Iran International
A major water dispute between Iran’s clerical regime and the Taliban continues as a Tehran officials issue warnings and the Afghan rulers ridicule them.
A Taliban official appeared in a video holding a bucket at the edge of a reservoir and saying he wants to give water to Iran. He ridiculed the Iranian regime’s president Ebrahim Raisi who had earlier used threatening language. “I want to give water, so Iran’s president does not launch a military attack.” The video went viral on social media.
Iran's foreign ministry Friday “strongly refuted” Taliban’s claim over lack of enough water in the river Hirmand (Helmand in Afghan) due to draught to release Iran's share of the river’s waters.
The foreign ministry also said Taliban’s statement over the issue contained “contradictory and false information”.
Energy Minister Ali-Akbar Mehrabian said Friday that the government is determined to pursue Iran's water rights according to the Afghan-Iranian Water Treaty of March 1973 to regulate the use of the river.
The Taliban’s claim that there is not enough water to flow from Kajaki dam towards the Iranian border is not acceptable and is in contradiction to the experience of the past few years, he said.
Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian also accused the Afghan government in a tweet Thursday of not allowing Iranian experts to investigate the matter in Afghanistan despite his repeated requests. “Proof of existence or lack of water is technical and actual visit [by experts], not a political statement [by the Taliban],” he wrote.
Spokesman of Iran's Aerospace Organization, Hossein Dalirian, said in a tweet Thursday that images from Iran's Khayyam satellite indicate that the government of Afghanistan has stopped the waters from reaching Iran by changing the course of the river in some areas and building “numerous” barriers.
The halt in the flow of water from Afghanistan has seriously affected the lives of hundreds of thousands in the southeastern province of Sistan and Baluchestan.
While Afghanistan says it needs dams to store water for agriculture or to produce electricity, which it imports from neighboring countries including Iran, many environmentalists are critical of large-scale water engineering projects.
The Iranian government, and environmentalists, argue constructing the dam on Helmand River will deepen problems in Iran’s eastern provinces, particularly in Sistan-Baluchestan where water resources are scarce. Declining rainfall since late 1990s, which caused prolonged droughts in the Helmand basin, as well as water mismanagement both in Afghanistan and Iran, has had serious ecological, economic and social impact.
Wetlands in Sistan have largely turned into salt flats, the once rich wildlife has disappeared, and many local villages abandoned. In 2019, after nearly two decades of drought, water from Helmand reached the wetlands of Sistan and partially revived the Hamoun-e Hirmand Lake. The lake is a UNESCO biosphere reserve.
The dispute between the two countries over water is long standing but it has escalated in the past few years.
In March 2021 in a televised speech inaugurating the Kamal Khan Dam in Nimroz province, former Afghan President Ashraf Ghani said that while Afghanistan remained committed to the treaty but added that "anything beyond the stipulated quota" required further discussion. He suggested that Iran should pay for ‘extra’ water from the Helmand River by providing oil to his country.
His remarks appeared to refer to Article V of the 1973 treaty, which stipulated Iran in "a normal water year" was entitled to a flow of 22 cubic meters per second from the 1,150km (700 mile) long river.
Hirmand rises in the Hindu Kush before flowing west into Iran and feeding an area of wetlands in the Sistan region including Hamoun Lake. Iran has not always received this amount – in 1999, for example, the Taliban turned off the flow completely.
President Ebrahim Raisi's special envoy for Afghan affairs, Hassan Kazemi Qomi, said Tuesday that Iran received 27 million cubic meters of water out of the 820 million cubic meters it was entitled to under the 1973 treaty.
Khamenei addressed foreign ministry officials and ambassadors at a time when his foreign policy of defying the West has become more controversial in Iran amid a serious economic crisis.
Khamenei set out to explain and clarify the principles and standards of “a successful foreign policy” focusing on three keywords: Honor, wisdom, and expediency.
A foreign policy based on supplication in words or in essence, and begging for favors from foreign powers is doomed, Khamenei said. He urged diplomats to respond to the words and actions of others reciprocally and “with honor.”
