Iran Promises ‘Firm Answer’ As Nuclear Rhetoric Sharpens
Elections in the United States and Israel have further dimmed prospects for reviving the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement, with some analysts now proclaiming it dead.
Elections in the United States and Israel have further dimmed prospects for reviving the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement, with some analysts now proclaiming it dead.
Mohammad Eslami, a vice-President and head of the Atomic Energy Agency of Iran, promised Saturday a “firm answer” to Thursday’s United States-sponsored resolution censuring Tehran at the governing board of the International Atomic Energy Agency. Speaking in Esfahan, Eslami evoked the “self-sacrifice” of the 23,000 “martyrs” from the province who died in the 1980-88 war with Iraq.
This was not the only talk this week of war. In a piece headlined ‘The Post Iran nuclear deal world won’t be pretty’ in the influential US magazine Foreign Policy, columnist Anchal Vohra suggested the US, or “the West,” could “even consider direct military intervention” to curb Iran’s nuclear program. Short of that, Vohra wrote, US might be “accelerating” supply to Israel of refueling tankers and other equipment that could assist an Israel strike on Iran.
Incoming Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, whose government will include members of the Religious Zionism party, will inherit developed plans for attacking Iran, outgoing defense minister Benny Gantz said November 9. Recent reports have suggested the US is opposing the appointment of Religious Zionism leader Bezalel Smotrich to the defense portfolio.
Vohra’s Foreign Policy analysis, which drew on one published by Iran International in September, suggested that steps to pressure Iran, as military preparations were made, might include greater efforts on penalizing Chinese entities importing Iranian oil and petroleum products.
But in an informal survey of analysts, Vohra found little expectation that such steps would change Iran’s approach to the talks, which began April 2021, to revive the 2015 nuclear agreement, the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action). Tehran has drawn ‘red lines’ that it shows no sign of erasing. These include ‘guarantees’ of economic measures to cushion Iran against the US later leaving a revised agreement, and insisting that the International Atomic Energy drop enquiries into uranium traces found in sites linked to Iran’s nuclear work before 2003.
JCPOA: dead or comatose?
The US argument that such ‘red lines’ go beyond the JCPOA left the analysts surveyed by Vohra divided as the whether the JCPOA was dead or comatose. “While in a deep coma…none of the parties wants to declare it dead, which would be an admission of foreign-policy failure,” said Mark Fitzpatrick, associate fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies. “It is hard to imagine that the deal could be restored,” said Ali Vaez, senior advisor at the International Crisis Group.
While President Joe Biden maintains his intention is to work diplomatically to revive the JCPOA – and that he is continuing ‘maximum pressure’ sanctions purely to that end – the Republican Party’s capture of the House of Representatives after the November 8 elections may well see growing Congressional opposition to the 2015 agreement, especially with so much focus on current protests in Iran and on Tehran’s supply of military drones used by Russia in Ukraine.
Vohra suggested that both the US and Iran may feel their leverage is growing. Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi told the United Nations General Assembly in September that Tehran had neutralized ‘maximum pressure’ in many cases. Some Iranian analysts also argue that looming energy shortages due to curbs on Russian exports may incentivize European states to seek JCPOA revival as a way to lift sanctions on Iran’s crude oil.
‘Threat to Europe’
But the European signatories of the JCPOA – France, Germany, and the United Kingdom – as well as the European Union, which has chaired JCPOA revivals talks, are showing greater affinity with the US and a growing reluctance to deal diplomatically with a Tehran linked closer to Russia. Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, Friday played down the challenge over energy supplies while arguing that Iran’s “weapons proliferation” was a threat to Europe.
“It took us too long to understand a very simple fact that while we work to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons, we must also focus on other forms of weapons proliferation, from drones to ballistic missiles,” she said. “It is a security risk not just for the Middle East, but for us all.”
Speaking to reporters in Paris, Malley appeared to jettison the logic of the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement, which restricted Tehran’s atomic program in return for the easing of international sanctions. Eighteen-month talks to revive the agreement, from which former president Trump withdrew the US in 2018, have come to naught.
“Our focus is not an accord that isn’t moving forward, but what is happening in Iran ... this popular movement and the brutal crackdown of the regime against protesters,” Malley said. “It’s the sale of armed drones by Iran to Russia ... and the liberation of our hostages…” At least three American nationals are detained in Iran, with talks for a prisoner swap inconclusive.
Malley reiterated Washington’s view that the talks to revive the 2015 agreement, the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), had floundered because of both “Iran’s position,” in making demands the US considers beyond the JCPOA, and “everything that has happened since [September].” Recent protests in Iran followed the September 16 death of Mahsa Amini after detention by Tehran ‘morality police.’
President Joe Biden came to office in 2021 committed to reviving the JCPOA as a non-proliferation agreement and thereby lifting the ‘maximum pressure’ sanctions introduced by Trump. But Biden’s administration has extended sanctions, citing both Tehran’s military links with Russia and its treatment of protestors.
Since 2019, the year after the US left the JCPOA, Iran has in response gradually extended its nuclear program and according to the latest report from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has now 3,674kg of enriched uranium. This is far above the 267kg JCPOA limit, and includes 62kg enriched to 60 percent, a short step from the 90 percent considered ‘weapons grade.’
Under the JCPOA Iran enriched only to 3.67 percent. Under the JCPOA it employed only 6,104 first-generation centrifuges whereas it now additionally uses at least 4,000 more advanced centrifuges that were banned under the 2015 agreement.
‘No magic…new formula’
Malley said Monday the US would discuss with its “European allies” what steps to take should Iran continue to expand nuclear activities. “If Iran takes the initiative to cross new thresholds in its nuclear program, then obviously the response will be different and coordinated with our European allies…There is no magic in which we will find a new formula.”
With Benjamin Netanyahu set to return to office and the outgoing Israeli administration suggesting it had thoroughly prepared for a military attack on Iran, both the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia show concern over rising tensions. While Central Intelligence Agency director William Burns Monday met the head of Russian foreign intelligence Sergey Naryshkin in Ankara to discuss ‘risk management,’ there has been speculation that Moscow has decided to supply Iran with Su-35 fighter jets.
Anwar Gargash, diplomatic adviser to UAE President Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, said Monday the Emirates had no interest in “choosing sides” between competing powers. Gargash said that while the UAE wanted “codified and unambivalent commitments” from the US, it hoped to see effort put into easing strains and encouraging economic growth without relying on “just one or two countries.”
Both the UAE and Saudi Arabia are expanding trade with China, while Riyadh has led coordination through Opec+ with Russia over oil production levels. The UAE has stepped back from involvement in violent conflict in Yemen and Libya, and earlier this year restored full diplomatic relations with Iran after a six-year gap. While the UAE in 2020 ‘normalized’ relations with Israel, Saudi Arabia so far has maintained the Arab League position that this requires Israeli recognition of Palestinian statehood.