Iran International
The rapid escalation of anti-Afghan sentiments in Iran in recent weeks and demands to expel millions of Afghans may be one of the most urgent problems facing the newly elected President Masoud Pezeshkian.
Some activists, politicians, and social media users in Iran warn that the unprecedented rise of such sentiments could entail serious violence against migrants and turn into a major security problem.
Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, one of the six candidates in the recent snap presidential elections, promised in his campaign speeches and debates to build walls along Iran's borders with Afghanistan and Pakistan to stop the influx of migrants and to expel “all illegal immigrants”.
Pezeshkian, too, promised that his future government would block the borders to end the influx of migrants, register those who are already in Iran, and negotiate with European countries to either accept some of them as refugees or pay Iran for some of the costs for hosting them.
He argued that the West had to accept responsibility for its actions in Afghanistan which he said had caused millions of Afghans to seek refuge in Iran. “There is no reason the Iranian people must pay the costs of the wrong policies of others,” he said in a series of tweets before the elections.
Ultra-hardliner Saeed Jalili who lost the runoff vote to Pezeshkian, however, avoided taking a clear stance on the matter. Jalili’s supporters accuse Ghalibaf and his supporters of inciting “Afghan phobia”. There have been allegations that some Afghans played an active role in Jalili’s campaign and promoted him on social media.
Jalili and other ultra-hardliners largely support the policies of the late President Ebrahim Raisi’s government which was accused of supporting an “open borders” policy with a hidden agenda.
They often highlight the role of the Afghan Hazara Fatemiyoun Brigade which was organized and trained by the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) to fight in Syria. There have been allegations that they want to bolster Iran’s military by recruiting more young Shiite Hazara Afghans.
Some critics allege that authorities under Raisi actively encouraged the growth of the Afghan population with incentives such as subsidized energy and food to remedy Iran's problem of population decline.
Those who demand the “expulsion” of Afghans accuse the government of letting them benefit from billions of dollars in food, fuel, and other subsidies. The influx of perhaps more than six million Afghans in the past three years has pushed up housing costs by increasing demand in the market, and taking jobs from Iranians.
There have also been widespread but unsubstantiated rumors that migrants are spreading various infectious diseases among Iranians including a claim refuted by health officials that leprosy is spreading in Iran due to Afghan migration.
Anti-Afghan sentiments are hugely promoted in Persian language social media with several dedicated hashtags including “Expulsion of Afghans is a national demand”.
Campaigners for the expulsion of Afghans who have also launched an online petition often highlight crimes allegedly committed by migrants including murder, rape, and child abduction.
Some campaigners for the expulsion of Afghans who also oppose the clerical rule in Iran are accused of expressing racist and ultra-nationalistic views on social media.
There have also been reports of indiscriminate aggressive behavior towards Afghans, irrespective of their residence status. There are also some reports of signs of “No Afghan entry” being displayed by real-estate agents.
A recent video clip on social media shows a young woman in a Tehran subway forcing an elderly Afghan woman to give up her seat, sparking widespread debate online.
Iranian media report that the Afghan population has overtaken Iranians in some deprived areas in and around the capital and other major cities as well as some smaller cities and towns.
Iran's Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) banned Afghans from living in 16 provinces in April 2023.
Afghans first came to Iran as refugees in the early 1980s and later as economic migrants, but their numbers rarely rose above two million before the Taliban takeover of the government in Afghanistan in 2021. Around 780,000 have refugee status and are not considered illegals.
The 2016 census found the presence of over 1.5 million Afghans in Iran. Officials admit that the number of Afghans has hugely increased since then. There are unsubstantiated claims that there may be as many as 15 million Afghans in Iran now.
The declaration comes despite Iran possessing the world's second-largest proven gas reserves, amounting to approximately 29.6 trillion cubic meters, or 16% of the global total. The country’s resources, however, have not shielded it from a dire and ongoing energy crisis.
A nation rich in gas, yet starving for fuel
Owji's announcement on July 17 was made during a cabinet meeting chaired by Acting President Mohammad Mokhber, where he praised the late president Ebrahim Raisi’s efforts in securing the agreement. Raisi died in a helicopter crash on May 19.
The deal stipulates that Iran will receive 300 million cubic meters of Russian gas daily, with Russia also covering the construction costs of the necessary pipeline infrastructure, leveraging their technology for seabed pipelines. This is a gigantic amount of gas, which amounts to more than one-third of Iran's daily production.
Construction of pipelines able to handle such a volume of natural gas from Russian fields thousands of kilometers away would cost tens of billions of dollars, while Iran cannot afford to pay for such a huge amount of gas, with its hard currency revenues slashed by US oil sanctions. Currently there is no pipeline capacity to handle such a large volume of gas.
Despite the fanfare, the reality is stark. Iran's 23 gas refineries produce around 850 million cubic meters of sweet gas daily. However, the country grapples with gas shortages every winter and summer, forcing many industrial units, including gas power plants, to switch to Mazut—a low-quality, heavy oil notorious for its high pollution levels.
