Iran Makes Partial Concessions To UN Nuclear Watchdog
The UN nuclear watchdog has re-installed only some monitoring equipment that Iran ordered removed last year, the watchdog said in two reports on Wednesday.
The UN nuclear watchdog has re-installed only some monitoring equipment that Iran ordered removed last year, the watchdog said in two reports on Wednesday.
The reports indicate partial Iranian cooperation, first in years, with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) as the watchdog’s board of governors is scheduled to meet this month. In the past, Tehran has been censured by the board for lack of cooperation.
The re-installed equipment is a fraction of what the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) had planned to set up to improve its surveillance of Iran's nuclear activities, as the IAEA said it had agreed with Iran in March in a bid to defuse a standoff between both sides over Iran's cooperation.
The limited progress described in the reports did, however, include the installation of real-time enrichment monitoring equipment on the only lines of centrifuges enriching uranium to up to 60% purity, near weapons grade, at Natanz and Fordow, a senior diplomat said.
At the same time, Iran's stock of uranium enriched to up to 60% has continued to grow and is now roughly enough for two nuclear bombs, one of the two confidential quarterly reports to member states showed.
Iran has been pressing ahead with its enrichment program, which it has been progressively expanding and accelerating, including at its underground Fordow site that was developed in secret and which may have been built inside a mountain to protect it from potential air attack.
The 2015 Iran nuclear deal imposed strict limits on the types of centrifuges Iran could use and where as well as the purity it could enrich to and the amount of enriched uranium it could hoard, in exchange for the lifting of international sanctions against Iran.
After then-President Donald Trump pulled the United States out of that deal in 2018 and re-imposed sanctions, Iran breached and moved beyond the deal's enrichment level of 3.65 percent purity. By early 2021, as the new Biden administration signalled its readiness to re-enter the agreement, Tehran adopted a tough position and began enriching up to 20 and then 60-percent, to the point IAEA chief Rafael Grossi has called the deal an "empty shell" and diplomats say there are scant chances of reviving it.
One IAEA report on Wednesday said Iran now had 114.1 kg of uranium enriched to up to 60% and in the form of uranium hexafluoride (UF6), which can easily be enriched further - an increase of 26.6 kg from the previous quarter.
About 42 kg of uranium enriched to 60% is what the IAEA calls a "significant quantity", defined as "the approximate amount of nuclear material for which the possibility of manufacturing a nuclear explosive device cannot be excluded".
INVESTIGATION GETS AN EXPLANATION
Although the United States says there is no evidence that Iran has decided to proceed and build a weapon, in testimony to Congress in March, Gen. Marky Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of staff, warned that Tehran could “field” a bomb in several weeks, if it made the crucial decision.
A senior diplomat has cautioned, however, that in practice it would take more than 55 kg of uranium enriched to 60% to make one bomb because some material is wasted during enrichment.
In addition, Iran's total stockpile of enriched uranium continues to grow and is now 23 times the 202.8-kg limit imposed by the 2015 deal, at 4.7 tonnes, the report said.
The IAEA also reported that after years of investigation and lack of progress with Iran on explaining uranium particles found at three sites, Iran had given a satisfactory answer on one of them to explain the presence of uranium particles there. The IAEA has also accepted Iran’s explanation about why particles of 83-percent enriched uranium were found earlier this year at one of its installations.
The Wall Street Journal reporter Laurence Norman, who has seen the report, tweeted that the IAEA had no choice but accept some explanations that seem plausible. If the Agency in the future comes across new information, it can re-open closed cases.
“Iran will conclude from this that by offering very little and quite possibly providing answers that aren't entirely accurate, they've whittled 4 safeguards files down to 2 and can keep grinding away until the agency gives up,” Norman wrote.
While the particles could be explained by the presence of a Soviet-operated mine and lab there and the IAEA had no further questions, a senior diplomat said, the IAEA's assessment remained that Iran carried out explosives testing there decades ago that was relevant to nuclear weapons.
