Amnesty urges action for release of jailed Iranian rapper Toomaj

Some pundits interpret Pezeshkian’s much-publicized participation at these ceremonies, and his speeches in some instances, as an attempt to appeal to a broader population than those who voted for him in the recent snap elections, during which most famed and influential ‘eulogists’ (maddahs) publicly endorsed his rivals.

Ashura, the anniversary of the killing of Shias’ Imam Hussein 1,400 years ago, is one of the most significant dates on Iran’s religious and political calendar. Hussein, the son of Ali—the fourth Caliph after Prophet Muhammad—and himself a victim of assassination, was killed in a dispute over who should rule the expanding Arab empire. This event is central to Shia Islam, which primarily continues the power dispute from fourteen centuries ago.

Iran’s clerical regime is based on the religious ideology that regards Ali and Hussein as the rightful heirs to Muhammad and Islam. Therefore, religious symbolism plays a crucial role in the politics of the Islamic Republic. The Shiite rulers believe their legitimacy draws from Hussein’s killing on October 10, 680. They pay special attention to Ashura and other religious occasions to mobilize people and claim political support through various ceremonies.

Maddahs play an increasingly influential role in the regime's religious propaganda. They are laymen who perform eulogies of Shia imams, often accompanied by stirring music to attract younger audiences at religious gatherings. Since the 1990s, the status of maddahs in mourning ceremonies has significantly expanded, elevating their role to be on par with, if not more prominent than, that of clerics.

Some maddahs have also formed strong political alliances with rival politicians. They comment on political matters and disputes and together with their congregations often act as political pressure groups. Sitting next to a ceremony's maddah is usually interpreted as a political endorsement.

Some famous maddahs supported the ultra-hardliner Saeed Jalili in the recent snap elections while others rallied behind his more pragmatist rival Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf.

Maddahs and their profession enjoy Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s support. Some maddahs known for their highly aggressive political views often perform at his public mourning events.

The Jomhouri Eslami newspaper, a conservative daily run by a cleric in Tehran, described the increasing involvement of maddahs and their mourning groups in politics as "political games," a "bitter fact," and a "deadly disease" that cannot be ignored.

The paper argued in article on July 14 that endorsements by maddahs and their claims that “saving Islam depended on voting for one or another of the candidates” and that the victory of the rival could “obliterate religion” represent “a clear deviation” from the righteous path.

“Some of these people desire to appoint presidents and some others are seeking to turn the Islamic Republic into a ‘republic of maddahs’!” the newspaper which often voices the concerns of conservative clerics wrote.

Some well-known maddahs, such as Mansour Arzi and Mahmoud Karimi, have insulted and slandered high-ranking political figures, including presidents like Mohammad Khatami, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Akbar Hashemi-Rafsanjani, and Hassan Rouhani, in their highly politically charged eulogies. These maddahs have acted with immunity, especially when their actions were perceived as aligning with Khamenei's wishes. In fact, the rise of maddahs has coincided with the ascendancy of Khamenei in the past three decades.

Maddahs are often affiliated with one or more mourning groups (hey’at), which may be funded entirely or partially by donations from various sources, including mosques, neighborhood residents, clerics or groups of clerics, guilds, wealthy and influential business owners, government bodies, and municipalities.

The principal role of hey’ats is organizing gatherings to commemorate the martyrdom of Imam Hussein.

The ceremonies and processions take place mainly during the first ten days of the Islamic month of Muharram and on Arba’in (Arbaeen) that marks the fortieth day of the Imam’s martyrdom.

Hey’ats, which played a significant political role in Iran's Constitutional Revolution of 1901, the uprising that followed the arrest of Ruhollah Khomeini in 1963, as well as the Islamic Revolution of 1979 have also assumed the role of political pressure groups over the past three decades.

Some hey’ats and their maddahs are believed to be closely connected with the Revolutionary Guards’ (IRGC) militia force (Basij) and security forces.

There are at least 150,000 maddahs in Iran now some of whom receive “astronomical” sums as “gifts” for their much-advertised performances from hey’ats as well as benefits and healthcare services from government and state propaganda bodies.

