Inside the grim reality of Tehran’s rental market

Iran and the EU have clashed over a number of issues in the last few years, most notably Iran’s nuclear program and its poor record on human rights. In recent months, the relationship has deteriorated over the European’s ongoing deliberations on the possibility of adding Iran’s Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) to the EU’s terror list.

On Friday, a senior EU official told Wall Street Journal that the EU's High Representative for Foreign Affairs, Josep Borrell, will not attend the ceremony as the ties with Iran are "at the lowest point it has ever been." Instead, Borrell's deputy Enrique Mora will travel to Tehran.

This is not the first time Borrell sends his deputy to Iran. But many vocal critics of the EU policy on Iran view the 'downgrade' as insufficient and want to see a stronger message of disapproval sent to Iran.

"We are so ready for change at the highest and some lower levels," German member of the European Parliament Hannah Neumann posted on X, in a clear reference to Josep Borrell nearing the end of his term as EU's foreign affairs chief.

Another member of the European Parliament, Bart Groothuis, reposted the Wall Street Journal's story about Mora's upcoming trip to Iran, calling the decision "unacceptable."

The two-part ceremony is scheduled for July 28th and 30th. The president-elect will first seek the official seal of approval from the Supreme Leader before being sworn in at the parliament. Iran’s state media and officials tend to underline the attendance of foreign delegations in such ceremonies to counter the argument that the country is isolated.

In his election campaign last month, Pezeshkian promised to improve Iran’s diplomatic ties and even attempt to revive the 2015 nuclear deal that fell apart when the former US president Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew from it in 2018.

It is widely known that Iran’s foreign and defense policy is decided outside the president’s office. Still, some EU officials seem to be hopeful that Pezeshkian would leave his mark and soften Iran’s aggressive posture, especially with regards to its nuclear activities and the actions of its regional proxies.

In the Wall Street Journal report Friday, a senior EU official said Iran’s incoming president appears to be “quite reasonable”, adding that the inauguration of a 'reformist' president is an important event.

Iran’s president-elect has committed his administration to the pursuit of strategic plans set by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, which in recent years has seen Iran getting closer to Russia and China.

Beijing and Moscow "have consistently stood by us during challenging times,” Pezeshkian said last week in an English open letter titled A Message to the New World. He blamed the US and EU for inflicting “hundreds of billions of dollars in damage” to Iran’s economy, and “untold suffering, death and destruction on the Iranian people,” mainly through sanctions.

He added he looks forward “to engaging in constructive dialogue with European countries” while warning that they “should realize” that Iranians’ rights and dignity “can no longer be overlooked."

One person was killed and at least ten people injured in the drone attack, which happened around 3 a.m. local time Friday.

Evidence from the aftermath shows it was an Iranian-made drone Samad- 3 model sent by Houthi rebels that struck very close to the US consulate, which was the site of the former US Embassy in Tel Aviv.

Until Friday, Houthi drones or missiles directed at Israel had all been intercepted. Israel's military is investigating why it missed the drone. However, the Houthis have seriously disrupted international commercial shipping in the Red Sea by attacking cargo ships and tankers since November. The US and Britain have retaliated several times against Houthi military targets without deterring the Iran-backed militia ruling over more than half of Yemen.

Alex Selsky, an advisor to the Middle East Forum, said the explosion proves that this is not a war between Israel and Iran's proxies, but rather a broader conflict that is being fought in Israel. He said Israel is a symbol of the United States and the West in the Middle East, and pays a price for it.

"It proves again and again that it's not only about Gaza, it's not only about Lebanon, and it's not only about Israel. It's about the United States and the West. Because no such attack can be executed without minimum coordination, maximum instruction from Iran. And no such thing can be done without Iran being backed by its biggest allies: Russia and China," said Selsky.

Selsky, who was also a former advisor to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, said the timing of the attack and location are significant.

The strike happened just as former President Donald Trump, gave his keynote address at the fourth and final night of the Republican National Convention (RNC) Thursday evening in Milwaukee just five days after an assassination attempt that could have ended his life. Then the drone attack taking place near the US consulate in Tel Aviv.

Selsky said ultimately no one knows for sure if that was all intentional but when you connect the dots a pattern does appear.

Beni Sabti, an expert on Iran from the Israeli National Security and Strategy Institute (INSS) said the drone attack in Tel Aviv exposes a weakness in Israeli defensive strategy policy, that may embolden its adversaries if action isn't taken.

The cornerstone of Israel's national security strategy is its 'defensive strategy,' reflecting its preference to manage conflicts as much as possible.

