Iranian Experts Concerned About Russia Dragging Iran Into War
Commentators and former officials in Iran are increasingly warning about Tehran’s close cooperation with Moscow and its impact on the country’s isolation.
Commentators and former officials in Iran are increasingly warning about Tehran’s close cooperation with Moscow and its impact on the country’s isolation.
Former head of Iranian parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Committee Heshmatollah Falahatpish told local media: "If it were not for the issue of sending Iranian drones to Russia to be used in the war in Ukraine, Europe was highly unlikely to ratify a resolution against Iran."
Falahatpisheh, who is one of the few domestic critics still allowed to speak to print media, further said he is worried that Iran might become the second front in Russia's war against Ukraine.
The conservative pundit explained that Europe and the United States had agreed [in March 2022] on two matters – Iran upholding its nuclear commitments and the West reducing sanctions imposed, but at the last moment Russian negotiator Mikhail Ulyanov said that Russia cannot take part in implementing the agreement because of US sanctions on Moscow.
"Later Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that Russia would sign the agreement only if all of Russia's nuclear, trade, and military dealings with Iran are exempted from the sanctions. This led to an impasse and the talks were suspended," Falahatpisheh said.
Meanwhile, in an interview with moderate proreform Rouydad24 website, Falahatpisheh charged that some Iranian officials behave in a way as if they are paid to speak against Iran's national interests.
He added that "Statements made by a group of people who have no knowledge of foreign policy have only led to a catalogue of threats against Iran." He was probably referring to individuals such as ultraconservative presidential aide Saeed Jalili and his likeminded allies in the parliament particularly ultraconservative Paydary Party members who staunchly oppose the revival of the 2015 nuclear deal or effectively any agreement with the United States.
Meanwhile, accusing the Islamic Republic of weakening the political elites, Falahatpisheh charged that "Some of Iran's politicians have no proper definition of the government and mainly believe in running the country's affairs like a militia. They have no understanding of the concepts of government, development, international relations, détente, international economy and other political concepts. They do not care what will happen to the next generation of Iranians as a result of Iran's isolation. And that is dangerous."
Falahatpisheh argued that many of the sanctions against Iran are the outcome of such a political approach. "While Iran owns two third of the Persian Gulf waterways and it should naturally attach high importance to the waterway's security, some members of parliament and others threaten to close the Strait of Hormuz. The current situation of Iran and its isolation is a legacy of this kind of grandstanding."
He also said that measures such as sending drones to Russia leads to the IRGC being listed as a terrorist organization in the West rather than the Russian army.
In a related development, Ahmad Bakhshayesh, another former member of parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Committee said in similar remarks that "The Iranian government believes creating a foreign enemy will lead to solidarity inside the country.”
Referring to the recent drone attack on a military installation in Esfahan, Bakhshayesh said: "Benjamin Netanyahu creates foreign crises as a way of dealing with political divisions inside Israel." Meanwhile, he charged that "the attack was done by Israel from the Republic of Azerbaijan as part of Israel's confrontation with Iran as a country that harasses Israel by its presence in the Golan Heights and its support of the Lebanese Hizballah."
Bakhshayesh added that Iran has recently armed [its proxy groups] in the West Bank, in an area only 15 kilometers away from Israel. He characterized this action as "creating permanent tension" in that region.
Ebrahim Fayyaz, a professor of sociology at the University of Tehran, said in an interview with Rouydad24 website that enmity with “knowledge and particularly humanities” has made academic and research institutions useless. He said the demographic situation in Iran has made it difficult for the country's rulers to keep the society under control, and it is going to be even more difficult as we go further.
As an example, he said: "We did not consider the rules of the global game when we started to sell drones to Russia. As a result, Russia took advantage of us because our foreign minister did not know how to protect the country’s interests."
Iran has supplied hundreds of kamikaze drones to Russia which have been used against Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure, angering the United States and Europe.
Fayyaz warned that there is no room for trial and error in International diplomacy, but this is what Iran is doing constantly. He said: "We should have defined our foreign policy with the help of the academia. But unfortunately, our government does not want to interact with the universities. Our officials want to talk. They do not want to listen to others."
"Under the circumstances," he said, "the university does not have anything to do with the government, and the government does not take the universities seriously. The government thinks that thanks to the oil money at its disposal, it no longer needs the university. This situation pushes the universities into the opposition's lap."
Fayyaz also criticized the state television for dictating the official views to the interviewees and asking them to repeat the party line. He said: "The rulers should follow men of knowledge and not vice versa." He added: I have been barred from appearing on TV because I wanted to say what I think, not what the government wants me to say.
Fayyaz's statements was so similar to what some Economists such as Moreza Ezzati, who has said, "public interest is not a priority for the government," and politicians such as former lawmaker Gholam Ali Jafarzadeh Imanabadi who regrets that "There are no wise and educated individuals around President Ebrahim Raisi."
Imanabadi has recently charged in an interview with Nameh News that the Iranian President has given big jobs in his cabinet to day dreamers and naïve individuals. Instead, he has removed a lot of wise, highly skilled, expert and well-educated individuals from their posts.
"The situation will be like this as long as national interests are not among the priorities of top officials and they make their decisions based on their biases and grudges and give opportunities to radical elements devoid of wisdom," Imanabadi argued.
"The only thing these officials can do is criticize former officials and blame them for all the problems that have been created recently." He added: "Even the Taleban in Afghanistan have realized that they need to talk with America if they want to solve their problems, but Iranian officials ignore obvious realities. At the same time, they fabricate their own figures to pretend that the country is on the course of progress. Raisi recently made so many claims…all contradicting the Central Bank and the Statistical Center's official figures."
