Iran International
An official on Sunday told the parliament that immigrants in Iran number over 8 million despite interior minister’s much lower figure of five million last month.
Interior minister Ahmad Vahidi had reported this lower figure on September 27, stating that there were "around five million Afghans in Iran." However, Mohsen Najafikhah provided a substantially higher estimate of 8.4 million immigrants.
Afghans, often referred to simply as ‘foreign nationals’ by officials and the media, make up the majority of immigrants in Iran. The census of 2016 found the presence of over 1.5 million Afghans followed by 34,500 Iraqis and 14,320 Pakistanis.
“The question is whether the number of foreign nationals in the country has increased since [September] or the statistics offered by the interior minister was not right,” Faraz Daily news website asked Monday.
Afghans first came to Iran as refugees in early 1980s and later as economic migrants but before the Taliban takeover of the government in Afghanistan in 2021 their numbers rarely rose above two million. Around 780,000 had obtained refugee status and were not considered illegals.
In April 2022, Javad Hedayati, the director general of the International Transit Bureau of the Transportation Organization, reported a significant increase in the number of Afghans entering Iran through official borders since the Taliban takeover. He stated that the number had risen to as many as 5,000, compared to the previous range of 700-800. Notably, there were no available statistics on the number of illegal immigrants.
The government has not taken any steps to slow down the deluge of refugees, leading to accusations that the clerical regime might have sinister plans to use the Afghans, who speak Persian, for political or military aims.
In late September, a member of the parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, Mahmoud Ahmadi-Bighash, disclosed plans to grant Iranian citizenship to legal Afghan immigrants. Ahmadi-Bighash claimed they number between eight to ten million.
According to Ahmadi-Bighash, a former governor of the northeastern North Khorasan Province, the primary aim of the plan is “population transfer” and legalizing the presence of millions of Afghan immigrants.
Referring to the parliament’s approval of a bill to establish a “national immigration organization” in November 2022, he claimed that those behind the plan want to “facilitate the entry and residence” of Afghan citizens.
In recent weeks, the government’s political rivals have repeatedly warned about its “open borders” policy and the possibility of hidden agenda with hardliners responding to such criticism by accusing critics of inciting “Afghan-phobia” amid fast-growing anti-Afghan sentiments on social media and violence against the immigrants.
Some government critics claim authorities are actively encouraging the growth of the Afghan population with incentives such as subsidized energy and food to remedy the problem of population decline or even to bolster its military by recruiting young Shiite Hazara Afghans.
During the Sunday session, lawmakers assigned the interior ministry the task of establishing a national immigration organization in collaboration with the Secretariat of the Supreme National Security Council.
The government claims that by forming such an organization it will be able to “systematize” the data on foreign nationals’ entry, exit and expulsion for which, according to Najafikhah, ten different government departments are currently responsible.
Government’s critics allege that the plan may be a cover for naturalizing Afghans in Iran. “A national immigration organization, if formed, can easily turn into an organization for issuing residence permits,” Faraz Daily’s report said.
The report pointed out that the government bill includes provisions for offering a series of services – including access to national insurance and benefits – to foreign nationals without citation of allocated budget.
“It is not clear whether the country’s economy is capable of offering these services to so many immigrants, just the same as it is still not clear how many of the 8.4 million are legal immigrants and how many are illegal (undocumented),” the report said.
Speaking at a gathering in Tehran, the anti-Israel and anti-West leader of the Islamic Republic, also accused the United States of being a partner in what he called Israeli crimes.
With his usual rhetoric, Khamenei said, “The wounded and wrecked occupier regime seeks revenge for the blows dealt by the resilient Palestinian fighters in Gaza, but undoubtedly, despite all the support of the wicked oppressors and the explicit collusion of the Americans in the crimes of the Zionists, all this injustice and aggression ultimately leads to nowhere, and in these matters and future events, victory belongs to the Palestinian nation."
The Iranian regime immediately congratulated Hamas on October 7, as the news of the terror raid and the mass killing of civilians was being received. Later, the government organized street celebrations and began issuing statements of support for Hamas and threats against Israel and the United States.
Khamenei on Wednesday described the attack on Israel as “defining and unprecedented.” He stated that with the passage of time, “the irreparability of this operation becomes more evident." He praised the “perseverance of the people of Gaza” and said that this will eventually “defeat the enemy.”
He claimed that leaders of “usurper and oppressor” governments are visiting Israel to save it from complete annihilation. "The evildoers around the world see that the Zionist regime is in a state of struggle and destruction due to the powerful and defining blow delivered by Palestinian fighters. For this reason, they are trying to forcibly keep the wounded and wreaked regime afloat through these visits, expressions of solidarity, and the provision of tools of crime such as bombs and other weaponry."