Iran's ongoing housing crisis has seen a 70-square meter apartment in one of Tehran's cheapest neighborhoods, Berianak, now cost at least $460 a month, way beyond the average salary of around $240 a month.

To delve deeper into the issue, we investigated the cheapest districts in Tehran to examine the costs of a modest flat. Districts 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, and 20 in the southern capital are known as the cheapest areas for renting and buying houses.

Divar, a classified ads and e-commerce mobile app, is widely used in Iran to check real estate prices. Founded in 2012, Divar serves as an online platform for real estate, vehicles, goods, community services, industrial equipment, and jobs. Our research converted deposit amounts and monthly rents to US dollars for better reader understanding, using the day's exchange rate of 580,000 rials per dollar.

In Iran, the deposit is treated as part of the total rent. Paying a deposit of 1,000,000,000 rials ($1,700) upfront can reduce the monthly rent by 30,000,000 rials (over $50). Alternatively, depositing the same amount in a bank can yield a monthly return of 20,000,000 rials ($35).

A 50-square-meter apartment in Shahrak-e Valiasr in District 18 is offered for 125,000,000 rials per month, or about $215. This leaves an average income earner with only $25 for other expenses for a family to live on for a month.

A larger but older apartment is offered for 225,000,000 rials ($387) per month. This flat is nearly 20 years old but has been newly painted and refurbished.

In the southernmost neighborhoods, such as district 20, mostly the Rey region, a 40-square-meter flat is advertised for $205 per month. Another flat without a lift and parking space, located on the third floor and 15 years old, is offered for $230. The owner is willing to rent it to a single person, a rare option, especially for single women who often struggle to find suitable housing.

In districts 15, 16, 17, and 19, the monthly rent for a 50-square-meter apartment ranges from $200 to $400, depending on factors such as age, parking space, number of floors, and proximity to amenities like parks, schools, and the metro.

Empty promises from officials to reduce rent rates

On Wednesday, the Minister of Roads and Urban Development, Mehrdad Bazrpash, stated that “the cap on housing rent increases in the provinces was set at an average of 25%” for the current year (ending in March).

However, in reality, rents have increased by nearly 50% compared to the previous year according to the Vice President of the Real Estate Union, Davoud Beiginejad, citing data from the Central Bank and completed transactions.

This starkly contradicts all the promises the government has made regarding the reduction of housing rent.

Criticizing the policy announced by the minister, Namad-e Eqtesad, an economic website, wrote that mandated actions in the market are detrimental to both the market and tenants, such policies possibly leading to a decrease in the supply of rental housing.

"Currently, paying rent has become unaffordable for a large number of tenant households, and the fact that some groups are still managing to pay rent under the current conditions is nothing short of a miracle," the site noted.

Mahan, who married two years ago, works for a private company and told Iran International that his salary is about 170,000,000 rials ($295) monthly. He lives in a flat in Tehransar, southwest of Tehran.

His wife is a housewife, and he is the sole breadwinner. They have no children yet. He says he rented a flat for $150 right after marriage, but the landlord asked for $200 the following year and $300 this year to renew the contract.

"I am so desperate. I don’t know what to do. This means I have to pay more than my income for rent, and nothing will be left to live on. We are thinking of getting divorced and living with our parents," he added.

We also spoke with Mahdi, a worker at a furniture workshop in Mortezagerd near Tehran. He is a father of two and works 14 hours a day to make ends meet, but still struggles.

His wife runs an online clothing shop. Together, they earned almost $400 monthly last year, but with nearly 50% inflation and the rise of the US dollar against the rial, their income has dramatically dropped. Mahdi said he paid $200 for rent per month last year but now has to pay $300, which consumes all their income after the rial's depreciation.

Reza Gheibi, an economic journalist, told Iran International that the rise in the cost of land, labor, and construction materials amid heavy global sanctions on the country has all contributed to the increase in housing prices and rents.

He predicted this trend will continue as it began in February with the rise of the US dollar against the rial, and after a few months, its effect on the rent market became evident. "The coming months will see worse incidents, especially for tenants," he predicted.

