Iran International
Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) has witnessed another massive exodus of capital recently with its main index dropping below the critical two million mark earlier this week.
Closing at 1.95m points on Monday after weeks of turbulence, the main index dropped to the levels seen in mid-March. By Wednesday it rose again to slightly over 2 million points.
But this appears to have done little to reassure neither small investors who have withdrawn much of their capital from TSE in recent weeks for the fear of losing all, nor big investment firms.
“The continuation of negative tremors has a key message [for investors]. It is a signal that speeded up the exodus of big investors and resulted in distrust in the market,” Donya-ye Eghtesad newspaper, which focuses on business and economy, wrote Tuesday.
Experts say there are several reasons for TSE’s troubles these days but the decision of the government earlier this week to increase the price of gas it sells to industries which particularly affects the hard currency earning petrochemical industries was the major reason for the capital outflow from TSE.
The few industries with export markets such as steel and petrochemical represent most of the trading in the exchange.
According to Donya-ye Eghtesad, however, in the past few days shares of most companies have dropped irrespective of whether their value is gauged in hard currency, like exporters, or in the national currency rial, such as construction firms and automakers.
“The massive collapse of the stock market is intentional and the managed work of the government,” Dr Mahsima Pooyafard, US-based university professor, said in a tweet Tuesday, arguing that the government of President Ebrahim Raisi has announced several economic decisions such as increasing certain tariffs that highly affect the profitability of the stock market and drive people to dump their stocks. The collapse of the stock market, she said, would help the government to resolve some of its own cash problems.
The index has been in decline due to political uncertainties since May 7, a day dubbed as “the Black Monday of TSE”, with a handful of small peaks when hopes for reviving Iran’s 2015 nuclear deal helped the index rise momentarily.
Since the United States imposed economic sanction on Iran in 2018, the stock market has risen 24-fold. Half of this astonishing rise is because the Iranian currency has fallen 12-fold in the same period and the market has experienced share price inflation.
This phenomenon, the 12-fold rise of the index in real terms, contradicts other economic indices and prices.
Economic journalist Ehsan Soltani in Tehran has pointed out that based on official statistics, since the first quarter of the Iranian calendar year starting on March 21, 2017, Iran's GDP, consumption by families, and the minimum wage have increased by 750, 550, and 470 percent (in rials), respectively.
“But the value of TSE companies has grown by 2,450 percent and the dollar exchange rate by 1,270 percent,” he wrote and argued that the massive increase in the value of TSE companies is not normal and has only been achievable through government manipulation.
Capital market analysts predict funds withdrawn from the TSE by small investors flow to the parallel gold, property, and foreign exchange markets. This will push the exchange rates up and let the government sell its own petrodollars at a higher rate.
The government decision to sell its own assets through the TSE in early 2020, when the index stood at less than 500,000 points, is often cited as an example of manipulation of the stock market.
Small investors were encouraged by the government of President Hassan Rouhani to commit capital to the market amid the decline in the value of the rial. The index rose to 2 million points by mid-year but soon tumbled down to 1.2 million, wiping out the savings of small investors.
At the time, the Rouhani’s hardliner critics alleged that the government had intentionally drawn people to invest in the stock market, mostly representing public and quasi-public companies, to remedy its huge budget deficit.
Mohammad-Reza Gharaei Ashtiani was asked on Wednesday about the status of the deal – which was purportedly finalized last year. He replied the country has the capability to produce the fighters domestically, suggesting a possible shift in plans.
Iranian officials announced on several occasions during the past few years that Russia would sell several Sukhoi Su-35 fighter jets to Iran, but such claims never yielded any results.
Ashtiani, who sounded reluctant to provide any details, said: "At some point, we made a deal for the purchase, but we came to the conclusion that we have the ability to produce (fighter jets) in the country." However, he also mentioned that the authorities are "investigating the situation" and could reconsider the purchase if deemed necessary.
In 2018, Iran said it had started production of the locally designed Kowsar fighter for use in its air force. Some military experts believe the jet is a carbon copy of an F-5 first produced in the United States in the 1960s.
Different scenarios have been speculated as to the reason behind the collapse of the deal with Russia. There are speculations that Israel may have influenced Russia's decision to withhold the advanced fighters from Iran. The American government has also expressed concerns about the extensive military cooperation between Russia and Iran, considering it potentially harmful to regional stability.
A more plausible explanation was given by aviation expert and author Babak Taghvaee, who said the obstacle is Russia's refusal to transfer crucial technology for producing Su-35 parts in Iran and providing knowledge for domestic maintenance for the next 30 years.
He cited Commander of the Iranian Army’s Air Force Brigadier General Hamid Vahedi as telling his sources that "for now, the General Staff of the Armed Forces has opposed procurement of Su-35SE multirole fighter jets from Russia as Russian government refuses to transfer technology for production of their parts in Iran as well as to provide the knowledge for maintaining the aircraft domestically for the next 30 years."
Taghvaee added that Russians want to sell only 25 Su-35Es previously ordered by Egypt without proper maintenance, weapons, spare part support and simulators.
“On the basis of the lessons learned from the sale and delivery of Su-30SM fighter jets to Armenia and the insidious decision of the Russian government for not allowing Armenians to operate them against Azerbaijan during the recent Karabakh war, it is highly possible that the untrustworthy Russians do the same to the Iranian air force in case of their intention for using Su-35SEs in war," he added.
