Iranian Media, Pundits Discuss Iran-US ‘Understanding’
A foreign policy analyst in Tehran says that “an interim verbal nuclear agreement” with the United States cannot bring the long-term stability Iran needs.
A foreign policy analyst in Tehran says that “an interim verbal nuclear agreement” with the United States cannot bring the long-term stability Iran needs.
Former Iranian diplomat and scholar Kourosh Ahmadi wrote in an article last week that “If the 2015 nuclear deal [JCPOA] has lost its non-proliferation value…the objective should be improving it” instead of aiming for an interim and limited deal “that cannot last more than one or two years.”
Ahmadi called a possible interim deal a temporary fix that cannot overcome the chronic instability that disrupts and hinders Iran’s economic progress. Do we want just to patch things up for a short period of time, he asked, or put the country on the road to progress.
Referring to media reports about “a new wave of negotiations between Iran and the United States over an “understanding” or “a verbal agreement,” Etemad Online website pointed out in an analysis that Iranian officials have not provided any information about such an agreement, although they have confirmed that negotiations have taken place in Muscat, New York and Doha. US officials have also made minimal statements about the talks to swap prisoners and release Iran’s assets in Iraq but ruled out any talks over the JCPOA.
According to Etemad Online, it appears that Iran and the United States have reached an understanding about “stabilizing the current situation” and about some kind of “political cease-fire.” This will prevent crises at the points of contact, such as in Syria and the Persian Gulf. Etemad added that Iran on the other hand might be aiming for a détente with the United States alongside the rapprochement with Saudi Arabia, which can give Tehran access to its hard currency funds frozen abroad.
Etemad Online also opined that restored relations with Saudi Arabia can help Tehran achieve an agreement or an understanding with Washington. Based on the new deal Iran might agree not to enrich Uranium beyond 60 percent and stop installing new modern centrifuges while also promising to boost its cooperation with the IAEA, Etemad Online said, based on reports in Western media.
Also on the agenda of the negotiations are Iran’s cooperation with Russia in the war against Ukraine and the attacks on the US forces by Iran’s proxy groups in Iraq and Syria. The United States, on the other hand, will promise not to intensify the sanctions and instead, release more of Iran’s frozen assets abroad and facilitate Iran’s oil sales.
According to Nameh News website, Kambiz Mehdizadeh, an aide and son-in-law of former President Hassan Rouhani wrote in a tweet about the possibility of talks between Iran and the US: “An interim agreement or whatever you might call it is like a painkiller pill that can alleviate the symptoms of a cold. It can stop a runny nose, but it cannot help us to bring in foreign investments or help us purchase aircraft.”
On social media, Afifeh Abdi, an Iranian journalist and a foreign policy researcher, wrote in a June 22 tweet: “The ongoing negotiations over the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) are being furthered not because of the skill of Iran’s current negotiating team, but because of the strong US motivation to buy time and to keep Iran away from Russia and China. For the United States, these negotiations mean giving small concessions for strategic achievements!” Ms. Abdi added: “But what can Iran do? Iran has limited choices.”
In a comment under the post, a Twitter user wrote: “When Iran refuses to bring about essential economic reforms because its officials benefit from the ongoing corruption, and refuses to grant social liberties to the people, then the officials run the country on a day-to-day basis and try to get hold of hard currency to temporarily control the markets. Later, the United States will break its promises and the exchange rates will jump like a spring.”
In his weekly media briefing, spokesman Nasser Kanaani repeated the Iranian regime’s narrative of “decades of crimes” by the United States.
“Iran’s approach to America emanates from their hostile behavior, and as long as America’s behavior does not fundamentally change, it is natural that Iran’s attitude toward America remains the same,” Kanaani announced.
He was speaking in the context of improving relations with neighboring countries and reports of secret talks and even an ‘understanding’ with the United States.
The reality that Tehran and Washington have been holding mediated talks in Oman, Qatar and even having direct contacts in New York is all but certain. Numerous media reports and statements by Israeli officials have pointed to a possible unwritten deal, whereby the US would allow the release of Iran’s frozen funds in exchange for some temporary restraint in uranium enrichment.
The Biden administration has denied any such “interim deal” but few believe that some kind negotiation is not taking place behind the scenes.
Kanaani also added that Tehran does not link its foreign policy and pursuit of national interests to relations with any one country or one issue, referring to the United States and the dispute over its nuclear program.
However, Kanaani also spoke about exchanging prisoners, an issue that Washington has hinted is a subject of talks and can reduce tensions and possibly open the way for more agreements.
The Iranian spokesman said that the United States should free Iranian citizens that “the American regime has jailed based on various false excuses related to violating sanctions.” Kanaani said that US sanctions in essence are illegal, and Iran has been trying for years to free these prisoners.
The Iranian regime is currently holding three American dual-nationals hostage based on trumped-up charges of spying and after bogus trials without due process of law. On the other hand, individuals arrested in the US for violating sanctions have received the benefits of full and transparent trials.
Kanaani claimed that in the past and in different periods certain agreements were reached with Washington through intermediaries but when it came to implementation the US was not ready to make decisions. He confirmed that currently talks are taking place with the help of parties that have “goodwill” in this regard, but “we need to see if America is ready to make decisions or not.”
Earlier this month, the Biden administration allowed Iraq to release $2.7 billion it owed Iran for energy imports – part of a larger amount in Iraqi banks. This was seen as a gesture to reach a deal on prisoners, but so far nothing has been finalized.
It is not clear if the released funds will be made available to Tehran in cash US dollars or in credits that Iran can use to import food and medicine. No details were announced about the $2.7 billion released by Iraq. South Korea holds another $7 billion and apparently the unresolved issues in prisoner exchange revolves around these funds and how Iran can access the money.
