Iran's Inflation Soars To Two-Year High Amid Failed Policies
The inflation rate in the past Iranian month was its highest in two years as the government grappling with large budget deficits continues to print money.
The inflation rate in the past Iranian month was its highest in two years as the government grappling with large budget deficits continues to print money.
According to the latest data released by the Central Bank of Iran (CBI), the inflation rate in the country has surged to its highest level in the past 22 months, hitting 54.8% for the month of Mehr (ended October 22), economic website EcoIran reported, after analyzing data released by the CBI. The central bank rejected the report as false, insisting that the inflation is about 45 percent. It claimed that there were discrepancies in calculations.
EcoIran says the number is based on the Central Bank's tables, which are presented periodically to the judiciary to calculate overdue debts, fines, and dowries. The CBI rejected EcoIran’s figure as “wrong” but did not elaborate on the table presented in its document.
The Statistics Center of Iran (SCI) and the CBI claim that the rate of annual inflation has dropped to 45.5 percent, nearly the same level as a year ago, but some things cannot be denied via changing technical definitions. Food prices have risen much faster than the official inflation rate, in some instances hitting 100-percent in 2022. ILNA news agency reported this week that the decline in people's purchasing power is so steep that some workers are surviving the second half of the month with just eating "one egg a day."
The central bank and the ministry of the economy stopped issuing regular and precise economic data in 2019 as US sanctions imposed the previous year pushed an already struggling economy into a deep recession. In the absence of credible data by the Central Bank of Iran about inflation, Iran's Statistics Center became the primary official entity announcing these figures. Government officials and the central bank usually announce lower inflation figures for consumer goods.
Iran’s former chief banker Abdolnaser Hemmati, an outspoken critic of the current administration’s economic policies, said Wednesday that the government has failed to control inflation or the devaluation of the rial. He said that the measures the Raisi’s administration has taken to control the economy has led to “an economic repression and more rente in the currency market," a French term used in Persian to imply privileges resulting from undue influence.
The currency has lost its value 12-fold since 2018 when the United States withdrew from the JCPOA nuclear accord and imposed sanctions. The rial has also lost about 80 percent of its value compared to mid-2021 and close to 50 percent since December 2021.
The government is desperate to control the currency market hoping that it can artificially keep the Iranian rial high. It created multiple exchange rates for rial against the dollar and other foreign currencies, providing subsidies – or cheaper dollars – for the import of essential items. However, the system is manipulated by regime insiders or businesspeople with government connections.
Hemmati said that during the past seven months (since the start of the Iranian year in March) the CBI has supplied $20 billion via a special currency scheme known as NIMA. Exporters have to bring back hard currencies they earn to Iran and sell it at a cheaper rate to the government, which then makes it available to importers at less than than the market exchange rate. He elaborated that the 30-percent discount on the exchange rate provided in NIMA has amounted to an equivalent of $4.4 billion, claiming that about 50 to 100 percent of this amount is pocketed by intermediaries or importers with close links to the regime.
Mohammad Aram, the Deputy for Foreign Exchange at the Central Bank, announced earlier in the week that a total of $42 billion has been provided since March, a three-percent rise in comparison to the corresponding period last year. According to him, the Ministry of Industry, Mining, and Trade received $26.6 billion, the Agriculture Ministry received $10.4 billion, and the Health Ministry received $2.7 billion for importing their needs.
The US dollar is set at 285,000 to the rial in the special government scheme versus the free market where it is traded at about 510,000. The discrepancy between the two breeds corruption, as well-connected individuals and companies can buy cheap dollars through NIMA and instead of using it to finance imports, sell it on the currency market.
Numerous cases of such corruption have been revealed since 2018. The government also regularly sells dollars through the free market to currency dealers to support the beleaguered rial. Usually, these interventions have a limited and temporary effect.
Donya-e-Eqtesad, Iran’s most popular economic newspaper highlighted the paradox this week that the government is providing more foreign currency for the import of essential goods, but they are growing increasingly scarce in the market.
