IRGC Reduces Presence In Syria After Israeli Strikes - Reuters

Speaking on Wednesday, Mohammad Movahedi Azad stated, "Holding elections and the people’s turnout ensures the country’s immunity against enemy aggression."

The claims were unfounded, and come amidst Iran's proxy war being waged across the region.

As Iran gears up for parliamentary and Assembly of Experts elections scheduled for March 1, the country stands at a pivotal juncture, particularly with the assembly responsible for appointing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's successor.

The upcoming elections hold weight not only in terms of leadership transitions but also in affirming the regime's legitimacy. However, concerns loom over anticipated low voter turnout, with recent polls suggesting a potential decline compared to previous records, sounding alarms among authorities, including Khamenei, who have historically linked high turnout to regime credibility.

Nevertheless, a growing sense of disillusionment pervades various segments of Iranian society, fueled by perceived failures in addressing socio-political grievances, widespread corruption, and restrictions on freedoms with brutal oppression.

Many Iranians, skeptical of the regime's promises, have chosen to abstain from electoral participation, viewing it as futile in bringing about meaningful change.

Despite Khamenei's recent calls for mobilization, the widespread exclusion of moderate and reformist candidates underscores a widening gap between the regime and certain segments of the populace. Consequently, he resorted to ordering officials and institutions to push the people to the polls in any way they could.

Suggesting this is the opportune moment for dialogue, Ashena wrote on X, "If one believes negotiations must occur from a position of strength, then is now the time?"

It comes in the wake of an Iran-backed proxy attack on US troops in Jordan, which left three US personnel died on Sunday, leaving questions for the Biden administration as to what comes next in the face of an emboldened Iran.

Tensions between Iran and the US have reached a new level since the Gaza war, when over 160 Iran-backed proxy attacks have targeted US facilities and personnel in Iraq and Syria, as well as the Red Sea shipping routes. They claim to be acting in allegiance with Iran-backed Hamas in Gaza.

On October 7, the militant group launched a surprise invasion of Israel, sparking the worst war between Israel and the Gaza-based group since they took over the strip in 2007. Iran's proxies claim to be pressuring for a ceasefire, and targeting the US for its support of Israel's retaliatory attacks which Hamas claims has killed over 20,000 Gazans.

Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has consistently rejected the prospect of direct talks with the United States. Throughout the 11-month period of nuclear negotiations held in Vienna from April 2021 to March 2022, the United States remained involved but primarily on the sidelines and Tehran refused to hold talks directly.

The first operation destroyed a Houthi surface-to-air missile as it was preparing to launch. In the second operation, a missile and three Iran-made drones were shot down as they approached the USS Carney. A few hours later, another operation targeted a Houthi control station along with 10 'suicide drones' on the ground.

The US Central Command issued three statements in less than ten hours, stating that all the operations were carried out in self-defense because the drones posed an imminent threat to merchant vessels and US Navy ships in the region.

Earlier, a spokesman for the Houthis had claimed an attack on the US merchant ship “KOI” in the Gulf of Aden. CENTCOM confirmed this report, adding that USS Carney had shot down three Iranian drones and one anti-ship ballistic missile launched from Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen.

The uptick in hostilities at the Red Sea comes at a time when the the Biden administration is weighing its options for attacking Iran, in response to last weekend’s drone attack on a US base in Jordan, which killed three American soldiers and wounded dozens.

An Iranian proxy militant group in Iraq, Kataib Hezbollah, responsible for the attack on US troops in Jordan, announced a halt to further operations against US targets, but the Houthi forces have vowed to continue attacks on US and British warships, as well as commercial vessels.

President Biden announced on Tuesday that he has made a decision regarding the response, but no strikes have been launched, and no official details have been shared.

Wednesday evening, NBC News reported that the retaliation against Iran-backed militants could last for “weeks.” Quoting US officials, the news channel claimed that the targets may include Iranian interests outside Iran.

The Biden administration is under growing pressure to retaliate. But ‘retaliation without escalation’ (Biden’s preferred option) seems hard to accomplish. Soon, it will be a week since the killing of American soldiers. At the Capitol, patience is running out.

“[Iran] should be hit, and it should be hit hard,” Democratic Senator John Fetterman told Iran International’s Arash Alaei Wednesday. “Any nation that’s underwriting terrorism across that region has to be punished. But that doesn’t mean it has to be attacked directly.”

Iranian officials say their allied armed groups are independent and often leave Tehran in the dark. But many in Washington blame Iran for most –if not all– attacks against the US and its allies. However, Houthis attacks on commercial vessels began in mid-November after Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei urged Muslim nations to blockade Israeli ports.

Iran and its proxies have launched more than 160 strikes against US forces in Syria and Iraq since October. And Houthis in Yemen have managed to disrupt shipping in the Red Sea with their regular attacks on commercial vessels and even US warships.

The Houthis say their attacks are in response to the Israeli onslaught in Gaza and should thus concern only the ships with some connection to Israel. In reality, however, several ships with no discernible ties to Israel have been targeted.

It’s unclear if President Biden’s avowed retaliatory ‘campaign’ –if and when it happens– would replace the existing operation against the Houthis. Either way, judging by their relentless attacks on commercial vessels in spite of US (and UK) airstrikes in the past few weeks, the Houthis seem to not really care.

When selecting his constituency last year, he could have announced his candidacy from Tehran, where he works and resides, or from Qom, the home of the Shiite seminary where he claims to be a 'ostad,' loosely translated as a professor. However, he was aware that candidates from Tehran require between 200,000 to half a million votes to secure a seat in the Assembly of Experts, while in small rural district, a mere 200 votes would suffice.

