Contradictory Reports Cloud Iran-Russia Strategic Deal

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei referred to the process as “determining a president” instead of electing one. While this might have been a natural slip of the tongue, many public speakers and social media users interpret it as a Freudian slip, suggesting that it reveals his true intentions.

There are also a few key narratives under the master narrative, including Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf being the next president of Iran regardless of who the people would prefer.

Another key narrative advanced by politicians like Heshmatollah Falahatpisheh, the former chief of the Iranian parliament's national security committee, is that the mere presence of the hardliner former nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili as a presidential candidate sends a clear message to the West: Iran is not interested in cooperating on its ambitious nuclear program, which some Western and many regional powers view as a regional and global security threat.

Another notable narrative is that the main competition in this election was initially between Jalili and Ghalibaf. However, the inclusion of a "reformist" candidate among the six approved by the Guardian Council has shifted the dynamics from a bipolar contest between the two conservatives to a triangular competition. The third contender is 'pro-reform' heart surgeon Massoud Pezeshkian, who has served multiple terms in parliament.

The master narrative doubts that any of the three—ultraconservative Jalili, neocon Ghalibaf, or pro-reform Pezeshkian—will secure half of the votes cast in the first round of the election on June 28. As a result, it is expected that two of them will face each other in a runoff election one week later, where the candidate with the most votes will become Iran's new President.

Another narrative suggests that the other three candidates—Martyrs Foundation head Amir Hossein Ghazizadeh Hashemi, Tehran Mayor Alireza Zakani, and former Justice Minister and intelligence operative Mostafa Pourmohammadi—are not serious contenders. Instead, they are believed to be supporting Ghalibaf against Pezeshkian and Jalili. In fact, the first two played a similar role in the 2021 election, protecting the intended winner, Ebrahim Raisi, against his rivals.

Meanwhile, prominent Iranian analyst Morad Veisi said in an analysis for Iran International that Pezeshkian is playing the same part that proreform Abdolnasser Hemmati played in the 2021 election. Although he ultimately received less than the number of invalid votes, his presence gave the government the cover to pretend that ‘reformists’ were represented in that election.

It is based on these narratives that seasoned commentators in Iran, such as Abbas Abdi, have said that "If the official assumption is that Pezeshkian has no chance to be elected president and his presence is meant only to boost the turnout, I suggest to get him out of the game immediately so that the errors made in 1997 and 2013 will not be repeated. "

Abdi was referring to fact that Mohammad Khatami's landslide victory in the 1997 and Hassan Rouhani's victory in the 2013 elections against key conservative figures came as surprise for Iranian hardliners including the Supreme Leader.

Abdi added that "The current election is most likely to end in the first round," meaning that Pezeshkian may win the election if disillusioned voters put their weight behind him. In that case, Abdi said, that those who endorsed Pezeshkian's credentials will be held accountable for the consequences of their decision.

Iran's last parliamentary and presidential elections in 2020, 2021, and 2024 have witnessed dwindling turnout. Segments of voters who have lost hope in elections as a means to improve their worsening economic situation could potentially give a 'reformist' candidate the edge needed to rise to the top.

Others in the expose include Mohsen Rezaei, a former IRGC commander with deep political ties, whose recent appearances suggest significant cosmetic alterations.

The revelation has sparked discussions about the hypocrisy and vanity of state figures who traditionally promote a facade of austerity and religious and moral purity to the public.

According to the International Society of Aesthetic Plastic Surgery, Iran ranked 12th highest for cosmetic surgery procedures as of 2022. That climbed from 18 in 2016, with 80 percent of patients women.

Rhinoplasty is the most common procedure, followed by liposuction, eyelid surgery, abdominoplasty and breast augmentation.

So common has the practice become that last year, interior minister Ahmad Vahidi said people who had radically changed their appearance through cosmetic procedures would need to apply for new ID documentation.

“The authentic Iranian face is being distorted through invasive procedures,” Babak Nikoumaram, chair of the Iranian Society of Plastic and Aesthetic Surgeons told the Financial Times earlier this year. “Incongruous western beauty standards are forced upon Iranians.”

The Swedish police have classified the threats as "serious and real," underscoring the dangerous conditions faced by those critical of the Iranian government, at home and abroad. 