The claims come as the world’s eyes are on Tehran, which has long funded the group designated a terror organization by the likes of the UK and US. Tehran has also provided military, technical and operational support to Hamas for years.
According to Reuters, three sources have claimed that “Iran's supreme leader delivered a clear message to the head of Hamas when they met in Tehran in early November … You gave us no warning of your Oct. 7 attack on Israel and we will not enter the war on your behalf.”
This message apparently delivered by three regime officials contradicts a string of meetings between the top echelons of the Islamic Republic and leaders of both Hamas and Iran-backed Lebanese Hezbollah, over the course of this year. This went as high up as the Supreme Leader when in April, Hamas announced that its political leader, Ismail Haniyeh, was visiting the Supreme Leader in Tehran.
Reuters claims that on this latest visit earlier this month, “Ayatollah Ali Khamenei told Ismail Haniyeh that Iran -- a longtime backer of Hamas -- would continue to lend the group its political and moral support, but wouldn't intervene directly.”
As soon as war broke out, the US voiced its support of Israel, sending warships and personnel to the region, fearing a wider escalation with Iran at the helm.
Iranian officials have repeatedly made the claim that they were not involved in the terror attack, but the government immediately on October 7 praised the invasion and ordered street celebration, with large banners erected within hours.
Yet regime and Hamas sources speaking to Reuters claim “The supreme leader pressed Haniyeh to silence those voices in the Palestinian group publicly calling for Iran and its powerful Lebanese ally Hezbollah to join the battle against Israel in full force”.
While Hamas and Hezbollah leaders had met with increasing frequency in the lead up to the attack which was to be the most deadly single day for Jews since the Holocaust, with the murder of 1,200 mostly civilians and a further 240 taken hostage, regime insiders dispute Hezbollah also had knowledge of the devastating attack which was to take place.
“Hezbollah too, was taken by surprise by Hamas' devastating assault last month that killed 1,200 Israelis; its fighters were not even on alert in villages near the border that were frontlines in its 2006 war with Israel, and had to be rapidly called up,” Reuters reported.
One Hezbollah commander told the news agency, ”We woke up to a war”, in spite of multiple meetings in recent months.
The latest statements distancing himself from the war, which has seen Iranian proxies in Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen launch attacks on Israel, will shock the Supreme Leader’s domestic audience who have for years heard his cries of annihilating the Jewish state and his ‘final solution’.
On Israel’s northern border, Hezbollah has engaged in the heaviest clashes with Israel for almost 20 years, but has avoided a full-fledged war. Speaking to Israel Today, Middle East expert Professor Meir Litvak reiterated the final command of its proxies will always come from Khamenei.
“Khamenei detests Israel with all his heart and wishes for its destruction. He also did not hide his great joy at what happened to us. However, he is cautious. He does not want direct Iranian involvement, and it is very important to him that there be no Israeli hit inside Iran. That is why he is determined and sophisticated in using his proxies, Hezbollah for example, who will do the job,” he said.
“Khamenei had an opportunity on October 7, but he also has a historical vision, so he is not in a hurry to destroy Israel right now. His ideological view is that Israel's blood must be shed, brought to its collapse so that it will submit to Iran's demands and no longer exist as a Jewish state.”
In what appears to be the most coordinated attack since the regime was founded in 1979, it seems unlikely that Tehran has not been at least highly informed of operations at the highest levels. Jason Brodsky, policy director at United Against A Nuclear Iran, noted the Reuters report’s sourcing. “It's Iran's regime and Axis of Resistance, so what they're telling Reuters is meant to protect Tehran. A lack of Iranian foreknowledge of October 7 is hard to believe,” he said.
"But Tehran not intervening directly, only through proxies, as well as Khamenei's frustration of Hamas operatives complaining about Iran's regime's support and requests to silence them are more believable,” he added.
