Despite Warnings Of Imminent Attack, Iran Keeps Suspense
President Joe Biden all but confirmed Friday night that his “Don’t” message to the Iran's government would not stop its looming retaliatory attack against Israel.
President Joe Biden all but confirmed Friday night that his “Don’t” message to the Iran's government would not stop its looming retaliatory attack against Israel.
“Sooner rather than later,” he said, when reporters asked him about the timing of Iran’s seemingly imminent attack, reiterating that the US is “devoted to the defense of Israel” and would not allow Iran “to succeed.”
Many Iranian officials have been walking the line drawn by their Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei during his speech on Wednesday, that Israel has to be “punished” for bombing Iran’s consulate in Damascus, and killing two senior Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) commanders.
On Friday, IRGC’s deputy commander of operations General Abbas Nilforushan posted an image resembling a missile with the quote by Khamenei written on it: “The Zionist regime made a mistake by attacking the Iranian consulate. It should be punished and it will be.”
For a moment Friday night, it seemed like the ‘punishment’ had started, with Hezbollah firing 40 rackets towards Israel. It had no follow up, however. The Israeli army announced that it had shot down most rockets and that those slipping through had hit open spaces.
After three days of speculation, laden with media reports quoting anonymous American sources, some began questioning the veracity of the underlying intelligence, suggesting that the regime in Iran could be playing a mind game, sowing confusion, and shaking Israel without so much as raising a finger.
But most governments seem to continue to take the threat seriously, advising their citizens to avoid traveling to –or even leave– Iran and Israel. European airlines Lufthansa, Austrian, and Air France, have suspended their flights to and from Tehran. Australian airline Qantas has paused its non-stop flights from Perth to London because the 17.5 hour flight is possible only by using Iranian airspace.
Airlines are perhaps more concerned because the memory of Iran’s last “hard revenge” is still fresh –when on January 8, 2020, following the assassination of Iran’s preeminent military man, Qassem Soleimani, the IRGC shut down the Ukrainian passenger flight PS752, killing all 176 on board. First Iran denied it had targeted the plane with two anti-air missiles, but then grudgingly admitted its role but claiming it was a missile operator error.
Many in Iran fear that they would end up paying the price, however the current crisis unfolds. A ‘significant’ attack on Israeli interests, as predicted by US intelligence, could beget severe retaliation from a beleaguered Netanyahu looking to reassert his authority. And a decision to not retaliate against Israel, many Iranians fear, could mean their government channeling its rage and anxiety inwards, taking it on the people instead of foreign militaries.
“Ali Khamenei is trying to start a war to save his failing regime,” Iranian Prince Reza Pahlavi posted on X. “But this is not a war that our nation wants. Iranians have made it clear: the criminal mafia occupying Iran does not represent our nation, our values, or our aspirations.”
In reality, the wishes or aspirations of ordinary Iranians has very little bearing on the looming crisis. The likeliest scenario, still, is Iran attacking Israeli interests through allied armed groups in the region.
CNN reported late Friday that US intelligence has observed some movement of Iranian military assets, including cruise missiles and one-way drones around the country. This may hint at direct strikes against Israel from Iranian territory, which contradicts other intelligence suggesting any potential operation would be launched by Iran’s proxies.
According to the report, US officials are unsure if these movements are offensive preparations or defensive measures in anticipation of a joint Israeli-American retaliatory strike.
Follow developments on Iran International's Live coverage of ongoing tensions between Iran and Israel.
Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz says Israel has not taken responsibility for the attack that killed seven top Iranian Revolutionary Guard commanders, but in his Eid al-Fitr sermon on Wednesday, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei held Israel responsible and promised retaliation.
Iranian officials and media have largely been silent on Friday over the prospects of a retaliation, but after reports of an attack being imminent, Khamenei’s X account retweeted the same remarks without further comments.
Two US officials told CBS News that a major Iranian attack against Israel was expected as soon as Friday, possibly to include more than 100 drones and dozens of missiles aimed at military targets inside the country. The White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby also said on Friday that an Iranian strike on Israel was possible.
Most analysts believe the Israeli strike on the Damascus embassy that the Iranian regime calls “Iranian soil” has left no other choice for the Islamic Republic than to strike back as a matter of principle and honor.
“They will retaliate but will try to keep Israelis on their toes and perplex them as long as they can before initiating an attack,” an analyst in Iran who requested anonymity told Iran International.
“For instance, they may deploy a hundred missiles to one location in the country, then move them to another. Or put their forces in a state of high alert in one place, then rescind the decision without explanation, or move them to another location,” he added.
Reports from Israel Friday indicated that Iran's use of this psychological warfare tactic has already made a lot of Israelis very nervous.
Iran International’s correspondent Babak Itzhaki in Jerusalem reported on Friday that the feeling is prevalent in Israel that the Islamic Republic and Israel’s exchange of threats and warnings has reached a final point and caused worry to the public.
Rather than preparing to get together for Sabbath as they always do, Israeli families are staying home to remain close to their safe rooms, he says, adding that municipalities are preparing themselves for some sort of attack and have been ordered to open up shelters to people if Iran's threats materialize although new instructions have not been issued so far for extra measures.
A source in Tehran told Iran International that while people are preoccupied with various local issues and controversies, the looming threat of escalation, potentially culminating in an Israeli attack on Iran, is a cause for concern. Their primary worry revolves around the potential further rise of the US dollar in Tehran and the subsequent increase in the severity of their living conditions. The Iranian currency, the rial, has depreciated by 30 percent since early January, exacerbating inflation, which is already hovering around 50 percent.
Iranian sources and diplomats from the US say Tehran has signaled to Washington that it wishes to avoid escalation and will not act hastily, Reuters reported.
“Iran wanted condemnation of Israel’s attack on the Iranian embassy by the United States, western countries and the United Nations Security Council as Foreign Minister Hossein Amir- Abdollahian pointed out,” the Iranian analyst said, adding that the only way for the Islamic Republic to hold off an attack and not to lose face is getting a big concession. “They may be maneuvering now to increase the price of holding off an attack on Israeli soil,” he added.
Iran has already begun exhibiting its preparations. According to the semi-official Iranian Students News Agency (ISNA) which cited the Army, the air defense chief of northern Iran, Brigadier General Amir-Mohammad Sadeghian, on Friday inspected “the combat readiness, equipment, and response protocols” of the force.
"It's going to be very difficult for Iran not to retaliate," Raz Zimmt, senior researcher at Israel's Institute for National Security Studies also told Reuters.
"I still believe that Iran doesn't want to engage in full-scale, direct military confrontation against Israel, and certainly not with the United States. But it has to do something," he added.
Follow developments on Iran International's Live coverage of ongoing tensions between Iran and Israel.