Iran International
While supporters of the Islamic Republic are celebrating Saturday’s missile attack on Israel, most ordinary Iranians are deeply concerned about the economic consequences of further escalation and possibility of a full-scale war.
These worries immediately became evident after Iran announced it had launched drones and missiles that would reach Israel within the next few hours. In several cities long queues formed at gas stations.
This as some groups of tens to a few hundreds of government supporters began their “celebrations” in the streets of some cities.
The general public's worries were not unfounded. The rial depreciated rapidly, even before the missiles neared Israel, falling to more than 700,000 against the dollar.
Sources in Tehran tell Iran International that the government has intervened to recover the rial’s lost value by injecting dollars into the market – taking extreme measures, such as threatening exchange bureaus and online traders with closure, to bring down the rates. Consequently, on Sunday the rial managed to recover almost to the level before the attack to around 660,000 to the dollar.
Government supporters celebrating at Tehran’s Palestine Square Saturday evening
The Tehran Stock Exchange also fell by 11,000 points (around 0.5 percent) by the end of trading on Sunday, but recovered by around five thousand points by midday Monday.
Authorities have prosecuted at least two journalists and two newspapers, including Jahan-e Sanat, an economic daily, for expressing concern over the political and economic consequences of escalation in the situation for “threatening people’s psychological security” and urged people to report anyone who takes Israel’s “side” on social media.
“Most people are still spectators of what is happening and are waiting to see what is to happen next. I don’t see patriotism and a common feeling of national pride for the attack which was on a much bigger scale than anyone thought,” Saman, a 47-year-old retailer in Tehran, told Iran International. “Most people I know believed that the ‘hard revenge’ would be limited to an attack on an Israeli embassy in one of our neighboring countries such as Georgia, Armenia or Azerbaijan,” he said.
According to Saman, people’s discussions of the situation are mainly focused on economic matters such as foreign exchange rates, the rise in the cost of housing, food, and higher inflation in general as a result of the current crisis.
This was corroborated by the statements issued by a teachers and a workers union. The Coordination Council of Teachers Associations, which is highly critical of government policies and often organizes protest rallies through its social media channels, said in a short statement on its Telegram channel that it considers the real victims of the Saturday attack on Israel to be the ordinary Iranians whose livelihoods have been affected by the cost of building the missile and drone arsenal used in the attack and its consequences.
“If a full-scale war happens, displacement and poverty will affect the [Iranian] people who are already engrossed in the difficulties of providing the minimums of their living,” the statement which also referred to Israel as “fascist” said.
The Independent Iranian Workers Union (IIWU), an underground union formed by expelled and unemployed workers in 2006, too, described the Saturday drone and missile strike as “adventurism” in a short statement on its Telegram channel and warned that Iran will turn into “scorched earth” if the conflict continues and deepens in scope.
A third group of Iranians, many among whom are supporters of the return of the monarchy, have taken Israel’s side on social media and in messages they have sent to Iran International. Images they have posted on social media show graffiti on the walls in both Persian and English.
One such graffiti reads “Hit them, Israel. Iranians are behind you.” in English. Another one in Persian promises Israel popular protests to topple the regime if Israel retaliates for the Saturday attack.
The reformist opposition has largely avoided criticism of the missile strike, while expressing concern about further escalation.
Mohammad Ali Abtahi, a prominent reformist politician and senior aide to former President Mohammad Khatami, accordingly, welcomed the strike in a tweet but called for an end to the conflict.
“War is a sinister phenomenon. The mission of the world and humanity is to prevent it. Israel attacked the Iranian consulate. The Islamic Republic responded powerfully in defense. For its part, Iran announced that it does not intend to continue [the conflict] and [engage in] war. Now it is the duty of the world to prevent the continuation of this tension. May God protect Iran and Iranians,” he wrote.
Follow developments on Iran International's Live coverage of ongoing tensions between Iran and Israel.
Prominent 'reformist' commentator Abbas Abdi, investigative journalist Hossein Dehbashi, and whistle-blower Yashar Soltani, who recently exposed a prominent cleric's corruption, have been accused of “compromising national security" following their comments regarding Iran's attack on Israel's soil.