At the same time, it is perhaps inevitable that release of the frozen funds and exchange of prisoners become entangled with the nuclear issue, especially if an interim deal is being discussed.
Ultraconservative lawmaker and former IRGC general Esmail Kowsari, who is a member of the Iranian parliament's National Security and Foreign Relations Committee is adamant that the challenge will not weaken Putin.
Kowsari said in an interview with Didban Iran website on Sunday that what happened in Russia was the work of Western infiltrators among the Wagner group.
"Certainly, the Westerners have their infiltrators among these forces. The West uses them to weaken the Russian front in the war against Ukraine, but this will inevitably harm the West's position."
Speaking on the impact of the Wagner rebellion on Russia's relations with Iran, Kowsari said: "The Russian army has orders from Putin to suppress the Wagner forces. The event is not likely to affect Tehran's ties with Moscow. We believe there is an easy solution for this problem and Russia is powerful enough to overcome the situation."
Referring to the Islamic Republic's alliance with Russia, Kowsari said that this does not mean “we are depending on Russia.” However, the two countries have commitments to each other.
In the meantime, one IRGC-linked Telegram channel, The Cyber Army of Iran, quoted Russian sources as saying on Saturday that Putin spoke over the phone with his Iranian counterpart Ebrahim Raisi but it did not elaborate on what the two spoke about. The report was not seen on any other platform and thus cannot be verified independently.
In another development, the former head of the Iranian parliament's National Security and Foreign Relations Committee, Heshmatollah Falahatpisheh, told Didban website that following Saturday's challenge by Wagner, Putin can no longer claim to be as powerful as before.
Although a conservative, Falahatpisheh is certainly not a hardliner and his foreign policy views are generally less ideological than those of politicians like Kowsari.
Falahatpisheh added that "It was naturally clear that Putin cannot have a stable future." He further remarked that "We are going back to the Yeltsin period."
He said: "Putin has learned all the lessons but one from Maciavelli.” That is where the Italian mastermind said, military objectives cannot be pursued by mercenaries, Falahatpisheh noted. He added that when Putin started to recruit criminals for the war, one could say that it was difficult for military commanders to establish a working relationship with the recruits.
Nonetheless, Falahatpisheh refused to characterize Wagner's challenge as a coup and described it as an armed mutiny. This was the description also used by Putin in his address on Saturday.
Meanwhile, the conservative pundit advised the Iranian government not to put national interests at risk by involvement in Russia’s or Putin’s affairs. Iran can easily become a victim of Putin pursuing his own domestic interests.
Falahatpisheh pointed out that what the IRGC-linked Telegram channel did on Saturday by voicing support for Putin was “hasty” and unnecessary.
He explained that "what is happening in Russia is the outcome of Putin's ambitious strategies and was quite foreseeable. During the past months we saw that Prigozhin started to behave aggressively, probably demanding a higher compensation for his men, and then protesting that he was not receiving enough logistical support."
Referring to the historic precedence, Falahatpisheh said Putin might behave like the Bolsheviks did in 1917 and sacrifice his foreign policy for his country's domestic politics. He opined that Putin might be able to defeat or isolate Wagner forces in the short run. But in the long run, he is no longer the same powerful man.
Masoud Daneshmand, member of the board of directors of the Center of Transport Institutions, told Iran's Labour News Agency (ILNA) that the main portion of the shipping company’s income is not obtained from shipment of goods, but rather from brokering cargo transportation deals between the government and foreign shipping companies.
According to him, the company -- commonly known by its business name IRISL Group – gets $50 for every ton of export and import cargoes but pays $40 to foreign firms and pockets $10 for every ton.
His comments came a few days after the IRISL Group announced a substantial increase in its income. Mohammad Modarres Khiabani, the CEO of the company, said last week that the income of the IRISL Group has hit a new record with a 20-percent rise in revenues, without mentioning its role as an intermediary.
Daneshmand has not explained why the government does not directly make contracts with foreign companies and keeps the $10 difference in its coffers.
Confirming that ports all over the world must obtain permission from the US Office of Foreign Assets Control to host Iranian ships, Daneshmand noted that most of Iran's shipping vessels are sanctioned and as a result they are inactive.
"If a port does not receive permission from the OFAC, they will be subject to secondary sanctions,” he added, claiming that some countries like China, India and South Africa have obtained licenses to accept Iranian ships, but the permits are only for a few special governmental ports and they cannot berth in all the ports.
Iran has been shipping oil and oil products despite US sanctions, imposed since 2018, to China and other buyers, using clandestine methods. Third parties involved in sanctions violations are subject to US punitive measures.
According to reports by tanker tracking companies, revenue from oil exports is still the regime’s single largest source of income. Iran uses a fleet of oil tankers, known as the 'ghost fleet,' to transport its crude from the country’s ports to open seas. Then the tankers turn off their transponders so that their location would not be known, and during a couple of days the barrels of oil are loaded on other ships, which then ship them to the final buyers.
In March, the United States imposed new sanctions on Iran-linked shipping and petrochemical companies, including two shipping firms based in China.
The sanctions also targeted 20 shipping vessels linked to firms in China, Vietnam and the United Arab Emirates, the Treasury Department's website showed.
The sanctions were issued under a 2018 US executive order that restored sanctions targeting Iran's oil, banking and transportation sectors.
In 2019, OFAC issued an advisory to alert the global shipping community involved in shipping petroleum or petroleum products from Iran. “These shipments create significant sanctions risk for entities and individuals in the shipping industry, including shipping companies, vessel owners, managers, operators, insurers, and financial institutions,” read the advisory.