Analysis on satellite imagery obtained by Iran International confirms media reports that a central part of an air defense system at an Iranian air base in Isfahan was hit by an Israeli attack on Friday.
The overnight attack has been a subject of intense speculation and debate, fueled partly at least by Israel’s customary silence in such instances. Confirmation has come from unnamed US officials who say missiles were fired from Israeli fighter jets over Iraqi airspace and “hit” their intended target. This has been disputed by Iranian officials who say the explosions heard in Isfahan early Friday local time were caused by Iran’s defense systems hitting three “quadcopters”.
Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian told NBC News the drones took off from inside Iran and flew for a few hundred meters before being downed. "They're ... more like toys that our children play with, not drones," Amir-Abdollahian said.
The image –taken by SkyWatch on 20 April 2024– shows an air defense system in Eighth Shekari Air Base, about 20 km northeast of Isfahan and 150 km south of the nuclear facility at Natanz, the central part of which seems to have been hit.
Satellite images before and after the strike
“The image shows clearly that the system’s engagement radar, which guides the surface-to-air missiles, has been destroyed,” Farzin Nadimi, a Senior Fellow at the Washington Institute, told Iran International after analyzing the image. “Destruction on this scale can’t be caused by “toy quadcopters”, as Iranian officials suggest.”
The imagery of the Iranian S-300 air defense system shows some significant damage to its fire control radar, while the missile launchers were apparently left intact.
The damage could have been caused by the impact of a precision-guided projectile similar to the Sparrow/Rocks family of standoff air-to-ground missiles believed to have been used by Israel in its latest strike, Nadimi said.
A similar assessment was offered by New York Times earlier. Analyzing satellite imagery, the paper concluded that “the precision attack at the Eighth Shekari Air Base damaged or destroyed the “flap-lid” radar, which is used in S-300 air defense systems to track incoming targets.”
This was also suggested by Chris Biggers, a former U.S. government imagery analyst, who published on X an image taken within a few hours after explosions were heard in Isfahan.
“Imagery acquired 0648Z 19APR2024 showed evidence of damage to the Iranian S-300PMU2 strategic surface-to-air missile battery in Isfahan,” Biggers wrote. “Other battery system components however have been withdrawn from the site. Their status and location is currently unclear.”
It may be impossible to say what exactly happened in Isfahan early Friday local time without detailed disclosures from Iran and Israel. But there’s growing evidence –and growing consensus among experts– that the target of the attack was Iran’s S-300 air defense system, and it was hit.
The S-300 is a Russian long-range surface-to-air missile defense system that can track objects 300 km afar, including ballistic missiles. It has four components: surveillance radar (tracks), command vehicle (identifies target and orders launch), engagement radar (guides missiles), and six launch vehicles that surround the engagement radar, and each fires two missiles. The system can therefore target up to 6 targets with 12 missiles at once.
Russia completed the delivery of S-300 to Iran in October 2016, after years of negotiation and several postponements, mainly due to pressure from western countries and Israel –which has long claimed Islamic Republic of Iran to be an “existential threat” for Israel.
Tension has increased between Iran and Israel in recent weeks following a presumed Israeli airstrike on April 1, which destroyed a building in Iran's embassy compound in Damascus and killed several Iranian officers.
Tehran retaliated by firing hundreds of missiles and drones at Israel on April 13, marking the first-ever direct attack on Israel by the Islamic Republic, although no casualties were reported.
“The Islamic Republic of Iran will not leave unanswered any action against its national interests … Iran’s response can come in many shapes and forms but we will do it tactfully,” said Mahmoud Abbaszadeh Meshkini, who serves as a member of the National Security and Foreign Policy Commission of the Iranian parliament.
Reiterating the positions of senior Iranian officials, Abbaszadeh tried to downplay the Isfahan offensive, calling it “a show” performed by Israel in an attempt to “restore its dignity” following Iran’s missile and drone attacks last weekend. For the Israeli government, the media coverage of the incident was more important than its location and intensity, remarked the lawmaker.
On April 13, Iran launched its first ever direct offensive against Israeli territory with more than 350 drones and cruise and ballistic missiles, 99 percent of which were downed, according to the Israeli army.
Early Friday, Israel reportedly targeted Esfahan's 8th Shekari Air Base in retaliation for Iran’s offensive. Though satellite images and reports indicate that a major defense system in the airbase was damaged, Iranian officials and state media have unanimously played down the operation.
The regime has recently intensified its crackdown against critics, summoning those who have publicly expressed their disapproval of Tehran’s policy with regard to Israel. Earlier in the week, the government took legal action against a number of newspapers and influential journalists who failed to reiterate its rhetoric regarding the attack on Israel in their publications.