The 83-year-old authoritarian ruler also emphasized the need for wisdom in foreign policy. In a statement urging caution, he said that “uncalculated and dismissive” decisions and actions in the past have harmed the country.
Iranian officials and politicians, however, usually take their cue from Khamenei, especially in foreign policy matters. His past statements against regional countries such as Saudi Arabia, Israel, or the United States and Europe have led to more provocative statements by his underlings.
But the Supreme Leader often speaks with double meanings, leaving room for himself to shirk responsibility if a certain policy proves to be a failure.
Khamenei used this tactic during nuclear negotiations a decade ago. While approving the policy of talks and compromise, he also warned that other nations could not be trusted, and a nuclear deal might prove to be disadvantageous.
He followed the same tact on Saturday, saying that the principle of using ‘wisdom’ also means not to unnecessarily trust what other countries say, although sometimes they are sincere. He has repeatedly said in the past that the United States and its allies cannot be trusted.
Khamenei in his speech used the Islamic concept of 'Taqiyya' to describe the regime's decision to accept the 2015 JCPOA nuclear deal with the West. Taqiyya means the permissibility to deny or conceal one's real beliefs to secure a worthy goal.
Khamenei’s emphasis on “expediency” as the third principle in foreign policy was particularly notable, as he urged flexibility “in necessary instances” and circumventing “tough barriers” to continue a set course.
His mention of ‘flexibility’ was a reference to his famous phrase of “heroic flexibility” in 2013, when he signaled his permission for nuclear talks to begin.
“Of course, a few years ago when ‘heroic flexibility’ was mentioned, some abroad and in Iran had the wrong take on it. Expediency means finding ways to circumvent difficult obstacles and pursuing the same path,” Khamenei clarified.
In the context of Iran's nuclear program, this remark could mean that Khamenei justifies negotiations as a way of continuing to pursue the same goal by going around the opposition of other countries.
Commentators and many politicians in Iran have been increasingly calling for a flexible foreign policy and accommodation with the West, while the public knows that Khamenei makes all the key decisions.
With annual inflation reported to be near 70 percent and the Iranian currency losing half its value in the past year, with popular anti-regime protests and labor strikes, Khamenei finds himself in a tough position. However, so far, there is no indications of a foreign policy shift, except an agreement to restore diplomatic ties with regional rival Saudi Arabia.
Khamenei in his speech urged his foreign policy establishment to work hard for improving ties with regional countries, blaming “the enemy for doing everything” to drive a wedge between Iran and its neighbors.
In Khamenei’s lexicon, ‘the enemy’ refers mainly to the United States and Israel and to a lesser extent to other US allies, including European powers.
Mohammad Ali Abtahi, former reformist President Mohammad Khatami's chief of staff told Rouydad24 website on Wednesday that "if the people do not feel that it is a free election, they will not take part in it."
"My understanding is that the Guardian Council is not going to soften its policy on the disqualification [of reform-minded candidates]. It is not likely that those who have gone out of their way to create a unified political system will come short of their hardliner policies."
Other Iranian media outlets such as Khabar Online have also pointed out during recent days that ten months before the vote in March 2024, there is no election mood in Iran unlike previous rounds when campaigns started at least a year before the elections. In the meantime, many Iranian officials including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei have expressed concern about a likely low-turnout next March.
Khamenei told Iranian officials in late March that a high-turnout election will make the country powerful and will stop international pressures on the Islamic Republic. He called for a "healthy election" as he was aware of criticisms of the way the latest Iranian elections were held in 2020 and 2021 presumably under his supervision.
Many politicians, particularly reformist figures such as Abtahi and Mohsen Mirdamadi, the leader of banned reformist party Mosharekat have said that the regime in Iran has lost its social capital, a polite word for legitimacy, as a result of the disputed presidential election of 2009 and the protests that have rocked Iran since 2017.
Abtahi added that those who currently hold the power in Iran are not interested in increasing the turnout in the upcoming elections, as only a low turnout can ensure their victory.
