In Veiled Reaction To Russia, Iran Calls For Dialog Over Kuril Islands
Feeling betrayed by Moscow’s support for UAE’s claim on three Iranian islands, a top official in Tehran has backed Japan’s demand for talks over the Kuril Islands.
Feeling betrayed by Moscow’s support for UAE’s claim on three Iranian islands, a top official in Tehran has backed Japan’s demand for talks over the Kuril Islands.
During a meeting with Japan’s ambassador to Iran Aikawa Kazutoshi, Kamal Kharrazi, the head of Iran’s Strategic Council on Foreign Relations and a foreign policy advisor to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, said that the best way to resolve the territorial dispute between Japan and Russia over the four islands is through “direct negotiations.”
At the end of World War II, Russia annexed the Kuril Islands in the Pacific Ocean to its territory, but Japan calls these islands the Northern Territory and considers them “occupied by Russia.”
Talking about the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the possible consequences of the crisis for Japan and its surrounding environment, the Japanese envoy said that since the war has started, Russia has halted bilateral negotiations with Japan regarding the occupation of the Kuril Islands.
Kharrazi stated that as a matter of principle, Tehran is against any military intervention and violation of the sovereignty and territorial integrity of countries, and the best solution is bilateral talks to resolve the Kuril islands dispute.
This was exactly the position Russia took last week regarding three Iranian islands in the Persian Gulf contested by the United Arab Emirates.
In a joint Russia-GCC statement at a meeting, held in Moscow on July 10, Russia voiced support for the UAE's demand to hold talks about sovereignty over Greater Tunb, Lesser Tunb, and Abu Musa Iranian islands.
The statement called for "bilateral negotiations or the International Court of Justice, in accordance with the rules of international law and the United Nations Charter, to resolve this issue in accordance with international legitimacy".
Iranian media, opposition activists and ordinary Iranians were outraged over Moscow’s move and viewed the regime’s reactions not strong enough.
Qasem Mohebbali, a former senior diplomat who headed the Middle East division of the foreign ministry, criticized the regime’s pro-Russia and anti-West foreign policy as the reason why Iran’s allies are teaming up with its regional rivals, noting that Russia and China believe that no matter what they say or do, Tehran will continue to support them over Ukraine, Tibet and Taiwan.
Mohebbali said that China and Russia care more about their relations with Arab countries than with Iran. “Apparently, Iran's friends do not pay much attention to Iran's demands and pay more attention to the rivals’ [Arab] demands,” he said.
In its Thursday edition, conservative newspaper Jomhouri Eslami wrote in a strongly worded editorial: "This is not going to be Russia's last treason against Iran." The daily added: "Foreign Ministry officials should not think that this episode will end by summoning Russia's ambassador. We need an essential revision of our political relations with Russia and forcing Russian statesmen to regret their treason against the Iranian nation."
Asked why Moscow undermined Iran's territorial integrity," international relations analyst Mehdi Motaharnia told Khabar Online that "Russia wishes to put an end to its isolation by sacrificing Iran's interests." Meanwhile, he called Iranian officials' mild reaction "a withdrawal from revolutionary positions."
The Foreign Ministry summoned Russia's ambassador and Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdolahian and government spokesman Ali Bahadori wrote in separate tweets that "Iran will not compromise over its national interests and territorial integrity." However, Tehran’s official reaction to Russia has been meek. Social media users said officials had indeed made a compromise by not naming Russia in their tweets.
Vowing “a strong response” to such moves, foreign ministry spokesman Naser Kanaani said that Iran “views the interference of any party, including the UAE and Russia, as unacceptable and rejects it.
The United Arab Emirates has repeatedly laid claim to the islands, describing the situation as “the continued occupation by the Islamic Republic of Iran.”
The three islands fell under British control in 1921 but on November 30, 1971, a day after British forces left the region and just two days before the UAE was to become an official federation, Mohammad Reza Shah sent the Iranian navy to secure all three. Iranian forces remain on the islands, with only Abu Musa having a civilian population which is less than two thousand.
The Pentagon said Monday that it will send additional F-35 and F-16 fighter jets, along with a warship to the Middle East, in a bid to monitor key waterways in the region following Iran's seizure and harassment of commercial shipping vessels in recent months.
