Some Iran Conservatives Call for A Swift Change in Foreign Policy
Some Iranian ‘moderate conservative’ politicians suggest that Iran should act to compensate for the damage and isolation caused by a problematic foreign policy.
Some Iranian ‘moderate conservative’ politicians suggest that Iran should act to compensate for the damage and isolation caused by a problematic foreign policy.
Correcting Iran's policy regarding Russia's war in Ukraine, by adopting a neutral stance, is a recurrent suggestion.
As the European parliament overwhelmingly voted to support the designation of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, the IRGC, as a terrorist organization, University lecturer and former housing minister Abbas Akhoundi suggested that Tehran should enter transparent and direct talks with the EU to shed light on its positions about the war in Ukraine.
In fact, Tehran has tried several times to whitewash its support for Russia in the Ukraine war and the deployment of its drones to Russia, but no one even in Iran has accepted the regime’s claims of neutrality, as evidence about the destructive role of Iranian drones in attacks on civilian targets is damning.
Meanwhile, Akhoundi said that Russia should not drag Iran into a war it is not a part of. He further maintained that Iran's involvement in the war in Ukraine is the main cause of rising tensions between Tehran and the European Union. The resulting adverse impact on the suspended nuclear talks cannot be compensated, Akhoundi said, adding that resolving the controversy about Iran's role in the Ukraine war is even more urgent than trying to revive the 2015 nuclear deal known as the JCPOA.
He added that leaving behind this crisis needs a level of intelligence which is beyond the Iranian government's capacity. He said this comes while some members of the European Parliaments have questioned the legitimacy of the Islamic Republic. This, Akhoundi said, will prepare the world's public opinion for any action against Iran.
He argued that aggressive responses by some Iranian officials plays into the hands of “warmongers” in Europe. Akhoundi was possibly referring to IRGC general and Iranian lawmaker Esmail Kowsari's threats against Europe in case the EU lists the IRGC as a terrorist organization.
Akhoundi said that as a result of a failing foreign policy, Iran lags behind its development plans, international trade has been disrupted, inflation is beyond control and poverty can be seen everywhere while the society in on the verge of collapse.
Former lawmaker Ali Motahari had also earlier criticized Iran's foreign policy which he said was marked by over-reliance on Russia and China and called for an improvement in Iran's ties with the West. He told Sharq newspaper on Wednesday that "Iran's involvement in the war in Ukraine is the main problem that has ruined Iran's relations with Europe.”
Motahari added: "Iran's involvement in the war in Ukraine has prompted the UK parliament as well as the European Parliament to follow an anti-Islamic-Republic policy, as the war in Ukraine has generally affected the security of the entire European continent."
Mehdi Ayati, another political observer also said that Iran's problems will not be solved as long as Tehran is not determined to communicate with the world. Because of Iran's ideological foreign policy, it would have not made any difference even if reformist Mohammad Khatami was president, instead of the ultraconservative Ebrahim Raisi.
Ayati characterized the current situation as a foreign relations impasse which will not be resolved before Iran proves to be genuinely interested in a reproachment. He added that Iran's main problem is mismanagement, not sanctions. Pointing out Iran's foreign policy crisis, Ayati charged that "unfortunately, some Iranian officials' actions and rhetoric widen the gap between Iran and the world community.”
Video footage from the December 29 inauguration ceremony of the new governor of the southeastern province, IRGC Brigadier General Mohammad Karami, contains parts of a speech by Supreme Leader’s representative Mostafa Mahami, and some lawmakers.
Mahami who also serves as the Shiite Friday Imam in the Sunni majority province capital, Zahedan, is seen in the video criticizing the government of President Ebrahim Raisi for economic hardships resulting from high inflation.
“Is it weakness [of the government], or God forbid, we are facing the mafia [of profiteers], or the ministers and authorities cannot stand against these mafias,” he said.
“I told the president that all governments have craftily made rosy reports, but we need to see the outcome in people’s subsistence,” Mahami said while asking officials to tell him that people’s problems will not be solved by mere “talking therapy” and saying things should happen without taking action.
Mahami also strongly criticized the foreign ministry for failing to resolve the dispute with the Taliban over Iran's share of the waters of Helmand (Hirmand in Persian) and revival of the Afghan-Iranian 1973 water treaty.
“The foreign ministry has been extremely useless in pursuing Sistan’s share of the waters,” he said. “You rattle sabers for the US but don’t have what it takes to secure your rights from Afghanistan?” he asked.
Tehran has for decades complained about not always receiving its fair share of the water. In 1999, for instance, the Taliban turned off the flow completely. In August 2021, a Taliban spokesman dismissed as "enemy propaganda" reports and a video circulating on social media showing waters flowing from the Kamal Khan Dam towards Iran, insisting the water was not for Iran.
