Iran International
Hundreds of thousands of Iranians have welcomed the same New Year Message tweeted by the former Crown Prince and several opposition figures as a sign of unity.
“In 2022, we witnessed the blossoming of unprecedented solidarity among Iranians of diverse backgrounds and beliefs,” tweets posted simultaneously on the eve of the new year by the former Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, footballer Ali Karimi, actor Golshifteh Farahani and activists Nazanin Bonyadi, Masih Alinejad and Hamed Esmaeilion said in Persian, in some cases accompanied by English versions.
“Through further solidarity and organizating, 2023 will be the year of victory for the Iranian nation, and the achievement of freedom and justice in Iran,” the tweets said.
Some other prominent figures such as Iran's Peace Nobel Laureate Shirin Ebadi and many activists have also shown support by sharing the same greeting message on their social media.
The greeting messages have received a total of around 400,000 likes, thousands of positive comments and been retweeted extensively since the posts were published although some social media users have not been as enthusiastic.
Given the regime’s policy of silencing voices of dissent, many Iranians who are fighting on the streets to topple the regime have invested their hopes for a leadership to emerge for their ‘revolution’ with an eye on influential opposition figures abroad who can represent them in the international community.
Accordingly, many Iranians have been incessantly urging opposition figures to join forces to provide leadership to Iran's hitherto ‘leaderless revolution.’
“This was a great move by the Crown Prince, Masih and others,” a young man in Tehran who since the very beginning of the protest movement has been fighting the regime security forces on the streets, and on social media, told Iran International.
“The regime has always tried to divide the opposition to conquer, but this move neutralizes their efforts and can help unite the supporters of individual figures who have shown solidarity with their New Year greeting. Unity is our key to victory [against the regime],” he added.
Many allege that posing as ‘revolutionaries’ and supporters of opposition figures, the cyber-army of the Islamic Republic is trying more than ever to divide the opposition and supporters of influential figures abroad such as the former Crown Prince and Hamed Esmaeilion by muddying the waters with fake news, negative commenting, making accusations, and aggressively attacking those perceived as rivals.
The former Crown Prince said at a press conference in late October that “supporting the movement inside the country and cooperation [between those] in Iran and abroad” was the most important requirement for success against the regime and that the opposition had to send a united message to the international community.
The warm welcome this first sign of solidarity among diaspora opposition figures has received needs to be followed up by more concrete messages of unity. “A joint [-ly prepared] tweet for the new western year may be a positive political performance but is not necessarily a [sign of] a ‘coalition’,” Elahe Boghrat, chief editor of the London-based Kayhan warned in a tweet.
New York-based sociologist Majid Mohammadi told Iran International that the short greeting message posted with coordination was a harbinger that the opposition could organize and unite in the future. People expect those who issued this coordinated message to create bodies to support their revolutionary movement legally, logistically, and intellectually to help it focus on its goals and move forward.
Hassan Beheshtipour, an Iranian international relations analyst, told Nameh News website in Tehran that there is no positive indication for the resumption of talks over reviving the 2015 nuclear deal, known as JCPOA. He was responding to a question about the possible outcome of Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian's recent visit to Oman in a bid to use its Arab neighbor as a mediator with the US.
The analyst argued although Iran claims that the West has been sending secret messages to Tehran, open-source information show that the West is not interested in resuming the negotiations. He added that the West is mainly waiting to see where the ongoing protests in Iran are headed.
Beheshtipour said despite criticism that the Iranian government does not tie people’s financial hardship the JCPOA and sanctions, Tehran has reached the conclusion that a deal would the most important factor in improving Iran's economy.
Meanwhile, Foreign policy analyst Kourosh Ahmadi told Entekhab News website that Iran's position about Russia's war in Ukraine has changed Europe's stance regarding Tehran. He added that Russia's use of Iranian drones in attacks on civilian targets in Ukraine has left a negative impression on public opinion in Europe and has toughened Europe's stances toward Iran.
Ahmadi added that the negative trend in relations has led Europeans to minimize the importance of trade with Iran which was previously among Europe's priorities. Ahmadi added that the ongoing nationwide protests have also affected Europe's stance on Iran.