Iranian experts have long warned against the environmental and health hazards of using Mazut in place of natural gas to produce electricity. Yet, the severity of gas shortages during colder months has led to a disregard for such concerns, highlighting the government's failure to manage its vast natural resources effectively.
According to the International Energy Agency, gas accounted for about 71% of Iran’s energy supply in 2021, a 295% increase since 2000. Should this trend continue, experts warn that Iran may face chronic shortages in the coming years, further increasing its reliance on imports despite its abundant reserves.
The facade of energy diplomacy
Owji's portrayal of the Russian gas deal as an “economic and industrial revolution” is interpreted by many as misleading. The minister claimed that the agreement would not only stabilize Iran’s internal gas supply but also boost its gas export capacity and stability, involving financial exchanges worth $10 to $12 billion annually. He touted it as an “unprecedented achievement” in Iran's history, dubbing it a "masterpiece of the Raisi government's energy diplomacy."
Behind the facade: Struggles in joint fields and declining investment
In reality, Iran faces significant challenges in its 28 joint oil and gas fields with neighboring countries. It consistently lags behind its neighbors—such as Iraq, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia—in production due to a lack of investment. While these countries have ramped up their extraction efforts with the help of international, particularly Western, companies, Iran has seen its investment in upstream projects plummet. The Ministry of Oil relies on a meager 14.5% share of oil revenues for investments, amounting to just over $5 billion last year.
Statistics from the Parliament’s Research Center show a drastic decline in annual investment in Iran’s upstream oil and gas projects, from around $18 billion in the 1990s to about $7 billion in the early 2010s, and further dropping to $3 billion since 2017. International sanctions have crippled Iran’s ability to attract foreign investment or borrow funds, further exacerbating the situation.
A call for policy overhaul
The state of Iran’s energy sector underscores the urgent need for a major shift in the government's foreign policy. Without reaching an agreement with the West over its nuclear program, which is viewed as leading to weapons capability, and changing its hegemonial stance in the region, Iran's energy sector and broader economy will continue to flounder.
Owji’s celebration of the Russian gas deal as a "masterpiece" now is seen by observers as a thin veneer over the reality of Iran’s mismanagement and economic woes.
"Some people protested and found fault with the Strategic Action law, which is absolutely unfounded. This law was very much the right thing to do," Ali Khamenei asserted on Sunday. He was referring to Iran’s "Strategic Action Plan to Lift Sanctions and Protect the Iranian Nation’s Interests," a law mandating the government to enhance its nuclear activities if the US does not lift sanctions.
Khamenei’s Sunday statements signal Tehran’s continued reluctance towards negotiating with Western powers as Iran continues to find ways to evade global sanctions.
Previously, former Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, speaking at an election round table on June 18, noted that both Israel and the Parliament's strategic law were significant factors preventing US President Joe Biden from returning to the JCPOA.
The 2020 legislation was initiated in November after the election of Joe Biden, who had already pledged to return to the JCPOA during his election campaign. Iran devised the legislation apparently as a pressure lever against the United States, because it mandated a higher level of uranium enrichment and less inspections by the UN nuclear watchdog, IAEA, as negotiations were about to begin in 2021.
The JCPOA, originally established in 2015, aimed to limit Iran's nuclear program in exchange for relief from economic sanctions. However, after the United States withdrew from the agreement in 2018 under former President Donald Trump, Iran gradually reduced its compliance with the deal, but never violated it in a major way until Biden's election.
Efforts to revive the JCPOA have faced significant obstacles despite the Biden administration's willingness to return to the deal as he pledged during his 2020 presidential campaign.
More recently the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has criticized Iran’s nuclear activities, raising concerns about the program's peacefulness. The IAEA reported that Iran has stockpiled large amounts of highly enriched uranium, with Raphael Grossi saying that Iran is "weeks not months" from a nuclear weapon.
Khamenei further elaborated on the role of Iranian parliamentarians in bypassing sanctions imposed on Iran by Western countries.
"Parliament can play a role in both lifting and neutralizing sanctions… neutralizing sanctions is more important than lifting sanctions… lifting the sanctions is not in your hands, but it is in your hands to neutralize such measures, and there are good ways to neutralize the sanctions,” Khamenei stated.
The Sunday session was also attended by President-elect Masoud Pezeshkian. Although Pezeshkian has pledged to work towards lifting US sanctions during his recent presidential election campaign, he has emphasized he would follow Khamenei’s policies.
Despite sanctions for not only the nuclear program but for supporting Russia's war on Ukraine and rights abuses at home, Iran's oil exports have significantly increased. They have risen from 400,000 barrels per day after the 2019 US sanctions to over 1.5 million barrels per day currently.
Iran has employed numerous mechanisms through a wide range of entities and organizations to sell its oil via third parties to evade sanctions.