Iran Invests In Syrian Weapons Plants Amid Poverty At Home
New research shows Iran’s investment into weapons plants in Syria continues, at the expense of the Iranian people suffering the worst economic crisis in decades.
New research shows Iran’s investment into weapons plants in Syria continues, at the expense of the Iranian people suffering the worst economic crisis in decades.
Israel’s Alma, an institute focused on threats to northern Israel, has revealed in a detailed report that “Iran’s major focus is to develop and manufacture precision missiles and rockets, cruise missiles, and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) on Syrian soil”.
Operations are centered around the CERS Center, which is the heart of Syria's military industry. Established in 1971, the institute has transformed into a collaborative platform involving Syria, Iran, and Hezbollah since the beginning of the civil war, according to Alma's statement.
Security monitoring has been intensified by the Quds Force and Hezbollah’s security unit in Syria, Unit 9000. Iran’s control has become almost absolute, with a full-time presence of senior IRGC Quds Force Officers at the site.
In 2020, it was revealed by a prominent lawmaker that Iran had spent between $20 billion and $30 billion in Syria to prop up President Bashar al-Assad and fight Islamic State but as revelations of Iran’s growing industrial capabilities continue, the true number is believed to be far higher.
“We have probably paid $20-30 billion to Syria, and we have to take that money back,” Heshmatollah Falahatpisheh, a member of the Iranian parliament's national security committee, said in an interview with Etemad Online at the time. Little has changed since, regime activities in Syria seeming to only step up, not down.
In May, Iran International reported that based on leaked documents from the Iranian foreign ministry, that Syria owes Iran $50 billion.
Iranians often express strong disapproval of the regime’s regional policy of establishing and supporting militant groups and its involvement in Syria, while inflation has surpassed 50 percent in Iran. The national currency has fallen 12-fold in the past five years and nearly half of the population lives below the poverty line. Slogans during nationwide anti-regime protests since 2017 have called for stopping aid to Hezbollah and Palestinian militants.
Over the years, Syria’s CERS Center has been shown to be accountable for the research, development, and military production of advanced weapons such as surface-to-surface missiles such as the M-600 / Fateh-110 missile, which is “at the heart of the joint Iranian-Syrian and Hezbollah precision project", Alma reported. More alarmingly, it states that “the CERS Center is responsible for developing and manufacturing chemical, biological, and potentially nuclear weapons”.
Alma believes Syria now “possesses extensive chemical capabilities,” which it believes to be “a guarantee of its survival”. More alarmingly, the researchers warn that it could be these very chemical weapons which pose the next greatest threat to Israel.
“At will, this capability may benefit the radical Shiite axis led by Iran in general and Hezbollah in particular. Hezbollah’s use of chemical weapons in the next confrontation with Israel cannot be ruled out.
“It is conceivable that missiles/rockets armed with chemical weapons (such as Sarin nerve gas) are being stockpiled for use by Hezbollah in one of the CERS center’s sites in the Masyaf area and will be transferred to Lebanon if so directed,” claimed Alma’s assessment. “We estimate with a high probability that in a situation of war, Israel will attack the chemical weapons stockpiles wherever they are, in Syria and/or Lebanon.”
Just last year, Syrian Prime Minister Hussein Arnous announced that he would welcome Iranian companies seeking to partner with economic institutions in Syria, under the pretext of serving the reconstruction process and carrying out investment projects.
Also last year, the Iranian minister of roads and urban construction visited Damascus where contracts were signed in the fields of transport, investment, petroleum products and infrastructure, all the while in Iran, thousands of citizens are still dying on the treacherous roads and suffering the consequences of its dire infrastructure.
Iranian economic expansion in Syria means giving Tehran the leverage to exercise control after the war, which means long-term influence in Syria, even without the need for a military presence.
This influence means that the regime can also be within shorter striking distance of its archenemy Israel, as was seen earlier this year when a multi-front attack saw Israel bombarded with rockets from Gaza, Lebanon and Syria as Iran’s wrath surrounded the Jewish state via its collection of proxy militias.
During the past year, Iranian officials including President Ebrahim Raisi said several times that the assets were to be released soon. However, this has repeatedly proved to be a tactic to defend a crumbling national currency.
Lawmaker Shahryar Haidari told the press Monday that "If Seoul does not pay back Iran's oil money, we might have to severe Iran's ties with South Korea." However, he did not say what can Iran gain by cutting off its ties with South Korea.
Two Seoul banks hold $7 billion from imports of Iranian oil that are frozen due to US financial sanctions on Tehran.
The frozen funds have been the subject of long negotiations between Tehran, Seoul and Washington over the past two years, as the Biden administration launched talks with Iran in April 2021 to revive the JCPOA. Many reports and statements point to possible release of the funds in exchange for several US citizens held hostage in Iran.
Both the nuclear and the prisoner release talks have not made meaningful progress. However, US officials say that efforts to secure the release of four Americans continue. Apparently, one US condition is to set up a mechanism for the disbursement of the funds for purchasing only non-sanctionable goods by Iran such as food and medicine.
Haidari claimed that "Korea had promised to repatriate Iran's money via Oman. We accepted that solution, but the Koreans refused to send the money with various pretexts."
Iran’s government submitted a bill to parliament July 29 to approve sending the case of the frozen funds to arbitration.
