Zarif reiterates Khamenei's stance on Iran's nuclear law

At 81, President Biden is under mounting pressure from his own party to step aside following a poor debate against Republican nominee Donald Trump, which sparked concerns about his age and viability ahead of the November election.

In response, Biden has defiantly countered these calls, insisting he remains the preferred candidate among Democratic voters. As recently as Wednesday, he affirmed his commitment to the 2024 race, stating, "I am all in."

Joe Biden’s approach, often labeled as lenient by critics, has been under fire for some time, but now, with elections looming, the criticism has reached a fever pitch.

Recent developments have brought the issue to the forefront, making it more relevant than ever for US politicians and Iranians as well.

Early Friday morning, an Iranian-made drone launched by Yemen’s Houthi rebels detonated in Tel Aviv, claiming the life of one person near a US embassy branch. The incident, the first Israeli casualty amidst a spate of Houthi drone attacks on Israel in recent months, has US lawmakers clamoring for the State Department to reclassify the Iran-backed militant group as a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO). This label would pave the way for more robust US sanctions and targeting.

Ritchie Torres (D-NY) took to X to voice his critique, stating: “The message of the Houthis, an Iranian proxy armed with Iranian drones, couldn’t be clearer: ‘Death to America. Death to Israel. Curse upon the Jews.’ The time has come for the US State Department to designate the Houthis as a ‘Foreign Terrorist Organization.’”

Congressman Mike Lawler (R-NY) expressed his dismay on X: “This latest Iran-backed Houthi drone attack against civilians in Tel Aviv is shocking. Iran and the Houthis must be held accountable.”

The sentiment was also echoed by Rep. Randy Feenstra (R-Iowa), who strongly condemned the attack on Israel by the Houthis, describing them as terrorists funded by Iran with no regard for human life.

President Trump had placed the Houthis on the FTO list. Still, President Biden quickly reversed this decision, arguing that branding the Houthis as terrorists would throw a wrench in the delivery of crucial humanitarian aid to Yemenis in desperate need.

Another development fanning the flames of criticism on Friday came straight from the Biden administration's admissions. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken issued a stark warning, stating that Iran could produce material for a nuclear bomb in a mere week or two if it chose to do so. This statement only intensified the scrutiny of Biden's Iran policy.

Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) attributed this escalation to what she described as President Joe Biden’s “failed leadership,” arguing that it has encouraged US enemies. "We must return to President Trump’s peace through strength strategy," she asserted, advocating for a more assertive approach.

Senator Ted Budd (R-NC) criticized the Biden-Harris administration's approach, attributing Iran's proximity to obtaining nuclear weapon material—just one to two weeks away—to what he described as their "weakness and appeasement." Budd emphasized the need to "return to a policy of maximum pressure" to address the escalating threat.

Another wave of criticism erupted last week during the Republican National Convention from July 15-18, where prominent speakers lambasted President Joe Biden’s Middle East policies. Accusations of appeasement and "putting America last" echoed through the convention hall as Republican members of Congress, along with several former officials and diplomats, took aim at the Biden's Iran policy. They argued that the Democrats’ policies since 2021 have not only made the US unsafe but also weakened its standing on the global stage.

Additionally, the US presidential candidates' tone during the campaign plays a pivotal role in shaping this narrative.

During the final leg of his presidential campaign in 2020, Joe Biden pledged to revive the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Critics argue that this stance emboldened Iran, prompting it to adopt a stricter negotiating position and accelerate its uranium enrichment, believing it had gained a strategic advantage. Consequently, negotiations stalled as Iran's expectations soared, leading to an impasse in diplomatic efforts.

This is something the Biden administration has acknowledged. In a 2022 interview with Foreign Policy, former US Special Envoy for Iran Robert Malley admitted that the US and Iran came very close to reviving the 2015 nuclear deal multiple times. However, Iran stepped back each time, introducing new demands often unrelated to the nuclear negotiations, leading to repeated setbacks in reaching a final agreement.

The Biden administration released $16 billion in frozen funds to Iran for reported humanitarian purposes such as food and medicine. Critics, however, argue that this move indirectly bolsters Iran's military and proxy activities by freeing up other resources.

Critics contend that the administration’s lax enforcement of sanctions has allowed Iran's oil sales to skyrocket. Since Biden took office, Iran's oil exports have surged from around 300,000 barrels to 1.5 million barrels per day, primarily driven by increased sales to China. This surge has generated approximately $80 billion for Iran, providing significant financial resources to support its military and proxy groups across the Middle East, including Hamas and Hezbollah.

