While Iran Hoped Europe Would Freeze, It Sells Oil At Half Price
Some pundits in Iran are reminding the hardliners that a few months ago they were predicting Europe’s agony in winter cold, while now Iran faces energy shortage.
Some pundits in Iran are reminding the hardliners that a few months ago they were predicting Europe’s agony in winter cold, while now Iran faces energy shortage.
Heshmatollah Falahatpisheh, an outspoken critic of the government in foreign policy, nuclear talks and energy, says predictions by Iranian officials that Europe would plunge in cold and darkness this winter and they would run back to nuclear negotiations with Iran have turned out to be "illusions."
Some Iranian officials including Mohammad Marandi, who accompanies Iranian nuclear negotiators, have been saying since last summer that "a hard winter in Europe" will force European powers to come back to the negotiating table. Marandi had predicted: "The winter is coming, and the EU will have to face a paralyzing energy crisis."
The hardliner editor of the ultraconservative Kayhan daily had also said in the summer that after "only two months" the United States and Europe will beg Iran to resume the negotiations and will surrender to Iran's terms.
The flawed argument was being used to justify Tehran’s hard position after 18 months of multilateral talks to revive the 2015 nuclear deal with the West, which would lift crippling sanctions imposed on Iran.
Hardline officials were making these claims while Europe needed natural gas, something Iran does not produce enough of to export and has no way of shipping it to Europe. On the contrary, Iran is suffering from a natural gas shortage this winter like every year. It shut down several cement factories this week only to save gas for homes.
Falahatpisheh, the former head of parliament's foreign policy and national security committee also criticized Iranian officials in an interview with the moderate conservative Khabar Online website, saying that "They are selling Iran's oil at a discounted price and still take pride in it."
The former lawmaker said that Iranian officials and hardliner commentators have been taken by surprise as their misplaced predictions in foreign policy did not come true.
Falahatpisheh also noted that while Iran counts on Russia as a "strategic ally," Russia has been selling oil at a discounted price, and Iran has no solution for its oil other than offering even more discounts than Russia. He added that Iranian officials take pride in selling oil despite US sanctions and call it a "victory", while what they are doing is wasting Iran's wealth to the tune of millions of dollars a day.
Tejarat (Commerce) Daily in Tehran quoted some oil market experts as saying that Iran has been lately selling its oil at the price of $37 per barrel while the market price for oil is around $79.25 per barrel. According to estimates, the production of every barrel of oil costs Iran nearly 30 dollars due to its aging equipment after years of token investments.
On the other hand, Iran's neighbor, Saudi Arabia invested some $82 billion in infrastructure in the past ten years to preserve its supremacy in the oil market.
Falahatpisheh in his interview argued that "Iran needs a new spirit in its foreign policy. In today's world only the countries are successful that have managed to reduce tensions with other countries." He suggested that Iran's first measure should be to settle differences with other countries and take serious steps toward détente. He said: "I believe the US and EU's current policies will not last forever. These policies are mainly meant to reduce Iran's bargaining power. However, the West will return to negotiations when and if they see that Iran has resolved its internal crisis and everyone, including all Iranian officials, are behaving in a way to serve the country's national interests."
Speaking at a press briefing, Blinken said the US was working alongside “the many countries that share our fundamental interests and values.” In the Middle East he cited Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Bahrain, Morocco, and Israel. Blinken extended “congratulations to Prime Minister [Benjamin] Netanyahu on announcing the formation of a new government.”
Netanyahu's relations with the Biden Administration was not as close as his friendship with former President Donald Trump and tension with Palestinians could spike because of the influence of religious parties in his government.
“Nato has never been stronger or more united,” Blinken said. “We doubled the number of battlegroups along Nato’s eastern flank…the Russian war machine is in dire straits.”
Both Iran and Russia, Blinken said, shunned diplomatic solutions. “We have to see some meaningful evidence that Russia is prepared to actually negotiate and negotiate,” he said.
Blinken acknowledged Iran had abided by its commitments under the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement, the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), until the US in 2018 left the JCPOA. But he attributed the failure of talks aimed at reviving the JCPOA solely to Iran not being “willing or able to do what’s necessary.”
With growing talk in Washington and Tel Aviv of a ‘military option’ against Iran, Blinken noted the challenges the US faced in downsizing its Middle Eastern military presence.
