Iran International
As Iran’s low-turnout presidential election moves into a runoff set for July 5, three groups in Iran must make crucial decisions not only about the election but also about the country's future.
The three key groups are, in order of significance, the boycotters, the reformists, and the ultraconservative Paydari party members along with other like-minded hardliners.
At least 60 percent of eligible voters refused to go to the polls, leaving the race to one pro-reform candidate and five conservatives, two of whom withdrew before election day.
Until the final hours before the election, conservative figureheads and even top IRGC officers made extensive efforts to persuade either former nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili or Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf to withdraw, giving the other a better chance to win in the first round. Despite their efforts, the plan did not succeed.
Now, pro-reform Masoud Pezeshkian and Jalili are off to the runoff election for the final showdown on Friday. In the meantime, the three groups have to make tough decisions to shape the country's future.
The reformists need to put an end to their hesitations and stand firm in big numbers behind Pezeshkian to ensure a victory. At the same time, Paydari and other "revolutionary" hardliners will certainly do everything to support Jalili and enable him to form his ideal non-compromising, non-conformist hardheaded revolutionary government.
The boycotters need to reconsider their stance and decide whether to support a “moderate” who could perhaps marginally improve the country's situation and push back against power-hungry hardliners, or to leave it in the hands of ultraconservatives. The latter's economic and international policies are likely to negatively impact the country, potentially turning Iran into an "Islamic North Korea," as some critics have warned.
Hours after initial election results were out, Iranians started to voice their concerns. Siamak Ghassemi, an economic consultant in Tehran pointed out on multiple social media platforms that only 24 million out of the country's 61.5 million voters took part in the election which means a turnout of just under 40 percent based on unverifiable figures announced by the government.
He warned, "The message is clear. In one of the most competitive presidential elections, where both conservatives and reformists were represented, a 60-percent majority of Iranians chose to abstain. They do not care who occupies the President's Office or who will be in the runoff election. They do not care who will be the country's president." Ghassemi further cautioned the government, "Listen to the 60-percent majority!”
A deep economic crisis, partly triggered by US sanctions, worsening government repression, persistent news of corruption, and a host of other intractable issues have convinced many voters that it makes no difference who becomes president.
Meanwhile, a well-known reformist activist Sadeq Hosseini wrote: "Jalili would have been Iran's president now if we did not take part in the election even as much as we did. Just think of it that with this minimal participation we have stopped him so far."
While Ghalibaf left the race in silence with a temper tantrum after his defeat, another reformist figure, Nasser Torkan called on his voters to "lend their support to Pezeshkian in order to bring the country back on the right track of rationality to focus on the country's development and protect it from radicalism and backwardness."
Pessimists and boycotters, however, do not seem to be convinced that Pezeshkian is reformist enough. One of them said on a foreign-based satellite TV channel that preferring Pezeshkian to Jalili is like deciding whether to be taken to a detention center in a pink or a white Morality Police van.
Pezeshkian is leading with 10.4 million votes. Total votes cast is 24.53 million out of more than 61 million eligible voters.
He is followed by Saeed Jalili with almost 9.5 million votes, Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf with 3.4 million, and Mostafa Pourmohammadi with 206 thousand votes, according to official figures released by the Interior Ministry Saturday morning.
Voter turnout at around 40% is the lowest in the history of the Islamic Republic. Additionally, there are 1.05 million invalid votes. The majority of voters boycotted the election, snubbing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei who had call for a large turnout.
Throughout Friday, there were numerous reports of low turnout, even by journalists and politicians who were observing the polling stations. The 40% turnout is a total defeat for the Islamic Republic and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei who repeatedly urged people to vote, making the election a referendum on his regime's legitimacy.
In 2021, turnout was 48 percent, the lowest in any presidential elections, while the present 40% turnout marks an unprecedented trend in the Islamic Republic's history since 1979. The 2021 number included the highest-ever percent of void and blank votes at 13 percent of all ballots cast.
The polls were extended three times until midnight with the hope that more people would flock to vote. Traditionally, Iranian voters mostly go to polling stations in the evening hours and voting is usually extended beyond the official hours. But on Friday nothing helped to lift the mood of voters.
Since 2020, it has become clear that a majority of Iranians have lost faith in the government's ability to improve the economy and allow more social and political freedoms. Participation in both presidential and parliamentary elections has fallen below 50%, with many people doubting the official election results and suspecting that the government is exaggerating even the low turnout numbers.
On Friday, some political observers in Tehran were commenting that the government was struggling to bring the official number of votes up to 40%, as no one would have believed any higher number.
In a tweet following the extension of voting hours, former Foreign Minister Mohammad Zarif urged Iranians not to stay home. “Ignore the deceptive text messages and attempts to keep you at home,” he wrote, without explaining the origin or content of these messages.
Citizen reporters mentioned receiving a text message from the interior ministry in the afternoon, quoting Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who stated that their votes, regardless of the candidate, were votes for the Islamic Republic.
“The meaning of the text message is: Those of you who are hesitant whether to vote for Pezeshkian or not, stay home! Because your votes are votes for the Islamic Republic,” one of the tweets regarding the interior ministry’s text message said. “Our vote is not [for] a referendum. It’s voting for a normal life. This text message has hidden intentions,” another tweet said.
The daughter of Mousavi and Rahnavard, who have been under house arrest since 2011, announced on Friday that her parents would abstain from participating in the presidential election. Meanwhile, Karroubi was photographed casting his ballot, and his son had previously confirmed his endorsement of Pezeshkian.
The Green Movement sprang up in 2009, when in a dubious presidential election Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was unexpectedly was announced the winner, triggering protests. Mousavi and Karroubi who were running against Ahmadinejad were later put under house arrest after Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei denounced then as "seditionists."
This is while the relatively moderate Pezeshkian's candidacy is seen by many as an attempt to create an illusion of competition and boost historically low voter turnout, as witnessed in the 2023 parliamentary elections, where turnout hit a record low since 1979.
Iran's un-elected election watchdog, the Guardian Council allowed five conservative-hardliners and one reform-minded candidate to run. Two hardliners dropped out and four candidates remained.
Activists also announced that while authorities brought a ballot box to Ward 4 of Tehran's Evin prison, housing numerous political prisoners, the prisoners abstained from voting.
Many, including several students, women's and youth organizations, and civil and political activists, have called for boycotting the presidential election. Over 500 teachers, union activists, and cultural figures publicly declared their abstention. Also, notable figures such as imprisoned Nobel laureate Narges Mohammadi criticized the upcoming election, denouncing it as a facade orchestrated by an “oppressive regime.”
Friday's presidential election is the first after the "Woman, Life, Freedom" protests in 2022, which marked a significant demand for secular governance, human rights, women's rights, and rational foreign policies in Iran.
Last year, following the "Woman, Life, Freedom" movement that was triggered following the death of Mahsa Jina Amini while in the custody of the so-called morality police, Mousavi called for the end of clerical rule, which over 400 political activists and journalists supported. The state's subsequent killing of at least 550 protesters during its crackdown has been labeled a crime against humanity by a UN fact-finding mission.