Iran’s nuclear program has been a major source of concern for the US for about two decades. The JCPOA deal in 2015 eased the tension momentarily, but it collapsed after Donald Trump withdrew the US from it in 2018 and Iran decided to escalate its uranium enrichment in retaliation.

“Instead of being at least a year away from having the breakout capacity of producing fissile material for a nuclear weapon, it is now probably one or two weeks away from doing that,” Blinked told the Aspen Security Forum, criticizing former president Trump for his decision to leave the 2015 deal.

The International Atomic Energy Agency, (IAEA) has become increasingly critical of Iran’s nuclear activities, which it says raises serious questions about the peacefulness of the program. According to the agency’s reports, Iran has stockpiled large amounts of highly enriched uranium that can only be explained as part of a weapons program.

Based on US intelligence, Iran has not yet made a weapon –a process that Blinken said could take much longer than a few weeks.

“When this administration came in, we tried to pursue, again, nuclear diplomacy with Iran, because if you could at least take one problem off the board, which is Iran potentially with a nuclear weapon, that’s inherently a good thing,” Blinken added. “We need to see if Iran is serious about engaging, [if it] is actually pulling back on the work that it’s been doing on his program.”

Unconfirmed reports suggest that backchannel talks between Tehran and Washington may be ongoing, especially following the election of Masoud Pezeshkian, which some in the US view as ‘reformist’ or ‘moderate’. But Blinken seemed to be pessimistic about the chances of a major shift in Iran’s nuclear or foreign policy, stressing that it’s still Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei who “calls the shots.”

Shortly after winning the election on July 5th, Iran's president-elect made clear that his administration would follow the lines set by Iran’s leader, blaming the US and EU for “untold suffering” inflicted on Iranians through sanctions.

"The United States needs to recognize the reality and understand, once and for all, that Iran does not—and will not—respond to pressure,” Pezeshkian wrote in an open letter published in English under the title A Message to the New World.

In an exclusive report Wednesday, Axios quoted three American and Israeli officials as saying their intelligence communities have been trying to ascertain if there is a change of policy by Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, believing that he may have refrained from publicly approving the activity “to leave room for plausible deniability.”

Iran maintains that its nuclear program is peaceful, and all accusations otherwise are politically motivated. The UN nuclear watchdog, however, has repeatedly said that Iran’s enrichment program, and its stockpiling of near-weapons-grade uranium is hard to explain outside a weapons program.

The US officials speaking to Axios have expressed concern about Iran's nuclear “escalation”, while suggesting that there are no current indications of Iran undertaking the activities necessary to produce a testable nuclear device.

Last week, Iran’s president-elect Masoud Pezeshkian claimed in an open letter written in English that his country had been treated “unfairly” by the US and its western allies, accusing them of “abusing” the NPT and “fabricating” a crisis over Iran’s nuclear activity.

“The US and its Western allies not only missed a historic opportunity to reduce and manage tensions in the region and the world, but also seriously undermined the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) by showing that the costs of adhering to the tenets of the non-proliferation regime could outweigh the benefits it may offer,” Pezeshkian wrote.

Pezeshkian, elected on a ‘reformist’ ticket, is viewed by many inside and outside Iran as “powerless” when it comes to issues of foreign policy, defense and the nuclear program.

The Axios report Wednesday seems to suggest that backchannel communications have been ongoing and that the Biden administration has been trying to dissuade Iranians from further escalation of their nuclear activities.

The recent meeting of the US-Israel Strategic Consultative Group marked the first high-level discussion about Iran's nuclear program since March 2023. The assessments were aligned, according to reports, indicating no “top-down directive from Khamenei” to proceed with nuclear weapon production.

All US administrations in the past two decades have warned Iran that weaponization is a red line, and the US would consider all options to stop it.

Ali Bagheri-Kani's remarks come as he prepares to address the United Nations Security Council in New York on issues not directly related to Iran.

The United States under President Donald Trump withdrew from in 2018 from the nuclear accord between Iran and six world powers which restricted Tehran's nuclear program.

Indirect talks between the US and Tehran to revive the deal during the Biden administration have stalled. Iran is still part of the agreement but it has decreased its commitments due to US sanctions imposed on it.

Newsweek said: "On the foreign policy front, he (Bagheri Kani) said that Tehran remained open to resuming negotiations with Washington toward restoring mutual participation in a nuclear deal."

