Mixed Reactions Among Iranian Regime Insiders Over Israeli Attack
While certain Iranian regime figures advocate for a military retaliation to the Israeli strike on Iran’s consulate in Damascus, others propose a measured response to avoid escalation.
While certain Iranian regime figures advocate for a military retaliation to the Israeli strike on Iran’s consulate in Damascus, others propose a measured response to avoid escalation.
Former Iranian security chief Ali Shamkhani tweeted that Israel has acted as the United States' proxy army in the region, labeling the strike as foolishness for which Israel should face severe consequences. He vowed that Iran would retaliate regardless of whether the United States was aware of the strike beforehand.
IRGC General Esmail Kowsari, a member of the Iranian parliament, has stated that Israel's attack on Iran's consulate in Damascus constitutes an invasion of Iranian territory, warranting a serious response from Iran. He dismissed the notion of "strategic patience" in the face of such aggression, emphasizing that Iran will not hesitate to retaliate against Israel.
Kowsari also underscored that the United States should anticipate Iran's response, cautioning Israel against further attacks on Iran's interests. He reiterated Iran's stance regarding its military presence in Syria, emphasizing that Iranian personnel are there at the request of the Syrian government. When asked about the nature of Iran's retaliatory measures, Kowsari stated that such decisions lie with Iran's policymakers and military commanders. However, he declined to confirm whether Iran plans to target Israel's diplomatic missions in other countries.
However, international lawyer Reza Nasri clarified in an interview in Tehran that while the attack on the consulate was illegitimate and violated international law and regulations, it is inaccurate to consider embassies and consulates abroad as extensions of the country's sovereign territory.
Two IRGC generals and five other IRGC officers were killed in the attack on Monday. Subsequently, reports from Iran say that regime supporters in at least in the two cities of Tehran and Sari, have called for serious military strikes on Israel in retaliation for the attack.
In another development, former lawmaker Ali Motahari asked why in a volatile situation in Syria so many high-ranking military officers were taking part in a high-profile meeting. Alireza Pakfetrat, a lawmaker from Shiraz, also reiterated that it is not clear why such a meeting was held while Israel clearly has access to intelligence about the gatherings of Iranian officers in Syria. He suggested that such meetings should be held in a country other than Syria.
Another Iranian lawmaker, Mansour Haqiqatpoor, echoed the sentiment, stating, "Iran is prepared to deliver a robust response to the Zionists." However, he emphasized that such a response would be measured. He emphasized, "Our retaliation will be decisive and inflict significant losses on Israel."
Nonetheless, like many Iranian analysts and social media activists, he warned that the strike on the Iranian consulate could be part of a plot to drag Iran into a wider war in the region, involving Israel.
Meanwhile, in an interview with Entekhab news website, former diplomat and current political analyst Ghasem Mohebali stated that Israel has opted to escalate the conflict. However, Mohebali urged Iran to carefully consider whether broadening the conflict would serve Iran's interests or play into Israel's hands. He cautioned that overlooking details could entangle Iran in a game orchestrated by Israel.
While many observers, including commentators on the Iranian state TV, have questioned the Islamic Republic's inaction in the face of repeated Israeli strikes on Iran's positions inside and outside the country. Mohammad Taghi Aghayan, an Iranian analyst said on live Iranian TV: "Everyone talks about hard responses to Israel, but no one says where and when." And in response to those who call for calculated measures and strategic patience, he said: "What exactly should Israel do to prompt us to take hard revenge?"
"Hard revenge" is a term coined by Khamenei and the IRGC after US forces killed IRGC Qods Force Commander Qasem Soleimani in 2020. Talking excessively about "hard revenge," "levelling Tel Aviv and Haifa," and "punishing Israel" without taking action is deeply embarrassing for Khamenei. Even many of his staunch supporters are questioning on social media what he and the IRGC are doing and how they are utilizing their power beyond suppressing women and students in the streets.
Khamenei is faced with two options: retaliating and falling into Netanyahu's trap, or refraining from action and facing further embarrassment.
The Iranian authorities’ actions come as the Islamic month of Ramadan and the death anniversary of the first Imam coincided with the Persian New Year celebration of Sizdah Be-dar.
After contradictory statements from the government ahead of the holiday, authorities blocked access to parks and roads to recreational spots around rivers and lakes and forests, using concrete blocks and heaps of earth – common picnic locations where Iranians usually gather on this day.
In some places police also actively interfered with those who had ventured out to picnic despite the warnings and even clashed with them. A video posted on social media shows the police using tear gas to disperse the picnickers in Masouleh. Infuriated Iranians in the touristic town in northern Iran eventually drove them out by booing and shouting “scoundrels” at them.
Police are booed after firing tear gas at picnickers in Masouleh.
Although the Sizdah Be-dar picnic is traditionally celebrated during daytime, Iranians in some areas waited until the evening to get out, as authorities had announced that parks and public gardens would be open after iftar – the evening time of breaking the fast.
At Tehran’s Gheytarieh Park the police assaulted street musicians who were playing music and took them away while angry people booed them.
Police forcefully remove street musicians from Gheytarieh Park in Tehran.
In many areas the Basij paramilitary and vigilantes patrolled the picnic spots in vehicles, playing loud mourning songs on megaphones to intimidate and threaten the picnickers to leave the area. A video posted on social media shows them threatening picnickers at a beach in Langaroud in northern Iran with one of them shouting “This is the city of Imam Hussain, pick up your stuff and leave” into a megaphone.
Paramilitary Basijis threatening picnickers in Langaroud in northern Iran
The 13th and final day of the Persian New Years holidays is called Sizdah Be-dar and is always celebrated with a picnic. Sizdah Be-dar is often thought to mean “casting off [the inauspiciousness] of thirteen]” but can also mean “spending the thirteenth in the valleys”.
Video sent to Iran International shows a police car blocking the road to a picnic spot.
Since the Islamic Revolution of 1979, the regime has reluctantly tolerated the country’s ancient New Year (Norouz) festival which is celebrated on the day of the Spring Equinox. But the religious establishment has been against the celebration of others such as Charshanbeh Souri bonfire night on the last Tuesday of the old year and Sizdah Be-dar. Authorities, accordingly, have often tried to prevent these festivities, both of which are celebrated outdoors joyfully by Iranians.
Islamists play loud mourning songs on a road in the northern province of Gilan.
To the regime, Chaharshanbeh Suri is viewed as a pagan relic because of its association with fire and Sizdah Be-dar, which was renamed as Nature Day after the Islamic Revolution of 1979, promotes superstition.
Be that as it may, the celebration of Sizdah Be-dar is so popular that it has remained a public holiday in the official calendar as most Iranians, even many religious families, have not forsaken their beloved ancient and pre-Islamic festivals and continue to celebrate them, sometimes even alongside religious occasions.