Debate Continues In Tehran About How To Respond To Israel
Many regional countries would like to see Iran directly involved in a war with Israel, because it will inflict great damage on the country, two commentators told the media in Tehran.
Many regional countries would like to see Iran directly involved in a war with Israel, because it will inflict great damage on the country, two commentators told the media in Tehran.
Government controlled media in Tehran has been abuzz with bellicose statements by some officials and at the same time warnings of remaining cool-headed by many pundits, following Israel’s April 1 air strike that killed seven IRGC officers in the Iranian embassy in Damascus.
The leadership of the Islamic Republic, and particularly Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei face a challenging political dilemma - launch a forceful retaliatory attack and risk a wider war, possibly involving the United States, or exercise restraint and look for less dramatic alternatives. However, Tehran’s proxies around the region, its domestic supporters, and even ordinary Iranians opposed to the government, might see any hesitation as a sign of weakness.
Former chairman of Iranian parliament’s national security and foreign policy committee, Heshmatollah Falahatpisheh, stated on Sunday that, “The interests of all actors in the region today lie in dragging Iran into war. In the current situation, Iran is alone.” He went on to accuse Russia of pursuing the same goal. Falahatpisheh emphasized that war in the Middle East is in the interest of Moscow. While Russia has refused to deliver Sukhoi-35 warplanes to Iran and its air defenses have not confronted Israeli aircraft over Syria, its diplomats engage in provocative rants at the UN Security Council.
The former lawmaker cautioned against any escalation by Iran. “The country should not make a strategic mistake while in isolation. Therefore, while strengthening defensive capabilities, Iran should not fall into the trap and sedition created by [Benjamin] Netanyahu.”
Rahman Ghahremanpour, another well-known commentator, also reiterated that Iran is alone in the region and Israel’s air strike in Damascus was a unique provocation to drag Tehran into a wider war. He also agreed with Falahatpisheh that other countries in the region would like to see Iran entangled in a war that will destroy its military power and weaken it. Although he did not name any country, but the reference could well be directed at Sunni Arab states in the region that have long been tormented by Iran’s expanding influence and armed proxies.
A relatively independent news website, Entekhab, argued that Tehran has four alternatives to choose from in deciding how to respond to Israel.
First, Iran, relying on its missile and drone capabilities, targets military or infrastructure objectives in Israel in retaliatory attacks. While punishing Israel, it will demonstrate its missile power and deterrent capability at the regional and international levels.
Second, in a tit-for-tat fashion Iran targets an Israeli diplomatic mission in one of the regional countries, thus demonstrating a proportional response.
Third, Iran, relying on the operational capabilities and drone power of its regional proxy groups, carries out targeted and impactful attacks on Israeli military bases and critical centers, in indirect retaliation.
Fourth, to avoid regional escalation, Iran refrains from any immediate response, instead adopting strategic patience, and engaging in a war of psychological attrition against Israel, while preserving its military power.
Entekhab concluded that considering many statements by officials and influential figures in the Iranian regime, it is safe to assume that Tehran has adopted that latter option.
“The 140% increase in the migration of young professionals in the past year … can be seen as an exit strategy resulting from loss of hope in [voluntary] change and reform in the government,” Fatemeh Mousavi, sociologist and social researcher, told Khabar Online news website in an interview Tuesday.
It appears that for many Iranians from diverse backgrounds, hope in the prospects of positive change in the country have been lost – especially for the younger generation seeing emigration as the only path toward a more promising life.
A recent telephone poll conducted by US-based Statis Consulting reveals that nearly half of Iranian youth aspire to leave the country, driven by a prevailing sense of pessimism regarding their future in their homeland.
Saeid Moidfar, chairman of the Iranian Sociological Association, recently warned that Iran is on the brink of a significant wave of emigration. Iranians perceive a bleak future in the country, with worsening economic and social conditions, alongside escalating corruption and crime.
According to Mousavi, Iranians had been anticipating the government to initiate gradual reforms over the past twelve months in response to the protests of 2022-2023.
“It became clear that the government does not intend to reform its authoritarian attitude and has even hastened its enforcement from the beginning of the summer, when the approval of the Hijab and Chastity bill was proposed, until the end of the year when the previous process of extensive purification [of the political structure] and disqualification [of candidates], even for independent persons, continued. We saw the outcome in people's [refusal to] participate in the parliamentary elections,” she said.
Iran’s parliamentary and Assembly of Experts elections saw a record low voter turnout this year.
“In the past year, not only women's demands were not met, but the political conflict over the mandatory hijab also increased … The political establishment continues to fine women for not wearing the hijab by confiscating cars and sealing businesses beyond legal premises. This is an exhausting battle that consumes the limited resources of the government in the police force, fuels social dissatisfaction, and has caused even some religious people and those who wear the chador (long black veil) to oppose the mandatory hijab,” Mousavi who says half of young professionals leaving the country are women told Khabar Online.
Experts have long been warning about the dire consequences of the emigration of skilled workforce, like medical professionals, but government officials have historically denied the importance of the matter or ignored the warnings.