However, Iran also intended to foster its deepening ties with China, Russia and neighboring nations, it quoted him as saying. Iran will also call for greater action against Israel in view of the Gaza war, he said.

The Biden administration said last week the United States was not ready to resume nuclear talks with Iran under its new president. With the election of Masoud Pezeshkian earlier in July, some speculated that Tehran intended to hold more serious talks with Washington, but so far the new president has signaled the continuation of Iran's regional policies of projecting power.

Bagheri-Kani became the acting foreign minister after foreign minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian died in a helicopter crash along with Iran's president Ebrahim Raisi in May. Some interpreted his decision to travel to New York to attend the Security Council meeting as a possible attempt to pursue the issue of more talks. Iran is not a member of the Council at the present time.

Masoud Pezeshkian was then elected as president in a snap election. During his campaign he said he will promote a pragmatic foreign policy and ease tensions with the powers involved in the 2015 nuclear pact. However, after his election he exchanged messages with Iran's militant proxy forces across the region, re-affirming Tehran's support for their anti-Israel and anti-West stance.

He has so far been mostly silent on the nuclear issue. Iran has enriched enough uranium to be able to produce at least three bombs.

Asked about Iran's ability to make nuclear weapons and if the country may change its decision to develop them, he reiterated that Iran is an "accountable and responsible" member of the International Atomic Energy Agency and signatory to the NPT [Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons].

"Iran will make use of all its potentials and capacities within the framework of the NPT and the Safeguards Agreement in order to expand its peaceful nuclear activities according to its national plans and programs," he added.

With reporting by Reuters

Earlier in the day, Iran's acting foreign minister Ali Bagheri Kani said nuclear talks with the US are ongoing through indirect negotiations mediated by Oman.

However, White House national security communications advisor John Kirby categorically denied Bagheri's remarks and said, "No active negotiations are going on right now with respect to Iran's nuclear ambitions."

"I won't speak or can't speak to channels of communication with Iran one way or the other, but there are no active negotiations going on to restore the nuclear deal," Kirby told Iran International's Samira Gharaei on the sidelines of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)'s summit in Washington DC.

Kirby said "the reason for that is because Iran was killing its own people in protests activity. Iran was continuing to spin centrifuges. Iran was continuing to support terrorist groups. And in the early stages of the negotiations, Iran was making unnecessary demands that made it impossible for us to do that. They weren't negotiating in good faith."

The White House national security spokesman reiterated the US president's commitment to making sure Tehran would never develop nuclear weapons, and said, "We'd love to be able to do that through diplomacy. But right now, there's not a path, a diplomatic path ahead of us."

Earlier in the day, US Senator James Lankford (R-OK) told Iran International's Arash Alaei that Washington had not engaged in direct negotiations with Tehran for a long time for a “good reason," pointing out to the oppressive nature of the Iranian government.

He referred to reports by the UN’s nuclear watchdog on Iran’s nuclear activities, saying, “The administration told us they are not engaged in (talks with) them. But obviously the IAEA has told us there is a lot of nuclear development that’s happening there and a lot of things they’re not able to see but what they are able to see and detect has pretty dramatic increases.”

The US senator's comments came after Bagheri Kani said on state TV that details of ongoing negotiations might be kept secret due to their sensitive nature.

“Given the confidential nature of these negotiations, the specific components may not be fully disclosed. However, I can emphasize that the trajectory of lifting sanctions is decidedly progressive,” Bagheri Kani said during a special news program.

The current administration is trying to "achieve significant progress before the incoming government takes office,” Bagheri Kani added, referring to the new president, Masoud Pezeshkian.

Kirby had stated on Monday that the US is not willing to resume nuclear talks with the new Iranian president, citing Tehran's policy of supporting terrorism as a significant obstacle.

Asked whether the election will change the US negotiating position, Kirby simply answered, "no".

According to Bagheri Kani, negotiations with the West have been "intensive" over the past three years, with a notable "pause" in February 2022 which he attributed to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Since then, Iran has exceeded uranium enrichment limits and is now "weeks not months" away from a nuclear weapon, according to the UN's nuclear chief.

During his election campaign, Iran's next president spoke of promoting constructive talks with Western powers to revive the 2015 nuclear deal (JCPOA) and to lift the sanctions that have crippled the Iranian economy since the withdrawal of the US from the agreement in 2018.

However, with Iran's Supreme Leader holding the keys to the country's foreign policy, it is unlikely the new figurehead will be able to truly change course while Iran's proxies wreaking havoc across the Middle East.