US Reportedly Issues Visa To Iran's Foreign Minister

Alireza Tangsiri, Commander of the Navy of the IRGC, claimed that “the only way to confront Zionists is to create a coalition of Islamic armies,” the latest in a string of military top brass in Iran along with government officials to call for strong retaliatory action.

His comments come as an unconfirmed report suggests that Tehran made assurances to Washington that it would not retaliate against Israel following an airstrike that killed two IRGC commanders and five senior military officials in Syria. 

The alleged agreement is seen by some as Tehran's attempt to avoid escalating tensions with both Israel and the United States, potentially in pursuit of sanctions relief. Speculation remains that Iran's proxies would carry out retaliatory attacks as opposed to Iran. 

Since the outbreak of the Gaza war, triggered by Iran-backed Hamas's invasion of Israel, Iran's proxies have been attacking Israel from Gaza, the Lebanon border, Syria and from the Red Sea coast in the country's south.

While Iranian officials have issued threats of retaliation, led by the Supreme Leader, they have also exercised caution, claiming that they will act at an opportune time and under suitable conditions.

Israel's action did not only corner Hezbollah, Iran's primary quasi-state proxy on the bloody chessboard of their ongoing conflict but have also eliminated key military leaders. Amid various pundits attempting to predict Iran's next move, many are acknowledging the significant factor of Iran's nuclear program lurking in the background.

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's "fatwa" and opinion on the prohibition of producing nuclear weapons "may change tomorrow," Mahmoud-Reza Aghamiri, the president of Tehran's Beheshti University and a pro-regime professor of nuclear physics, told Iran's state TV this week. Aghamiri says Iran currently has the technology and capability to develop a nuclear bomb, and under such circumstances, developing it is easier than not making it.

The punditry and analyses on a possible “direct” clash between Iran and Israel is indeed all over the map. Some, whilst citing “warnings from unnamed Israeli officials behind the scenes” wonder whether or not Iran will strike Israel back from its own territory. Others probe whether it will have its proxies to escalate their asymmetrical strikes against Israel. And last but not least, a handful quibble over whether Israel’s strike would give President Joe Biden the occasion to proclaim support for Israel against Iran but further pressure Israel to heed the US’ demands on the conclusion of the war in Gaza and negotiations with Hamas for the release of the hostages.

On this very outlet, in an article published four days after Hamas attack on October 11, 2023, Benjamin Weinthal covered various sides of a debate on the (unlikely) possibility of a joint US-Israeli attack against Iran as a state sponsor of Hamas.

On the conventional front, The gravity of Israel’s situation cannot be exaggerated. The Hezbollah of Lebanon is armed with thousands of conventional rockets and cruise missiles that can potentially swarm and overwhelm the Israeli Air Defense Shield and Iron Dome and the analyses of Israel’s ability to take all Hezbollah’s arsenal preemptively has been the subject of much debate.

What most observers do not take into account is the possibility that the Israeli attack on the Iranian embassy in Damascus may trigger a rude awakening amongst the IRGC top brass and Khamenei. It might prompt them to hasten the development of their nuclear deterrence capabilities. Despite the regime's longstanding vow to eliminate Israel, dating back to before 1979, the tensions between Iran and Israel are mutual and deep-rooted.

Israel is presently wary of the Iranian ability to deploy a handful of nuclear warheads and the IDF has been preparing itself for a decisive strike on the Iranian nuclear facilities for quite some time before the Hamas October 7 attack on Israel. Israel, as is discussed below, has been acutely aware of Iran’s ever growing weaponization capacity as early as 2018.

Yet Israel’s collective sense of insecurity is not simply rooted in its fear of its enemies or the deep-seated collective trauma of the Holocaust. Israel’s primary source of insecurity is rooted in its historical roller coaster experience of its alliances. The Soviet de jure recognition of Israel and support for its war of independence against the Arab nations was short-lived and inadequate. France was Israel’s major military supplier for much of the 1950s to the mid-1960s, and upon her aid Israel developed its conventional and unconventional nuclear programs. But France proved unreliable when President De Gaulle sought a rapprochement with Israel’s Arab enemies and abandoned Israel in the mid-1960s. From the mid-1960s, the United States became Israel’s sole guarantor and ally in all aspects of economy and military from research and development, joint aeronautical and space projects to the development of the sophisticated air-defense systems, namely, “the Iron-Dome”, and the latest sophisticated UAVs.

The United States itself has wavered in its “unequivocal support” for Israel at least on three different occasions. First, President Dwight Eisenhower refused to support Israel in its collusion with the Anglo-French powers during the 1956 Suez Crisis. In fact, Eisenhower turned his back on Israel as he feared escalation with the Soviet Union. Incidentally, there are commentators who believe that President Biden should treat Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to a similar set of measures that Eisenhower imposed on Israel in 1956.

There are indeed those in the US who believe Johnson failed to act to prevent Israel’s occupation of the West Bank in 1967 and this is a legacy from which Biden must take harsh lessons and act accordingly. Finally, President Barack Obama’s administration sidelined Israel’s Netanyahu to cajole Tehran’s ruling mullahs into the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) over their nuclear program causing Israel to distance itself ever farther from the Euro-American alliance. Israel has been less than forthcoming about sharing the details of its assassination and sabotage operations with its Euro-American allies ever since. According to some reports, “the CIA does not know” if Israel plans to bomb Iran.”