The added monitoring equipment included surveillance cameras at a site in Esfahan (Isfahan) where centrifuge parts are made, one report said. The other added that the IAEA "awaits Iran's engagement to address" issues including the installation of more monitoring equipment and the two remaining sites where uranium particles were found.
With reporting by Reuters
As Brett McGurk, President Biden’s senior Middle East adviser, took a low-profile trip to Oman earlier this month for talks on possible diplomatic outreach to Iran, it seems this is more than ‘talks’.
Neither the US nor Oman made the visit public, suggesting only something as serious as Iran could have called for such secrecy. Though the Biden administration has spoken of their desire to quash Iran’s nuclear program, its softly softly approach has called into question the lengths it will go to.
Oman has recently been pitched as a broker between Iran and Saudi in the lead-up to the détente in March and stands a good chance of holding Iran’s hand as it deals with its biggest enemy.
Behind the scenes, Rafael Grossi, Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency, said on Tuesday that work with Iran on its nuclear enrichment is “a work in progress”. At a press conference in New York, he said the latest report of his visit in March will be released soon but admitted “there are a number of issues we are still working with Iran on, with some we are making progress and with others, no, so it’s an ongoing thing and we haven’t reached an end station”, explaining that it is a “complex” array of issues as the IAEA seeks clarity on three locations being investigated.
However, whether the agency has really won greater oversight powers as agreed in March, is to be seen. The undeclared Marivan site near Abadeh, south of Esfahan, remains a hot topic. He said the IAEA is yet to implement the terms of the joint statement including additional monitoring capabilities for the IAEA.
Speaking to Axios, a White House National Security Council (NSC) spokesperson downplayed the speculation of a new deal circulating in Jerusalem. “There is no US discussion of an interim deal and no discussion of sanctions relief, or closing safeguards cases," the spokesperson said, meanwhile quoting a senior European diplomat who said that the US is indeed working with the Omanis on the Iranian issue.
Keeping mum on talks, the White House NSC spokesperson deferred to ‘security concerns’ as the reason for the lack of transparency, but admitted discussions centered around regional diplomacy, "of which Iran is one aspect.”
Axios claims the Israeli government is concerned about a possible push by the Biden administration for a “freeze for freeze” interim agreement with Iran, which will be subject of discussions for Israeli minister for strategic affairs Ron Dermer and National Security Adviser Tzachi Hanegbi who are expected to discuss these concerns during their visit to the White House tomorrow (Thursday).
Meanwhile, as diplomatic chess pieces continue to shift, the Korea Economic Daily reported on Tuesday that South Korea and the US are discussing ways to release $7 billion in Iranian funds held in South Korea, a South Korean debt for oil imports from Iran due to global sanctions.
Just like the high-profile case of British-Iranian dual-national Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe, held under ransom for a British debt to Iran, it is highly likely the deal has the same premise - cash for hostages. Currently there are three dual nationals with American citizenship and two individuals with US permanent residency held by Iran on trumped-up charges of espionage.
Speaking to NPR this week, the US envoy for Iran, Robert Malley, continued to stress that diplomacy is the Biden administration’s first choice. “I think it's been proven to be the most effective way and the most sustainable way to make sure that Iran doesn't acquire a bomb,” he said, claiming to have forged “a credible diplomatic path”.
In spite of the imbalance of attacks on the US personnel and bases in the Middle East versus retaliatory attacks carried out by the US, he still claims to also have “a credible deterrence path”. As of March, Iran had launched 83 attacks on the US in the likes of Iraq and Syria, with only four military responses, since the start of the Biden administration.
He said: “In other words, [the] president has said all options are on the table. You could imagine what that means. He has said explicitly that the military option will be on the table. It is far from the preferred option, but he will do what it takes to make sure Iran doesn't acquire a bomb. And we hope that we could resolve this through diplomatic means, and we're prepared to go down that path.”