Iran's FM Embarks On Regional Tour After Consulate Attack
Shoring up support for a possible retaliation to last week's Israeli attack on Iran's consulate in Syria, Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian has embarked on a regional tour.
Shoring up support for a possible retaliation to last week's Israeli attack on Iran's consulate in Syria, Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian has embarked on a regional tour.
Arriving in Oman on Sunday, his visit comes just days after the deadly strike which resulted in the deaths of seven Revolutionary Guards, including senior members.
"Leading a delegation of political and parliamentary representatives, discussions will encompass bilateral and regional matters, including Gaza," stated the Iranian foreign ministry, referring to the Gaza war sparked by Iran-backed Hamas's attack on Israel on October 7.
A US official has warned of increased vigilance and readiness for potential Iranian retaliation targeting Israeli or American assets in the region as fears grow for US personnel, and in Israel, veiled announcements of countering any threats at home and abroad have been vocal from both the military and political leadership.
Airstrikes took place in eastern Lebanon early Sunday, reportedly targeting infrastructure sites associated with Hezbollah which since October 7, when Iran-backed Hamas invaded Israel, has fired over 3,100 projectiles into Israeli territory. Sunday's action followed the downing of an Israeli drone by the militant group over Lebanese territory in what is the worst conflict between Israel and Hezbollah since the second Lebanon war.
Alongside the Gaza war, the Israeli army has confirmed that 30 commanders from Hezbollah have been eliminated since the war began as well as 330 terrorists from the largest of Iran's militia groups. Over 1,400 targets have been struck from the air in Lebanon alone and 3,300 or more ground targets struck.
Iran's political and military leadership have called for harsh responses to the humiliating attack last week, believed to have struck a key IRGC-Quds Force center, with Hezbollah leader Hassan Nazrullah this weekend warning retaliation is "inevitable".
Government controlled media in Tehran has been abuzz with bellicose statements by some officials and at the same time warnings of remaining cool-headed by many pundits, following Israel’s April 1 air strike that killed seven IRGC officers in the Iranian embassy in Damascus.
The leadership of the Islamic Republic, and particularly Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei face a challenging political dilemma - launch a forceful retaliatory attack and risk a wider war, possibly involving the United States, or exercise restraint and look for less dramatic alternatives. However, Tehran’s proxies around the region, its domestic supporters, and even ordinary Iranians opposed to the government, might see any hesitation as a sign of weakness.
Former chairman of Iranian parliament’s national security and foreign policy committee, Heshmatollah Falahatpisheh, stated on Sunday that, “The interests of all actors in the region today lie in dragging Iran into war. In the current situation, Iran is alone.” He went on to accuse Russia of pursuing the same goal. Falahatpisheh emphasized that war in the Middle East is in the interest of Moscow. While Russia has refused to deliver Sukhoi-35 warplanes to Iran and its air defenses have not confronted Israeli aircraft over Syria, its diplomats engage in provocative rants at the UN Security Council.
The former lawmaker cautioned against any escalation by Iran. “The country should not make a strategic mistake while in isolation. Therefore, while strengthening defensive capabilities, Iran should not fall into the trap and sedition created by [Benjamin] Netanyahu.”
Rahman Ghahremanpour, another well-known commentator, also reiterated that Iran is alone in the region and Israel’s air strike in Damascus was a unique provocation to drag Tehran into a wider war. He also agreed with Falahatpisheh that other countries in the region would like to see Iran entangled in a war that will destroy its military power and weaken it. Although he did not name any country, but the reference could well be directed at Sunni Arab states in the region that have long been tormented by Iran’s expanding influence and armed proxies.
A relatively independent news website, Entekhab, argued that Tehran has four alternatives to choose from in deciding how to respond to Israel.
First, Iran, relying on its missile and drone capabilities, targets military or infrastructure objectives in Israel in retaliatory attacks. While punishing Israel, it will demonstrate its missile power and deterrent capability at the regional and international levels.
Second, in a tit-for-tat fashion Iran targets an Israeli diplomatic mission in one of the regional countries, thus demonstrating a proportional response.
Third, Iran, relying on the operational capabilities and drone power of its regional proxy groups, carries out targeted and impactful attacks on Israeli military bases and critical centers, in indirect retaliation.
Fourth, to avoid regional escalation, Iran refrains from any immediate response, instead adopting strategic patience, and engaging in a war of psychological attrition against Israel, while preserving its military power.
Entekhab concluded that considering many statements by officials and influential figures in the Iranian regime, it is safe to assume that Tehran has adopted that latter option.
“The 140% increase in the migration of young professionals in the past year … can be seen as an exit strategy resulting from loss of hope in [voluntary] change and reform in the government,” Fatemeh Mousavi, sociologist and social researcher, told Khabar Online news website in an interview Tuesday.
It appears that for many Iranians from diverse backgrounds, hope in the prospects of positive change in the country have been lost – especially for the younger generation seeing emigration as the only path toward a more promising life.
A recent telephone poll conducted by US-based Statis Consulting reveals that nearly half of Iranian youth aspire to leave the country, driven by a prevailing sense of pessimism regarding their future in their homeland.
Saeid Moidfar, chairman of the Iranian Sociological Association, recently warned that Iran is on the brink of a significant wave of emigration. Iranians perceive a bleak future in the country, with worsening economic and social conditions, alongside escalating corruption and crime.
According to Mousavi, Iranians had been anticipating the government to initiate gradual reforms over the past twelve months in response to the protests of 2022-2023.
“It became clear that the government does not intend to reform its authoritarian attitude and has even hastened its enforcement from the beginning of the summer, when the approval of the Hijab and Chastity bill was proposed, until the end of the year when the previous process of extensive purification [of the political structure] and disqualification [of candidates], even for independent persons, continued. We saw the outcome in people's [refusal to] participate in the parliamentary elections,” she said.
Iran’s parliamentary and Assembly of Experts elections saw a record low voter turnout this year.
“In the past year, not only women's demands were not met, but the political conflict over the mandatory hijab also increased … The political establishment continues to fine women for not wearing the hijab by confiscating cars and sealing businesses beyond legal premises. This is an exhausting battle that consumes the limited resources of the government in the police force, fuels social dissatisfaction, and has caused even some religious people and those who wear the chador (long black veil) to oppose the mandatory hijab,” Mousavi who says half of young professionals leaving the country are women told Khabar Online.
Experts have long been warning about the dire consequences of the emigration of skilled workforce, like medical professionals, but government officials have historically denied the importance of the matter or ignored the warnings.
Nevertheless, in February authorities said new measures had been taken to prevent the emigration of experts that involved the passport and immigration authority.
In a recent article, EcoIran, an economic news website, highlighted that workforce emigration is no longer limited to physical relocation. The rise of virtual citizenship and remote work, especially during and after the pandemic, has led to a significant increase in digital emigration among Iranians.
This shift, the article said, has led to the “migration of the activities of creative and expert workforce to international businesses”, the article said while warning that the growing desire to emigrate serves as an “alarm bell” that has been ringing for several years, yet remains largely unheeded.
The IMO, a research institute established during then-President Rouhani’s second term, at Sharif University of Technology, tracks data and generates analyses on emigration, with a particular focus on informing policymakers.
In its 2022 report, Iran Migration Observatory (IMO) stated that Iran ranked 17th among countries with the highest number of individuals seeking education abroad and 54th among those with the highest emigration rates.