Iran Unprecedented Attack On Israel, Risks Serious Escalation

In an article published in Etemad daily on Friday, Ali Rabiei listed multiple crises and problems the Iranian government is currently facing. He emphasized that without addressing these issues, it would be unwise for Tehran to engage in a potential direct conflict with Israel, which would only exacerbate the situation.

Rabiei stressed the need for wise governance and effective crisis management. "We must first mitigate the impacts of existing crises to prevent the collapse of the system," he emphasized.

He pointed to economic crises including inflation hovering around 50%, declining social cohesion, and the prevailing psychological instability within society as some of the pressing crises confronting the country and its political leadership. Given these circumstances, Rabiei advocated for the adoption of "conciliatory policies" to reduce tensions and foster unity and empathy within society.

Multiple nationwide anti-regime protests have shaken the clerical-military rulers of the Islamic Republic since 2018. Security forces have killed thousands of protesters and jailed tens of thousands of others to quell the largest unrests in November 2019 and in 2022-23. In the parliamentary elections on March 1, a sizeable majority of voters stayed home, further damaging the legitimacy of the ruling apparatus.

Although Rabiei did not explicitly mention the government’s compulsory hijab policy in his article, his statements could be interpreted as implicit criticism of the controversial hijab enforcement campaign initiated by law enforcement agencies, which came into effect on Saturday.

Earlier in the day, Iranian media reported the arrest of the wife and daughter of Ahmadreza Abedzadeh, a prominent figure in Iranian football history, in Tehran for refusing to comply with hijab regulations. Many women have forsaken the hijab, a phenomenon deeply unsettling for the ruling clerics, who see women’s defiance as a direct challenge to their ideological hold over the society.

The regime's repressive domestic policies and mounting pressures, particularly on women, have fueled widespread dissatisfaction and delegitimized the government. Similarly, Tehran's foreign policy towards Israel, and its controversial nuclear program, have isolated the country and badly damaged its oil-dependent economy.

In recent days, Iranian officials have escalated their anti-Israel rhetoric and vowed revenge for Israel’s April 1 strike that killed seven IRGC forces in Damascus. On Saturday, IRGC naval forces seized a Portuguese-flagged cargo ship near the Strait of Hormuz, alleging it belonged to an Israeli billionaire.

However, the Iranian market does not seem to view the IRGC’s actions as a success, as evidenced by the record fall in the value of the national currency, the rial. On Saturday, the US dollar rose to the unprecedented level of 660,000 rials in Iran’s free market.

Meanwhile, the relatively independent news website Khabaronline reported a significant increase in criticism against President Ebrahim Raisi, with many of his supporters calling for a cabinet reshuffle to address the demands of the people. According to the website, economic fluctuations have severely impacted the prices of essential goods and people's livelihoods, necessitating urgent action to reverse the trend.

Eqtesad 24 news website reported in February that nearly one in every three Iranians currently lives below the poverty line due to soaring inflation over the past five years.

Follow developments on Iran International's Live coverage of ongoing tensions between Iran and Israel.

However, the Israeli officials did not specify the nature of the response or its timing.

Israel's military said it was sounding sirens in locations throughout the country early on Sunday, as Iran International’s live broadcast from Israel showed multiple interceptions of incoming projectiles.

Although it was not clear if drones or missiles were being destroyed by multiple Israeli air defense systems, our correspondent believed some anti-missile defenses were also operating at around 2:00 am local time.

Israel's Magen David Adom ambulance service said early on Sunday that it had received no word of any casualties from Iranian drones launched at the country, many of which local media described as having been intercepted.

Jordanian jets downed dozens of Iranian drones flying across northern and central Jordan heading to Israel, two regional security sources told Reuters.

The sources said the drones were brought down in the air on the Jordanian side of the Jordan Valley and were heading in the direction of Jerusalem. Others were intercepted close to the Iraqi-Syrian border. They gave no further details.

Israel plans a "significant response" to the unprecedented Iranian drone salvo against it, top-rated Channel 12 TV quoted an unnamed senior Israeli official as saying early on Sunday.

An Israeli defense official told Army Radio that more than 100 Iranian drones have already been intercepted outside of Israeli airspace, out of hundreds fired at Israel.

The report said the drones were downed by the United States and the United Kingdom. Earlier, the IDF said it had identified more than 100 drones heading toward Israel.

Follow developments on Iran International's Live coverage of ongoing tensions between Iran and Israel.

He said the Israeli Air Force is tracking the drones, while noting that they will take several hours to reach the country.

Hagari warned that there will be GPS disruptions as the military works to intercept the drones.

State-linked media in Iran is reporting that a second wave of drones has been launched by the Islamic Republic at Israel.

Sirens will only sound if the drones enter Israeli airspace, at the relevant locations, Hagari said, adding that the IDF will work to intercept the targets as early as possible.

