Iran's Raisi Skips Trip To Switzerland Amid Legal Bid For His Arrest
A legal complaint filed on Monday asked Swiss authorities to arrest Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi if he travels to Geneva to attend a UN event.
A legal complaint filed on Monday asked Swiss authorities to arrest Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi if he travels to Geneva to attend a UN event.
The complaint has been lodged by three former political prisoners who seem to have narrowly escaped the Islamic Republic’s “prison massacres” of 1988.
Ebrahim Raisi was a member of the infamous Death Committee in Iran, which oversaw summary execution of between two to five thousand political prisoners in 1988.
The three survivors have accused Raisi of crimes against humanity, including genocide, torture, and extrajudicial executions. They have asked the Swiss federal public prosecutor to arrest and prosecute him.
Raisi was scheduled to participate in the United Nations Global Refugee Forum in Geneva, but UN officials told AFP on Monday evening that the Iranian delegation would be led by foreign minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian.
It is unclear whether the change of plans –if confirmed– has been forced by the legal bid to arrest Raisi.
The legal complaint contends that Raisi played a pivotal role in the Death Committee. His role has been all but established by scores of testimonies, and by an audio recording of the meeting in which members of the Committee seek blessings of Hossein Ali Montazeri, the Supreme Leader’s deputy at the time.
In 2018, Amnesty International published a 180-page report on the “1988 prison massacres”, documenting summary execution of political prisoners in Tehran and 15 more cities across Iran. Ebrahim Raisi is one of the very few people to have been accused of crimes against humanity in that report.
In tandem with the legal action, an international campaign has been launched against Raisi’s involvement in the UN refugee forum. The signatories –including Nobel laureates, judges, academics, and UN rights experts– call for Raisi’s prosecution for past and ongoing crimes under international law.
"We firmly believe that the United Nations, as a bastion of human rights and justice, should not compromise its reputation by extending an invitation to an individual accused of grave human rights violations," reads the petition. "His presence at the UN forum contradicts the fundamental values the UN stands for."
The campaigners have asked the UN to "promptly rescind its invitation to Raisi," arguing that the institution’s reputation would be marred by extending an invitation to an individual accused of severe human rights violations.
“His regime beats, blinds and poisons Iranian women and girls,” wrote Hillel Neuer, an international human rights lawyer and the executive director of UN Watch. “Any democratic leader that meets with this terrorist will be rewarding evil.”
Responding to the petition, the UN refugee agency (UNHCR), defended Iran's participation, stating that the country is a UN member state with a significant number of refugees.
"The Iranian delegation will be led by the foreign minister," a spokesperson for UNHCR said in an email, according to AFP.
The UN Global Refugee Forum will be held in Geneva 13-15 December. It is held every four years with the aim of “easing pressures on host countries, enhancing refugee self-reliance, increasing access to third-country solutions and improving conditions in countries of origin.”
The 2023 forum is hosted by Switzerland and UNHCR, and co-convened by Colombia, France, Japan, Jordan and Uganda.
Natural gas that has been cooled to a liquid form for convenient and secure non-pressurized storage or transportation is known as liquefied natural gas, or LNG. The gas is cooled to around -260°F throughout the process, which lowers its volume by roughly 600 times and makes it more useful for long-distance transmission in situations where pipelines are not an option.
According to the IEA's most recent study, rising economies are forecast to increase demand for LNG overall, and a 25% increase in global LNG capacity between 2022 and 2026—led by the US— which is expected to ease market tightness.
With an export volume of 114.1 billion cubic meters, Qatar was the largest LNG exporter in the world in 2022. The average monthly record for US net natural gas exports as LNG and via pipeline was 13.6 Bcf/d in May 2023. With an average of 11.6 Bcf/d in the first half of 2023, the United States was the world's leading exporter of natural gas.
Iran was estimated to have produced 262.261 billion cubic meters (bcm) of natural gas in 2022, a 2% increase from the year before. During that time, the nation consumed 230 bcm of gas. Iran has exchange agreements with Turkmenistan and supplies natural gas to Turkey and Iraq.
Iran has been progressing with the Iran LNG project, located at Tombak Port, around 50 km north of Assaluyeh. Managed by the Iran LNG company, a subsidiary of the Iranian Gas Exporting Company (IGEC), the project involves two LNG trains, each capable of producing 5.4 million tons of LNG annually. One of the three planned LNG export projects, the 10.8 million t/yr Iran LNG project, was halted due to international restrictions linked to Tehran's nuclear program.
In late November, the CEO of Iran Natural Gas Liquefaction Company, Hadi Amirshaghaghi, gave an update on the Iran-LNG project. Started in the early 2000s, the project encountered obstacles and progressed just 38% by 2013. Resurrected since 2021, it is currently 53% completed, with major parts ready for operations.
It is claimed that the ongoing LNG project lost $5 billion a year, which is why the present administration has made its recovery a top priority. US sanctions, finance problems, and acquiring technology are among the obstacles. Iran also needs to address its limited export potential and high domestic gas consumption. By mid-2025, the Raisi administration hopes to have the project finished.