Sistan is the northern, Shiite majority part of the province while Baluchestan refers to the southern, Sunni majority part. The province has suffered heavily from draught and seen hundreds of villages abandoned in the past two decades.
The new governor, Karami, who served as the commander of IRGC Ground Forces in southeastern Iran replaced Hossein Modarres Khiabani following the escalation of protests in the Sunni majority areas and particularly its capital Zahedan.
The Sunni Baluch population have taken to the streets in Zahedan and several other cities of the province every Friday after prayers since September 30 when government forces cracked down on protesters after prayers led by the popular cleric Mowlavi Abdolhamid in Zahedan and killed more than 80 protesters.
This week locals have reported extra heavy security measures in Zahedan including check points on all roads leading to the city and around Makki Mosque where Abdolhamid delivers his fiery speeches every Friday to thousands of Sunnis, presumably in preparation for stopping the flow of worshippers to the mosque this Friday.
In his sermons Abdolhamid has protested to the “mass arrests on the streets” and accused the authorities of torturing detainees until they accept crimes that they never committed. He has also said he holds Khamenei responsible for the violence against Sunni Baluchis and other protesters.
The province, Iran's least developed where around two-thirds of the population live in extreme poverty, is located on a drug trafficking route from neighboring Afghanistan and is known for one of the highest counts of executions in the country which are often related to drug trafficking.
According to Baluch activists one-third of over 500 executions in the country in 2022 involved people of Baluch ethnicity.
When the administration of President Ebrahim Raisi submitted the substantially enlarged draft state budget last week, it was apparent that the government has come up with plans to depend more on tax revenues instead of oil income. But now that the parliament has started reviewing the bill, it has become clearer that the administration plans to outsource most of its oil sales to military and religious organs.
In the budget bill for the next Iranian year, which starts March 21, the government has granted new permits to some departments such as the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Islamic Republic and Astan Quds Razavi -- the Mashhad-based custodian and the administrative organization which managing a major religious shrine -- as well as a number pension funds to sell oil products on behalf of the government and earn some of the income.
According to the Note 1 of the bill – titled “Oil and its relations with the government” -- the National Iranian Oil Company is obligated to deliver “crude oil and gas condensates” to entities introduced by the executive bodies. As per the new measures, the General Staff of the Armed Forces is given the authority to sell and refine oil up to €4.5 billion. It means that the Armed forces can give crude oil to refineries and receive products that should be exported.
According to legal experts, this move, which also exists in a limited way in the current year’s budget, violates the constitution. This year, the government gave this permission to some individuals under the general title of "persons approved by executive bodies". The parliament had approved to give €3.5 billion of crude oil “to individuals” to sell on the world market and give the proceeds to the military. Last February, the Revolutionary Guard also received $80 million of oil from the government to sell as an additional budget appropriation. It also remains unclear who and under what conditions will export the oil amid US sanctions. Many members of Iran's hardliner dominated parliament are former members of the IRGC.
Sirous Omidvar, an Economics professor at the Allameh Tabatabai University, told Tejarat News that the legal details of such a mechanism are unclear and such economic handouts exclude ordinary business people. He predicts that such a mechanism is expected to lead to corruption.
A well-publicized scandal broke in 2013 when authorities arrested Babak Zanjani, a businessman, for embezzling at least $2.7 billion from illicit oil sales during international sanctions from 2009-2013. Zanjani used companies affiliated with the Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) for the oil he exported, leading to speculations that well-connected officials had a stake in the scheme. He received the death penalty which has so far not been carried out.
The draft budget is based on 1.4 million barrels of oil exports per day, despite US sanctions, an increase from the current reported figure of 800 thousand barrels. The discrepancy between reality and budget estimates gets even more interesting as the government expects to sell each barrel of oil for $85, while Iran is reportedly selling its oil to China at half that amount. The government estimate would mean more than $43 billion in oil revenues from March 2023 to March 2024. However, the official website of the government, IRNA, emphasized that the exact figure of crude exports is confidential and would not be announced due to the sanctions.
The projected oil exports in the budget are the clearest sign of unrealistic revenue estimates that will not materialize unless Iran resolves its differences with the United States over its nuclear program.
The government being aware that its oil revenue estimates are not realistic, it has substantially increased tax collection projections. In July, the Supreme Accounting Office released a report covering the period March 21- May 20 showing that except tax revenues, all other major sources of income grossly underperformed. The government’s revenues from taxes, oil exports, customs duties, etc. totaled 880 trillion rials or about $3.5 billion (average free market exchange rate at the time) in the 60-day period. This was just 37 percent of the projected budget revenues. It is important to note that only 15 percent of the projected oil income was collected.