In a vague statement on Sunday, Iran denied any role in a rocket attack that killed 12 children and teenagers on a soccer field in a Druze village in Golan Heights, which Israel says was carried out by Tehran-backed Hezbollah.
Israeli military spokesman Daniel Hagari said on Saturday the rocket used in the deadly attack was an Iranian-made Falaq-1 fired by Hezbollah.
Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanaani dismissed the accusations on Sunday, stating, "Israel's statements will not be heeded by others." However, Kanaani did not make it clear whether he means no Iranian rocket was used in the attack or the Iranian proxy group did not fire any munition at the civilian target.
Israel has vowed to respond to the suspected Hezbollah attack, with the country's national broadcaster Kann News citing officials as saying that the Israeli response to the attack "might lead to several days of intense fighting."
The attack has also sparked widespread reactions across the world.
The White House condemned the attack and blamed Hezbollah for it, saying, "It was their rocket, and launched from an area they control." It added that Washington has been in discussions with Israeli and Lebanese officials since Saturday's attack, which it described as "horrific."
US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken also said that all signs point to Hezbollah's involvement, emphasizing Israel’s right to self-defense while stating that the United States does not seek an escalation of regional conflicts. At a press conference in Tokyo, Blinken expressed condolences for the loss of life and reiterated the US stance against terrorism.
“There is no justification for terrorism, period, and every indication is that indeed the rockets were from or the rocket was from Hezbollah. We stand by Israel’s right to defend its citizens from terrorist attacks,” he added.
The Saturday attack has left the community of Majdal Shams in deep mourning. Thousands gathered for the funeral of the victims, marking a day of profound sorrow. At the funeral on Sunday, weeping men wearing traditional, red-topped white hats carried 10 white-covered caskets through the crowded streets. Women dressed in black abaya robes cried as they laid flowers on the caskets, with some mourners carrying large photos of the deceased children.
Fadi Mahmud, a 48-year-old resident, in an interview with AFP described the incident as a significant loss for the close-knit community. "It was the first time Majdal Shams had experienced such a loss during the war." "Our community is very close-knit. These children are like children of everybody in the village."
In the early 1980s, Iran established Hezbollah in Lebanon as a proxy force to confront Israel. In 2018, the US government reported that Iran annually provides Hezbollah with an estimated $700 million. Earlier, in a 2016 speech, Hezbollah's leader, Hassan Nasrallah, publicly stated that Iran is the source of his organization’s funding. The financial support bolsters Hezbollah’s substantial military capabilities, including an arsenal of roughly 150,000 missiles and rockets targeted at Israel.
Full-blown Israel-Hezbollah war
The deadly attack blamed on Hezbollah has stoked fears of a full-fledged war between Israel and the Lebanese group, with Lebanon's Middle East Airlines delaying some of its Beirut flight arrivals, and several European countries advising citizens to leave Lebanon.
However, Mohammad Ghaedi, a lecturer in international relations at George Washington University, believes a full-scale war between Israel and Hezbollah is unlikely due to the prohibitive cost.
“Despite the threats being made, my analysis is that we are far from a full-scale war between Israel and Hezbollah for several reasons," Ghaedi told Iran International.
He said the 2006 war between Israel and Lebanon cost around three and a half billion dollars. “Today, an attack on Hezbollah could cost more than 50 billion dollars. Additionally, Hezbollah's enhanced capabilities, including precision missiles, position them to retaliate effectively against Israeli targets.”
According to security sources, Hezbollah has preemptively evacuated several key sites in southern Lebanon and the eastern Bekaa Valley in anticipation of a potential attack by Israel.
Ghaedi believes that Israel will likely conduct limited strikes in response to Hezbollah, aiming to resolve political differences within Israel and seek international condemnation of Hezbollah.
He referred to the rocket used in the attack, allegedly an Iranian-made Falaq, as a central point of tension. “If confirmed, it could prompt small-scale Israeli responses within Iran, following Naftali Bennett’s ‘thousand cuts’ strategy against the Islamic Republic."