Meanwhile, lawmaker Gholamreza Nouri Ghezeljeh told Khabar Online website on Wednesday that the current ultraconservative-dominated parliament is working hard in extraordinary sessions to pass an amendment to Iran's Election Law to serve the hardliners by giving even more power to the conservative-dominated Guardian Council to disqualify any candidate who does not belong to the ultraconservative camp.
Ghezeljeh characterized the new legislation as "a law against the republican system," however, he said that hardliners are working hard to enact the legislation before the upcoming elections.
On Tuesday, prominent conservative politician Mohammad Javad Bahonar had said that the Majles should not be involved in changing the Election Law, as the incumbent lawmakers tend to manipulate the legislation to ensure their own re-election.
Ghezeljeh said that in the draft amendment the Guardian Council has been given the power to disqualify even those who get elected. He said such a legislation will weaken the parliament altogether.
Some Iranian politicians have also expressed concern about the next presidential election which usually takes place in the year after the Majles election.
Former lawmaker Gholam AIi Jafarzadeh Imenabadi said in an interview on Wednesday that President Ebrahim Raisi's chances for re-election is limited. "He can score only if they put him in front of an empty goal post," he said.
Imanabadi reiterated that "In a competitive election neither Raisi nor 90 percent of current lawmakers have any chance to get re-elected."
In an unexpected move, Volodymyr Zelenskyy attended the summit of the Arab League to canvas support for his people, while Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman expressed his readiness to mediate in the war between Moscow and Kyiv.
"We reaffirm the kingdom's readiness to continue mediating efforts between Russia and Ukraine, and to support all international efforts aimed at resolving the crisis politically in a way that contributes to achieving security," the Saudi Crown Prince said in his opening speech.
At the same time, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad was given a warm welcome at the summit, winning a hug from Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince at a meeting of leaders who had shunned him for years, in a policy shift opposed by the US and other Western powers.
However, having Assad, a Russian and Iranian ally and Zelenskyy at the same summit was a diplomatic achievement by Saudi Arabia that reinforces it image as the main player in the Middle East and increasingly a key presence on the world stage.
The government in Tehran has so far not reacted to Riyadh’s move inviting Zelenskyy to the summit, although there was negative coverage by IRGC-linked Fars news agency.
Iran has supported Russia’s invasion of Ukraine by supplying kamikaze drones and other weapons to Moscow and signing several economic agreements with Moscow just this week.
Although Tehran initially welcomed Saudi Arabia’s decision to restore ties with Assad, Iranian media began mentioning that Damascus owes tens of billions of dollars to Iran for its economic and military support since the start of the Syrian civil war in 2011. If rich Arab countries, led by Saudi Arabia, succeed in winning over Assad, Iran will be the biggest loser, finding its decade-long effort to expand influence in the Levant as a failure.
"We hope Syria's return to the Arab League leads to the end of its crisis," Crown Prince Mohammed said in his remarks, 12 years after Arab states suspended Syria as the country descended into a civil war that has killed more than 350,000 people.
Oil powerhouse Saudi Arabia, once heavily influenced by the United States, has taken the diplomatic lead in the Arab world in the past year, re-establishing ties with Iran, welcoming Syria back to the fold, and mediating in the Sudan conflict.
Washington has objected to any steps towards normalization with Assad, saying there must first be progress towards a political solution to the conflict.
"The Americans are dismayed. We (Persian Gulf states) are people living in this region, we're trying to solve our problems as much as we can with the tools available to us in our hands," an Arab source close to government circles told Reuters.
The Saudi Syrian rapprochement followed a Chinese-brokered deal between Riyadh and Tehran in March to restore relations after a seven-year hiatus.
In 2018, the Qatari emir said the region could not tolerate "a war criminal" like Assad. Qatar hosted an Arab summit a decade ago at which the Syrian opposition sat in Syria's seat. Many regarded Assad as a war criminal for bombing and gassing his own people during the civil war.
With reporting by Reuters