Former President’s Son Suggests Evin Prison Fire Was Intentional

Fararu, which is a pro-reform website, interviewed Iranian economist Vahid Shaqaqi Shahri who said if the regime fails to clinch an agreement with the West over its controversial nuclear program and revive the JCPOA, the country may experience higher inflation that might bring its economic growth to zero in 2023.

Shaqaqi told Fararu that while Iran’s neighbors including Turkey and Saudi Arabia have experienced double-digit growths in the past few years, the economy of the Islamic Republic has shrunk in the face of sanctions and skyrocketing inflation.

Iran’s economy is almost completely state-run and the decision-makers in the country show no flexibility or interest in reform even though many warn the system needs drastic changes. The average annual inflation in the sixth months of the current Iranian year reached 42.1%, the Statistical Center of Iran announced in a report in September.

As the streets of many cities have turned into scenes of antigovernment protests since mid-September in the latest wave of anger at the totalitarian approach of the clerical regime towards cultural, political, and economic issues, there seems to be no glimpse of hope for any reforms by the authorities.

The people who are currently venting anger against the Islamic Republic in the streets and demand regime change are fed up with economic pressure and see a gloomy future for themselves; however, the government keeps cracking down, showing no interest in reforms.

In his Saturday interview with the Fararu news website, Shaqaqi said that the Iranian “economy has no more capacity to tumble down further.”

This university professor also referred to a recent report by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) which has forecast high energy and food prices and tougher economic conditions in 2023, warning that without “economic reforms, empowering the private sector, development of non-oil exports, and increase in investments,” Iran might see a more crippled economy next year.

Earlier this week, the IMF reported that with “Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the lingering COVID-19 pandemic all weigh heavily on the outlook, global growth is forecast to slow from 6.0 percent in 2021 to 3.2 percent in 2022 and 2.7 percent in 2023.”

This Iranian expert further noted that there are two more possible scenarios for the Iranian economy next year. “The optimistic scenario is that the JCPOA will be revived, and with the removal of the sanctions, the inflation rate will decrease to 20 percent and an economic growth of five percent could be achieved.”

With a slight increase in oil sales, Iran's economy has gained about 40 billion dollars from non-oil exports and imported a total worth of 45 billion dollarsin goods, Shaqaqi said, adding that the country has achieved economic growth of two to three percent, as predicted by the International Monetary Fund. However, he said, “if the conditions remain the same and sanctions are not increased,” one or two percent economic growth along with a 40 percent inflation can also be seen for Iran in 2023.

Iran’s economy is mostly influenced by political power. The government believes that in case of losing control over the economy, it will lose political authority.

A notable example is the Revolutionary Guard that plays a very significant role in the economy by monopolistic practices. Several cases of corruption and mega-size embezzlements have diminished popular trust in the regime.

According to a report by the Jerusalem Post on Sunday, plainclothes men with Lebanese-accented Arabic speakers were seen trying to help Iranian police, Revolutionary Guards, and Basij to suppress the protesters in various cities, including in the capital of Tehran. 

Videos of the Arabic-speaking individuals violently beating Iranian protesters have earlier surfaced on social media. Iran International cannot independently verify the authenticity of the claim.

However, earlier in October, Hezbollah’s Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah promoted the Islamic Republic’s propaganda line, trying to deflect blame over the death of Mahsa Amini, the 22-year-old whose death sparked the uprising. 

Referring to Amini’s death as a “vague incident,” Nasrallah -- whose militant movement was created by Iran in early 1980s and has been receiving money and weapons from Iran ever since, said her death was a plot to weaken the Islamic Republic and create regional tensions.

Hezbollah is also using all its propaganda tools to show support for the Islamic Republic and misrepresent the current nationwide protests in Iran, organizing rallies in support of the regime in Tehran with students from its private educational system – the Mahdi schools.

Condemning the violence in a statement on Sunday, the Coordination Council of Iranian Teachers’ Trade Associations, the body that has organized numerous nationwide protest rallies and strikes in the past few years, described the minister as an “incompetent and good-for-nothing element.” 

"Unfortunately, in the last week, we witnessed the brutal attack of security forces and plainclothes on educational centers in various cities of the country, including schools in Kordestan province, Gohardasht and Mehrshahr near the capital Tehran, Orumiyeh (Urmia) and Ardabil in northwestern Iran and the northern city of Rasht,” the statement read. “Creating terror, the security forces arrested several students and transferred them to unknown places," it added. 

