Opinion Survey Reveals Overwhelming Majority Rejecting Iran’s Regime
An opinion survey involving 158,000 people in Iran showed that more than 80 percent of respondents reject the Islamic Republic and prefer a democratic government.
An opinion survey involving 158,000 people in Iran showed that more than 80 percent of respondents reject the Islamic Republic and prefer a democratic government.
The Netherlands-based Gamaan institute conducted the survey from December 21-31, which also included a sample of 42,000 respondents in the diaspora, revealed very similar attitudes between those in the country and abroad.
“In response to the question “Islamic Republic: Yes or No?” 81% of respondents inside the country responded “No” to the Islamic Republic, 15% responded “Yes,” and 4% were not sure. Of the Iranian respondents abroad, 99% responded “No,” opting against the Islamic Republic,” GAMAAN reported.
In a follow-up question for those who answered “No”, the survey asked about their preferred democratic and secular alternative political system. Of those, 28% inside Iran and 32% outside Iran would prefer a presidential republic, 12% inside Iran and 29% outside Iran would prefer a parliamentary republic, and 22% inside Iran and 25% outside Iran would prefer a constitutional monarchy.
In a press release shared with Iran International, GAMAAN explained that "This survey was conducted online using a specialized and secure platform." Given the inaccessible nature of the country, Gamaan used a special online tool to reach respondents in Iran through diverse channels, to eliminate chance of selective targeting and include as much of a representative sample as possible.
But GAMAAN does explain that it “uses digital tools and different methods to extract the (real) opinions of Iranians about (sensitive) social and political topics. The rationale for GAMAAN’s innovative approach is the fact that conventional survey methods cannot yield valid results in the existing Iranian context.” It also ran reliability comparisons with available data and other surveys.
Regarding the antigovernment protests since mid-September, 80% of those inside the country support the movement; 67% believe the protests will succeed, while 14% think they will not succeed. Around 15% of the population inside the country oppose the protests. Respondents outside the country overwhelmingly support the protests; of these, 90% think they will succeed, and only 9% think they will not succeed.
Responses to multiple questions confirm a general view shared by many observers that the clerical regime in Iran enjoys a 10-15 percent support in the country.
While 60 percent of respondents inside Iran describe themselves as proponents of regime change as a pre-condition for any meaningful change, only 6 percent support gradual reforms and 11 percent support the principles of the Islamic Republic.
Another result that confirms reporting by Iran International and others was the lack of support for Iran’s football (soccer) team in the 2022 World Cup. About half of the respondents in Iran and abroad “state that they feel happy that the soccer team of the Islamic Republic of Iran lost against the United States’ team. In contrast, 23% of those in the country and 8% of those outside report having felt sad about the game’s outcome.”
The survey revealed that 85 percent of respondents in Iran who support the protests agree with the formation of a so-called solidarity council, or opposition council comprising prominent activists of various political orientation to assume the leading role in the campaign against the Islamic Republic. Nearly 60 percent expect the council to form a transition council and a provisional government. Respondents name around 20 prominent figures in Iran and abroad as candidates for this council.
Prince Reza Pahlavi, Ali Daei, Ali Karimi, Hamed Esmaeilion, Hossein Ronaghi, Nazanin Boniadi, Fatemeh Sepehri, Masih Alinejad, Nasrin Sotoudeh, Toomaj Salehi, Narges Mohammadi, Molavi Abdolhamid, Golshifteh Farahani are the top candidates picked by respondents.
Remarkably, 73 percent inside the country believe that Western countries should defend the protestors’ rights by seriously pressuring Tehran. Of the Iranian respondents outside the country, 96% support this view. In contrast, around 19% of respondents inside the country think that Western powers should not intervene, as the protests are an internal matter.
Also, “a majority of 70% agree with Western governments proscribing the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organization, expelling the ambassadors of the Islamic Republic, allowing international foreign intervention to protect protestors, sanctioning officials who played a role in suppressing the protests, and seizing Iran’s property and assets to cut the government’s access to them,” Gamaan says.
Note: In the original version of this article, a mistaken statement was published saying that the methodology of the survey was not fully clear. After further investigation paragraph 5 was amended.
Many Iranian dissident figures and foreign officials have expressed outrage and concern over his deteriorating health condition. A photo of Meysami along with a letter from Rajaei-Shahr prison in Karaj were published on social media Thursday, showing him in a horrible state after losing weight.
According to his lawyer, the 53-year-old prisoner of conscience, who has been in jail since 2018 for supporting women activists protesting against the mandatory Islamic dress code – or hijab -- began his hunger strike on October 7 to protest recent government killings of demonstrators.
"My client Farhad Meysami’s life is in danger,” tweeted lawyer Mohammad Moghimi. "He went on hunger strike to protest the recent government killings in the streets," he said, adding that Meysami had lost 52 kg (115 lb). Images of Meysami show him curled up on what looks like a hospital bed, and another standing, his ribs protruding.
In reaction to the photos, Washington's special envoy for Iran Robert Malley tweeted, "Shocking images of Dr. Farhad Meysami, a brave advocate for women's rights who has been on hunger strike in prison.” "Iran's regime has unjustly denied him and thousands of other political prisoners their rights and their freedom. Now it unjustly threatens his life."
German politician Hannah Neumann, who is serving as a Member of the European Parliament, said, “We have to throw a lifeline to people such as Farhad Meysami, not to the IRGC terrorists or the current regime,” referring to the European Union’s decision not to greenlight a recent resolution by the parliament that has called for the designation of the Revolutionary Guard as a terror outfit.
