Iran International
Iran may be quietly preparing for the politically risky move of raising fuel prices and selling gasoline at three different rates, Iran International has learned.
An informed source said that the government has notified gas stations to be ready for the implementation of the plan which will introduce a new ration at between 80 to 90 percent of gasoline spot prices in Persian Gulf countries, or at least 15 times higher than the current 3 US cents Iranians pay per liter.
Iran has the world’s second cheaper gasoline after Venezuela.
Such a sudden increase for gasoline, bought in addition to a 60-lter monthly ration, can cause unrest following the longest nationwide protests that shook the country in the closing months of 2022.
Iran International has also learned that security organizations have been preparing for possible protests and ready to confront any unrest.
Software required for the calculation of prices based on the use of digital ration cards have been updated at all gas stations and banks have taken the required measures for processing the payments during the past one year, he said.
The sources also said a new plan introduced in Urumieh, capital of West Azarbaijan Province, is in preparation and a prelude to the implementation of the new measures.
Ahmad Mojarad, managing director of the government-owned Oil Products Distribution Company of Urumieh, told the official news agency IRNA Sunday that digital gasoline rationing cards in Orumieh will be charged with 210 liters per month (60 liters at the subsidized rate of 15,000 rials and an extra 150 liters at 30,000).
Therefore, anyone who needs to use more than 55.5 gallons a month has to pay a price close to international rates, while Iranians have been impoverished by a 70-percent annual inflation rate.
The government has not announced any new rationing plans yet but in March, just days after Iran International reported that national reserves were down to five-days’ supply, the CEO of the National Iranian Oil Refining and Distribution Company, Ali-Akbar Nejad-Ali, urged people to reduce gasoline consumption.
The semi-official Iranian Students News Agency (ISNA) reported then that the average consumption of gasoline between March 11 and 20 stood at 121.8 million liters, up by 13.9% in comparison to the same period the year before.
Gasoline was first rationed during the Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988) when paper coupons were required for its purchase.
In 2007, introduction of digital fuel ration cards by the government of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad caused unrest in some cities including the capital Tehran where several gas stations were burned down by angry protesters. At this stage rationed subsidized gasoline was sold at 1,000 rials per liter and extra fuel cost 4,000. These prices were raised to 7,000 and 10,000 in 2014 by the administration of his successor, President Hassan Rouhani.
In 2015, two years after the nuclear deal with world powers, officially known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), rationing and two-price plan were removed by the government which argued that these caused corruption and gasoline began to be sold at 10,000.
When sanctions slapped on Iran in 2018 by the administration of the US President Donald Trump began to bite, rationing and the two-price system had to resume. This time, the subsidized rate rose to 15,000 rials for 60 liters per month and additional fuel was priced at 30,000.
After months of rumors, the government abruptly announced the new plans on November 14, 2019. By the evening of the same day, protesters had taken to the streets in several cities including Ahvaz, Mashhad and Shiraz and one protester was killed in Sirjan.
Protests which authorities very heavy-handedly suppressed, soon spread across the country, and lasted for almost a week.
The government never released any figures on the death toll or announced the number of protesters arrested by security forces. Reuters at the time reported 1,500 deaths.
In a report Friday, Dadban said the three young men – Milad Armoun, Mehdi Hosseini and Alireza Kafaei -- have been charged with Muhariba (pronounced moharebeh in Persian) for the killing of a 21-year-old Basiji militia member named Arman Aliverdi in Tehran’s Ekbatan neighborhood October 26 amid nationwide protests.
Muhariba is an Islamic-Arabic term that in the lexicon of the Iranian regime means bearing arms and “fighting God” or “waging war against God,” and carries the death penalty.
A video circulating on social media at the time showed Aliverdi bleeding from the face and head while a protester kicked him. He later died in hospital. Authorities claim protesters also stabbed him.
Defendants in the case have denied stabbing Aliverdi who the residents of Ekbatan say had been trying to infiltrate the protesters to identify their leaders.
A young woman, who identifies herself as Aidi and runs the neighborhood’s popular Twitter account, told Iran International that the case is still under investigation and the accused have not been sentenced yet.
According to Payam Dorfeshan who represents one of the defendants in the case, the accused were tortured to confess to Aliverdi’s killing and implicate each other, Dadban said.
