Iran International
Ayatollah Mohammad-Mehdi Mirbagheri who endorsed ultra-hardliner Saeed Jalili in Iran's recent snap elections has come under attack for his extreme views. Such attacks may relate to his alleged leadership ambitions.
The controversial cleric was little known to many ordinary Iranians before Jalili’s defeat in the elections. Since then, he and his views have come to be extensively condemned by opponents, or defended by followers who claim he is being ‘vilified’.
Mirbagheri is largely seen as the successor of the late Ayatollah Mohammad-Taghi Mesbah-Yazdi, the spiritual father of Iran's ultraconservatives, whom Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei held in very high esteem.
A mid-ranking cleric who has never held any government position, Mirbagheri has been a member of the Assembly of Experts since 2016. He also sits at the helm of the Academy of Islamic Sciences of Qom which defines its mission as the development and promotion of “Islamic sciences”.
As a member of the Assembly, Mirbagheri contends that the Assembly’s role must be “supporting” the Supreme Leader, not “supervising” him as the Constitution dictates. He has always strongly supported Khamenei as the absolute authority and the Supreme Islamic Jurist (Vali-ye Faghih).
Mirbagheri teaches that fighting “infidels” and overcoming them is a prerequisite for the “emergence” of the hidden Imam, Mahdi, who the Shiittes believe has been in occultation by divine for centuries.
Using an analogy with early Islamic history, Mirbagheri also argues that the legitimacy of the Islamic ruler does not depend on the votes of the people who may choose the authority of the wrong person. Critics say this is in contradiction with the views of the founder of the Islamic Republic, Ruhollah Khomeini, who famously said that “people’s votes are the true measure.”
In a speech to commemorate the late President Ebrahim Raisi last week, Mirbagheri quoted Khomeini, as saying decades ago that the establishment of a “new culture based on Islam in the world” would entail “hardship, martyrdom, and hunger” and that Iranian people had “voluntarily chosen” to take that path.
“Our people are prepared to move towards [such] ideals,” he said in his speech in which he also accused those in favor of negotiation with the West of seeking to “integrate” Iran in the current world order and weaken it like Japan and Germany” by “accepting disarmament”.
Mirbagheri supported Jalili in the 2013 presidential elections and Ebrahim Raisi in 2017 against moderate Hassan Rouhani. He also supported the populist Mahmoud Ahmadinejad but turned his back on him when he fell from Khamenei’s favor in 2011.
Between these two elections, he did not present a politically active image but has become very vocal in the past eighteen months and active on social media.
Mirbagheri’s views about the “world order” are similar to those of Alexander Dugin, the Russian ultranationalist philosopher, who has regularly been invited to visit Iran in recent years and met with Mirbagheri and other hardliners in Qom, the bastion of ultra-hardliners.
Opponents highlight Mirbagheri’s extreme views about women’s education “in the Western style”, hijab, social freedoms, his refutation of “Western sciences” as well as his advocacy of the “clash of civilizations”.
An article Wednesday by Mehrdad Khadir, deputy editor of the reformist Ham Mihan newspaper, suggested that Jalili’ defeat has saved Iranians from the danger of domination of Mirbagheri’s extreme views.
Some hardliners who now present Mirbagheri as a danger to the foundations of the Islamic Republic’s political and religious establishment allege that his supporters have plans to pitch him as the country’s future Supreme Leader. They also warn that under his leadership religious fundamentalism and extreme anti-Western views will prevail in the Islamic Republic.
Some others allege that Mirbagheri’s vilification is another “Khamenei gambit” meant to make him and his son Mojtaba look “moderate” in comparison and to eliminate him as a leadership contender and rival to Mojtaba.
Supporters of Parliament Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf blamed Jalili and his political sponsors, the ultra-hardliner Paydari (Steadfastness) Party and the recently established Jebhe-ye Sobh-e Iran (MASAF), for the defeat of the ‘revolutionary front’ in the elections. They were among the first to condemn Mirbagheri and his views on social media post elections.