Stating that general dissatisfaction in Iran is at a record level, Imanabadi said that Raisi should set aside factional differences and bring back the experts to the government. Referring to Raisi's frequent analogy about the "train of progress," Imanabadi said: "Where is this train? It either does not have a driver to steer it, or it has been derailed."
In a note published by the reformist Etemad newspaper Monday, Rabiei said one must examine economic indices with a gender-based bias to understand why women are such a strong driving force in the current protests.
He pointed out that the rate of women’s participation in Iran’s economy has never exceeded 17 percent compared with 60 percent for men, whereas the global average for women stands at 50 percent, adding that the rate which stood at 12 percent in 2014 climbed to 17.6 percent in 2018, the highest in the past two decades.
Rabiei added that unfortunately this modest gain was wiped out in the past three years, mainly because of the COVID pandemic and women’s economic participation now stands at 13 percent. “One of the country’s fundamental problems is that women’s health and education has improved but there have not been opportunities for women to expand their role in the economy and politics.
Around 25 percent of Iranian women over the age of eighteen have higher education.
“This means that women have achieved social status but have not had the opportunity to participate and faced barriers. The same applies to the middle class,” he wrote.
“Undoubtedly a section of those demanding change in the recent protests belong to this group,” Rabiei said and opined that the feminine character of the protests can be the outcome of inequality that bars women from accessing economic opportunities.
But the issue for many women is not just jobs, as they understand that there is systemic discrimination against them and lack of social freedoms. After all, the protests did not ignite because of economic demands, but for the freedom to walk in public free of the Islamic dress code.
Hardliners generally define the role of women in society first and foremost as mothers and wives. In his speeches, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei often tells women to marry early and have children. He has also insisted, on many occasions, that wearing the hijab does not limit women’s social role and their careers.
“One of the greatest mistakes of western thinking about the issue of [the role of] women is this gender equality... Why should women be asked to carry out tasks [fit for men]? What is the glory in having women carry out tasks [fit for] men? I am sorry that sometimes women themselves are sensitive about this issue,” he said in a speech in April 2014.
“The main issue with respect to women's emancipation in the West is dragging women from home to the factory, using them as cheap labor,” he said in a recent speech in which he insisted men and women have equal rights in Islam but different roles and that women's primary and most important duty is being mothers and wives, that is, their role as housewives.
With Khamenei’s backing, hardliners battled fiercely to prevent the government of President Hassan Rouhani from implementing the UN’s 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, particularly its Goal 5 regarding eradication of discrimination against women and their empowerment.
Hardliners held rallies to protest the government’s plans to implement the UN guidelines and even tried to smear Rouhani during his reelection campaign in 2017 by claiming that the guidelines included immoral things such as “teaching students about homosexuality”.
Ensieh Khazali, Vice President for Women and Family Affairs, said last week that the UN 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development is now being implemented but certain parts would be modified according to the government’s own views regarding their appropriateness.
Many have strongly criticized Khazali for her unverified claim about the implementation of the UN guidelines during a live televised debate with her reformist predecessor Masoumeh Ebtekar. Critics say the reason for hardliners’ objection to the implementation of the guidelines was their political rivalry with Rouhani.
Bank Melli Iran, known as the first national and commercial retail bank of Iran, has recently published an advertorial on its financial statements for the first six months of the Iranian year (started March 21, 2022) as a way to promulgate its achievements and advertise the conduct of its manager, Mohammad-Reza Farzin who was recently appointed the governor of the Central Bank of Iran (CBI).
In February 2022, Farzin had claimed that the accumulated losses of the bank fell from $2.3 billion to $2.2 billion (based on exchange rate at the time) with him at the helm.
However, according to the 99-page report, the accumulated losses of the bank increased again in 2022 to roughly $2.5 billion.
Despite these losses, by late July of last year, the bank had paid over 182 trillion rials (roughly about $600 million) of loans to individuals and companies abroad. The figure was about 20 trillion rials in the previous year. Considering the sanctions and the lack of access to SWIFT banking system, it seems that these funds are mostly related to countries like Venezuela, Syria and Lebanon, wrote economic journalist Hirsh Saidian in an article published on Aftab News on Saturday. The report said that from March to July about 18 trillion rials – or about $60 million – was paid to a small bank called the Federal Bank of Lebanon, which seems to be under US sanctions.
The bank has not yet confirmed or denied this issue, nor provided any details about the recipients of the funds. In addition to lack of transparency in the country’s banking system, the government has been criticized for giving free aid to projects in Hezbollah-controlled southern Lebanon and Houthi-controlled parts of Yemen despite high inflation and lack of investment in Iran's own domestic projects.
Lebanese media reported late in December that Hezbollah is facing financial problems due to the current protests across Iran, as it cannot import Iranian goods to sell at a discount to its supporters. Makram Rabah, a Lebanese political activist, emphasized in an interview with Iran International that the consequences of the uprising of Iranians against the regime could now be seen in Lebanon. He said the dire situation of the Islamic Republic, as the biggest financial and political supporter of Hezbollah, causes this group to lose the ability to stand on its own feet.
The Bank Melli report did not elaborate on why and how a bank with such a huge amount of loss is still providing loans to entities linked with its proxy forces in the region. The report provides a rare glimpse into the opaque workings of Iranian banks, which usually serve the foreign and domestic policies of the Islamic Republic.
Moreover, some experts have claimed that the accumulated loss of the bank is actually 2 quadrillion rials (over $6 billion), which has been the result of years of corruption, mismanagement and giving loans to influential people and projects without economic justification, the article added. Such losses have caused banks to rely more on the resources of the central bank, making it print money that fuels the over 50-percent inflation rate.