"It's the time that Israel has to show itself and its capabilities and its quality," Sabti told Iran International.

He made an analogy to a soccer match, saying you can't always be on the defense when you're playing, you have to also attack to win the game.

"You cannot only defend. You have to go to the source to neutralize it, even if it's in Yemen. If you don't want to deal directly with Iran, then we need to deal with the shooter. If we don't go to the head, we have to deal with the fingers or the hands that are doing it," he said.

In April Iran launched a massive barrage of 350 missiles and drone at Israel. Israeli air defenses and allies warplanes shot down 99% of the projectiles, but it was the first time that the Islamic government in Iran dared to directly target Israel. There was a limited Israeli retaliation against one target in Iran and since then no escalation took place.

The IDF posted to X on Friday "regardless of who pulls the trigger, we know who is the loading the gun."

Israeli officials are hinting of a possible response on Yemeni territory with a retaliatory attack under consideration, according to the Jerusalem Post.

An official comment has not been made yet by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, but IDF Spokesperson Daniel Hagari posted to X addressing the latest attack.

“We are fighting a multi front war. Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the militias in Iraq and Syria, as well as the Houthis in Yemen, all the Iranian proxies, and Iran itself.”

A spokesperson for the Houthis, Yahya Saree, said they would continue to attack Israel, according to Reuters.

There are fears of wider regional conflict with Israel exchanging daily missiles and artillery fire from Hezbollah since the war in Gaza.

Iran’s nuclear program has been a major source of concern for the US for about two decades. The JCPOA deal in 2015 eased the tension momentarily, but it collapsed after Donald Trump withdrew the US from it in 2018 and Iran decided to escalate its uranium enrichment in retaliation.

“Instead of being at least a year away from having the breakout capacity of producing fissile material for a nuclear weapon, it is now probably one or two weeks away from doing that,” Blinked told the Aspen Security Forum, criticizing former president Trump for his decision to leave the 2015 deal.

The International Atomic Energy Agency, (IAEA) has become increasingly critical of Iran’s nuclear activities, which it says raises serious questions about the peacefulness of the program. According to the agency’s reports, Iran has stockpiled large amounts of highly enriched uranium that can only be explained as part of a weapons program.

Based on US intelligence, Iran has not yet made a weapon –a process that Blinken said could take much longer than a few weeks.

“When this administration came in, we tried to pursue, again, nuclear diplomacy with Iran, because if you could at least take one problem off the board, which is Iran potentially with a nuclear weapon, that’s inherently a good thing,” Blinken added. “We need to see if Iran is serious about engaging, [if it] is actually pulling back on the work that it’s been doing on his program.”

Unconfirmed reports suggest that backchannel talks between Tehran and Washington may be ongoing, especially following the election of Masoud Pezeshkian, which some in the US view as ‘reformist’ or ‘moderate’. But Blinken seemed to be pessimistic about the chances of a major shift in Iran’s nuclear or foreign policy, stressing that it’s still Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei who “calls the shots.”

Shortly after winning the election on July 5th, Iran's president-elect made clear that his administration would follow the lines set by Iran’s leader, blaming the US and EU for “untold suffering” inflicted on Iranians through sanctions.

"The United States needs to recognize the reality and understand, once and for all, that Iran does not—and will not—respond to pressure,” Pezeshkian wrote in an open letter published in English under the title A Message to the New World.

Singapore is Asia's biggest oil trading hub and the world's largest bunkering port. Its surrounding waters are vital trade waterways between Asia and Europe and the Middle East and among the busiest global sea lanes. Malaysian and Singaporean waters are also locations where illicit Iranian oil shipments are transferred ship to ship and then carried to China, the major buyer of sanctioned Iranian oil.

The Singapore-flagged tanker Hafnia Nile and the Sao Tome and Principe-flagged tanker Ceres I were about 55 km (34 miles) northeast of the Singaporean island of Pedra Branca on the eastern approach to the Singapore Straits, the Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore (MPA) said.

The 22 crew of the Hafnia Nile and the 40 on the Ceres I were all accounted for, the MPA said, which was alerted to the fire at 6:15 a.m. (2215 GMT)

The owner of Hafnia Nile confirmed the vessel was involved in a collision with Chinese owned Ceres I.

Photographs released by the Singapore Navy showed thick black smoke billowing from one tanker and crew being rescued from life rafts and flown to hospital.

The environmental authorities in neighboring Malaysia said they had been told to prepare for potential oil spills.

