Voter Turnout Plummets Across Iran's Restive Provinces

The three key groups are, in order of significance, the boycotters, the reformists, and the ultraconservative Paydari party members along with other like-minded hardliners.

At least 60 percent of eligible voters refused to go to the polls, leaving the race to one pro-reform candidate and five conservatives, two of whom withdrew before election day.

Until the final hours before the election, conservative figureheads and even top IRGC officers made extensive efforts to persuade either former nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili or Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf to withdraw, giving the other a better chance to win in the first round. Despite their efforts, the plan did not succeed.

Now, pro-reform Masoud Pezeshkian and Jalili are off to the runoff election for the final showdown on Friday. In the meantime, the three groups have to make tough decisions to shape the country's future.

The reformists need to put an end to their hesitations and stand firm in big numbers behind Pezeshkian to ensure a victory. At the same time, Paydari and other "revolutionary" hardliners will certainly do everything to support Jalili and enable him to form his ideal non-compromising, non-conformist hardheaded revolutionary government.

The boycotters need to reconsider their stance and decide whether to support a “moderate” who could perhaps marginally improve the country's situation and push back against power-hungry hardliners, or to leave it in the hands of ultraconservatives. The latter's economic and international policies are likely to negatively impact the country, potentially turning Iran into an "Islamic North Korea," as some critics have warned.

Hours after initial election results were out, Iranians started to voice their concerns. Siamak Ghassemi, an economic consultant in Tehran pointed out on multiple social media platforms that only 24 million out of the country's 61.5 million voters took part in the election which means a turnout of just under 40 percent based on unverifiable figures announced by the government.

He warned, "The message is clear. In one of the most competitive presidential elections, where both conservatives and reformists were represented, a 60-percent majority of Iranians chose to abstain. They do not care who occupies the President's Office or who will be in the runoff election. They do not care who will be the country's president." Ghassemi further cautioned the government, "Listen to the 60-percent majority!”

A deep economic crisis, partly triggered by US sanctions, worsening government repression, persistent news of corruption, and a host of other intractable issues have convinced many voters that it makes no difference who becomes president.

Meanwhile, a well-known reformist activist Sadeq Hosseini wrote: "Jalili would have been Iran's president now if we did not take part in the election even as much as we did. Just think of it that with this minimal participation we have stopped him so far."

While Ghalibaf left the race in silence with a temper tantrum after his defeat, another reformist figure, Nasser Torkan called on his voters to "lend their support to Pezeshkian in order to bring the country back on the right track of rationality to focus on the country's development and protect it from radicalism and backwardness."

Pessimists and boycotters, however, do not seem to be convinced that Pezeshkian is reformist enough. One of them said on a foreign-based satellite TV channel that preferring Pezeshkian to Jalili is like deciding whether to be taken to a detention center in a pink or a white Morality Police van.

"The resistance is so grand, beautiful, and captivating that its attractions have penetrated even into the universities of the US and into the cities of France, England, Germany, Spain, Australia, and everywhere," Hossein Salami said during a conference on "Resistance" in Mashhad on Saturday.

The "Resistance" generally refers to the Islamic Republic's ideology of fighting Israel and also the US through a coalition of Tehran-backed armed militant groups such as Hezbollah, Hamas, the Palestinian Islamic Jihad, the Houthis in Yemen, and various Iraqi Shiite militias.

Salami's remarks specifically point to the recent campus protests in the US and Europe by thousands of students who established encampments on campuses to decry Israel's military actions against the Iran-supported Hamas in Gaza.

Enraged by the Israeli military campaign in Gaza, students across the US have been organizing pro-Palestinian rallies and sit-ins to pressure their institutions to disclose and divest from funds and corporations that do business with Israel.

Triggered by a Hamas attack on October 7, which resulted in the deaths of 1,200 individuals, mostly civilians, Israel's subsequent military response reportedly led to the deaths of over 35,000 Palestinians, according to Hamas figures.

The protests in Western universities have been praised and politically leveraged by Iranian leaders, including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who has repeatedly lauded the students' efforts as aligning with Iran's resistance against American and Israeli policies.

In a recent speech, Khamenei branded the campus protesters part of Iran's 'resistance front' against the US and Israel.

The campus protests across the US featured on the cover pages of many Iranian dailies, triggering a considerable backlash from ordinary Iranians who view the stunt as ‘glaringly hypocritical’ from a ruling system that suspends, beats and imprisons students for much less than what students have been doing in the US in the past ten days.

The Islamic Republic has always presented itself as the only true champion of Palestinians and their cause. This sentiment has become much stronger and prevalent since October 7 when Hamas, backed by Iran, rampaged border areas inside Israel.

The irony, as ordinary Iranians have been pointing out on social media, is hard to miss. It is a case of 'astounding hypocrisy', many say, of a regime who cheers on American students exercising their freedom of expression, while its prisons are humorously called ‘universities’ for hosting sheer numbers of students, graduates, and educators who have dared to speak their mind.

On February 5 a number of the outlet’s journalists were arrested during a raid by security agents at their office in Tehran’s Argentina Square.

Security forces locked down and detained all 30 staff inside the building for 14 hours, confiscating their mobile phones and laptops.