Canada-based activist Hamed Esmaeilion who has so far organized several rounds of worldwide protest rallies against the Islamic Republic, said that Meysami and many others do not belong in prison. He added that the regime is responsible for his life.
Esmaeilion’s wife and daughter were killed in 2020 when Iran’s Revolutionary Guard fired two missiles at a Ukrainian jetliner taking off from Tehran and all 176 people onboard died in the crash.
Women’s rights activists Masih Alinejad highlighted, “To those who think Iran’s uprising is over and Iranians have given up, behold the enormous courage of political prisoner Farhad Meysami. He’s been on a four-month hunger strike against the execution of political prisoners and forced hejab (hijab). Iranians knows that history is one our side.”
Sportsman-cum-civil rights activist Ali Karimi said, "Maysami 's photos are shocking. Images similar to the Nazis' Auschwitz crimes. This is the death camp of the Islamic Republic. Mullah’s regime is a shame for humanity."
Exiled prince Reza Pahlavi also reacted to the photos, saying “The emaciated body of Farhad Meysami is another symbol of the boundless cruelty of the Islamic regime.
He should stay alive and enjoy a free Iran in the future with his skin and flesh; an Iran where no one is imprisoned or forced to go on a hunger strike because of their beliefs and opinions, Pahlavi wrote in a tweet. “I believe that these days, which are more bitter than poison will pass,” he added, alluding to Meysami’s letter.
In his letter from prison, Maysami announced that he plans to make the water he drinks bitter for the next 10 days as a symbolic move against "these times that are more bitter than poison" that the Iranian government has created for "everyone in all aspects".
The political activist also wrote that “I will still insist on my three demands of stopping the execution of protesters, releasing six political-civil prisoners, and stopping forced-hijab harassment.” "I will continue my impossible mission in the hope that it may become possible later on with a collective effort,” he wrote. The title of the political activist's letter is "For the days of suffering and suffering and suffering".
Meysami also went on a hunger strike in May in protest to the possible execution of Ahmadreza Jalali (Djalali), a Swedish-Iranian dual national scientist taken hostage since 2016 who was under the threat of execution last year.
Iran has been rocked by nationwide unrest following the death of Iranian Kurdish woman Mahsa Amini on September 16 in hijab police custody, posing one of the strongest challenges to the Islamic Republic since the 1979 revolution. Women have played a prominent role in the uprising, many of them waving or burning their headscarves. Rights groups say more than 500 protesters have been killed and nearly 20,000 arrested. At least four people have been hanged, according to the Iranian judiciary.
Moderate Aftab News website reported that the lawmakers were going around in the parliament (Majles) on January 31, gathering signatures in support of the motion. However, those who support the idea do their best to conceal their identity before the motion is tabled at the Majles.
The website said that the lawmakers appear to fear reactions by Raisi and other ultraconservatives to what they are doing. Nonetheless, their names cannot be kept a secret for long. Aftab News said that they even refused to talk to reporters about the motion that signifies their dissatisfaction about Raisi's performance.
Others at the Majles, including hardliner Mohsen Pirhadi told Aftab News that questioning the president about his performance is not wrong and is part of the parliament's supervisory mandate.
It appears that some cabinet ministers' manoeuvres to evade impeachment pushed the President into the questioning trap. After all, Raisi was the one who did his best to prevent the impeachments regardless of lawmakers' complaints about several cabinet ministers' inefficiency, wrote Aftab News.
Although lawmakers appear to be more determined this time to question Raisi, the website said that it is unlikely most deputies would vote for the motion. Meanwhile, Lawmaker Ahmad Alireza Beigi said he does not believe that Majles would take such a step. However, he said that first, cabinet ministers should be impeached and then if the plan for impeachment does not go ahead smoothly, the lawmakers can question Raisi.
Meanwhile, a Khabar Online website report on February 1 said lawmakers are planning to question Raisi on 6 grounds. According to the website, this is the second call for questioning Raisi during the past 8 months. The first time, only two lawmakers signed the motion. According to the law, at least a quarter of the 290 lawmakers at the Majles need to sign a questioning motion if it is going to go any further.
According to Khabar Online, if the motion progresses this time, the lawmakers will ask questions about "the chaotic situation of the forex market and failing to issue electronic coupons to provide essential commodities to the nation."
Khabar Online quoted one of the unnamed lawmakers who was collecting signatures in support of the motion as having said some of his peers have welcomed the idea of questioning the President, but some others are too scared to sign the request for the motion."
In April last year, Lawmaker Mostafa Hosseini Ghotbabadi had even said that lawmakers have called for designating the president as incompetent, a motion that kicked out Iran's first President Abolhassan Banisadr in June 1981.
Raisi has been most recently criticized for feeding the nation with false information and fabricated statistics about his achievements during a televised interview earlier this week. During the past months the figures he presented about inflation, employment and economic growth were seriously challenged by the media and even by hardliner newspapers published by the IRGC.
The media have been questioning Raisi's performance in the areas of housing, employment and controlling prices. The most important point made against Raisi's figures is that while the official inflation rate in January was 51 percent, He still insists that it is no higher than 40 percent.
Iran’s currency, rial has fallen to 450,000 to the US dollar speeding up inflation that is expected soon to surpass the official rate of 51 percent. All government attempts to manipulate the forex market have so far failed.