Iran Wreaks Chaos Across Middle East As Tensions Rise
Chaos at the hands of Iran’s allies and proxies rippled across the region this weekend, with its effects felt from Israel to the US with Israel blaming Tehran.
Chaos at the hands of Iran’s allies and proxies rippled across the region this weekend, with its effects felt from Israel to the US with Israel blaming Tehran.
Last Thursday saw the worst rocket attacks launched on Israel from Lebanon’s south in the most intense flare-up since 2006, at the same time as rocket attacks were being launched from Hamas-controlled Gaza in Israel’s south.
On Saturday night, that front extended to Syria, where rockets were fired into the Golan Heights. In both cases, Israel has strategically but moderately responded, attacking the likes of rocket launchers, radar and artillery positions in the wake of the attacks.
The turbulence continued after the announcement that the US Navy has deployed a guided-missile submarine capable of carrying up to 154 Tomahawk missiles to the Middle East in a show of force toward Iran following recent tensions. Just last month the US launched airstrikes against Iran-backed forces in Syria after a rocket attack killed a US contractor and wounded seven other Americans in that country’s northeast.
The latest deployment is believed to follow the uncovering of a plot by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Aerospace Force which was preparing a drone attack against Israeli-owned civilian merchant vessels sailing in the Persian Gulf and the Arabian Sea, according to a report in The New York Times.
In a rare acknowledgment of the location and deployment of submarines, Commander Timothy Hawkins, a spokesman for the 5th Fleet based in Bahrain, said it can carry up to 154 Tomahawk land-attack cruise missiles and is deployed to US 5th Fleet “to help ensure regional maritime security and stability”.
]The 5th Fleet patrols the crucial Strait of Hormuz, the narrow mouth of the Persian Gulf through which 20% of all oil transits. Its region includes the Bab el-Mandeb Strait off Yemen and the Red Sea stretching up to the Suez Canal, the Egyptian waterway linking the Mideast to the Mediterranean Sea.
The US, UK and Israel have accused Iran of targeting oil tankers and commercial ships in recent years, allegations denied by Tehran. The US Navy has also reported a series of tense encounters at sea with Iranian forces that it said were being recklessly aggressive.
And now, many are waiting to see what Israel’s bigger response will be to the attacks from Lebanon, which at minimum, have the tacit approval of Hezbollah which controls the area, but no doubt, has the blessing of Tehran.
So far, Israel has cautiously attributed blame to Palestinian factions in Lebanon, compounded by the fact Hamas’ political chief, Ismail Haniyeh, had met with Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah on the eve of the rocket barrage.
The Israel Defense Forces’ spokesman alluded to the fact that investigations into Iranian involvement were underway in a press briefing Thursday but this weekend, Israel’s Minister of Defense Yoav Gallant spoke with his US counterpart, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, and for the first time, claimed the attacks from both Gaza and Lebanon, were done "with the backing of Iran”.
While Hamas continues its campaign of chaos, the prospects for calm look slim. Carefully orchestrated riots inside the world’s third holiest Muslim site, Al Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem, provoke often violent responses from Israel Police, appointed to safeguard freedom of worship.
Images of masked rioters in physical confrontations with police inside the mosque continue to stir the hatred and fuel Iran’s strategy for weakening Israel’s image in the public eye.
The Iranian regime’s media is boasting of its proxies destabilizing Israel and intimidating “the Zionists”.
On Sunday, Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, speaker of Islamic Republic’s parliament, spoke in the public session of the legislative body and called Israeli retaliation “barbaric attacks”.
He left little to the imagination about the regime’s future plans. The multi-faceted war against Israel continues unabated. He warned: “The Zionist regime is in its weakest state in history and knows that a harsh and crushing punishment awaits them.”
The semi-official news agency ISNA reported April 6 that a parliamentary committee has suggested that no one who has already served as a lawmaker for three rounds in the parliament (Majles) should be allowed to run in the next parliamentary election in March 2024. The proposal is not to bar those who have served consecutive terms, but anyone who has served three terms.
Many of the ultra-conservatives in the current Majles are first term lawmakers, while there are many prominent and more moderate politicians who can challenge them next year.
Social media users in Iran noted that that the motion is a way of barring individuals such as former President Hassan Rouhani and former Majlis Speaker Ali Larijani from running for the next round of the parliament.
This is presumably meant to save the embarrassment of disqualifying high-profile candidates ahead of the upcoming election, social media activists said.
In the 2020, the Guardian Council packed with loyalists of the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, disqualified hundreds of ‘reformists’, allowing the hardliners to breeze through in a low-turnout election. But the mass rejections became a serious embarrassment for the regime and after months of protests, Khamenei would prefer to bar unwanted politicians in a less direct manner.
According to ISNA, the suggestion has been made by the internal affairs committee of the Majles as part of the proposed amendment to the election law. However, the deputy speaker should review the suggestion to make sure it does not contradict the current laws before sending it for debate in an open session.
If the suggestion is discussed and approved by the Majles, then the constitutional watchdog Guardian Council has two weeks to accept or reject it. However, it is a known fact in Iran that the council operates based on Khamenei's preferences rather than the law.
Reformist daily Shargh wrote on the same date that others including former Vice President Es'haq Jahangiri and former lawmaker Ali Motahari will also be barred from running for the next Majles if the suggestion is approved.
According to Shargh, if accepted, the move will provide a stronger guarantee for the current ultraconservative "young revolutionary" lawmakers' re-election. In a similar move, the ultraconservatives raised the minimum age for presidential candidacy so that former IT Minister Mohammad Javad Azari Jahromi would not be able to run for President in 2021.
Shargh's columnist Vahideh Karimi wrote that as far as the young lawmakers of the current Majles are concerned, the ratification of this suggestion is a fateful event for them. They know that individuals such as Ali Larijani or Motahari can quickly form a strong alliance once they are elected, and this will make it hard for the remaining ultraconservatives at the Majles to exercise influence.
The move will also bar some of the conservative members of the parliament such as Mostafa Mirsalim from running in 2024 but the ultraconservatives cannot be less concerned as Mirsalim and other elderly and experienced traditional conservatives are less popular than the moderates who might wish to make a comeback.
In the meantime, the poor performance of the current parliament has left very little hope for most current lawmakers' re-election. As a Khabar Online report noted earlier, hardliners in Majles have done little in three years, except trying to pass laws to restrict freedoms.
Meanwhile, according to a Tasnim news agency report, Majles Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf has called for boosting the people's trust in the government to ensure a higher turnout in the next election. Last time, less than 20 percent of potential voters took part in Tehran and around 40 percent in small towns and villages. "Without this trust, everyone will lose, and the people will trust us only if we share decision-making with them," said Ghalibaf.