Today, Israel and Netanyahu are almost identical in their shared sense of insecurities. Even though a majority of Israelis may not vote him to office if elections were held today, they share the same sense of insecurity that has been the compass of his five mandates over the past thirty years. At the core of this sense of insecurity lies Iran’s nuclear program. Since 2018, Israel has taken possession of thousands of documents that lay bear all the militaristic directions of the Iranian nuclear program (Revealed: Emptying of the Iranian “Atomic Warehouse” at Turquz Abad). Over nearly 15 years, Israel is alleged to have succeeded in sabotaging many critical sites of the Iranian nuclear industrial complex. Moreover, Israel is accused of having masterminded the operations that eliminated Iranian nuclear scientists in the same period. Nonetheless, since Donald Trump left the JCPOA, the Iranian regime has progressively accelerated its uranium enrichment and proved Israel’s, read Netanyahu’s, worst fears. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is effectively and totally is in the dark per the latest reports of IAEA and its dire warnings about the exact state of the Iranian nuclear program. In view of the above, it appears that Israel’s assassination and sabotage operations against the Iranian scientists and nuclear sites have effectively failed.

Israeli-American air forces joint drills for long range operations in the summer of 2023 revealed how alarmed both US and Israel were about the Iranian nuclear program. It was speculated at the time that such drills were to prepare both air forces for a joint operation on the Iranian nuclear facilities. Meanwhile, the Americans were in the midst of secret negotiation with the Iranians to reach an “informal nuclear agreement”.

However, joint exercises of such magnitude with any ally are always planned long in advance and are indicative of longstanding concerns. Accordingly, the joint US-Israeli hint at the fact that the Biden administration did neither have any confidence in the success of those secret negotiations with Iran, nor was it assured of the Iranian side’s honoring any such accord. Three weeks before Hamas attack on Israel, a most telling paragraph in the IDF statement on Israeli and Hellenic air forces’ joint drills for long range operations reads as follows: “The exercise is part of a series of exercises and models carried out by the IAF in the past year and their purpose is to improve operational and mental competence for long-range flights, refueling, attacks in the depth [of enemy territory] and achieving air superiority.”

Khamenei, per his religious edict, fatwa, has stated time and again that the manufacturing and usage of nuclear weapons is forbidden. However, Israel’s elimination of two high-ranking IRGC general inside the Iranian embassy’s compound in Damascus has established that there is no red line that it will not cross to maximize its security and minimize all risks. Such an escalating assault may cause the Iranian ruling clerics and the IRGC to wonder if their nuclear facilities will be next on Israel’s target list and they may consider attaining a deterrence greater than a conventional one. Khamenei may indeed invoke the principle of expediency to overrule his own “anti-Nuclear” fatwa. The principle of expediency, as decreed by the regime’s founder Ayatollah Khomeini in January 1988, stipulates that the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic may even violate the fundamental tenets of the Islamic faith in order to preserve “the Islamic Regime” as the preservation of the Islamic Regime supersedes all else.

Thus, if Israel continues to expand its unrelenting attacks on IRGC top brass and Iranian military and diplomatic facilities in the region, and the Iranian regime continues to plunge into the depths of a maelstrom of economic troubles, will Khamenei perceive such an assault as compromising the survival of the regime? And if so what will he do? Will he invoke the principle of expediency and order the rapid manufacturing of nuclear devices and their deployment in the form of a dozen or so warheads? Or will he be resigned to Israel’s overwhelming assault on its proxies and, like his predecessor, will drink from the poisonous chalice of surrender?

According to a statement from the US Central Command (CENTCOM) on social media, "The US government transferred over 5,000 AK-47s, machine guns, sniper rifles, RPG-7s, and over 500,000 rounds of 7.62mm ammunition to the Ukrainian armed forces" on April 4. “These weapons will help Ukraine defend against Russia’s invasion.”

The arms and ammunition were confiscated from four "stateless vessels" between May 2021 and February 2023 while in transit from Iran's Revolutionary Guards to Yemen's Houthi rebels, CENTCOM revealed.

The US government obtained ownership of the munitions on December 1, 2023, through the Department of Justice’s civil forfeiture claims against Iran’s IRGC.

CENTCOM said it remains committed to collaborating with allies and partners to stem the flow of Iranian weapons in the region through lawful measures, including in violation of UN and US sanctions, and interdictions.

Since January, the US has intercepted multiple shipments of advanced weaponry destined for the Houthis in Yemen. These weapons violate international law and have been used to threaten international commerce.

On January 11, CENTCOM forces intercepted a dhow during a routine flag check. The vessel was transporting advanced weaponry from Iran to Houthi rebels in Yemen “to resupply Houthi forces in Yemen as part of the Houthis’ ongoing campaign of attacks against international merchant shipping.”