Israel's Channel 12 says the US was the first to identify the launch of drones and immediately notified Israel.

Israel's official Persian X account quoted Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as saying, "In recent years, especially in recent weeks, Israel has been preparing for the possibility of a direct attack by Iran. Our defense systems are ready, we are prepared for any scenario, both defensively and offensively. Israel is strong, the Israeli army is strong, and the people of Israel are strong." There is no immediate statement from the IDF on news about the reported attack.

Al Arabiya quoted an unnamed US official as saying that the drones were launched from Iranian territory.

Earlier on Saturday, in an English-language video statement Daniel Hagari, the chief spokesperson for the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), said, "Iran funds, trains, and arms terror proxies across the Middle East and beyond…Iran will bear the consequences for choosing to escalate the situation any further.” He added that Israel is on high alert, increasing readiness to defend against Iranian aggression and prepared to respond.

The statement by Hagari comes shortly after the IRGC seized an Israeli-linked container ship near Strait of Hormuz today, and reports having surfaced yesterday, notably on ABC News, citing US officials stating that Iran has readied more than 100 cruise missiles for an imminent attack on Israel. Meanwhile, American officials, speaking to CNN, warned of a potential Iranian attack from within its territory with possible involvement of regional proxies in retaliatory strikes, targeting locations in Israel.

International efforts, including those from the United States and supported by European and UK allies, have been focused on de-escalating the situation and maintaining stability in the region.

Earlier today, UK foreign secretary David Cameron announced that he spoke to the Israeli minister and war cabinet member Benny Gantz and discussed “our shared concerns about Iranian threats to attack Israel” with Gantz. “Further escalation in the region is in no one’s interest and risks further loss of civilian life,” he added.

Furthermore, the UK Royal Marines stand ready to coordinate a significant evacuation of British citizens from the Middle East in case of an attack on Israel.

In response to the escalating tensions, yesterday, US President Joe Biden reiterated the his commitment to Israel's security while warning of a confirmed retaliatory attack by Iran “sooner than later.". Meanwhile, Secretary of State Anthony Blinken engaged in discussions with his Jordanian counterpart to address the need to prevent further escalation by Iran. The Pentagon reiterated the US commitment to Israel's security against Iranian threats, echoing President Biden's support for Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu. The visit of top US general Michael "Erik" Kurilla to Israel was expedited to address current security concerns, while Republican Senator Joni Ernst commended Biden's support for Israel amid tensions with Iran.

Safaei further reports that according to Israel TV Channel 11, even Hamas is waiting to see Tehran's reaction to the killing of IRGC commanders in Damascus. Meanwhile, Iran International's correspondent in Lebanon, May Farhat reports that Lebanon is also closely monitoring the situation and anticipating Iran's response with reports of increased Hezbollah activity along the Lebanon-Syria border, potentially preparing for military operations in line with Iran's retaliation. On the other hand, speaking to Iran International reporters, Fares Souaid, from the “National Council for the Ending Iranian Occupation" in Lebanon, stated that Iran won't escalate tensions further, attributing the situation to Israel's possible reaction suggesting that Iran prefers proxy conflicts over direct confrontation with Israel.

Several countries, including Germany, India, France, Poland, and Russia have responded by issuing travel warnings for citizens in Iran and suspending flights to the region. Germany has advised its citizens to leave Iran immediately.

Although no concrete evidence of an Iranian attack on Israel has been determined so far other than psychological warfare tactics, Israel's heightened alertness underscores the precarious situation in the region, with the specter of conflict looming amidst escalating tensions with Iran.

US officials, including President Joe Biden have been warning in the past two days about a potential Iranian retaliatory attack against Israel that could spiral into a wider military confrontation in the region.

“We recommend that U.S. citizens in Lebanon monitor Travel.State.Gov for alerts and the news closely for breaking developments that could affect internal security,” the Embassy announced.

Further, the announcement warned against travel to potentially dangerous part of the country. “U.S. citizens should avoid travel to the Lebanon-Israel border area, the Lebanon-Syria border area, and refugee settlements. In all parts of Lebanon, you should avoid demonstrations and exercise caution if in the vicinity of any large gatherings or protests.”

Historically, a large number of American-Lebanese dual nationals have lived in Lebanon, as well as visiting Americans who may be affiliated with the American University of Beirut or other organizations.

Many European countries have either evacuated government employees, their families, or have made preparations for emergency evacuation from certain parts of the Middle East, including Iran. Several European airlines have also temporarily suspended flights to Iran.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guard seized a cargo vessel in the Persian Gulf on Saturday claiming that it is Israeli. Apparently, the ship belongs to a company which is partly owned by an Israeli investor.

Follow developments on Iran International's Live coverage of ongoing tensions between Iran and Israel.