Almost two thirds of Iran's population now live below the poverty line, with record unemployment and ongoing international sanctions which have seen even Iran's educated middle class thrust into poverty.

Iran and the EU have clashed over a number of issues in the last few years, most notably Iran’s nuclear program and its poor record on human rights. In recent months, the relationship has deteriorated over the European’s ongoing deliberations on the possibility of adding Iran’s Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) to the EU’s terror list.

On Friday, a senior EU official told Wall Street Journal that the EU's High Representative for Foreign Affairs, Josep Borrell, will not attend the ceremony as the ties with Iran are "at the lowest point it has ever been." Instead, Borrell's deputy Enrique Mora will travel to Tehran.

This is not the first time Borrell sends his deputy to Iran. But many vocal critics of the EU policy on Iran view the 'downgrade' as insufficient and want to see a stronger message of disapproval sent to Iran.

"We are so ready for change at the highest and some lower levels," German member of the European Parliament Hannah Neumann posted on X, in a clear reference to Josep Borrell nearing the end of his term as EU's foreign affairs chief.

Another member of the European Parliament, Bart Groothuis, reposted the Wall Street Journal's story about Mora's upcoming trip to Iran, calling the decision "unacceptable."

The two-part ceremony is scheduled for July 28th and 30th. The president-elect will first seek the official seal of approval from the Supreme Leader before being sworn in at the parliament. Iran’s state media and officials tend to underline the attendance of foreign delegations in such ceremonies to counter the argument that the country is isolated.

In his election campaign last month, Pezeshkian promised to improve Iran’s diplomatic ties and even attempt to revive the 2015 nuclear deal that fell apart when the former US president Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew from it in 2018.

It is widely known that Iran’s foreign and defense policy is decided outside the president’s office. Still, some EU officials seem to be hopeful that Pezeshkian would leave his mark and soften Iran’s aggressive posture, especially with regards to its nuclear activities and the actions of its regional proxies.

In the Wall Street Journal report Friday, a senior EU official said Iran’s incoming president appears to be “quite reasonable”, adding that the inauguration of a 'reformist' president is an important event.

Iran’s president-elect has committed his administration to the pursuit of strategic plans set by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, which in recent years has seen Iran getting closer to Russia and China.

Beijing and Moscow "have consistently stood by us during challenging times,” Pezeshkian said last week in an English open letter titled A Message to the New World. He blamed the US and EU for inflicting “hundreds of billions of dollars in damage” to Iran’s economy, and “untold suffering, death and destruction on the Iranian people,” mainly through sanctions.

He added he looks forward “to engaging in constructive dialogue with European countries” while warning that they “should realize” that Iranians’ rights and dignity “can no longer be overlooked."

One person was killed and at least ten people injured in the drone attack, which happened around 3 a.m. local time Friday.

Evidence from the aftermath shows it was an Iranian-made drone Samad- 3 model sent by Houthi rebels that struck very close to the US consulate, which was the site of the former US Embassy in Tel Aviv.

Until Friday, Houthi drones or missiles directed at Israel had all been intercepted. Israel's military is investigating why it missed the drone. However, the Houthis have seriously disrupted international commercial shipping in the Red Sea by attacking cargo ships and tankers since November. The US and Britain have retaliated several times against Houthi military targets without deterring the Iran-backed militia ruling over more than half of Yemen.

Alex Selsky, an advisor to the Middle East Forum, said the explosion proves that this is not a war between Israel and Iran's proxies, but rather a broader conflict that is being fought in Israel. He said Israel is a symbol of the United States and the West in the Middle East, and pays a price for it.

"It proves again and again that it's not only about Gaza, it's not only about Lebanon, and it's not only about Israel. It's about the United States and the West. Because no such attack can be executed without minimum coordination, maximum instruction from Iran. And no such thing can be done without Iran being backed by its biggest allies: Russia and China," said Selsky.

Selsky, who was also a former advisor to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, said the timing of the attack and location are significant.