Meanwhile, in a telephone conversation on Monday US President Joe Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu discussed security challenges Iran poses in the region.
“The two consulted on our close coordination to counter Iran, including through regular and ongoing joint military exercises. They noted that U.S. that the US-Israel partnership remains a cornerstone in preventing Iran from ever acquiring a nuclear weapon," White House strategic coordinator John Kirby said.
In May, the White House had announced that the Biden administration would be making a series of moves in the region, but at the time did not say what it would include.
"The (Pentagon) is increasing our presence and ability to monitor the (Strait of Hormuz) and surrounding waters," Pentagon spokeswoman Sabrina Singh told reporters. It was not clear where exactly the additional jets would be placed and how long they would stay in the region.
A Pentagon official had said earlier that F-16 fighters will be placed in the region, but Monday’s announcement included more weapons systems.
Iran’s latest attempts to interfere with commercial shipping occurred earlier this month when it tried to seize two vessels. The US Navy announced July 5 that it prevented Iranian naval forces from diverting the vessels including the Richmond Voyager, a super tanker managed by Chevron in the Strait of Hormuz, the narrowest part of the Persian Gulf.
Since 2019, there have been a series of attacks on shipping in strategic Persian Gulf waters at times of tension between the United States and Iran. The Revolutionary Guard has seized or attacked 15 vessels since 2019, according to US NAVY. Over the years, Iranian speedboats also harassed US Navy ships, sometimes in dangerous maneuvers.
About a fifth of the world's crude oil and oil products passes through the Strait of Hormuz, a choke point between Iran and Oman.
With the 2015 Iran nuclear deal effectively dead, Iran's relations with the West have deteriorated over the last year, with Iran supplying hundreds of kamikaze drones to Russia that have been regularly used to attack civilian and infrastructure targets in Ukraine. The US and its allies have warned Tehran to seize its military cooperation with Moscow that can expand into supplying ballistic missile later this year when a UN restriction on Iran expires.
Due to former US President Donald Trump's withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear deal and President Joe Biden not being able to revive it, Iran has been accumulating more enriched uranium and could make the fissile material for one bomb in 12 days or so, according to US estimates, down from a year when the accord was in force.
Iran denies seeking nuclear weapons, which the West sees as a threat to Israel and Persian Gulf Arab oil exporters. But its enrichment of uranium to 60-percent purity has no civilian purpose and can only be for further enrichment to above 90-percent needed for building nuclear weapons.
Iran also probably wants to use escalatory tactics to force Washington to accept its terms in recently reported diplomatic contacts between the two sides aimed at some sort of a deal over Americans held hostage by Tehran.
Iran wants Washington to agree to around $20 billion of its frozen funds in third countries to be released, which would be significant for its beleaguered economy. Iraq holds around $10 billion of debts to Iran, while South Korean banks hold another $7 billion.
Javad Hossein-Zadeh was removed from his position as the head of the only government institution issuing statistics on the struggling economy, which somewhat differed from frequent rosy claims and predictions by the president and his immediate aides. He was replaced by Daryush Abouhamzeh, who will serve as the interim head for the moment.
Although Iran's Statistics Center is administered and funded by the government and operates under the umbrella of Planning and Budget Organization, it maintained a veneer of credibility as one of the very scarce sources of data – both economic and social.
The central bank and the ministry of the economy stopped issuing regular economic data in 2019 as US sanctions imposed the previous year pushed an already struggling economy into a deep recession.
In the absence of credible data by the Central Bank of Iran about the inflation rates, Iran's Statistics Center became the primary official entity announcing these figures. Government officials and sometimes the central bank announced lower inflation figures prices for consumer goods.
Abouhamzeh, who was appointed as the economic deputy of the Planning and Budget Organization two months ago, is apparently a graduate of Tehran and Sharif universities in economics. He previously served as a deputy at the Ministry of Cooperatives, Labour, and Social Welfare in 2021.
In that position he was not always honest with official statistics. Once he famously put the poverty line in Iran so way off that his video went viral at the time. Following reactions, it was announced that Abouhamzeh’s data were at least two years old.
An intriguing development surrounding the Iran Statistics Center is that its official website has remained inaccessible for the past three days without any official explanation.