Khabar Online website in Tehran wrote that $7 billion of Iran's oil money has been frozen in South Korea for four years, but despite Korea's willingness to continue its ties and trade with Tehran, it has not been able to return the money because of US sanctions.
Oman had offered to mediate between Iran, South Korea and the United States, but this has not been fruitful yet, apparently because Tehran and Washington have not reached a deal on releasing four Americans held in Tehran.
Iran badly needs hard currency to solve at least part of its daunting economic problems, which have given rise to political instability, including protests and strikes across the country.
In another development, former lawmaker Iraj Nadimi told Nameh News website that the government is under pressure by the people who ask if they have really sold a lot of oil and if Iran's frozen assets have been released why they cannot see its impact on the economy.
Nadimi stated that it is a legitimate demand by the nation to improve their living standards. They should know where Iran’s money is if frozen assets in Iraq and South Korea have been released. The US in June allowed Iraq, which also hold frozen funds to release $2.7 billion, but only to be used for non-sanctionable payments, meaning essential needs.
The Iranian government made a lot of fuss during the past two weeks by claiming that part of Iran's assets in Iraq was released and is now in Oman.
Meanwhile, Faraz daily website also questioned the government's claim and sarcastically asked: "Haven't the frozen assets been released?" The website further stressed that the government's announcement about filing a complaint and referring the matter to arbitration reveals that it has been lying to the nation so far about those assets.
In another development, Alaeddin Borujerdi, the Chairman of the Sino-Iranian Friendship Association, denied that Iran has frozen assets in China too. He claimed the two countries' central banks coordinate payments.
The Iranian government has declared a national holiday on Wednesday and Thursday, with speculations that it could extend to Saturday, claiming that the move is to safeguard the well-being of its citizens as temperatures soar.
Pedram Pakain, the spokesperson of the Health Ministry, said the holidays may be extended due to the heatwave, a statement reiterated by Interior Minister Ahmad Vahidi.
Social media, where Iranians still freely voice their thoughts on the truths behind the regime's trickery, saw many voicing concern that the national holidays could be a prelude to raise fuel prices, an impending eventuality that the government keeps postponing in fear of its consequences.
Iranians have seen far hotter days and no shutdowns in the past. Reformist activist and former political prisoner Hadi Mehrani shared a letter by Iran’s Prosecutor-General Mohammad Jafar Montazeri, who has ordered prosecutors across the country to summon leaders of Women, Life, Liberty protests – the ones no longer in prison – to warn them against organizing fresh protests ahead of the anniversary of the death of Mahsa Amini that sparked the uprising in September. He suggested that the holidays may be related to the mass call-out.
Payam-e Ma newspaper cited an informed yet unnamed source from the Energy Ministry as saying that the reason behind the shutdown was the country's electricity shortages. The constant rise in temperatures and decrease in rainfall across the country in the last decade have made electricity supply a challenge during peak consumption periods that happen in summers in Iran. In July, Iran’s electricity usage hit a record of 72,500 megawatts, increasing strain on power grids that were already struggling to meet demand.
"High temperature and increased electricity consumption in the past days have led the hydroelectric power plants of Karun-3 and Karun-4 dams – on the Iranian river with the highest water flow -- to produce electricity beyond their nominal capacity," the daily said. The power plants were reportedly generating electricity for more than 20 hours per day in the past several days, leading to a "depletion of water resources," which caused the plants to "temporarily cease production."
Power plant capacity and fuel supply are both inadequate to meet demand, and blackouts regularly happen in summer. Even so, Iran exports electricity to Iraq. In dire need of significant investment, Iran's electricity sector has failed to realize its annual growth plan for several years in a row, while consumption continues to grow, in part driven by extremely low prices.
The country needs at least five to seven percent electricity generation growth annually to address the increase in domestic demand. It has been an ongoing problem for the country which has one of the biggest natural oil and gas reserves in the world. In 2021, mass protests erupted after nationwide blackouts. With current tensions and an ongoing economic crisis, another mass breakdown could revive the unrest which has swept the country since September.
Iranian environmentalist Kaveh Madani -- the former deputy head of Iran's department of environment who heads the United Nations University Institute for Water, Environment and Health, reacted to the theories in a thread of tweets on Wednesday, stating that Iran’s bankruptcy of water, electricity, and gas cannot be solved by simply shutting down the country.
“Even if you build hundreds of dams, without proper management, the water will eventually run out!” he said, explaining that the problem of “Iran’s water, gas and electricity bankruptcy cannot be solved by shutting down just as the problem of dust and air pollution was not solved by shutting down.”
Madani added that the roots of Iran’s gas bankruptcy bear striking resemblance to the roots of its water bankruptcy but there is a crucial difference in the water and energy sectors: Iran's water is naturally limited, but the country holds one of the world's largest natural gas reserves.
Echoing the same argument, Nikahang Kowsar, a water issues analyst, told Iran International that a lack of planning for the use of renewable energy and disregarding climate change in the regime’s development policies have brought Iran to a point of no return.
No matter what the reason behind the shutdowns, Iranians are worried. Worried that it may be a ploy to avert their attention from something bigger and worried that regular shutdowns will be their new normal because they have seen that the regime is incapable of solving such problems for good.