Paydari and MASAF members often reiterate Mirbagheri’s apocalyptic, anti-western political, and anti-modernity views in their speeches and propaganda. Members of both groups have taken over many top and sensitive positions in the government in the past few years and formed a very influential minority in the parliament.
The declaration comes despite Iran possessing the world's second-largest proven gas reserves, amounting to approximately 29.6 trillion cubic meters, or 16% of the global total. The country’s resources, however, have not shielded it from a dire and ongoing energy crisis.
A nation rich in gas, yet starving for fuel
Owji's announcement on July 17 was made during a cabinet meeting chaired by Acting President Mohammad Mokhber, where he praised the late president Ebrahim Raisi’s efforts in securing the agreement. Raisi died in a helicopter crash on May 19.
The deal stipulates that Iran will receive 300 million cubic meters of Russian gas daily, with Russia also covering the construction costs of the necessary pipeline infrastructure, leveraging their technology for seabed pipelines. This is a gigantic amount of gas, which amounts to more than one-third of Iran's daily production.
Construction of pipelines able to handle such a volume of natural gas from Russian fields thousands of kilometers away would cost tens of billions of dollars, while Iran cannot afford to pay for such a huge amount of gas, with its hard currency revenues slashed by US oil sanctions. Currently there is no pipeline capacity to handle such a large volume of gas.
Despite the fanfare, the reality is stark. Iran's 23 gas refineries produce around 850 million cubic meters of sweet gas daily. However, the country grapples with gas shortages every winter and summer, forcing many industrial units, including gas power plants, to switch to Mazut—a low-quality, heavy oil notorious for its high pollution levels.
Iranian experts have long warned against the environmental and health hazards of using Mazut in place of natural gas to produce electricity. Yet, the severity of gas shortages during colder months has led to a disregard for such concerns, highlighting the government's failure to manage its vast natural resources effectively.
According to the International Energy Agency, gas accounted for about 71% of Iran’s energy supply in 2021, a 295% increase since 2000. Should this trend continue, experts warn that Iran may face chronic shortages in the coming years, further increasing its reliance on imports despite its abundant reserves.
The facade of energy diplomacy
Owji's portrayal of the Russian gas deal as an “economic and industrial revolution” is interpreted by many as misleading. The minister claimed that the agreement would not only stabilize Iran’s internal gas supply but also boost its gas export capacity and stability, involving financial exchanges worth $10 to $12 billion annually. He touted it as an “unprecedented achievement” in Iran's history, dubbing it a "masterpiece of the Raisi government's energy diplomacy."
Behind the facade: Struggles in joint fields and declining investment
In reality, Iran faces significant challenges in its 28 joint oil and gas fields with neighboring countries. It consistently lags behind its neighbors—such as Iraq, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia—in production due to a lack of investment. While these countries have ramped up their extraction efforts with the help of international, particularly Western, companies, Iran has seen its investment in upstream projects plummet. The Ministry of Oil relies on a meager 14.5% share of oil revenues for investments, amounting to just over $5 billion last year.
Statistics from the Parliament’s Research Center show a drastic decline in annual investment in Iran’s upstream oil and gas projects, from around $18 billion in the 1990s to about $7 billion in the early 2010s, and further dropping to $3 billion since 2017. International sanctions have crippled Iran’s ability to attract foreign investment or borrow funds, further exacerbating the situation.
A call for policy overhaul
The state of Iran’s energy sector underscores the urgent need for a major shift in the government's foreign policy. Without reaching an agreement with the West over its nuclear program, which is viewed as leading to weapons capability, and changing its hegemonial stance in the region, Iran's energy sector and broader economy will continue to flounder.
Owji’s celebration of the Russian gas deal as a "masterpiece" now is seen by observers as a thin veneer over the reality of Iran’s mismanagement and economic woes.