Iran could produce material for a nuclear bomb in a week or two if it decides to, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned Friday, reaffirming Washington’s stance against allowing Iran to build a nuclear weapon.
Iran’s nuclear program has been a major source of concern for the US for about two decades. The JCPOA deal in 2015 eased the tension momentarily, but it collapsed after Donald Trump withdrew the US from it in 2018 and Iran decided to escalate its uranium enrichment in retaliation.
“Instead of being at least a year away from having the breakout capacity of producing fissile material for a nuclear weapon, it is now probably one or two weeks away from doing that,” Blinked told the Aspen Security Forum, criticizing former president Trump for his decision to leave the 2015 deal.
The International Atomic Energy Agency, (IAEA) has become increasingly critical of Iran’s nuclear activities, which it says raises serious questions about the peacefulness of the program. According to the agency’s reports, Iran has stockpiled large amounts of highly enriched uranium that can only be explained as part of a weapons program.
Based on US intelligence, Iran has not yet made a weapon –a process that Blinken said could take much longer than a few weeks.
“When this administration came in, we tried to pursue, again, nuclear diplomacy with Iran, because if you could at least take one problem off the board, which is Iran potentially with a nuclear weapon, that’s inherently a good thing,” Blinken added. “We need to see if Iran is serious about engaging, [if it] is actually pulling back on the work that it’s been doing on his program.”
Unconfirmed reports suggest that backchannel talks between Tehran and Washington may be ongoing, especially following the election of Masoud Pezeshkian, which some in the US view as ‘reformist’ or ‘moderate’. But Blinken seemed to be pessimistic about the chances of a major shift in Iran’s nuclear or foreign policy, stressing that it’s still Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei who “calls the shots.”
Shortly after winning the election on July 5th, Iran's president-elect made clear that his administration would follow the lines set by Iran’s leader, blaming the US and EU for “untold suffering” inflicted on Iranians through sanctions.
"The United States needs to recognize the reality and understand, once and for all, that Iran does not—and will not—respond to pressure,” Pezeshkian wrote in an open letter published in English under the title A Message to the New World.
What happened globally?
A global IT outage hit various industries, including airlines, hospitals, retailers, and other businesses. Nearly 1,400 flights were canceled on Friday, and essential banking, healthcare, and retail services were also affected.
Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla and X, has described Friday’s incident as the "biggest IT failure in history."
What caused the crisis?
Two significant issues involving Microsoft's widely used cloud systems have occurred in quick succession. First, an outage affected Microsoft clients using the Azure cloud service. Second, Windows devices experienced problems shortly after due to an update from CrowdStrike's Falcon antivirus software, designed to protect against malicious attacks.
Microsoft said it has addressed the root cause, but some services still face residual issues. Despite the fix, cyber-security experts warn that restoring full functionality will require significant effort.
Why is Iran unaffected by this global crisis?
Iran is unaffected by the global IT outage mainly because it uses a different system to control, monitor, and analyze industrial devices and processes.
Iran relies on SCADA (Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition) systems, which are crucial for managing infrastructure like power grids, water treatment facilities, and the petroleum industry, Sahar Tahvili, an AI researcher, told Iran International.
What exactly is SCADA, and how does it differ from a cloud system?
SCADA focuses on the local, real-time control and monitoring of physical systems. It operates within a limited connectivity framework, typically confined to a local or regional network, processing data in a central computer system to manage and optimize operations. Tahvili, the co-author of “Artificial Intelligence Methods for Optimization of the Software Testing Process,” told Iran International.
Conversely, a cloud system emphasizes remote access, extensive data storage, and powerful computing capabilities over the Internet. It easily scales to handle large volumes of data and users, providing broad connectivity and resource flexibility that extends beyond the constraints of local networks.
But why is Iran using a different system?
According to Tahvili, Iran relies on SCADA systems for industrial and facility-based processes primarily due to international sanctions and the lack of advanced infrastructure and technology management options.
Do other countries utilize SCADA systems?
Other countries might use SCADA mostly for managing the manufacturing process but not as the main system for managing and monitoring their industrial and infrastructure processes.
Is SCADA a domestic system? If not, how can Iran utilize it despite sanctions?
The expert explained that SCADA is not Iran's invention. It consists of hardware and software components that can be sourced from various international suppliers. In response to sanctions, Iran might have developed its own SCADA systems or adapted existing ones to meet its needs.
“This involves using local expertise to design, manufacture, and maintain SCADA components. Iran might procure SCADA components and software through third-party suppliers from countries that do not adhere to the same sanctions or through indirect channels, making it possible to bypass certain restrictions,” according to the AI researcher.
Iran seems to have deftly navigated the recent global IT chaos, but what is the unseen factor at play here?