Nevertheless, in February authorities said new measures had been taken to prevent the emigration of experts that involved the passport and immigration authority.
In a recent article, EcoIran, an economic news website, highlighted that workforce emigration is no longer limited to physical relocation. The rise of virtual citizenship and remote work, especially during and after the pandemic, has led to a significant increase in digital emigration among Iranians.
This shift, the article said, has led to the “migration of the activities of creative and expert workforce to international businesses”, the article said while warning that the growing desire to emigrate serves as an “alarm bell” that has been ringing for several years, yet remains largely unheeded.
The IMO, a research institute established during then-President Rouhani’s second term, at Sharif University of Technology, tracks data and generates analyses on emigration, with a particular focus on informing policymakers.
In its 2022 report, Iran Migration Observatory (IMO) stated that Iran ranked 17th among countries with the highest number of individuals seeking education abroad and 54th among those with the highest emigration rates.
“This threat is about opening a broad front against the Zionist regime, which is probably the most dangerous of all fronts because it could geographically threaten all the cities of the occupied territories and could facilitate attacks against many of the most sensitive targets, including Tel Aviv and [Israel’s] nuclear facilities,” Iran's semi-official ISNA wrote.
According to the agency, following Israel’s attacks against Iran's consulate building in Damascus, Iraq’s Hezbollah voiced its readiness to provide "Jordanian resistance forces” with light and medium weapons, anti-armor weapons, advanced missiles, and millions of tons of explosives and ammunitions.
“Axis of resistance” or “resistance forces” are terms coined by the Iranian authorities to refer to Tehran’s proxies in the region, such as Hamas, Hezbollah, Hashd al-Shaabi in Iraq and Yemeni Houthis.
“The resistance is ready to take the necessary measures. The mere order of Hamas and Islamic Jihad is enough to block the land route to the occupied territories,” ISNA quoted Abu Ali al-Askari, head of security for Iraqi Hezbollah, as saying.
Though Tehran has avoided any direct military involvement in the Israel-Hamas conflict, it has used its proxy groups such as Houthis and Hezbollah to attack Israeli and American targets in the region. However, there are concerns that the recent deadly Israeli air strike in Damascus and Iran’s possible response might lead to serious escalation in the Middle East.
On Monday, a precision Israel strike killed seven IRGC officers in Damascus, including Mohammad Reza Zahedi, the highest-ranking commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Quds Force (IRGC-QF) in Lebanon and Syria, and his deputy, Mohammadhadi Haji Rahimi.
Since then, Tehran’s officials have vowed revenge against Israel. In a message released Tuesday, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said, “The nefarious regime [of Israel] will be punished by our brave men. We will make them regret this crime and other ones like it, by God's will.”
In a statement issued on Saturday, the IRGC thanked the supporters of the government who participated in the funeral and burial ceremonies of those killed in the Israeli strike. “To the heroic and revolutionary nation of Iran, we assure you that your zealous children in the IRGC will, by the grace of God, fulfill the national demand in inflicting a regrettable punishment on the Zionist enemy and its supporters,” the statement read.
Meanwhile, Mohammad Bagheri, Chief of Staff of Iran's Armed Forces, threatened the harshest possible response to Israel. However, he emphasized the Islamic Republic’s strategic approach towards recent developments, further adding that Tehran will determine the time and type of the retaliatory operation itself.
Considering such statements from Bagheri and some other Iranian officials, analysts contend that the regime's longstanding strategy of refraining from direct engagement with Israel will persist.
Earlier in the day, ultra-conservative lawmaker Hossein Jalali remarked that Iranian officials do not consider it expedient to implicate the country in an open war with Israel. “We will respond to Israel on a proxy basis through our groups,” he maintained.
According to the lawmaker, the headquarters of the resistance front is in Iran but its armies are in different countries.
Jalali’s remarks are a rare acknowledgement of direct ties between the Iranian regime and militant groups in the region. Tehran has always claimed these groups make their own decisions and act independently. In an interview with CNN on October 31, 2023, Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian insisted that no group takes orders from Tehran, and that Iran has no proxies in the region.
Nonetheless, some observers believe that the positions expressed by Iranian officials in recent days suggest that Tehran may be looking to open new fronts in the region via its proxies in an attempt to counter Israel. This is where serious threats would put Jordan's stability in question.
In a report released on Wednesday, Ayelet Savyon, director of Iran Media Studies project at Middle East Media Research Institute (MEMRI), warned that Tehran has a “great plan” which intends to “bring down the Jordanian regime, attack Israel from the East, and thwart the Western-Sunni normalization project.”
Savyon added that in the past days, pro-Palestinian demonstrations have ramped up in Jordan, with many protesters urging Jihad against Israel, the expulsion of the US ambassador in Amman, and even toppling the Jordanian government. According to the analyst, “Jordanian sources reported on recent Iraqi-Iranian efforts to infiltrate Jordan via the Iraqi convoys delivering aid to the Palestinians.”