Can Tensions Between Azerbaijan And Iran End In War?
Maryam Sinaiee
Iran International
The likelihood of war between Iran and Azerbaijan has increased with escalation between Yerevan and Baku, but pundits in Tehran are optimistic war can be avoided.
Iran International
The likelihood of war between Iran and Azerbaijan has increased with escalation between Yerevan and Baku, but pundits in Tehran are optimistic war can be avoided.
Tensions have been high between Iran and Azerbaijan since November 2022 when both sides accused each other of engaging in terrorism and espionage. Iran has also suggested Azerbaijani involvement in the October 26 attack in Shiraz claimed by the Islamic State group (Isis-Daesh).
While some pundits allege that Tehran is awaiting a wrong move by Azerbaijan to attack the country, international relations expert Ali Bigdeli in Tehran told Rouydad 24 news website that the possibility of military conflict between Tehran and Baku is “nil” while criticizing Russia for “silence” over the situation given its close relations with both.
Tehran has also accused Baku of harboring Israeli intelligence and military elements that plan to use its territory in a possible attack against Iran’s nuclear facilities. “The [Azerbaijani] soil is a base for Israel from where it can threaten Iran's security,” Bigdeli said.
He pointed out that Israel has succeeded in “infiltrating” not only Azerbaijan but also other countries including Iran's neighbor Turkmenistan and Central Asian states. At the same time, Shia Iran's attempts to create “centers of resistance” in Azerbaijan where, unlike its Sunni rulers, 60 percent of the population are Shiites irritates Baku.
Around a quarter of Iran’s population is Azari, with analysts and activists disagreeing over the closeness of their cultural-linguistic links to their neighbors to the north.
Hamed Khosroshahi, a Caucasus region researcher in Tehran, expressed a similar view about the possibility of war between Tehran and Baku in an interview with Donya-ye Eghtesad daily. The possibility of war is near zero because both Iran and Azerbaijan are aware that that they have ties that cannot be altered.
Azerbaijan’s Nakhichevan enclave bordering Iran needs to procure gas and oil through Iran on the one hand and Iran's dependence on transit to Russia through Azerbaijan, are important factors he said. “The two sides know that they should not allow tensions rise beyond a certain level.”
While saying that the two countries are currently “appraising” their military power, Vali Khalaji, Caucasus region and Central Asia analyst in Tehran, said escalation of tensions would not necessarily end in war and could instead result in “relaxation of tensions” given factors including interdependent transit needs.
Current tensions are closely tied to the recent escalation between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Secretary of the Security Council of Armenia, Armen Grigoryan on Friday accused Azerbaijan of preparing for military escalation. Baku vehemently denies the charge while accusing Yerevan of violating the Prague and Sochi agreements.
A transit corridor through Syunik province of Armenia which Azerbaijan is demanding to secure access to its Nakhichevan Autonomous region without Armenian checkpoints will disconnect Iran from its de facto ally and trade partner Armenia.
Russia’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergey Lavrov met with Armenian Minister of Foreign Affairs Ararat Mirzoyan in Samarkand, Uzbekistan, Friday and among other topics, according to Armen Press, discussed “unblocking of all economic and transport links in the region” and the Nagorno Karabakh issue.
Azerbaijan closed its embassy in Tehran afteran armed attack on Azerbaijan’s embassy in Tehran in January and earlier this month expelled four Iranian diplomats over what it called “provocative actions” which may refer to Iran's several military drills along the border with Azerbaijan in the past year including the latest in October.
Fresh skirmishes at Armenian-Azerbaijani border earlier this week left a total of seven deaths from both sides in one day around the contested Nagarno-Karabakh region. The Islamic Republic says it is neutral in the conflict, but it apparently backs its de facto ally Armenia and has warned it would not tolerate changes to international borders.
Ramezan Sharif was quoted by IRGC-affiliated Fars news website Saturday said Israel has repeatedly issued similar statements, but he has one message and that is: The situation of the Americans in the region is such that they cannot support the Zionists.
Israel has long threatened that if the Islamic Republic gets close to obtaining a nuclear weapon it will use all methods including a direct military attack to prevent it. President Joe Biden has also vowed not to allow the Iranian regime to produce nuclear weapons, with “all options on the table.”
But Tehran has been emboldened by a recent agreement with Saudi Arabia to restore diplomatic relations, mediated by China. It sees itself as not so isolated in the region and believes that a possible threat of an Israeli-Arab military alliance has receded.
China brokering a deal between two regional rivals has been widely seen as a defeat for the United States in the region and the ascendance of Chinese influence in the Middle East.