Iran's National Center for Cyberspace presented the situation positively, stating, "No damage or disruption in services to the public has been reported in Iran. Due to Western sanctions, Iran has been barred from receiving these services for years. Consequently, local, alternative services were developed by the country's youth and experts and are currently operational."
The statement further highlighted, "Additionally, the country has developed robust capabilities in providing indigenous cloud services, which are now ready for export to other countries. Iran is prepared to share its expertise and export products in this field."
However, Tahvili holds a different perspective.
She remarked, "SCADA systems are often considered outdated and face several challenges, particularly regarding integration and compatibility with newer technologies such as cloud computing." As industries increasingly move towards advanced data analytics and cloud-based solutions, "the compatibility of SCADA systems becomes a significant concern," Tahvili explained. This integration challenge can "lead to inefficiencies and limit the ability to leverage cutting-edge technological advancements fully."
She further highlighted that "the connectivity of SCADA systems to corporate networks and the internet introduces severe security vulnerabilities." While remote monitoring and control are essential, this connectivity "exposes SCADA systems to external threats, including cyber-attacks and malicious software like the Stuxnet worm." Referring to the infamous Stuxnet incident in 2010, Tahvili pointed out that it "specifically targeted SCADA systems and caused substantial damage to Iran's nuclear program."
Tahvili emphasized the critical need for robust cybersecurity measures, stating, "Several security breaches have highlighted the need to protect these critical infrastructures." Despite SCADA systems being essential for Iran's industrial processes due to sanctions and limited infrastructure, their "outdated nature and compatibility issues with new technologies pose significant challenges." Additionally, she warned that "the security vulnerabilities arising from their connectivity to broader networks underscore the urgent need for enhanced security protocols to safeguard against potential threats."
Saying this in an interview with Khabar Online website in Tehran Fereidoun Majlesi added: "We have had enough tensions. It is now time for peace." In another odd statement the former diplomat said that political parties do not determine American foreign policy, perhaps hinting that Washington’s position regarding Iran transcends Republican or Democratic administrations.
The centrist website noted that the United States currently shows little interest in political changes in Iran or nuclear negotiations with Iranian officials. At the same time, Iran's President-elect Masoud Pezeshkian, in his latest statements, welcomed negotiations with Europe but expressed no interest in talks with the United States.
The discussion about what will follow the recent presidential elections in Iran is a recurrent theme in Tehran’s government-controlled media, that mostly tries to highlight Pezeshkian’s positive statements about the need to have good relations with other countries. But media outlets rarely mention his back-and-forth messages of support for Iran’s militant proxy forces.
Highlighting that Iran has lagged behind in development for 45 years, Majlesi stated that Iran needs to reduce tensions with the United States and Israel and demonstrate goodwill to reach a compromise and normalize the situation. Additionally, Iran should accept international banking protocols and conduct transactions using US dollars to facilitate international trade.
However, no media outlet mentions that this requires a drastic change in foreign policy that only Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei can authorize.
Meanwhile, in an interview with the Iranian Labor News Agency (ILNA), international relations analyst Reza Nasri said that if the Pezeshkian administration is looking for economic development, it should first seek security and stability in the region.
Nasri added that like Saudi officials, Pezeshkian believes that regional countries should not waste their financial resources on attritional conflicts. Majlesi had also pointed out that so far, Iran has been wasting its resources in wars against other regional and Muslim countries.
Nasri explained that Pezeshkian's declared foreign policy is based on the three pillars of balanced relations with regional states, constructive interaction to facilitate development and adopting policies that would not be costly for the people's livelihood. He also pointed out that Tehran and the United States should conduct negotiations at one point as both are major players in the region and cannot ignore each other.
To this end, he said, Pezeshkian should put together an agile foreign policy team of pragmatic officials mindful of the fact that unpredictable situations might be awaiting us six months later. The new Iranian foreign policy team should be prepared to face any scenario, he added.
Nonetheless, speaking about the support Pezeshkian has expressed for the "axis of resistance," – or Iran’s proxies - Nasri said that a solid and strong diplomacy by Iran as well as international support for the Palestinian cause, could turn the resistance into a legitimate "liberation movement."
Meanwhile, former ambassador to the United Kingdom Mohammad Hossein Adeli told the press in Tehran that "Iran is playing a game at the edge of a cliff," and added that "those who still talk about circumventing the sanctions are in fact thinking of the continuation of sanctions." He was likely referring to influential insiders who are widely believed to be profiting from the US oil export and international banking sanctions.
Adeli warned that "The slightest error in foreign policy can drag Iran into an instability that might affect the country's existence." He urged Pezeshkian to adopt a realistic approach and carefully assess the regional and international situation.
Adeli further cautioned that regional developments could lead Iran into a war benefiting Israel and the United States. He stressed the need for Pezeshkian to assemble a foreign policy team capable of navigating and avoiding such dangerous scenarios.