“Seized items include propulsion, guidance, and warheads for Houthi medium range ballistic missiles (MRBMs) and anti-ship cruise missiles (ASCMs), as well as air defense associated components. Initial analysis indicates these same weapons have been employed by the Houthis to threaten and attack innocent mariners on international merchant ships transiting in the Red Sea,” CENTCOM said.

In late January, a US Coast Guard vessel operating in the Arabian Sea seized another shipment of advanced weaponry originating in Iran and destined for Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen.

The Coast Guard team found over 200 packages containing components for medium-range ballistic missiles, explosives, drones, military communications equipment, and anti-tank missile launchers.

“This is yet another example of Iran’s malign activity in the region,” said Gen. Michael Erik Kurilla, CENTCOM commander. “Their continued supply of advanced conventional weapons to the Houthis is in direct violation of international law and continues to undermine the safety of international shipping and the free flow of commerce.”

The Houthi rebels, who have been targeting vessels in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden since November 2023, claim solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza. The maritime blockade aims to force a ceasefire on Israel but has expanded from targeting Israeli vessels to a global assault. The attacks began after Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei called on Muslims in early November to blockade Israel.

The recent transfer to Ukraine mirrors a similar one conducted by Washington in early October when 1.1 million rounds of 7.62mm ammunition seized from Iranian forces en route to Yemen were given to Ukraine to address dire shortages in its defensive against Russia.

However, the delivery of artillery and air defense munitions to Ukraine has been hindered by Republican lawmakers who have delayed a $60 billion support package in the US Congress since last year. Consequently, Ukrainian troops have been forced to ration ammunition, uncertain of when further deliveries will occur.

Despite the obstacles, the United States announced a $300 million assistance package for Kyiv on March 12, encompassing anti-aircraft and anti-tank weapons, as well as artillery shells. This funding, sourced from reallocated savings from Pentagon expenditures, aims to sustain aid to Ukraine amidst the congressional deadlock.

The death of the man identified only as Sasan, 32, was confirmed by Mohammad Sharifi Moghadam, the Secretary-General of the Nursing Association. Sasan worked in the hospital's poisoning department which specializes in suicide attempts.

Since the pandemic, the health crisis has faced huge challenges with many in the medical profession leaving Iran to find work abroad. Experts have dubbed it an exodus which has left the profession with dire shortages.

Sharifi Moghadam criticized the negligence towards the demands of the nursing profession following the conclusion of the coronavirus pandemic, noting that many contract nurses were laid off during the period with no care taken to support them.

He said that during the pandemic, almost one third of nurses reported suicidal thoughts, a trend which continued amidst the country's ongoing economic crisis and social oppression.

Blaming the government for poor working conditions such as overwhelming workloads, poor pay and a lack of career opportunities, he said, "The field is stressful for nurses, and all officials share responsibility for creating such an atmosphere."

The alarming trend of suicides among medical students, nurses and doctors has garnered increasing attention, as evidenced by numerous reports in recent years. A study carried out by a psychiatric association last year revealed a substantial increase in suicide rates within the medical community, ranging from 3.1 to 5 times higher compared to previous periods. 

However, these will only be the reported cases, many not being attributed to suicide as it is forbidden in Islam. In February, the president of the Iranian Psychiatric Scientific Association disclosed that 16 medical residents had ended their lives within the past year alone.

Last May, MP Hossein Ali Shahriari, chairman of the Iranian parliament's Health and Treatment Committee, said around 10,000 healthcare practitioners have left Iran over the past two years to work in the Arab world seeking better opportunities. 

The statement, released on Monday emphasized that “unauthorized individuals, particularly foreign nationals, will be repatriated.”

Amid an economic crisis, the ministry stated that there is no possibility of accepting further Afghan immigrants into the country as Iran faces growing discontent about rising numbers of both legal and illegal Afghans in the country.

The ministry's public relations department appended the statement with a note, attributing its issuance to certain websites' attempts to stir anti-Afghan sentiments, although no further explanation was provided.

The announcement follows recent remarks made by Ehsan Heidari, the acting head of the Department of Foreign Nationals and Immigrants Affairs of Tehran Province in which he warned of crackdowns on illegal immigrants. .

On March 21, the IRGC-affiliated Tasnim News Agency reported the initiation of a police plan aimed at gathering and repatriating unauthorized immigrants from recreational areas in Tehran Province.

Reports of detention and expulsion of foreign nationals from Iran have become increasingly common in recent months. While the reports do not specify the nationality of those affected, it is widely understood that a significant portion of them are Afghan citizens.

The influx of Afghan migrants into Iran has sparked debate among citizens and officials alike, with differing opinions on whether their presence poses a threat or an opportunity for the regime. Estimates of the size of the Afghan diaspora population in Iran vary, with precise figures difficult to ascertain due to Afghans' reluctance to participate in official counts and registrations.

Approximately 780,000 Afghans residing in Iran possess official refugee status, leaving the majority without documentation. Over recent years, Afghan refugees have been crossing the border in significant numbers fleeing the Taliban regime, with estimates now suggesting their total population in Iran ranges between 6 to 7 million, as indicated by an expert from the Iranian Parliament's Research Center.