The conflict might have broader implications, potentially involving other powers such as the United States and Iran. However, Ghaedi finds it unlikely that Iran-backed forces in Iraq and Syria will enter a conflict under current circumstances.
Trump’s last tenure was highly 'eventful' for Iranians. The former president withdrew the US from the 2015 nuclear deal, ordered the killing of Qasem Soleimani—arguably Iran’s second most powerful figure after the Supreme Leader — and imposed extensive oil sanctions that put unprecedented pressure on Iran’s economy.
It’s little surprise, then, that many seem to dread Trump’s potential second term. The annual inflation rate is already ‘back-breaking’, as we say in Persian, hovering above 40% for three years. Corruption is rampant. Another round of Trump’s “Maximum Pressure” would push millions off the cliff – or drag the country into war. And still, many say they’d like Trump to win. It is impossible to say how many, but it’s a sizable chunk of the population.
“Trump may be bad for us, but he’s worse for the regime,” says Farhad, an IT technician looking for a job. He was “kicked out” of work after he was arrested during the 2022 protests. “Trump is no Biden,” he says, “and his Iran advisers are not [former Iranian FM] Zarif chums. The pressure he’d exert could hasten the collapse of the regime.” What about ordinary Iranians, I ask, what if there’s a war, what would happen to their lives? “You call this a life?” he snaps back.
Farhad is 23. He’s visibly angry and has little to lose –materially at least. Those who do have something to lose, the ‘better-off’, see things differently.
“People have suffered enough these past years. We need the sanctions lifted, and that’s more likely with a Democratic administration. Trump has shown no goodwill towards Iran,” says Arash, an engineering student who actively campaigned for Iran’s new president, Masoud Pezeshkian. “Iran cannot prosper with anti-Americanism. I voted for Pezeshkian because he seems less aggressive and might be able to negotiate a deal with the US and attract the foreign investment our country desperately needs.”
That may very well be wishful thinking, given what US officials have said on record and the fact that Iran’s foreign policy is dictated by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, not the president. Still, many Iranians share Arash’s hope for a miracle. However, a Trump victory this November seems much more likely. This prospect terrifies Arash as much as it thrills Farhad.
And then there’s Farkhondeh, a 29-year-old journalist who avidly follows US politics. She believes both the fear and hope that Trump would put more pressure on Iran may be exaggerated, if not entirely misplaced. “I think Trump is as likely to enter negotiations with Iran as [Kamala] Harris,” Farkhondeh says. “Trump’s record is not that of a warmonger. He’s a businessman. I think he wouldn't hesitate to talk to Khamenei if the latter was willing. That said, I don’t think any good for ordinary Iranians would come out of such a negotiation. Both sides would be more than happy to sell us out for their own interests.”
Curiously, almost everybody I talked to focused on Trump. There are no polls on this, but it seems rather clear that most Iranians believe the former US president would win again. Neither in social networks nor among my acquaintances have I seen anyone who sees Harris defeating Trump. This could be a result of Trump’s aggressive demeanor, which makes his opponent appear weak, or it could be because he’s a former president. But it’s also because Harris is a woman.
Sex or gender may be less of an issue in the US, but it remains significant in Iran, where no woman has ever passed the vetting process to enter a presidential race. The highest position a woman has reached in the Islamic Republic is Minister of Health—and that only once. Strangely, many view this as a ‘capability’ issue rather than a direct result of fanatical religious orthodoxy.
“America and Iran may differ socially, but I think being a woman will work against a candidate even there.” Sima, a 40-year-old woman who works at a publishing house said. She regularly posts about women's rights on Instagram, but takes little interest in the US election, even though a woman is in the race. “I like Harris to win,” Sima says, “but it won’t make much difference to us here either way.” She believes the impact of US elections on Iran is “exaggerated” – and it benefits the government.
“Iranian officials fuel this notion by constantly referring to the US as the enemy,” Sima says. “America is a scapegoat for their incompetence and corruption. Many have bought this idea, thinking that either disaster or redemption awaits us if Trump wins. Both are misguided, in my view. We better focus on our own rulers and let the Americans worry about theirs.”