Sharif also said that “The Americans seem to be trying not to fall into the lap of the Zionists, because they know that if Zionists take action against us our in-kind retaliation will engulf the bases of those supporting them.”
However, the United States has continued to pledge its readiness to support Israel and held large joint military drills in January.
The US Navy also announced April 8 the deployment of a guided-missile submarine capable of carrying up to 154 Tomahawk missiles to the Middle East, in what appeared to be a show of force toward Iran following recent tensions in Syria and rocket attacks on Israel.
IRGC’s spokesman went on to say that Israeli statements about attacking Iran without American help stem from US messages that they are not able to assist Israel as the case was in the past and “are not ready to enter a battle [knowing] where it would end.”
After the agreement to restore ties with Saudi Arabia was announced March 10 in Beijing, Iran has become more aggressive against Israel, openly calling on its allies and militant proxies to attack the Jewish state. The new belligerent policy was reinforced by massive anti-government protests in Israel against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s plans to overhaul the country’s judiciary.
The Wall Street Journal reported Friday that the commander of IRGC’s extraterritorial Quds Force, Esmail Qaani has held a series of secret meetings with leaders of Iran’s armed proxy groups in recent weeks to plan attacks against Israel.
The Journal said that to coordinate a rocket a rocket attack from Lebanon on Israel in early April Qaani met in Beirut, with Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh and his deputy Saleh al-Arouri and Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah.
IRGC’s chief commander Gen. Hossein Salami on Friday boasted that “The Zionist regime is the target of military attacks by all countries and does not even know from where the attacks are coming.” Salami was speaking at a ceremony marking the anti-Israeli Quds Day in Esfahan, central Iran. He took credit for the attacks saying that the Islamic Republic is now a source of legitimacy for regional countries, while just a few months ago they had distanced themselves from Tehran.
Iran’s president Ebrahim Raisi speaking in Tehran on the Quds Day reiterated that the liberation of Quds (Jerusalem) is imminent; “Closer than you can imagine,” adding that “the normalization of relations with regional states [such as the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain] has not brought and will not bring security for the Zionist regime.”
The former head of the Tehran City Council Mohsen Hashemi has said this week that lack of hope and trust in the future was a factor in the ferocity of the protests.
Prominent sociologist Mohammad Fazeli has also said that hope in the future of Iran has weakened among the public and this casts a shadow of doubt on any solution that the government might offer for long-standing problems.
Pundits from the two extremes in the Iranian political landscape, reformist commentator Abbas Abdi and conservative pundit Mohammad Mohajeri spoke to Tejarat Farda magazine’s issue published in late March about the outlook of Iran's political landscape as the new Iranian year began. The magazine's editor Sadaf Samimi concluded that their views about the future of Iran and what happened last year are strikingly similar.
Abdi opined that the Islamic Republic was under pressure from the protests and the foreign-based opposition.
"I believe the next two years will definitely bring about major changes in Iran." He did not expand on the nature of those changes but said, "Iran has many potentials for improvement, but this does not mean that today's official policies can continue."
Mohajeri said that last year's protests created a very good opportunity for the Iranian regime. Although the protests were threatening the regime, they also signalled dangers that alerted the regime. Mohajeri added that Iranian officials attributed the protests to the intervention of foreign countries, but they realized that the protests have their roots inside the country.
He observed that previous protests in Iran were motivated by economic problems, but this time there was no talk of the economic grievances among the protesters.
"Although everyone knew that there were problems relating to the people's livelihood, and nearly all of those arrested during the protests were coming from the lower strata…the main problems the protesters were concerned about were political and cultural issues.”
The two pundits however agreed that the receding of street protests did not mean that the movement is over. Anything can re-ignite the protests, they said.
Abdi said it is essential that major changes take place in Iran during the next two years, but the Iranian government seems incapable of problem solving. This is a government that does not accept even clear facts such as rising meat prices and in one instance banned a newspaper that published the news. The first thing that should be reformed in Iran is the media, he said that even do not cover recent gas attacks on girls' schools.
On the other hand, the government is not aware of the impact of international reporting, such as CNN's report on torture in Iranian prisons, Abdi said. More competitive election and equality before the law are essential to restore a semblance of normality.
Mohajeri said the people have lost their trust in the government so that even if it disseminated factual news, still people would not believe the government. This trust has been lost over many years.
He said, When the officials promise that the rate of exchange and market prices will come down but the opposite happens, the people have every right not to believe them again. He added: Although I believe the officials have realized the truth following the protests, I still have not received a signal that would indicate the likelihood of an improvement in the next year.