The analyst argued that Europe has even adopted a tougher stance toward Iran than the United States, because Tehran has not grasped Ukraine's importance for Europeans and the fact that Ukraine is only 500 kilometers from Germany. He said: "That is why the spokesman for the German Foreign Ministry has said that Germany has no reason to support the continuation of talks with Iran.
Ahmadi said Europeans are extremely sensitive to the fact that Iran is Russia's partner in threatening Europe’s security. He pointed out that in 2011 the volume of transactions between Iran and Europe reached 28 billion euros. The figure dropped by 78 percent in 2020 and finally reached to just over one billion euros in the first six months of 2022.
In another development, Iranian sociologist Bijan Abdolkarimi has said in an interview with Rouydad24 website that "Iran is entangled in a political impasse and Iran's power-house is currently under pressure both from abroad and from within the country."
Abdolkarimi added that the Iranian people are the main victims of this political impasse while the regime has no solutions.
Asked if a possible improvement in the economic situation would reduce the general sense of dissatisfaction among Iranians, Abdolkarimi said: "I cannot answer this question properly because the situation is getting worse on a day-to-day basis. In fact, we are facing an economic collapse in Iran for which officials cannot offer any solution."
He added that the only solution is a return to the JCPOA, but in the current situation reaching an agreement is practically impossible.
Some observers, including a commentary in the leading reformist newspaper Etemad asked whether Rouhani has started a gamble to ensure his political comeback by returning to newspaper headlines after several months. The daily also pointed out in the commentary entitled "Rouhani's rough path to a comeback," that his comments have triggered radical attacks by Iran's conservatives.
Entekhab News, a centrist news outlet close to Rouhani quoted him on December 28 as saying: "I have conveyed some suggestions to the Supreme Leader both in writing and over the phone." Meanwhile, Sara Massoumi, a senior journalist in the reformist daily Etemad on the same date quoted Rouhani as saying: "Some people think that interaction with other countries will lead to infiltration into the Iranian political system. This is not true. It is isolation that leads to infiltration." He added: “In my government we worked hard to keep the JCPOA alive regardless of many attacks on us. We saved the JCPOA by freezing it. The current government could have benefitted from the JCPOA if it wanted to."
According to Etemad, although Rouhani has been silent during the past 18 months except for sending occasional condolence messages, members of the government and other hardliners in Iran often blame him for the country's current problems. Others say that attacks on Rouhani are in fact conservatives’ way of supporting Raisi who is often criticized for his government's weak performance and the deteriorating economic situation.
During the past week, some Iranian politicians suggested that Rouhani might be willing to take part in the parliamentary elections in early 2024. Meanwhile Rouhani and other Iranian politicians have been under pressure by hardliners to support the government and the entire Iranian political system which has been under attack by protesters.
As part of those pressures, Raisi said earlier this week: "Many political figures and regime insiders failed to fulfil their responsibility during the protests." The conservatives reminded that Rouhani's silence is in contrast with his position during the 2019 protests when as president he called for identifying and punishing those who protested to a sudden hike in the price of gasoline.
However, Rouhani's meeting with his former cabinet ministers and aides on December 26 indicated that he is looking for a political comeback with an eye on the impact of the ongoing protests.
During the meeting he extensively talked about the role of women in Iran and their status in Islam. In the same meeting, he also spoke about the JCPOA and how Iran could have benefitted from it had the current government not opposed a deal. Both subjects were likely aimed at bringing Rouhani back to the headlines, and they did.
Nonetheless, although Rouhani tried to appease Khamenei in his remarks, hardliners launched an immediate attack on him saying that his remarks about women showed his liberal views against Islam. Iranian hardliners use the word "liberal" as an insult rather than a political label. Hard-line Mashregh News close to Iranian security forces even said that Rouhani's views were a deviation from the Islamic Republic's official rhetoric.
Farda News, another conservative outlet close to parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf accused Rouhani of "distorting the truth" and "trying to portray the Raisi administration as a weak government only to conceal his own government's weakness."
Rouhani's possible response to these critics will show if he is really interested in a political comeback.