With the Guardian Council disqualifying all four clerics who competed against Raisi, it has essentially become a one-man show, and according to Iranian election laws, he could even cast that one ballot himself.

An aide of former President Hassan Rouhani, who was also running for reelection but was disqualified, playfully teased Raisi by suggesting he bring his wife, an Iranian university professor with fake credentials, for the vote. After all, two votes are better than one.

Compared to the parliamentary elections which is to be held on the same date, and is a bad blend of election rigging, biased vetting and shambolic campaigning, the Assembly of Experts election is practically a farce. In some places, like in the case of Raisi, there is just one candidate for a seat.

In Iran’s odd electoral system, the interior ministry and the Guardian Council have the power to bar any candidate from running in elections, without recourse to courts or any other type of accountability. Many long-time regime insiders and even former top officials have been barred from the March 1 contest, to allow hardliners to gain most of the seats in the parliament and the Assembly of Experts. The latter is the body that will select Iran’s next Supreme leader in the event of Ali Khamenei’s passing.

The situation is so embarrassing that 12 grand ayatollah, clerics of the highest ranks, decided not to run at all and leave the competition to "young" clerics, who typically over 60 years of age and very little academic or seminary credential, much like Raisi.

Akbar Montajabi, the editor of Sazandegi daily, argued that Raisi should have announced his candidacy from Tehran to gauge how the capital's residents feel about his performance in this limited election. He added that it is beneath the rank and prestige of Iran's president to nominate himself from a small town where he faced minimal competition.

Rouhani registered his doomed candidacy from Tehran as he was sure based on the 24 million votes he won in the 2017 presidential election that he was going to win one of the seats for Tehran. Despite the 24 million votes, Kayhan newspaper's ultraconservative editor, Hossein Shariatmadari, even complained that Rouhani had won too many votes.

Reformist analyst Ahmad Zeidabadi wrote that it seems the ultraconservative Paydari Party is determined to control all of the government institutions after the March 1 election.

Mostafa Faghihi, the editor of Entekhab news website, humorously observed that the situation is so comical that even if everyone in South Khorasan decides not to vote, Raisi will still win the election with his single vote for himself.

The situation in other Iranian cities and provinces mirrors the absurdity of the remote northeastern province. In Shiraz, where five people should be elected to the Assembly of Experts, there are only four candidates whose qualifications have been endorsed by the Guardian Council. In Gilan and Mazandaran provinces, four candidates have been qualified to run for the three available seats. In total, only 138 candidates have had their credentials endorsed for the Assembly of Experts' 88 seats.

A cartoon on social media likened the state of competition in the Assembly of Experts election to a game played in the children's program of the state TV in which four children turn around three seats and the teachers order, they will have to compete for the available seats. 

Pahlavi highlighted Tehran’s destabilizing activities through its regional proxies such as Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis and crackdown on dissent within Iran, calling on the world to support the revolutionary uprising of the Iranian people to end the regime. 

“There is only one solution: help the people of Iran in their fight for liberation from the Islamic regime, and put an end to war and conflict,” he said after an Iran-backed militia attacked US troops on Sunday in Jordan, leaving three dead.

During a speech at the Simon Wiesenthal Center’s Museum of Tolerance in Los Angeles on Tuesday, he pointed out that nothing can push Iran into reform, the regime only more emboldened in the face of global sanctions. It has continued its nuclear program at an accelerated speed, supported Russia's invasion of Ukraine and continued to crack down on dissent at home with over 800 executions last year alone.

Pahlavi also called for the formation of a coalition working towards the overthrow of the Islamic Republic, not only for the sake of Iran, but the world. The UK alone has foiled tens of attacks since 2022, with dozens more around the world. In September, Israel's spy chief said it had also foiled 27 attacks on Israelis and Jews abroad in the past year. 

The exiled prince stated that Iranians do not ask the US to send soldiers into Iran, instead, they want the US to support their aspirations for freedom and their fight against the regime. Pahlavi called for global efforts to facilitate Iranians' access to free internet and financial support for striking workers, utilizing the Islamic Republic’s funds currently blocked in the US. 

He also renewed his criticism of the prisoner exchange deal between Tehran and Washington, in which Washington released five Iranians in addition to $6 billion of the country's frozen assets in South Korea in exchange for five Iranian-Americans who were held hostage in Iran. "The United States should give Iran's assets to the protesters instead of the Islamic Republic," he said. 

Pahlavi’s message to the world echoes the demands of several opposition figures and international activists, especially since the Middle East conflict began on October 7, when Tehran-backed Islamist group Hamas invaded Israel, killed 1,400 mostly civilians and took hundreds of hostages.

In the wake of the attack, several other Iran-funded groups have intensified attacks on US and Israeli targets in Iraq and Syria while the Houthis of Yemen have been attacking international shipping in the Red Sea. Iranian officials claim that the country has had no active role in the conflict, but the proxies are the brainchild of Iran's Supreme Leader who himself called for the Red Sea blockade. During 2023, he met with leaders of Hamas and Hezbollah, suggesting top level coordination of the attacks which have triggered the worst violence in the region in years. 

Echoing the exiled prince's calls, on the occasion of Holocaust Remembrance Day, women’s rights activist Masih Alinejad called on the Western world “to take a tough stance against the regime in Iran which is determined to eliminate Israel and kill its own people too.”