Norway’s Gard, one of Hafnia Nile’s insurers, told Reuters it was too early to assess the environmental impact.

Navigational traffic had not been affected, although the status of the vessels or any pollution was unknown at present, a spokesperson at the UN's International Maritime Organization (IMO) said.

"No aerial surveillance has been conducted so far," the spokesperson said.

"Salvage and fire-fighting assets have been arranged by both vessel owners to support the fire-fighting efforts and subsequent towage of the vessels to safety."

The IMO spokesperson said a salvage team had been appointed and was en route to the area.

The 74,000 deadweight-tons capacity panamax tanker Hafnia Nile was carrying about 300,000 barrels of naphtha, according to ship-tracking data from Kpler and LSEG.

The Ceres I is a very large crude carrier supertanker, which ship-tracking data last showed was carrying around 2 million barrels of Iranian crude.

"The Ceres I has been a boat that has gone dark many times over the years," said Matt Stanley, head of market engagement EMEA & APAC with Kpler, referring to when vessels switch off their AIS tracking transponders.

Stanley said the last AIS signal the vessel transmitted around March indicated it was carrying Iranian crude, which the US has tried to curtail, including imposing sanctions on ports, vessels and refineries involved in the trade.

"She was at anchorage (on Friday). We can be fairly sure that she was carrying Iranian crude and was going to China," Stanley said.

Shadow fleet risks

In May, Brian Nelson, US Treasury's undersecretary for terrorism and financial intelligence visited Singapore and Malaysia to advance its work in countering financing and revenue generation by Iran and its proxies. During the trip he said the United States saw Iran's capacity to move its oil as reliant on service providers based in Malaysia, with oil being transferred near Singapore.

Iran has increased it oil shimemts to China at least fivefold since early 2021, now selling around 1.5 million barrels a day. It is believed that the Biden administration relaxed US sanction enforcement on Iranian oil, hoping to reach agreement on curtailing Tehran’s nuclear program.

S&P Global said in an April report that China buys around 90% of Iran's crude exports, often at discounted prices.

The Ceres I has not moved since July 11, according to LSEG shipping data.

The area Ceres I is anchored in is known to be used by so-called dark fleet ships for the transfer of Iranian oil in contravention of US sanctions, said Michelle Wiese Bockmann, principal analyst at Lloyd's List Intelligence.

"The Ceres I has repeatedly been involved in transferring or shipping Iranian oil in breach of US sanctions," she said.

Shipping sources have said the tanker was also involved in transporting Venezuelan oil, which is also under US sanctions, to China in recent years.

The China-based owner of the Ceres I could not immediately be reached for comment. China has repeatedly said it is opposed to unilateral sanctions.

Up to 850 oil tankers are estimated to operate the shadow fleet transporting oil from countries such as Iran and Venezuela as well as Russia, which has multiple restrictions on its oil exports.

With reporting by Reuters

The former US national security adviser and long-time proponent of regime change in Iran told the ‘Eye for Iran’ podcast that despite the reported plot, there’s no indication Tehran had any involvement with Trump’s assassination attempt in Pennsylvania on Saturday.

Iran has vowed revenge for the killing of Qasem Soleimani, the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), who was killed in a US air strike in January 2020 on orders from then-President Trump.

Many of the Trump administration officials, as well as the former US president himself, were threatened by high ranking Iranian officials, including the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in January 2021.

Threats continued to come as late as February 2023, when Amir Ali Hajizadeh, the IRGC Aerospace Commander, appeared on Iranian TV to say, “God willing, we will kill Trump, Pompeo, [Frank] McKenzie, and the military commanders who ordered [Soleimani’s assassination].”

Bolton himself was the target of an assassination plot by Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, in a case detailed by the US Justice Department in Aug. 2022. As a result, Bolton, who also served as US ambassador to the United Nations, has Secret Service protection.

"We've known of the threat against President Trump... but this [plot] is surprising" Bolton told podcast host Negar Mojtahedi on Wednesday.

"This seems to be the first indication of the regime in Tehran actually taking some step toward going after Trump. And to do it in the middle of a presidential election campaign where Trump was at least competitive as they began planning a possible assassination, I do find surprising," Bolton added.

When asked about Iran's apparent silence to the news of Trump's attempted assassination, Bolton said it was "at least indirect confirmation" that Tehran was seeking to target the US president.

"Maybe the regime is trying to come up with creative new ways to go after its enemies... I think it's appropriate to take it seriously and it's potentially not simply a threat."