The latest case was the attack on a school in Ardabil, where school officials tried to force the students to sing the propaganda song “Hello Commander” in praise of Iran’s ruler Ali Khamenei, but when some students refused, government agents showed up, beating and assaulting the girls. One student, identified as Asra Panahi, reportedly died of her injuries at the hospital while another one is in critical condition. 

On Saturday, hardliner news agencies published a video of an interview with Asra Panahi’s uncle in which he said she has died of a congenital heart condition.

Amid nationwide protests that have even mobilized Iranian high school students, the Islamic Republic authorities are removing photos of the Supreme Leader from classrooms in fear of students damaging the portraits.

Sources in Tehran told Iran International TV Sunday morning that four of the inmates had been seen in body covers after the incident. Hours later, Mizan, the official news agency of the Judiciary, said four prisoners died of “smoke inhalation” and four others were in critical condition. Mizan has said that the four who died were “serving time for theft”.

The names of the victims have not been disclosed.

Many inmates’ family members gathered in front of the prison Sunday morning to enquire about the safety of their loved ones. The prison houses many political prisoners and prisoners of conscience including some of those arrested in recent protests, as well as others serving time for financial and other crimes.

Rights activists are collecting information from families and compiling a list of all inmates and their health conditions. An informed source said some of the prisoners of the ward were beaten up and put in shackles outside the building during the fire.

Human rights advocate and lawyer Mostafa Nili, in a tweet Sunday said some of the inmates have been removed from Ward Eight, where both political and financial prisoners are held.

According to Nili and others, political prisoners in Ward Four were only affected by tear gas and none have been taken away.These sources have also said female inmates in the Women’s Ward were tear gassed when they went outside the building but are safe and have begun contacting their families.

Nili said he had no reliable information on the situation in Ward Seven, where scuffles between security forces and inmates and the fire occurred.

In an earlier tweet Nili said he went to the prison to enquire about the safety of his clients but there was no one was to respond. He later reported that he had talked to an assistant prosecutor who said everyone would be allowed to contact their families.

The Revolutionary Guards (IRGC)-linked Fars news agency quoted an official Sunday as saying that some of the inmates had walked into a minefield on the hill in the northern side of the prison while fleeing and caused the explosions were heard by the locals. Another hardliner website with close ties to the IRGC, Mashregh News, claimed Sunday that seven inmates were killed at the minefield.

Speaking to Sharq newspaper Sunday morning, an informed source from Prisons Organization strongly refuted the claim. Fars also later quoted another ‘informed source” as saying that none of the inmates had entered the minefield.

Some of the prisoners have been allowed to call their families. In a phone call to his wife, filmmaker Jafar Panahi has said he and other inmates had gone out into the courtyard after the fire broke out but had to go back inside when security forces fired tear gas at them.

Authorities have made different and contradictory statements about the cause of the fire but claim that it was started by inmates after they had a scuffle among themselves in a clothing depo or in a sewing workshop. They also insist that that the incident was not related to ongoing protests or prisoners serving security-related time such as political prisoners and prisoners of conscience.

Radio Farda, the Persian Service of the US government’s Radio Free Europe (RFE/RL), published a video Sunday which appears to show a fire being lit in an area inside the prison. In the video several bright objects are seen rising from a distance and descending on the prison after which explosions are heard. An eyewitness told Radio Farda that there were five explosions in total.

During a press gaggle in Portland, Oregon, on Saturday, Biden said, “The Iranian government is so oppressive, you can’t have anything but an enormous amount of respect for those people marching in the streets.”

He admitted that he was “surprised” by the way Iranians are protesting against the Islamic Republic, saying that “I was surprised by the courage of people and women taking the street — taking off their head scarf.”

He also pointed out that the Islamic Republic’s authorities are not good people, noting that it is “amazing” how Iranians have revolted against the government.

Also on Sunday, Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanaani censured Biden’s remarks, saying “He interfered for the umpteenth time in Iran's state matters by supporting the riots as he has done ever since the outbreak of recent developments in Iran.” 

Amid a nationwide uprising ignited by death in custody of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini, at least four people died Saturday evening as a large fire spread in Tehran’s Evin Prison while gunshots and blasts were heard. 

The deaths of prisoners have added fuel to the fire of Iran protests which started 30 days ago. On Sunday, students at University of Tehran held another protest rally, chanting, "Tehran Turned into Prison, Evin Turned into Slaughterhouse."

"Another Cinema Rex Fire Happening. Enough Is Enough, People, Join Us," Tehran University students were heard chanting, referring to the deadly 1978 fire at Cinema Rex of Abadan in southern Iran which killed some 400 people and intensified the 1979 Revolution.