Marginal events, significant developments
David Barnea, head of Mossad, at the Israel’s intelligence agency awards Thursday, attacked the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement as “absurd” and looked forward to a government in Tehran that was as close to Israel as was the Pahlavi Shah before the 1979 Revolution.
A review of “significant regional developments…including the current situation in Iran” was the center of Friday’s virtual meeting between US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan with Israeli National Security Advisor Eyal Hulata, according to a White House statement. Given their “shared commitment to countering Iran’s threats to the region,” the officials “discussed the broad array of economic sanctions imposed in recent months against Iran” and “reviewed ongoing cooperation and exercises between the US military and Israel Defense Forces.”
Gabi Portnoy, an Israeli cybersecurity official, dismissed as a “marginal event” the hacking of Israeli security footage of a bombing in Jerusalem November – attributed to an Iranian hacktivist group ‘Moses Staff.’ In remarks reported by the Times of Israel Friday, Portnoy said Israel security agencies “didn’t do the minimum required.”
Artificial intelligence, unmanned vessels
In a press briefing Thursday, General Michael Kurilla, Commander of the US Central Command - which covers the Middle East and which has included Israel for a year – said adversaries would be combatted both by “values-based relationships” and the military use of artificial intelligence, including “unmanned systems...[like 100 naval] surface vessels and undersea vessels.”
The US had a “very strong military-to-military relationship” with Saudi Arabia, Kurilla said, exemplified by his discussion that morning with General Fayyad Al-Ruwaili, the Saudi chief of staff. Egypt, Kurilla noted, had a “large, modern, and powerful military” due in part to US training and equipping over 30 years.
“We’ve got to cultivate deep, abiding partnerships that can serve as a hedge against threats in the region while deterring Iran from its worst, most destructive behavior,” the CENTCOM commander said, as Tehran continued “to violate [US] sanctions,” and to “undermine regional security and stability through militia groups, ballistic missile capabilities, UAVs [unmanned aerial vehicles, or drones], and routine threats to international waterway.”
The crackdown on protesters in Zahedan, the provincial capital of Sistan-Baluchestan, known as the Bloody Friday, took place September 30, when security forces killed more than 80 people, including women and children.
During a meeting with the directors of Sunni religious schools of the province’s Coordination Council on Wednesday, December 21, Abdolhamid, the top religious leader of Iran's largely Sunni Baluch population living in the province, rejected the narrative of the regime about the tragic incident, saying that the Bloody Friday cannot be reduced to some errors by the security forces.
Underlining that the killing in Zahedan was “a premeditated plot,” he repeated his demands for the prosecution of the perpetrators of this massacre.
He also rejected statements by officials, including a delegation sent by Iran’s ruler Ali Khamenei in November, about protesters attacking a police station before security forces opened fire at them. He emphasized that security forces fired live ammunition at peaceful protesters in Zahedan, insisting that the attack was unprovoked.
"We have evidence that... the police station was not attacked at all and not even a single person went towards the police station. After people were shot at from the police station, some of them moved towards the police station, and pelted stones at the station,” he highlighted.
The claim that the police station was attacked by an armed gang is not true at all, he said, adding that not even one military officer was killed in the incident.
Abdolhamid said that the whole tragedy was a plot by the regime, noting that discrimination against Sunnis and Sunni mosques had already started in several cities before September 30. He added that “the governor of Mashhad had announced that he would not allow any Sunni prayer house to operate in his city. In Tehran, they said either bring a permit or we will close the prayer hall."
The Sunni cleric went on to explain that the main cause of such as incident is the "discrimination against Sunnis" in Iran, saying, "When the government discriminates against Sunnis and they are barred from holding any important positions in the armed forces and the judicial system, it is clear that officers beat our people mercilessly."
Officially known as Sheikh Abdolhamdid Esmailzehi, the Sunni cleric is widely popular because for his willingness to challenge Khamenei’s absolute authority. An audio file recently leaked by the hacktivist group Black Reward revealed that the Islamic Republic planned to tarnish Abdolhamid’s reputation to curb his influence. In November, the outspoken Sunni Imam said women, ethnic and religious groups, and minorities have faced discrimination after the establishment of the Islamic Republic in 1979. He has also called for an internationally monitored referendum in Iran saying by killing and suppression the government cannot push back a nation.