Iran-backed proxies have even attacked US forces in Iraq and Syria, triggering fears of a full scale war. But as the US now enters discussions with Iran to unfreeze yet more funds, the likelihood is that Tehran knows it is the time to step back.
Last month, Iran’s foreign minister said that US officials had tried to discuss restarting nuclear talks but insisted Washington must first release $10 billion of Tehran's frozen funds as a sign of good will.
Indirect talks to revive the 2015 nuclear accord broke down in June and Iran has since rejected direct talks with the United States.
However, while Iran has billions of dollars of its frozen assets in foreign banks, mainly from exports of oil and gas, which it cannot access due to US sanctions on its banking and energy sectors, the war in Gaza and annihilation of Israel, may be lower down the list.
Earlier this year, the US unblocked $6bn from south Korea in exchange for the release of five dual-nationals held in Iran, a move which drew international condemnation fueling fears of its emboldening the regime and reinforcing its diplomatic hostage policy.
As Iran’s economy is on its knees and the world watches the number one sponsor of state terror, according to the US, and its next moves, it is perhaps playing a long game.
In the past week alone, there have been reports of the arrests of two female former political prisoners in Tehran, two female environmental activists and journalists as well as two female writers, and a female animals rights activist in Rasht, two male citizens in Izeh who participated in the anniversary ceremonies for two of last year’s protest victims – nine-year-old Kian Pir-Falak and sixteen-year-old Milad Saeedianjou – as well as the latter’s sister in the same city and several others elsewhere.
Security forces who raided the home of female journalist and former political prisoner Shaghayegh Moradi in Tehran on Monday morning seized some of her personal belongings and took her with them to her mother’s house to search the premises. It is not clear which security body is responsible for the arrest and where she is being kept.
Mahnaz Tarrah, former political prisoner, however, was violently arrested on the street and taken to a court stationed at Evin Prison.
Farzin Rezaei-Roshan, also a former political prisoner, who was with Tarrah at the time of her arrest said in a video he released on social media that he was violently assaulted by the over a dozen agents who arrested his friend.
Rezaei-Roshan who is seen in the video in bloodied clothes says the agents used tasers and broke his head before taking his friend away.
In Rasht, capital of the northern province of Gilan, writer Rozita Rajaei was arrested Saturday and journalists Nasim Tavafzadeh and Helaleh Nategheh were arrested two days later. Both journalists had carried out research and written extensively about waste management, a big environmental problem in the region.
Like most other cases, there is very little information on these arrests in Rasht, but writer Nina Golestani’s husband said in an Instagram post that his wife was arrested by the Revolutionary Guards’ intelligence organization on her way home from shopping.
Due to censorship regulations, the mainstream media in Iran do not report on the majority of dissidents’ and activists’ arrests, which often involve unnecessary violence and maltreatment as well as confiscation of computers and mobile phones of not only the person being arrested, but of all other members of the family.
Information including reason for arrest and place of detention is often withheld even from the families of detainees by the authorities.
Social media users, however, actively inform the public of the arrests the regime strives to hide from the public and its human rights violations.
Pressure has also been high on Sunnis and followers of the Baha’i and Yarsan (Ahl-i Haqq) faiths that the regime does not recognize and considers as heretical unlike Christianity, Judaism and Zoroastrianism which have legal status in the Constitution.
The homes of the followers of the Baha’i faith, the largest non-Muslim religious minority in Iran, who have been persecuted since the Islamic Revolution of 1979 were raided in these cities by armed security agents last week with at least 19 people arrested and their personal belongings including electronic devices impounded.
The recent arrests have raised the number of Bahai’s arrested in the past month to at least 32 all of whom are still in prison.
The four members of the mystical Yarsan faith’s advisory council arrested in Kermanshah Province on Friday were reportedly freed after a few hours of interrogation but there is very little information on a Sunni cleric Abdulhakim Shahbakhsh who was arrested by security forces in Zahedan on November 8.