US And E3 ‘Pretty Much Aligned’ Over Iran
Iran Saturday criticized France, Germany, and the United Kingdom for taking to the United Nations Security Council Tehran’s reported supply of drones to Russia.
Iran Saturday criticized France, Germany, and the United Kingdom for taking to the United Nations Security Council Tehran’s reported supply of drones to Russia.
Nasser Kanaani, the foreign ministry spokesman, said the claims over armed drones were “false and baseless” and called for “an immediate end to the war in Ukraine through a political process.” The spokesman recalled the supplies from Europe – principally Germany – that enabled Saddam Hussein’s regime to produce chemical weapons used against Iran in the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq war.
The souring of relations between Iran and the ‘E3’ comes as Europeans submitted a letter Friday to the current United Nations Security Council (UNSC) President, Gabon Ambassador Michel Biang, calling for a UN secretariat probe into reports that Russia has used Iranian-made drones (UAVs, unmanned aerial vehicles) in the Ukraine war.
Both the E3 and the United States have argued that any such supply would breach UNSC Resolution 2231, which endorsed the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement, the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action). “Open source reporting suggests that Iran intends to transfer yet more UAVs and, potentially, ballistic missiles to Russia… a significant escalation,” the letter read.
While drones used by Russia have played a minor role in the war, their deployment against civilian targets has been highlighted by Ukraine in its call for greater military support from the US and EU, while the US has argued that Iran could supply other hardware. Washington and EU supplies of weapons to Ukraine of over $20 billion has enabled Ukraine to push back against Russia’s invasion.
Friday’s joint press conference in Washington with Secretary of State Antony Blinken and French foreign minister Catherine Colonna confirmed the Ukraine crisis bringing Washington and the E3 closer together. With Germany generally taking a more cautious line against Russia and Britain facing another domestic leadership contest, France is taking a more prominent role.
The E3 letter could be a first step to moving ‘snapback’ sanctions on Iran, a provision of the JCPOA. The E3 have accepted the US cannot do this as it left the JCPOA in 2018 and imposed ‘maximum pressure’ sanctions on Iran in violation of the 2015 agreement.
But the procedures, more so the consequences, of such a move are unclear. Firstly, the argument that Iran supplying drones to Russia violates the JCPOA rests on a clause in Resolution 2231, and linked US letter to the UNSC, that was primarily intended to restrict types of arms going into, rather than out of, Iran. Such transfers, the resolution says, require UNSC approval.
Secondly, Iran has already argued its expansion since 2019 of its nuclear program beyond JCPOA limits does not violate the agreement because of a provision that any violation of the agreement by other parties – for example by the US imposing ‘maximum pressure’ sanctions in 2018 – would constitute “grounds [for Iran] to cease performing its commitments under the JCPOA.” The same argument could be made over drones.
The ‘snapback’ procedure
If the E3 does move for snapback, the procedure outlined in the JCPOA gives a 30-day period for any JCPOA signatory to move a resolution opposing the re-introduction of international sanctions. This, presumably, could be vetoed by France or Germany, bringing the sanctions back into effect but with Russia and China refusing to accept them, perhaps citing as a precedent the US breaking USNC 2231 in 2018.
Given Europe’s trade with Iran has fallen dramatically under US ‘maximum pressure’ sanctions – which threaten punitive US action again any third party dealing with Iran – renewed European sanctions would have little economic impact.
Some analysts also argue a debate highlighting violations of UN resolution would alienate countries like India and China already uneasy with the US and EU approach to the Ukraine crisis, thereby deepening ties within an ‘Asian bloc’ led by Moscow and Beijing.
Blinken said Friday that the US remained committed to revive the JCPOA, an effort he distinguished from “Iran’s activities, Iran's aggression, whether it’s in the Middle East or beyond.” But is its widely suggested that any escalation through the UN, by the US or the E3, would doom efforts to restore the 2015 agreement. Colonna said at Friday’s press conference that France and the US were “pretty much aligned” on Iran.
The decisions introduce travel bans and asset freezes on Major-General Mohammad Hossein Bagheri, chief of staff of Iran’s armed forces, General Seyed Hojjatollah Qureishi, a senior defense official, and Brigadier-General Saeed Aghajani, the head of “UAV command” (unmanned aerial vehicle) in the Revolutionary Guards Aerospace Force. The sanctioned company Shahed Aviation Industries makes Shahed-136 drones.
An EU statement said Bagheri supervised Iran’s drone program, played a “fundamental role in Iran’s defence cooperation” with Russia, including supplying Mohajer-6 drones “for their use in the war of aggression against Ukraine.” Qureishi, the statement said, headed logistics at the Ministry of Defense and had negotiated with Russia over drone supply, while Aghajani headed “the backbone” of Iran’s drone program.
A statement from British foreign secretary James Cleverly said the UK was acting against “those who have supplied the drones used by Russia to target Ukrainian civilians and that there was “clear evidence of Iran’s destabilising role in global security.” The British foreign office said the three individuals were “personally responsible” for providing drones used by Russia in Ukraine.
The EU decisions follows discussions going on since a foreign ministers meeting Monday. Arriving in Luxemburg for that gathering, Josep Borrell, the EU foreign policy chief, had said Europe was seeking “concrete evidence” that Russia had used Shahed-136 drones in recent weeks.
A CNN correspondent tweeted Tuesday that the network had been given “exclusive access to an Iranian-made Mohajer-6 drone, shot down a few weeks ago by Ukrainian forces in Southern Ukraine.” The drone, with the marking ER-860, appeared in excellent condition.
‘Dangerous new phase’
The Wall Street Journal reported Thursday that US and European sanctions against Iran would complement additional military aid to Ukraine. The Journal cited “officials,” presumably American, suggesting Russia’s use of drones “takes the war in Ukraine into a dangerous new phase.”
The US has sent Ukraine over $17 billion in aid, mainly in weapons, and the EU this week added $500 million to the $2.5 billion already sent in military supplies. Washington, which is so far denying Ukraine more advanced weapons so as to avoid escalation, says it wants to degrade Russian capacity as its diminishing stocks of Cruise and other missiles, which have inflicted far more damage than drones, which carry less explosives and are relatively easy to shoot down. Both the US and Turkey have supplied Ukraine with drones.
Iran has developed its drone program due to its lack of an effective air-force given international sanctions. The Shahed-129, an earlier version, may have been a copy of the Hermes 450, a drone made by Israel, which along with Turkey leads Middle East drone production.
US will ‘surge security assistance’
A US statement Wednesday said it had raised, alongside France and the UK, the alleged drone transfer at the United Nations Security Council (UNSC). The statement said Washington would “continue to surge unprecedented security assistance to Ukraine” and reiterated the claim, made also by European officials, that any Iranian supply of drones would violate UNSC Resolution 2231, passed in 2015 to endorse the Iranian nuclear agreement, the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action). The US said this week that Iran had also supplied drones to Ethiopia in 2021.
Ukraine’s ambassador to the UN Sergiy Kyslytsya claimed Wednesday that Iranian drones allegedly used by Russia “meet the parameters” of UNSC Resolution 2231 “because they are capable of a range of equal to or greater than 300 kilometers (186 miles).” However, there is no mention of drones in the resolution, and its restrictions on Iran lasting to October 2023 refer only to “any activity related to ballistic missiles designed to be capable of delivering nuclear weapons…”
The US in September sanctioned several Iranian companies it said were involved in producing drones supplied to Russia, but it was unclear how the measures would add in practice to existing US ‘maximum pressure’ sanctions, which have since Washington left the JCPOA in 2018 threatened punitive action against any entity worldwide dealing with Iran.