The punitive measures extend beyond journalists to include citizens. On Sunday, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) threatened to take action against any online expression of support for Israel.
The Iranian government launched over 350 drones and missiles into Israel on Saturday night in retaliation for an airstrike on its consulate compound in Damascus on April 1, for which they blamed Israel. Several members of the IRGC, including two top commanders, were killed in the attack.
In spite of regime celebrations of the attack, Abdi remained outspoken, claiming, "Contrary to popular belief, I believe that Israel's attack was a reaction which does not require Iran's response and reaction."
Over 700 journalists have been arrested since the 2022 uprising with more crackdowns expected in the wake of the bombardment, Iran among the world's least safe places for journalists. At home and abroad, the regime has sought to silence voices of dissent, including attacks on Iran International journalists abroad.
Follow developments on Iran International's Live coverage of ongoing tensions between Iran and Israel.
The unprecedented attack on Israel -- the territory of a key US ally -- though anticipated, was unparalleled.
Contrary to the Islamic Republic’s armed forces chief, who claimed the attack “achieved all its objectives,” the IDF spokesperson reports that 99% of the threats were intercepted by the air defense system, resulting in negligible impact.
On April 12, at approximately 9:33 pm London time, Tehran confirmed the initiation of its attack.
A wave of drones was dispatched from Iran, some 1200 kilometers away, towards Israel.
An Iranian Shahed 136 Drone, with the maximum speed of 185 k/h takes hours to cover a distance of 1200 kilometers -- suggesting that Israel had a heads-up several hours in advance. Missiles were launched almost an hour later, according to the Islamic Revolutionary Guards (IRGC).
The Iron Dome is commonly recognised as Israel's primary defense against missiles and rockets. But, Israel's defense shield consists of five layers -- with the Iron Dome counting as one. In preparation for such an attack, Israel has been developing its air defense system for the past 15 years.
Its first tier, the Iron beam, destroys the projectile with a pillar of laser light. Like the Iron Dome, its detection radar becomes active, and the laser gun targets the objective. It is used for short-range missiles and artillery shells. It fills the blind spot of the Iron Dome. According to the IDF it is yet to be operational.
The second tier, the most renowned, is the Iron Dome. When a rocket is fired towards Israel, the rocket radar detects and tracks it. The control system estimates the impact point, and finally the nearest launcher engages and launches a missile towards the rocket. The success rate of the Iron Dome system is close to 96%, meaning out of 100 rockets, 4 of them may hit Israeli soil.
David's Sling: Israel’s military system named after the biblical story of David and Goliath. This third tier can target drones, aircraft, medium to long-range missiles, ballistic missiles, and cruise missiles covering ranges from 40 to 300 kilometers. It has the capability to provide coverage for all of Israel from a single point. David's Sling was responsible for shooting down the Hamas Ayyash 250 rocket on October 13, 2023.
According to the IDF, the Israeli Air Force and its allies successfully intercepted and destroyed all 170 drones and 30 cruise missiles outside the country's borders.
Of the 120 ballistic missiles that crossed into Israeli airspace, the IDF reported that the long-range Arrow air defense system successfully intercepted the overwhelming majority.
Arrow 2 and Arrow 3, considered the top tiers of Israel’s multilayered air defenses, complement each other, and track and destroy missiles and rockets with ranges up to 2400 kilometers.
The second factor contributing to the limited impact came from Israel's allies: fighter jets stepped up to boost interception capabilities.
Reports indicate that jets from the US, UK, France, and Jordan formed a robust barrier against the onslaught of drones and missiles from the Islamic Republic.
US forces hit over 80 one-way attack drones, US Central Command (CENTCOM) said on Monday – meaning that the US downed 47% of Iran’s launched drones.
This was the first-ever attack from Iranian soil on Israel.
An attack that diverted attention from the Gaza war towards the Islamic Republic and united the international community in support of Israel and condemnation of the Iranian government.
Now, as the IRGC authorities declare the conclusion of their operation, Israel asserts that the battle is far from over, hinting at a forthcoming retaliation against the Islamic Republic.
But, for the time being Israel’s next move remains uncertain.