The strike happened just as former President Donald Trump, gave his keynote address at the fourth and final night of the Republican National Convention (RNC) Thursday evening in Milwaukee just five days after an assassination attempt that could have ended his life. Then the drone attack taking place near the US consulate in Tel Aviv.

Selsky said ultimately no one knows for sure if that was all intentional but when you connect the dots a pattern does appear.

Beni Sabti, an expert on Iran from the Israeli National Security and Strategy Institute (INSS) said the drone attack in Tel Aviv exposes a weakness in Israeli defensive strategy policy, that may embolden its adversaries if action isn't taken.

The cornerstone of Israel's national security strategy is its 'defensive strategy,' reflecting its preference to manage conflicts as much as possible.

"It's the time that Israel has to show itself and its capabilities and its quality," Sabti told Iran International.

He made an analogy to a soccer match, saying you can't always be on the defense when you're playing, you have to also attack to win the game.

"You cannot only defend. You have to go to the source to neutralize it, even if it's in Yemen. If you don't want to deal directly with Iran, then we need to deal with the shooter. If we don't go to the head, we have to deal with the fingers or the hands that are doing it," he said.

In April Iran launched a massive barrage of 350 missiles and drone at Israel. Israeli air defenses and allies warplanes shot down 99% of the projectiles, but it was the first time that the Islamic government in Iran dared to directly target Israel. There was a limited Israeli retaliation against one target in Iran and since then no escalation took place.

The IDF posted to X on Friday "regardless of who pulls the trigger, we know who is the loading the gun."

Israeli officials are hinting of a possible response on Yemeni territory with a retaliatory attack under consideration, according to the Jerusalem Post.

An official comment has not been made yet by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, but IDF Spokesperson Daniel Hagari posted to X addressing the latest attack.

“We are fighting a multi front war. Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the militias in Iraq and Syria, as well as the Houthis in Yemen, all the Iranian proxies, and Iran itself.”

A spokesperson for the Houthis, Yahya Saree, said they would continue to attack Israel, according to Reuters.

There are fears of wider regional conflict with Israel exchanging daily missiles and artillery fire from Hezbollah since the war in Gaza.

Iran’s nuclear program has been a major source of concern for the US for about two decades. The JCPOA deal in 2015 eased the tension momentarily, but it collapsed after Donald Trump withdrew the US from it in 2018 and Iran decided to escalate its uranium enrichment in retaliation.

“Instead of being at least a year away from having the breakout capacity of producing fissile material for a nuclear weapon, it is now probably one or two weeks away from doing that,” Blinked told the Aspen Security Forum, criticizing former president Trump for his decision to leave the 2015 deal.

The International Atomic Energy Agency, (IAEA) has become increasingly critical of Iran’s nuclear activities, which it says raises serious questions about the peacefulness of the program. According to the agency’s reports, Iran has stockpiled large amounts of highly enriched uranium that can only be explained as part of a weapons program.

Based on US intelligence, Iran has not yet made a weapon –a process that Blinken said could take much longer than a few weeks.

“When this administration came in, we tried to pursue, again, nuclear diplomacy with Iran, because if you could at least take one problem off the board, which is Iran potentially with a nuclear weapon, that’s inherently a good thing,” Blinken added. “We need to see if Iran is serious about engaging, [if it] is actually pulling back on the work that it’s been doing on his program.”

Unconfirmed reports suggest that backchannel talks between Tehran and Washington may be ongoing, especially following the election of Masoud Pezeshkian, which some in the US view as ‘reformist’ or ‘moderate’. But Blinken seemed to be pessimistic about the chances of a major shift in Iran’s nuclear or foreign policy, stressing that it’s still Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei who “calls the shots.”

Shortly after winning the election on July 5th, Iran's president-elect made clear that his administration would follow the lines set by Iran’s leader, blaming the US and EU for “untold suffering” inflicted on Iranians through sanctions.

"The United States needs to recognize the reality and understand, once and for all, that Iran does not—and will not—respond to pressure,” Pezeshkian wrote in an open letter published in English under the title A Message to the New World.