It also reported three other defendants, Mehdi Hosseini, Hossein Nemati and another yet unnamed young man apparently arrested in Ahvaz recently, have been charged with “complicity in murder” and “propaganda against the regime”.
After the incident, security forces from various agencies carried out many raids in Ekbatan and arrested at least fifty young protesters. Fourteen of the detainees were eventually indicted but others were freed later for lack of any evidence of their involvement in Aliverdi’s killing.
Dadban quoted Dorfeshan as saying that security forces’ violent daytime and night raids in Ekbatan were meant to arrest defendants and other protesters and instill fear among the residents.
The west Tehran neighborhood was an epicenter of protests ignited by the death of Mahsa Amini, the 22-year-old woman who was fatally injured in September 2022 while in police custody following her arrest for not wearing “proper” hijab.
“These raids have seriously affected the mental health of the residents, particularly children.There are reliable reports about sleep disturbance and nightmares among children after these raids. Their drawings also show violent scenes as a result of [witnessing] the raids,” he said.
During the heat of the protests, Basij militiamen and officers of various intelligence and security forces in plainclothes attacked chanting young people who marched in small groups around the blocks of apartments in Ekbatan.
Basijis and other security forces on several occasions shot at people’s windows indiscriminately, rampaged the entrance lobbies in several blocks, broke the windows, and destroyed the lobby furniture and intercoms to give the residents a lesson.
The ever-present Basij have four bases within the five square kilometer complex which has 15,500 apartments and a population of around 45,000.
Regime forces often used tear gas, shot pellets at protesters for chanting “Death to Khamenei” and “Down with the Dictator” every night, and made arrests both outside and inside the buildings.
The differences in opinion among officials about the economic crisis has surfaced in the media while the current government is halfway through its four-year term of office.
Expediency Council chief Sadeq Amoli-Larijani warned in an interview with Etemad Online that Iranians are finding it increasingly difficult to cope with their financial hardships and the government needs to take urgent measures. Amoli-Larijani said that he has informed officials of the alarming state of the economy.
He said the situation is so urgent that officials must come up with immediate, short-term solutions to tackle the country’s economic problems.
Iran’s currency has lost half its value in less than a year and millions of people have sunk into poverty. Iran has refused to reach a nuclear deal with the United States, which could lift crippling economic sanctions.
Meanwhile, former lawmaker Ezzatollah Yousefian-Molla told Nasmeh News that Iran's economy will face hyperinflation starting in June. He said the rise in prices between May 2022 and May 2023 is unbelievable. According to the Iranian Central Bank, the point-to-point inflation between those two dates has been over 55.5 percent. Others have offered higher estimates approaching 70 percent.
Yousefian-Molla suggested that the government had better not announce inflation figures under the circumstances. He warned the situation is getting even worse. He even said that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s latest speech to Iranian diplomats about changing Iran’s diplomacy was alluding to the fact that something needs to be done to improve the status of the economy.
He added that Iranians are finding it increasingly difficult to make ends meet although they do their best to spend less. Even prices of bread, cheese and eggs have skyrocketed. In such a situation, he said, the people will not believe government lies about economic growth.
Despite the warnings, vice president for economic affairs Mohsen Rezaei says economic reforms are on their way. However, he admitted that the current situation is “painful” for the people. Meanwhile, despite being a member of the government, he criticised the government for not keeping up with technological progress.
He also criticized Iranian governments during the past 80 years for trying to take over exisiting companies and factories rather than genuinely seeking to make Iran an industrial country. Rezaei added that the factories the government has established are on a declining course.
He maintained that Iran has been successful only in defense industries. “In other areas, we have spent a lot of money and energy while we did not have enough progress.” He further boasted that “Big powers fear our defence industries.”
He also criticized the budgeting system in Iran and said the government allocates budget but has no idea from where the funding should come. Rezaei added that Iran’s banking system also needs to be reformed to be compatible with international standards.
Meanwhile, he blamed the people for the lack of economic progress saying that the country needs economic reforms, but implementing those reforms will lead to protests.
In another development, the Speaker of the Iranian Parliament Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said in an interview with the IRGC-linked Tasnim news agency that “I promise to bring about economic stability with a five-year plan to overcome inflation.”