Also on Monday, reformist daily Etemad said that the head of the Social Security Organization was "dismissed," citing informed sources. Mirhashem Mosavi was reportedly replaced by one of his deputies. The public relations department of the organization has denied the news.
Reports of recent changes in leadership positions of organizations in charge of data about Iran may further raise concerns about the accuracy and transparency of economic indicators in the country.
Last week, lawmaker Gholamreza Nouri Ghezeljeh insisted that the annual inflation rate in Iran is 120 percent, not even 60 or 70 percent as various politicians and academics cite, adding that lower inflation figures close to 40 percent presented by some officials, who claim they have controlled rising prices, is the product of their imagination.
The Iranian government claims to have controlled the inflation rate at about 40 percent. However, as Ghezeljeh noted, "Playing with figures will not solve the problem of Iran's economy. High inflation cannot be concealed from the people as they find out about it when they purchase goods in their everyday life "
The rial’s catastrophic drop tells the story of inflation in Iran. The currency has lost its value 13-fold since 2018. Price inflation is highest in the food sector, which even last year was estimated to have been between 70-100 percent. The country must import a large part of its food, animal feed, medicines, raw materials, and finished goods it needs. As the local currency loses value on the backdrop of international isolation over the regime’s policies, imports become more expensive and higher prices must be passed on to consumers.
Although large-scale anti-regime protests in 2022 and 2023 were driven by social and political oppression, but widespread deprivation also fuels hopelessness among young people.
Ruling hardliners are increasingly pushing members of other camps out of the political arena, and this partly explains purge of officials.
However last week, prominent economist Mehdi Pazouki told Didban Iran website that government officials have humiliated the nation in the name of their revolutionary approach. Pazouki said, in an unprecedented and daring statement, "One of Khomeini's mistakes was allowing clerics to intervene in the country's social and executive affairs."
He was referring to the founder of the Islamic Republic, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini who after the 1979 revolution gradually expelled independent-minded people from the government and increasingly relied on clerics that he knew had no experience in running a country.
Pazouki added that Iranian clerics can do their biggest service to Islam by migrating back to the seminaries. He further criticized officials for their lack of discipline in foreign relations and administrative affairs and said that as a result of government policies, banking in Iran lags behind other countries by at least 40 years.
Ahmad Alirezabeigi, a member of the Iranian parliament who is known for disclosing a major bribery case involving at least 75 other lawmakers and a former Industry Minister, accused officials of evading their responsibility and adding insult to injury by making statements that blame the people for the government's shortcomings.
He further accused state officials of mismanaging resources and failing to provide the conditions for the minimum means of livelihood. Alirezabeigi added that government policies stifle investments and make the economy more dependent on state enterprises.
While the country is suffering from energy and water shortage, the government creates obstacles for investment in these areas. It wants to do everything by itself but is incapable of completing any project.
This approach will inevitably lead to capital flight from the country, and add to public discontent.
Criticizing the government's economic policies, economist Pazouki highlighted the fact that Iran’s currency has lost its value 12-fold in five years, bringing inflation and misery to the people. He argued that government foreign and domestic policies have stifled an export-oriented economy.
As a result, the government is spending more than its income leading to a huge budget deficit. "The main problem is in our governance. Our economy is hostage to our pending political decisions," he said, adding that although there are so many capable individuals in Iran, most current officials are much less qualified than former statesmen."
As an example, he said: "Just compare the current foreign minister to his predecessor, and you will find out that we have gone back by at least 40 years.
Expounding on the causes of Iran's rising inflation, Pazouki said: "Last year, Iraq sold $120 billion of oil while Iran's oil export was less than a quarter of that, and we still have not repatriated the money for the oil we have sold." He added: "We are likely to have even more problems if we refuse to come to terms with the world and follow a reasonable foreign policy," referring to the nuclear dispute with the West and crippling US sanctions.
In another developing, offering a way out of the problem, political commentator Abbas Abdi suggested that the government should find out about the true public mood and what ordinary people say.
“Send your agents to mingle with the people on the buses, subways, in the bazaar and shopping centers to talk with citizens and record what they say about their problems and needs.”
Abdi likened the perception of officials about the problems of ordinary folks to the elephant in the darkroom analogy in which everyone has a different perception of the elephant. Abdi suggested: "Turn the lights on and see the elephant!"