Fardaye Eghtesad’s deputy editor-in-chief, Behzad Bahmannejad, a video journalist, Nikan Khabazi, and Ali Tasnimi were arrested according to Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA).

The Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ) condemned the raid and the arbitrary detention of Fardaye Eghtesad’s journalists urging Iran to “cease the practice of arbitrarily locking up members of the press.”

According to CPJ Bahmannejad, Asgari, Khabazi, and Tasnimi were detained for 4 days inside the outlet's newsroom. HRANA further reported the four journalists were transferred on February 9 to an undisclosed location.

On 21 February, the non-profit rights group Defense of the Free Flow of Information (DeFFI) reported that Bahmannejad and Asgari were released from Tehran’s Shahpoor Intelligence Detention Center while video journalists Tasnimi and Khabazi remained under temporary detention.

In a Saturday address, Khamenei described "the Defenders of the Holy Shrine" as young individuals from various nationalities who embody the Islamic Republic's worldview. The Islamic Republic authorities specifically use this term to refer to Tehran-backed militias deployed for more than a decade to fight for Syria's strongman Bashar al-Assad.

“The enemy intended to seize the region and simultaneously impose economic, political and ideological pressures on Iran to undermine the Islamic system when a group of devout youths, led by the Islamic Republic of Iran, foiled the arrogant powers’ plot,” Khamenei said in a meeting with the members of the International Congress of Martyrs of Resistance and Defenders of the Shrine.

In Iraq also, armed proxy forces established and supported by Iran are sometimes called defenders of the Shrine, perhaps referring to Islamic State attacks on Shiite holy sites.

Khamenei emphasized the significance of these groups portraying them as exemplars of Iran's strategic outlook and commitment to regional stability. In fact, these groups are used to pressure regional governments, secular forces, attacking Israel and US interests.

The involvement of Iranian forces in Syria, spearheaded by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Quds Force under Khamenei's direct command, commenced in response to the uprising against President Bashar al-Assad during the Arab Spring in 2011.

Initially positioned as support to prevent Assad's regime from collapsing under widespread protests, Iran's military intervention evolved into a sustained effort to bolster Damascus against opposition forces and extremist groups and also to enhance Tehran's strategic position for continued confrontation with Israel.

Iran’s intervention in Syria has drawn significant international criticism. Critics argue that Tehran’s support has prolonged the conflict, exacerbated regional instability, and contributed to substantial casualties and displacement. Hundreds of thousands of civilians have been killed in the conflict, with Iran, Russia and Assad forces using overwhelmingly destructive weapons against large cities such as Aleppo.

Moreover, the economic strain of maintaining military operations abroad has added to domestic discontent within Iran, particularly amidst ongoing economic challenges exacerbated by international sanctions.

A series of anti-government protests in Iran since 2017 have underscored public dissatisfaction with the government’s prioritization of regional military engagements over domestic economic needs. Demonstrators have voiced grievances against Iran’s extensive political and financial support for groups like Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, chanting slogans such as “Neither Gaza nor Lebanon, I’ll sacrifice my life for Iran.”

The latest presidential election in Iran, held amidst these tensions, saw voter turnout fall below 40%, signaling widespread disillusionment with the political establishment. Despite this, Khamenei did not mention voter participation in his speech, emphasizing the continuation of his strategic policies.

Additionally, despite Iran's substantial military and financial support to Syria, it appears that President Assad may be undermining Iranian interests, suggesting that his priorities lie elsewhere. Syria’s recent decision to re-engage with the Arab League after years of diplomatic estrangement has sparked concerns in Iran about diminishing influence over Assad’s regime.

Syria’s alignment with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) on regional issues, including the UAE’s dispute with Iran over three strategically located islands in the Persian Gulf, has underscored regional shifts potentially detrimental to Iranian interests.

The assault allegedly resulted in the deaths of two security force members, and injuries to several others, according to Iran's state news agency IRNA. Additionally, one of the assailants was also reportedly killed.

Early Saturday conflicting reports emerged from IRGC-affiliated Tasnim News agency, initially identifying the two deceased as ballot security officers but later describing them as border guards.

Quoting Iranian border police commander Brigadier General Ahmad Ali Goudarzi, IRGC-affiliated Tasnim News agency reported that one of the assailants was killed during an “armed conflict between the border guards and a terrorist group in the Jakigor border region, located in the Sistan and Baluchestan province.” Goudarzi further added that two others were injured and fled the scene of the conflict.

Iranian media identified the two killed Farhad Jalili and Ebrahim Marmazi.

Reacting to the news, Iranian Presidential candidate Masoud Pezeshkian referred to the two victims as members of Iran’s “police forces”.

“The news of the oppressed martyrdom of the zealous police forces of Rask city by the criminals, who were attacked in a cowardly way while protecting the people's votes, caused a lot of emotion and pain,” Pezeshkian wrote on X Saturday.

Former Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif responded to the incident, commending the two as "zealous men of the police force" and "martyrs who sacrificed their lives for Iran and protecting democracy."

“They did not allow the theft of the votes of the brave people of Sistan and Baluchistan and in this way, they reached a high level of martyrdom,” Zarif stated.