The severe natural gas shortage in Iran, particularly problematic during winter, has led to disruptions in gas supply for residential usage, forcing the use of inferior fuel oil like mazut, contributing to air pollution. Amirshaghaghi, has suggested a technological capability to reverse part of the LNG manufacturing process, turning it back into sweet natural gas. With 99% progress in storage tanks and over 50% progress in maritime facilities, addressing the gas network shortfall may involve announcing and attracting investors, providing a significant gas injection into the national network.
Presently, Iran's natural gas consumption grows by 5% annually, but growth rate in output is flat or even decreasing. It expects South Pars field in the Persian Gulf to become less productive and pressured over the next three to four years, turning the country from an energy producer to an importer. The amount of gas imbalance is expected to increase from 250 million cubic meters per day to 300 million cubic meters per day this year and 500 to 550 million cubic meters per day by the end of 2031.
A $40 billion Memorandum of Understanding between the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) and Gazprom was signed by Iran and Russia in July 2022. The MOU sought to cooperate on several energy-related initiatives, such as the completion of LNG projects in Iran and the development of gas and oil fields. It is noteworthy, therefore, that the MOU never came to pass, and that Russia did not provide Iran with the anticipated financial assistance or technology needed to finish the Iran LNG project.
Sanctions pose serious challenges for Iran, preventing it from obtaining essential liquefaction technology and endangering its financial stability. Iran may have the gas to liquefy, but there are still limitations to the feasibility of LNG exports. The nation has significant obstacles in acquiring liquefaction technology, and its past endeavors in pursuing these kinds of projects seem destined for protracted periods of financial waste. Although obtaining a supply of gas for liquefaction and export is difficult, accepting the less complicated and non-competitive regasification method appears to be a viable remedy.
Additionally, regasification—which is the process of returning LNG to its original gaseous state—represents a comparatively simple process that operates in a less competitive market than liquefaction. This anticipated change denotes a move away from Iran's initial objective of becoming a significant LNG exporter and toward a likely role as an LNG importer. This change is significant because it shows how Iran has changed from being an exporter to an importer in the world energy market. Given the lack of natural gas, importing LNG from Qatar would be the only practical alternative if the Raisi administration is successful in completing the Iran LNG project. This is because of the short distance involved.
It is also critical to highlight the many difficulties that come with LNG regasification, such as the need to build necessary infrastructure and navigate through sophisticated technological issues. These elements add to the complexity of this energy transition, emphasizing the necessity of meticulous preparation and strategic thought.
The Central Bank of Iran issued a statement Monday rejecting reports that the bank bought foreign currency at a higher rate and sold it to a cabal of insider businesspeople. The government’s foreign currency policy has been one of the chronic problems in Iran’s economy. The central bank allocates discounted foreign currencies supposedly for essential goods, but they end up at the hands of regime insiders who mainly sell them in the black market for profit.
The parliament's research center released an analytical report on the recently submitted budget bill of President Ebrahim Raisi’s administration, inadvertently revealing that in the first seven months of the Iranian year (started March 21), the government has spent $4.5 billion more than the foreign currencies obtained from oil revenues, but giving out cheap dollars for the import of five essential goods.
The current exchange rate for the US dollar against Iran’s national currency rial is about 500,000 rials. According to the report, the government has taken $4.5 billion with the rate of Iran’s National Currency and Gold Exchange Center – at about 400,000 rials per dollar -- and given to its cherrypicked businessmen at the rate of 285,000 rials per dollar.
According to calculations by Iran’s leading economic daily Donya-e Eqtesad, the difference between these two rates amounts to about 600 trillion rials (about $1.2 billion at current rate at free market) that has been added to the country’s monetary base, further feeding soaring inflation. Essentially the government printed money to buy the dollars at a higher rate and sell it cheaper to importers. The daily predicted that the current trend will lead to an annual rise of about one quadrillion rials ($2 billion), whose inflation will affect the entire society.
“It seems that the insistence of policymakers on promoting welfare policies through currency policies is still in force, with no significant changes in sight. This is happening while currency fluctuations and corruption in the currency allocation process are among the most recognized consequences of welfare-driven currency policies,” Donya-e Eqtesad said. “These policies not only fail to achieve welfare goals but as seen in the tea industry's foreign currency corruption case, they lead to a multitude of damages to society.”
In fact, 'welfare' is just a buzz word, justifying the provision of cheap dollars to people with influence in the political system. Prices for essential goods such as foodstuff continue to rise despite the discounted dollars provided to importers. The justification for cheaper dollars is to keep prices low and prevent higher inflation, but that has not worked as food price inflation stands at around 70 percent.
Iranians are still in shock about recent revelations about a huge corruption case involving nearly $3.5 billion and key Islamic Republic figures. Whenever such cases are revealed, the authorities usually cope out of responsibility by blaming former administrations or officials from the opposing political camp. However, the $3.5 billion embezzlement case of Debsh Tea Company involves officials from both the current and the previous presidential administrations -- including ministers of agriculture, industry as well as the governors of the Central Bank of Iran and the chiefs of Iranian Customs Administration. It has also led to discord between the judiciary and the presidential administration as well as the parliament.