Israeli Insider Reveals Motivation Behind Last Month’s Strike in Iran

Mehrabi, arrested last year, was charged with “corruption on earth”—a vague term that Iran employs to describe various offenses, including blasphemy and actions against Islamic morals, all stemming from his online activism focused on justice and corruption.

The UN team of experts, led by Javaid Rehman, Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in Iran, said that "the expression of critical views online and offline cannot meet the threshold under international law for the imposition of the death penalty.” They added that the accusations against Mehrabi do not constitute "the most serious crimes."

In September, the situation escalated as Mehrabi was slapped with additional charges including “propaganda against the state”, “inciting disobedience among police and military forces”, “inciting to war”, “crimes against national security”, and “insulting Iran's founding and current supreme leaders”. Subsequently, Iran’s Revolutionary Court sentenced him to death.

The UN’s experts said “the arrest, detention and sentencing to death of Mr. Mehrabi sends a chilling message to all those who wish to express themselves freely in Iran.”

The team urged Iranian authorities to amend the constitution and the penal code to abolish the death penalty and commute all existing death sentences.

Rights group Amnesty International reported earlier this year that 853 people were executed in Iran in 2023, a record number in the last eight years. The execution wave continues with dissidents and their families being targeted across the country.

Ali Khamenei’s selection of the book by Lebanon’s Somayah Ali Hashem comes amidst renewed military tensions between Israel and Iran which peaked with Iran’s first ever direct attack on Israel last month.

Speaking to Iran International, Masoud Mafan, manager of Baran Publishing in Sweden, described Khamenei's book selection as "beating the drum of war."

On April 13, in what was reported as a response to an Israeli strike on its consulate in Damascus, Iran carried out its first direct assault on Israel, firing over 350 cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, and drones. Most of these were intercepted by Israeli defenses and a US-led coalition. In retaliation, Israel targeted and destroyed a crucial part of the S-300 air defense system at the Isfahan base.

This year's Tehran book fair has also been marked by its inclusion of the Yemeni Houthis as special guests. The Iran-backed militia, known for its recent attacks against Israeli and commercial targets in the Red Sea, was invited following the absence of Indian publishers, who were unable to attend due to travel restrictions imposed by the government.

The Tehran International Book Fair, a cultural event since its inception in 1987 under then-minister Mohammad Khatami, initially attracted 196 foreign and 200 domestic publishers.

Notable initial participants included major international publishers like Oxford, Penguin, and UNESCO but amid Iran’s ongoing policy of hostage diplomacy, human rights abuses and visa issues of the sanctioned nation, less and less participants now attend.

“[President] Biden and [US Secretary of State Antony] Blinken will not allow Iran to have a nuclear weapon,” State Department deputy spokesperson Vedant Patel said in a press briefing.

He made the remarks in reaction to Sunday comments by Kamal Kharrazi, a senior advisor to Iran’s ruler Ali Khamenei, that the Islamic Republic would be left with no option but to alter its nuclear doctrine if Israel threatened its nuclear facilities or its existence.

“We continue to assess, though, that Iran is not taking any key activities that would be necessary to produce a testable nuclear device,” Patel told Iran International correspondent Samira Gharaei.

Kharazi said on Sunday that Iran does "not possess nuclear weapons, and there is a fatwa from the leader regarding this matter. But what should you do if the enemy threatens you? You will inevitably have to make changes to your doctrine."

Asked if these comments were a concern for the United States, Patel said, “We don't believe that the Supreme Leader has yet made a decision to resume the (nuclear) weaponization program that we judge Iran suspended or stopped at the end of 2003.”

When asked about the Biden administration's strategy toward a "nuclear threshold state" like Iran in the absence of ongoing negotiations, Patel told Iran International, "We have ways of communicating with Iran when it's in our interest, I'm not going to comment on that."

In a Monday press conference in Tehran, Iran's foreign ministry spokesman suggested that Kharrazi's remarks were not the official position of the Islamic Republic, and that Tehran's nuclear doctrine has not changed.

"Iran's official position on Weapons of Mass Destruction has been repeatedly declared by high-ranking Iranian officials, and there has been no change in Iran's nuclear doctrine," Nasser Kanaani told reporters in a briefing held on the sidelines of Tehran International Book Fair, citing a fatwa by Ali Khamenei on the prohibition of the production and use of nuclear weapons as the basis for Iran's position.

However, the fatwa Iranian officials refer to is not an irrevocable principle. Islamic fatwas can change or be reversed at a moment’s notice, experts have pointed out. Also, the alleged Khamenei fatwa is not actually a religious order, it is part of a statement he submitted to an international conference more than a decade ago.

Khamenei may invoke the principle of expediency to overrule his “anti-Nuclear” fatwa. The principle of expediency, as decreed by the founder of the Islamic Republic Ayatollah Khomeini in January 1988, stipulates that the Supreme Leader may even violate the fundamental tenets of the Islamic faith in order to preserve “the Islamic Regime” as the preservation of the Islamic Regime supersedes all else.

Kharrazi on Sunday also raised the issue of Israel’s alleged nuclear arsenal and called for the Jewish state’s nuclear disarmament. “If Israel threatens other counties, they cannot remain silent,” he retorted.

Last week, Kharrazi had stated, “If they dare to strike Iran's nuclear facilities, our level of deterrence will change. We have experienced deterrence at the conventional level so far. If they intend to strike Iran's nuclear capabilities, naturally, it could lead to a change in Iran's nuclear doctrine.”

In recent weeks, Iran has evoked the option of using the nuclear option as a deterrent against the possibility of an Israeli strike against its atomic facilities, amid a new reality in the Middle East after the October 7 Hamas attack.

