President does not wish to lose his position at the Expediency Council by making comments that might annoy Khamenei. His job at the EC gives him a margin of security that protects him against his political rivals. Davari also said that another reason for Ahmadinejad's silence is that the team that administered his social media accounts has separated from him and he no longer has access to those accounts.
Davari further claimed that Ahamadinejad cannot gather more than 200 to 300 people in Tehran while his predecessor former President Mohammad Khatami can have up to 10 thousand of his supporters gathered in the Iranian capital. This claim runs counter to facts, however, as thousands of people showed up at some of Ahamdinejad’s rallies in provinces prior to June 2021 elections.
Meanwhile, he wrote letters to US Presidents Obama and Trump, as well as renowned artists including Angela Joly and voiced his ideas about almost everything in tweets in English addressing well-known celebrities.
Ahmadinejad also went to international exhibitions abroad including in the United Arab Emirates and Turkey, where he seized the opportunity to give interviews to the press and expressed his ideas about "managing the world," a topic that was his favorite during the eight years of his presidency.
Ahmadinejad was the first Iranian President who went to New York to take part in the UN General Assembly every year. When in New York, he made all sorts of controversial remarks about hot topics including the Holocaust, homosexuality, Iran's problematic ties with the United States and its enmity with Israel.
Last year, Iran International published a facial composite of Salarvand that was obtained from Lab-Doukhtegan (Sealed Lips) hacktivist group, and the new photo – released for the first time by an account called ‘3ackd0or’ on Tuesday – corroborated his identity.
He is the head of the ‘Intelligence Group 13,’ which is apparently a sub-group within the Shahid Kaveh unit, headed by an IRGC cyber warfare commander, Hamidreza Lashkarian (Lashgarian)
Salarvand’s team was in charge of preparing a database of targets for cyberattacks, including cargo ships, gas stations and maritime control centers in the US and elsewhere.
The 30-year-old with a bachelor’s degree in information technology engineering from the South Branch of Tehran’s Azad University with a lower-than-average grade of 13, according to his BS certificate, which was also released by Lab-Doukhtegan.
On Monday, Iran International released photos of key Iranian players in global cyberattacks who are affiliated with various government intelligence agencies in Tehran.
Last week, Albania cut diplomatic relations with Iran and expelled its diplomats and immediately its security forces entered the embassy compound looking for evidence.
The United States imposed sanctions on Iran’s intelligence ministry and its minister, with NATO also expressing support for its member state Albania.