Israel and Iran exchanged warnings and threats Monday, as the US government set out to contain the looming Israeli attack, fearing that a tit-for-tat between could lead to an all-out war.
Several Israeli officials have stated that Iran’s larger-than-expected attack would not be left unanswered, even though 99% of all Iranian missiles and drones were intercepted by Israeli defense systems and allied air forces.
“Iran will face the consequences for its actions,” Israel Army Chief of Staff Gen. Halevi said in a video statement. “We will choose our response accordingly."
At the same time, pressure from Europe and some Arab counties might force Israel to adopt a retaliatory strategy the would be less likely to lead to a major escalation.
This was the clearest indication of Israeli intentions after the war cabinet, headed by prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, met twice in less than 24 hours to weigh their options. No details were offered officially, but Israel’s Channel N12 News claimed that the response would likely be one that hits the Iranian regime in a way that doesn’t trigger an even bigger response.
Anticipating the attack, Iran went on the propaganda offensive.
Iran's deputy foreign minister Ali Bagheri Kani said any Israeli attack would be responded to in “less than a few seconds". A member of Iran’s Islamic Parliament (Majles) went further. "We are prepared to use a weapon that we have never used," said Abolfazl Amouei, the spokesman for the Majles’ National Security Committee, urging Israel to "act wisely".
Experts and unnamed Israeli officials have suggested several ‘possible’ courses of action: large-scale cyber-attack, hitting Iranian proxies, or covert operation inside Iran. This would not surprise many, since several Iranian nuclear scientists have been killed inside Iran in the past, and there have been mysterious explosions in nuclear facilities and other strategic locations.
Israel never took responsibility for these incidents and never denied it either. Now also, Israel could attack important targets and keep silent, not putting the Iranians in a situation to be forced to respond.
Whatever the Israeli response, it will likely be consulted with the Americans, according to media reports in Israel. The Biden administration has said it will not take part or assist in the Israeli operation, downplaying the significance of the Iranian attack and highlighting Israel’s success in thwarting the offensive almost entirely.
"What we showed on Saturday night was that Iran is not militarily superior, is not 10 feet tall, and that Israel is not alone," White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby told NBC News Monday, when asked if he agrees that Iran would be emboldened without a response.
The administration’s stance has angered Biden’s more hawkish critics, who have accused him of ‘appeasing’ Iran and ‘abandoning’ Israel.
“Sadly, Iran isn't worried about the United States,” former national security advisor John Bolton told Newsmax. “They don't see Biden as having the spine to cross Iran's red line of not attacking Israel directly.”
Officials in Iran maintain that Israel’s attack on Iran’s consulate in Damascus crossed a red line and had to be responded to restore deterrence. The Israeli response would test this idea –and potentially trigger a cycle of retaliatory attacks that could spiral into a full-scale war.
“We’re on the edge of the cliff and we have to move away from it,” EU foreign affairs High Representative Josep Borrell said in a radio interview. “We have to step on the brakes and reverse gear.”
Meanwhile, analysts warn that the situation is exacerbated by the government’s apparent lack of a plan to tackle longstanding economic crisis.
Yahya Ebrahimi, a lawmaker from Delfan has said in an interview with Rouydad24 website that that if the situation remains unchanged and the government does not come up with an effective initiative, the US dollar can rise from around 650,000 rials to 1000,000.
He bemoaned the vanishing middle class in Iran, emphasizing that a considerable segment of the population now falls below the official poverty line. He highlighted President Raisi's unfulfilled promise made at the outset of his term in 2021, pledging to safeguard the country's economy from dependence, even on the unlikely prospect of improved relations with Washington. However, Ebrahimi criticized Raisi for failing to uphold this commitment.
According to Ebrahimi, Raisi's assurances regarding economic progress no longer hold weight, given the evident rise in prices, housing costs, and exchange rates, which starkly reflect the economic conditions. He further contended that the actual inflation rate far exceeds the government's reported figure of 40 to 50 percent.
Moreover, Ebrahimi asserted that government mismanagement has inflicted greater harm on the economy than the US sanctions.
Meanwhile, according to a Khabar Online report, housing costs in Iran are poised to escalate further unless the government urgently addresses the housing crisis. The report reveals that the price per square meter of housing units in Tehran surged to 810 million rials (around $1,300) in March 2024, marking a 24.8 percent increase compared to March 2023.
Kianush Goudarzi, Chairman of Tehran's Estate Agents Union, explained to Khabar Online that the spike in housing prices is primarily linked to the surge in exchange rates. Additionally, he noted that given the overall rise in prices across various sectors, an increase in housing costs is expected and natural.
In an article published in Etemad online, former government spokesman Ali Rabei underscored the grim outlook across all sectors, warning of the looming threat of social instability in Iran due to mounting unemployment and poverty. He emphasized, "Unemployment and poverty breed economic insecurity, which in turn fosters social unrest."
Rabei lamented that despite the availability of jobs, the government's low wage policies have left many unemployed individuals disinterested in seeking employment. Moreover, he highlighted the disparity between the government's claims of economic growth and the lack of tangible improvements in people's livelihoods, leaving many questioning the real impact of this purported growth.
According to centrist politician Mansour Haqiqatpour, the problem is that the government has no plan whatsoever to save the country's sinking economy. He added that neither the Raisi administration, nor the parliament have any idea about how to put an end to the ongoing economic crisis.
Conservative politician Ezzatollah Yousefian Molla attributes the surge in prices to government policies, highlighting the detrimental impact of economic instability on businesses. In an interview with Nameh News, he emphasized that restoring public trust in the government is imperative to address ongoing economic challenges.
Yousefian Molla underscored the pervasive uncertainty in the market, particularly regarding fuel prices, which has stymied business confidence. He criticized the government's indecision and inaction, citing the paralysis induced by fluctuating fuel prices as a key factor exacerbating economic instability. Additionally, he pointed out that discussions surrounding potential tax hikes on businesses and individuals further contribute to the prevailing sense of uncertainty.