The 83-year-old Iranian dictator accused the United States of being a “partner in crime” with Israel. "The hands of the Americans are tainted with the blood of children, women, and other martyrs of Gaza, and in reality, the Americans are managing these crimes."
The Biden administration has warned Iran and Hezbollah not to get involved in the fighting and not to expand the war, although the militant Lebanese organization has already attacked some targets in Israel. The administration has deployed two powerful naval task forces in the eastern Mediterranean, which could be a deterrence against a potential barrage of missiles by Hezbollah.
Khamenei also called on Arab and Muslim governments to not lose their will in the face of “Western propaganda” and refrain from calling Palestinians terrorists.
Israel on Wednesday accused Iran of orchestrating recent attacks carried out by its proxies in Yemen, Iraq, and Lebanon in addition to supporting Hamas' war on Israel.
Israeli Chief Military Spokesperson Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari said: “Iran supported Hamas before the war directly, in training, in providing weapons, money and technological know-how. Even in these moments, Iranian support to Hamas continues with intelligence assistance alongside incitement on social media and fueling incitement worldwide against the State of Israel," he said.
Clearly naming Iran as the culprit of regional destabilization, he added; "In the Middle East where the Iranian proxies operate from within Iraq, Yemen and Lebanon, the instructions come from only one place — from Iran."
On Monday, state media reported that the head of the country’s Chamber of Commerce has been sacked after over four months of contentious relations with the hardliners in President Ebrahim Raisi’s administration, who rejoiced the development on social media. On Tuesday, the report was dismissed by the incumbent chairman himself, Hossein Salahvarzi, whose election in June was a manifestation of the growing divide between the hardliners and the businesspeople.
A large chunk of Iran's economy is controlled by the government and quasi-state foundations, where hardliners have a strong presence as managers with conflicting private interests.
The chamber is often referred to as the “private sector’s parliament” with over 400 members. The chairman's role is coordinating between the private sector and government and is sometimes required to participate in meetings with government officials. However, due to Salahvarzi’s critical views about the government's policies and performance, he was shunned by the administration and was never invited to any of meetings during the past four months, practically sidelining the private sector. The government also froze all its dealings with the chamber to force Salahvarzi out, and even published several fake news about his resignation during the past several months.
Although he won the election fair and square, obtaining 265 votes against 95 votes for Younes Zhaeleh, -- known to have close ties with the government -- the hardliners claim he was disqualified from running in the election by Iran’s Intelligence Ministry. However, the country’s judiciary approved the results of the election, and the parliament did not contest the results, and even the president himself only called for clarification on the issue.
Members of the chamber who are usually private businessmen have often criticized regime policies that have led to an economic crisis, including a confrontational foreign policy. The chambers often produce economic reports that the government finds embarrassing, or they criticize proposed budget bills and other plans.
The real development that occurred Monday was a session of a regulatory board of the chamber, which ended without any agreement, according to Salahvarzi’s post on X social media platform (formerly twitter).
Ali Shariati, a member of the chamber, described the media stunt about removal of Salahvarzi as “a coup against Minister of Industry, Mine, and Trade Abbas Aliabadi,” who holds the position since June. He claimed that the move was orchestrated by members of Iran’s ultra-hardliner Paydari (Steadfastness) Party, as a psychological operation to put pressure on Aliabadi, who does not belong to the group, but oversees the chamber. The party has its tentacles in all government institutions including the parliament where their members form a very influential minority that often takes a leading role amid the weak presence of established conservative and reformist parties. Shariati says the private sector will not allow the hardliners to engineer the elections and suppress the rule of law.
Hossein Marouf, another member of the chamber, told FarazDaily that chambers of commerce are advocacy organizations, explaining that the head of chambers should be part of the top-level government decision making and represent the private sector's demands. “When the government boycotts the chamber’s chairman and doesn't allow him to participate in meetings, there is no chance to effectively pursue demands.”
In the meantime, there is more bad economic news for the government. New reports indicate that the regime is not gaining revenues from its oil exports as much as it advertises, and its budget deficit will be twice as worse as that of the current year. The regime has reasons to muddy the data on its sanctions-hit income, but the parallel systems it has created during the years to circumvent international checks and balances have come back to bite its struggling economy.
Economist Mohammad Gholi Yousefi says Iran needs comprehensive economic reform to eliminate parallel institutions, allowing the private sector to have room for growth. He rejected the common belief that Iran’s economy will flourish if sanctions are removed, saying, “The problem is that we have a big government that intervenes in all affairs, disrupts the economic system, restricts the private sector, and even interferes in people's private lives. To achieve this significant change, amending the constitution is essential.”
Referring to another common belief that Iran’s accession to the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) will lift up the economy, he said, “So long as the constitution remains unamended and individual, social, and economic freedom are not seriously exercised, the lifting of sanctions and international agreements will not significantly contribute to the recovery of the economy.”