It comes on the back of revelations last month of Iran recruiting Swedish gangs to carry out such plots abroad, including on Jewish and Israeli targets. Israeli intelligence agency, Mossad, also confirmed the reports saying Swedish gangs were part of a Europe-wide plot from Tehran against Israeli embassies. 

The threats against Iran International staff have become a recurrent issue, stemming back to 2022 when London's Metropolitan Police revealed plots against staff in London. Last year, the threats reached a climax with the UK's MI5 saying it could no longer protect the team, forcing a temporary relocation to the US.

Kazem Gharibabadi, head of the Iranian Judiciary's Human Rights Headquarters, recently branded the network as "terrorist" and directly threatened its staff. The statement followed shortly after condemnation from UN experts regarding the ongoing threats and acts of violence against Iran International's personnel, including a violent knife attack on presenter Pouria Zeraati.

The Swedish Ministry of Foreign Affairs has recently acknowledged that Iran's terror plots across Europe and its involvement with criminal networks in Sweden are “deeply concerning.”
"It is deeply concerning that a foreign power, in this case, Iran, has allegedly used criminal networks to commit or instigate crimes in Sweden. The Ministry for Foreign Affairs has summoned Iran’s chargé d’affaires to stress how seriously we are taking this information," the Swedish Ministry for Foreign Affairs’ Press Office told Iran International on Sunday.

Khezrnejad, a vocal critic of governmental policies, was initially detained on November 19, 2022, following his speech at a memorial for Asad Rahimi, a victim of the protests in Bukan, where he openly criticized the government's suppression of protests following the death in morality police custody of Mahsa Amini. The death of the Kurdish-Iranian was the trigger for the biggest anti-government uprising since the founding of the Islamic Republic.

The Urmia Revolutionary Court, after holding Khezrnejad in temporary custody for over a year, convicted him on December 20, 2023, for "corruption on earth," sentencing him to death. Additional charges included 15 years for "damaging the integrity or independence of the country," and one year for "propaganda against the system." The sentences were later affirmed by Branch 41 of the Supreme Court, presided over by Judge Ali Razini.

Mizan, Iran's judicial news agency, claims a displayed remorse and pledge for better conduct from Khezrnejad, alongside pleas from prominent Sunni scholars, led to the reduction of his sentence to life imprisonment. 

During his detention, reports from the Hengaw Human Rights Organization highlighted that Khezrnejad endured severe torture, resulting in coerced confessions. 

This judgment does not absolve the IRGC from responsibility in the downing of the aircraft. The Ontario Superior Court of Justice earlier labeled the missile strike by the IRGC as "terrorist activity" and dismissed claims by Iran that the downing was a mere "human error."

The judgement on Monday found, that despite the IRGC's deliberate firing of two missiles at the airliner, the company could not prove that it acted according to standards to cancel the flight amid potential military activities in the early hours of January 8, 2020.

“I declare that the defendant has failed to prove, on a balance of probabilities ... that the plaintiffs’ damage was not due to the negligence or other wrongful act or omission of the carrier or its servants or agents; or that such damage was solely due to the negligence or other wrongful act or omission of a third party,” said Justice Jasmine Akbarali on Monday.

Legal expert Paul Miller commented on the verdict, stating, "This verdict sends a strong message to international airlines that passenger safety must always be their top priority. Airlines must take proper measures to avoid operating in conflict zones.”

The judgment now means that under the Montreal Convention, UIA cannot limit compensation to $180,000 USD per passenger but must pay full compensatory damages for the fatalities, a small victory for the families of victims who are still seeking justice for Iran's act of shooting down the plane. 

Iran failed to close its airspace during the hours when it launched the attack and was expecting a US retaliation. Later, when it was proven the airliner was downed by two IRGC missiles, Iranian officials argued that it was human error due to the tense situation prevailing in the aftermath of the attack on US bases.

The incident claimed the lives of 176 people, including 63 Canadians, 10 Swedes, and 82 Iranians. Flight PS752 was hit by two IRGC air-defense missiles shortly after departing from Tehran's Imam Khomeini International Airport.

When it was proven the airliner was downed by two IRGC missiles, Iranian officials argued that it was human error. They have also prevented an independent investigation of the incident and disclosing full details. For three days after the incident, they hid the fact that the plane was shot down, insisting that the crash was an accident.