In September, Vahedi said that buying Su-35s is on the agenda of the Air Force but the country has no plans to buy Sukhoi Su-30s, both developed from Sukhoi Su-27 which was a Soviet-origin twin-engine supermaneuverable fighter aircraft. Su-35 is single-seat but Su-30 is a two-seat, multi-role fighter. According to reports, the Army’s Air Force needs at least 64 aircraft, 24 of which will come from Egypt's order which remained undelivered due to US pressure on Cairo.
Iran has also expressed interest in obtaining other advanced military tech from its partner in crime such as air-defense system S-400, a mobile, surface-to-air missile system. Iran has supplied hundreds of kamikaze drones to Russia that have been used to target Ukraine's military and civilian infrastructure. Moscow denies that its forces use Iranian-built drones in Ukraine, although many have been shot down and recovered there.
Iran’s air force has only a few dozen strike aircraft: Russian jets as well as ageing US models acquired before the Iranian revolution of 1979. Instead, Iran has developed a variety of drones and missiles seen as a threat for other regional countries, especially Israel.
Earlier this week, the Israeli army successfully dropped bunker-busting bombs intended for the destruction of special trenches from its F-35 fighters, the Israeli Channel 14 reported, highlighting it as a clear message to Iran. Israel is the second country in the world after the US to test this capability, according to the report.
London-based consultancy company Henley & Partners, which publishes rankings and reports on global mobility, investment and wealth migration trends, placed Iran on the 92nd position in its latest Henley Passport Index.
According to the company’s Global Mobility Report 2023 Q3, the ranking of the passport has risen by seven steps compared to the figure in the first quarter of this year, although the number of destinations accessible to Iranians without a prior visa has increased just by one country, reaching a total of 44.
It means that Iran’s passport grants visa-free or visa-on-arrival access in 44 destinations. The index, which includes 199 different passports and 227 different travel destinations, is updated quarterly. The index is based on exclusive data from the International Air Transport Association (IATA) – the most extensive and accurate travel information database -- and is further enhanced by Henley & Partners' research team.
Iran shares its spot with Eritrea and Sudan – both granted easy access to 44 destinations. Iran's passport is weaker that those of Congo, South Sudan, Nigeria, and Myanmar and stronger than Kosovo, Libya, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and North Korea.
Before the 1979 revolution, as Iran was a fast modernizing country with a strong economy, its passport enjoyed visa-free status in most European countries, when global travel was more limited than today.
After five years of Japan's dominance, Singapore now tops the list with visa-free access to 193 destinations, similar to Germany, Italy, and Spain.
Given the fact that countries can share spots in the ranking, and although Iran is placed on the 92nd spot, there are only 14 passports worse than that of Iran. Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Pakistan, Yemen, Somalia, and the Palestinian Territory sit on rock-bottom with insignificant changes since the last report.
Most of the countries with which the Islamic Republic has agreed to visa waivers or reduced entry restrictions are located in Africa or South America, such as Venezuela, Bolivia, Ecuador, or former Soviet republics like Kazakhstan. Several countries, including the United States, Canada, Israel, and Morocco, still do not have an embassy or consular section in Iran.
Earlier in July, Ali-Asghar Shalbafian, the deputy in the ministry of tourism, claimed that Iran is considering the possibility of unilaterally waiving visas for 60 countries.
Over the past decade, Iranian authorities have made repeated claims regarding visa waiver agreements, including with their ally Russia. However, Russia still demands visas.
For Iranians, getting visas for developed countries, including those of the Schengen area in the European Union, has always been challenging. In recent years, the obstacles have intensified, so have the number of Iranians who seek to leave the country.
During the peak of antigovernment nationwide protests in 2022, reports emerged about certain European countries refusing to issue Schengen visas in Tehran.
Although some of these countries officially denied the reports or responsibility for such actions, sources within European embassies in Iran confirmed the reports.
In October, the French Embassy in Tehran denied the visa issuance suspension as "common rumors in the virtual space," claiming that "The problems are entirely beyond our control.” In a statement, it said "Due to internet filtering, which Iranian authorities have decided to implement, the French embassy is temporarily unable to process a large volume of files.”
The problems are not limited to Western countries. The Islamic Republic's embassy in Baku recently announced that based on a decision by the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry, issuing visas upon arrival for Iranian citizens has been suspended.
Apart from the difficulties in obtaining visas, Iranians also face challenges in extending their stays or accessing banking and insurance systems in the countries that allow them in with fewer restrictions.
Turkey, which has been a very popular destination for Iranians seeking refuge from uncertainties of life in Iran, has ceased issuing residence permits to Iranians based on rent contracts, which used to be a common practice in Turkey. Although official regulations have not changed, Iranians are rejected by the immigration office or at banks without providing any explanation to the applicants.
Concerns about people fleeing Iran and possible destabilizing actions in other countries by Islamic Republic agents are prime reasons for widespread travel restrictions. Prior to the 1979 revolution, which led to the ouster of Mohammad Reza Shah, Iranians could travel without visas throughout Western Europe, with the exceptions of Austria and Switzerland.