Prominent reformist commentator Abbas Abdi, investigative journalist Hossein Dehbashi, and whistle-blower Yashar Soltani were accused of “compromising national security” following their comments regarding Iran’s attack on Israel’s soil.
Ali Salehabadi, the managing editor of Setareh Sobh daily, criticized the government’s foreign policy with regard to Israel in shrouded remarks interwoven within the fabric of an article released on Saturday, asking what had made the West turn support Israel so soon after all but turning its back on the Jewish state.
He also asked why the Arab masses and Arab states abandoned the ideas of 'throwing Jews in the sea and destroying Israel', and turned to compromise with Israel, Salehabadi wrote. He noted that some Arab countries such as Jordan collaborated with Israel, the US, the UK, and France to intercept and down Iranian projectiles before reaching the Jewish state.
He juxtaposed Iran’s declining economy and the rising regional tensions, warning that a war with Israel would target Iran’s economy and inflict damage to the people.
In more than a decade, the country's economic growth has averaged zero. The situation has been further exacerbated since the US withdrawal from the JCPOA nuclear deal in 2018. Over the past six years, the rial, Iran’s national currency, has fallen 15-fold, fueling inflation and plunging millions of citizens into poverty. Eqtesad 24 news website reported in February that almost one in every three Iranians is currently living below the poverty line as a result of soaring inflation in the past five years.
Meanwhile, Saber Golanbari, journalist and political analyst, wrote in his Telegram channel that neither Israel nor Iran seeks a direct confrontation due to the enormous costs of a war.
“The future is likely to usher in a new round of indirect warfare in various forms. Israel will most probably try to focus more than ever on sabotage against sensitive Iranian facilities as well as on indirect assassinations,” he pointed out.
“Iran’s proxy forces can retaliate to the recent strike on [airbase in] Esfahan and Israel wants to prevent that from happening,” said Masoud Alfak, adding that “Israel now sees the best defense in an offense.”
On Friday, explosions were heard in Esfahan's 8th Shekari Air Base as Israel reportedly launched a widely anticipated strike in retaliation to a large-scale Iranian missile and drone attack over the weekend.
In less than 24 hours, airstrikes hit the headquarters and a major base of Iran-backed Hashd al-Shaabi militia (Popular Mobilization Forces) in the Babylon governorate of eastern Iraq to the south of the capital city, Baghdad.
According to Alfak, a vast network of hybrid warfare is currently underway between Israel and Iran and its proxies in the region. “Israel considers Tehran-backed proxy groups as part of its conflict with Iran.”
The Dubai-based analyst remarked that as long as the war in Gaza continues and Iran-Israel tensions persist, Tehran-backed proxies will continue their destabilizing actions in the region and will refuse to stay peaceful.
No one has claimed responsibility for the overnight strikes on Hashd al-Shaabi positions in Iraq. In a post on X, the US Central Command (CENTCOM) dismissed reports that Washington had a part in the operation. Citing an unnamed Israeli official, CNN reported that Israel also denied involvement in the incident.
For months after the start of the Israel-Hamas war on October 7, the Iranian government avoided direct involvement in the conflict and used its proxies such as Yemeni Houthis, Hashd al-Shaabi, and Hezbollah to target Israeli and American interests in the region.
Tensions between Iran and Israel have risen sharply over the past weeks. On April 1, Israel launched a precision missile strike on Iran's consulate building in Damascus, including Mohammad Reza Zahedi, the highest-ranking commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Quds Force (IRGC-QF) in Lebanon and Syria. In retaliation, Iran launched its first ever direct strike against Israeli territory on April 14 with more than 350 drones and cruise and ballistic missiles.
In a post on X, Jason Brodsky, Policy Director at United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI), attributed the overnight strikes in Iraq to Israel. “On April 17, Iraq’s national security advisor Qasim Al-Araji, a member of IRGC terrorists-backed Badr Organization, said Iran’s regime’s attack on Israel on April 13 created ‘a new deterrent policy’ in the region. And this is Israel’s response to him tonight in Iraq,” Brodsky pointed out.
Since October 7, Iran-backed forces in Iraq have been threatening to target Israel. Their anti-Israel rhetoric intensified after the April 1 attack in Damascus. Following the incident, the Iranian proxies in Iraq claimed two drone attacks on Israeli territory, one in Haifa and another in Golan Heights.
Furthermore, Tehran-backed Iraqi Hezbollah voiced its readiness to arm and equip 12,000 forces of “the Islamic resistance” in Jordan, threatening that country’s stability and the Hashemite kingdom.
“This threat is about opening a broad front against the Zionist regime, which is probably the most dangerous of all fronts because it could geographically threaten all the cities of the occupied territories and could facilitate attacks against many of the most sensitive targets, including Tel Aviv and [Israel’s] nuclear facilities,” Iranian semi-official news agency ISNA reported on April 4.