On Friday, Iranian lawmaker Ahmad Bakhshayesh Ardestani claimed Iran might already possess a nuclear weapon.

He conveyed to the Rouydad 24 website his belief that Iran's decision to risk attacking Israel in April stemmed from its possession of nuclear weapons.

Ali-Akbar Salehi, who was foreign minister more than a decade ago and is still a key foreign policy voice in the Iranian government, also said last month that Iran has everything it needed to build a nuclear bomb, as tensions rose with Israel amid the Gaza war.

In a televised interview in April, Salehi, was asked if Iran has achieved the capability of developing a nuclear bomb. Avoiding a direct answer he stated, "We have [crossed] all the thresholds of nuclear science and technology.”

Salehi’s statement was preceded by a declaration from a Revolutionary Guard general. In the midst of tensions between the Islamic Republic and Israel, Ahmad Haghtalab, the IRGC commander of the Guard for the Protection and Security of Nuclear Facilities, announced on April 19 that if Israel intends to "use the threat of attacking our nuclear facilities as a tool to pressure Iran, a revision of the nuclear doctrine and policies of the Islamic Republic of Iran and a shift from previously stated considerations is conceivable and likely."

Since early 2021, when the Biden administration opted for negotiations to restore the Obama-era JCPOA agreement, Iran has vastly expanded its uranium enrichment efforts and is now believed to have amassed enough fissile material for 3-5 nuclear warheads.

According to Ali Ziyai, head of the crime scene investigation unit at the Iranian Legal Medicine Organization, a total of 2,115 workers lost their lives, while an additional 27,000 sustained injuries as a result of work-related accidents during the last Iranian calendar year, spanning from March 2023 to March 2024.

Criticizing the Ministry of Labor for "statistical cover-up" on Monday state-affiliated ILNA news agency highlighted that this figure translates to an average of 5.79 worker fatalities per day throughout the year.

Ziyai told INLA that work-related fatalities "have increased by 11.3% compared to the previous year", adding that falling from heights consistently constitutes the largest portion of work accident fatalities.

He said, "Last year, 983 individuals lost their lives in workplace accidents due to falls from a height, comprising 46% of the total casualties.”

However, the numbers are likely far higher than reported by government affiliated sources. On International Labor Day last month, the HRANA Human Rights Organization reported that at least 9,879 workers lost their lives or sustained injuries over the past year in Iran from 1 May 2023 to 27 April.

According to HRANA, a minimum of 1,680 workers died due to work-related accidents. Out of these fatalities, 10 official sources documented 1,514 deaths, while independent organizations reported the remaining 166 fatalities.

According to the deal, signed on Monday, IPGL is allowed to manage the transit operation of Indian goods to Afghanistan and Central Asia at the port in Chabahar, on Iran's southeastern coast along the Gulf of Oman.

Sarbananda Sonowal, India's Minister of Ports and Shipping, visited Iran today to participate in the ceremony and discuss boosting relations.

Since 2016, IPGL has invested $85 million in Chabahar to develop the Iranian port, aiming to create a rival to the Chinese-funded Pakistani Gwadar and Karachi ports – and to expand trade with Central Asia and Afghanistan.

The Indian company was supposed to have invested $250 million in Chabahar by now, but the investment has been delayed due to financial obstacles and Iran's procrastination in developing the Chabahar-Zahedan railway.

This railway is crucial for connecting the port to the national railway network and facilitating the transit of Indian goods to target markets.

Under the new agreement, the investment value is expected to reach $370 million. This project obtained a US sanctions waiver in 2018.

"As and when a long-term arrangement is concluded, it will clear the pathway for bigger investments to be made in the port," Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar told reporters in Mumbai.

The Strategic Significance of Chabahar Port

Indian trade with Central Asia and Afghanistan remained unchanged at $2 billion during last year due to its dependence on Chinese and Pakistani territory to connect the target markets.

For comparison, Indian trade rival China had $90 billion trade turnover with Central Asian states, including Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan and Tajikistan in 2023 – which increased by 27% year-on-year, China Customs statistics indicate.

China also had $1.33 billion trade with Afghanistan last year, 40% more than India’s.

According to the International Monetary Fund, Central Asian states had $143 billion export and $95 billion import with foreign countries.

The Indian Commerce Ministry’s statistics show the mentioned states share only 0.5% of India’s total foreign trade.

India, Iran and Russia also signed a transit agreement in 2000, but neither India nor Russia transits good through Iranian territory due to its poor logistic infrastructures.

In terms of the logistics performance index (LPI), the World Bank has ranked Iran among the poorest countries.

Last year, the Islamic Republic ranked 123 of the 139 countries compared, marking the lowest score among all neighbors, except Afghanistan. Even Iraq outperformed Iran in terms of LPI, ranking 115 globally.

Given the current circumstances, while the transit of Indian goods through Iran to Russia seems unlikely, the Chabahar port holds significant potential for fostering trade between India and Central Asia or Afghanistan in the years ahead.

Last year, more than 4.2 million tons of goods were loaded or unloaded at Chabahar, sharing 2.2% of Iran’s total foreign trade volume. However, only 15,000 tons of goods were transit cargoes, corresponding to 0.1% of Iran’s total foreign cargo transits in 2023.

Therefore, almost all of the loaded or unloaded cargoes at Chabahar was related to Iran and India’s own trade.

India increased exports to Iran by 14% year-on-year to $1.66 billion in 2023, while its imports from Iran experienced a 45% growth to $672 million. Before US sanctions, India imported $11.1 billion and exported $2.65 billion goods to Iran in 2017.