Tehran denies claims of election meddling to undermine Trump's campaign
Iran is rejecting claims that it is attempting to undermine former US President Donald Trump's campaign, by interfering in the ongoing election.
Iran is rejecting claims that it is attempting to undermine former US President Donald Trump's campaign, by interfering in the ongoing election.
"Iran has no objective or activity aimed at influencing the American elections. A significant portion of these accusations are psychological operations designed to create false momentum for election campaigns," the Iranian mission to the United Nations in New York stated on Monday.
US spy agencies say they observed Iran attempting to influence the 2024 election to prevent former President Trump from securing a second term in the White House.
Notably, the press briefing held by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, suggested a shift in Iran's strategy from previous years.
Instead of merely acting as a "chaos agent," Iran is now spreading “disinformation” through “vast webs of online personas and propaganda mills.” These efforts are in addition to clandestine attempts to influence the campaign in favor of Vice President Kamala Harris.
First reported by the Wall Street Journal, US officials say Iran has accelerated its use of covert social media networks to influence voters in the lead-up of election -- aiming to avoid increased tensions with the US.
Influence by “foreign actors” has been a source of apprehension in recent US elections, especially since 2016, when ‘Russian meddling’ became a major theme, with people on both parties accusing the other of having benefited from it.
Director of the US National Intelligence Avril Haines warned in a statement on July 9 that "Iran is becoming increasingly aggressive in their foreign influence efforts, seeking to stoke discord and undermine confidence in our democratic institutions."
In yet another warning on Monday, an unnamed US intelligence official told Reuters that US foes targeting November's election with influence operations are expected to adapt to presidential contest developments, seemingly alluding to Joe Biden's withdrawal from the 2024 presidential race.
The official suggested that US intelligence agencies anticipate foreign actors will redirect their influence operations towards Vice President Kamala Harris. "We expect these actors to adjust to these developments and integrate them into their influence narratives, aiming to undermine democratic institutions."
There seems to be a growing consensus in Washington that the ‘influence’ offensive from the Tehran has to be taken seriously, even though it’s not yet as serious as threats from Moscow and Beijing –and perhaps not on the same global scale.
Russia, China, and Iran deny all such accusations, punching back with allegations of American influence campaigns –and direct interventions– across the world.
The senior intelligence official told Reuters Tehran and Moscow are sticking to their traditional presidential preferences. According to prior intelligence assessments, Iranian operatives are focused on undermining the Republican ticket, while Russia is making efforts to smear the Democrats.
Foreign actors have already used the July 13 attempted assassination of Trump "as part of their narratives," Reuters quoted the US intelligence official as saying.
Another official explained that Russia and Iran have in the past tried employing actual Americans in their operations through false front companies and third-party websites. "Doing so provides them with cover and offers a more authentic voice," the official said.
The Director of US National Intelligence had warned in May that Iran will pose a significant threat to the upcoming US elections, predicting that Tehran will intensify its cyber and influence activities.
"Iran's actions are becoming increasingly aggressive," Haines told the US Senate Select Committee on Intelligence. She added that Iran seeks to “stoke discord and undermine confidence” in democratic institutions, pointing to their interference in previous election cycles as evidence of this ongoing threat.
In 2021, the US Treasury sanctioned Iranian cyber company Emennet Pasargad formerly known as Net Peygard Samavat Company along with five individuals associated with the company for having "engaged in covert and deceptive activities to disseminate disinformation through websites and social media designed to undermine Americans’ faith in US elections."
Iran International revealed in an investigation with Semafor last year that an Iranian-backed influence network, called the Iran Experts Initiative, sought to build relationships with overseas academics and researchers in the West to affect Washington's foreign policy on Tehran.
A deadly rocket strike on Saturday in Majdal Shams village in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights killed 12 children playing soccer, becoming the latest victims in a suspected Hezbollah attack on Saturday.
The Druze are an Arabic-speaking ethno- religious group who adhere to the Druze faith, residing in Israel, Lebanon, Syria and Jordan.
The scale of the massacre is the largest civilian loss in Israel since October 7. Druze and Israelis are still mourning and coming to terms with the immense loss, said Anan Wahabi, a lecturer at the University of Haifa, specializing in national security.
Wahabi is also a Druze-Israeli.
“It was unprecedented attack that killed the innocent and beautiful children. Their only guilt was just to come and to try and play football,” he said.
The complex situation of the Golan Heights Druze has been highlighted in the most tragic way possible. Wahabi said those in the area had longstanding Syrian identity in the past, but now have a growing affiliation with Israel, especially the younger generation, some of whom serve in the Israeli military. They are not forced to serve and volunteer should they enlist.
The people of Golan Heights are residents of Israel and an increasing number are choosing to become Israeli citizens. Since the Syrian civil war, and October 7, Israeli citizenship by Druze in that area, jumped significantly. In contrast, other Druze in Israel, serve in the military and police, including the war against Hamas with many reaching high ranks in the IDF and government.
After the 1967 Mideast war, Israel captured the Golan Heights from Syria - and effectively annexed it in 1981.
For the Druze, their identity and history is complex and multifaceted.
“I must tell that the first identity is the Druze identity for them, and we have our own flag. Secondly there is the national identity. We've gotten a lot of messages from all parts of the Israeli society giving condolences and standing with us in this very hard time,” said Wahabi.
The Druze in Syria are angry said Wahabi, calling Hezbollah, which translates to the party of God in Arabic to the party of the devil, instead. He said the Druze in Lebanon are not speaking up and are trying to avoid confrontation, with the Iran-backed Shiite military organization that dominates the country.
"We could hear voices, from the Syrian Druze calling Hezbollah, Hezbsheytan; the party of the devil."
No escaping Geopolitics:
But there is no escaping the geopolitics of the region no matter the ethnic or religious identity.
IDF Spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari said in a press conference from the scene the rocket that struck Majdal Shams was an Iranian-made Falaq-1. The rocket identified as having had 53 kg load of explosives.
US intelligence officials said there is no doubt that Hezbollah carried out the attack, however, what is not clear is if the children were the target or if they misfired.
Israeli officials were quick to offer support to the community and pointed the blame at Tehran.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu promised a “harsh response” during a visit to Majdal Shams Monday.
Hezbollah denied responsibility but said it had launched strikes on what it said were military targets in nearby areas.
"A Jewish child murdered on the Gaza border on Oct. 7 and a Druze child murdered on the Golan Heights are the same. These are our children," Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said Monday while with the Prime Minister in Majdal Shams.
A turning point?
Some experts believe the deadly incident involving youth could be a turning point in the conflict.
The FDD’s Behnam Ben Taleblu said Israel’s response will likely be severe, referring to it as “deterrence by punishment.”
“The question is really where and when,” said Taleblu.
Taleblu said a number of factors, like America’s upcoming presidential elections, will determine just how far Israel can go in their response.
“If Israel does look to restore deterrence, it may be a short lived deterrence. Iran, Hezbollah and many of these other actors think there's a longer leash here because the US may want to avoid a military conflict or may want to avoid even the potential for escalation as it gets closer to the election,” said Taleblu.
On Monday, the US declared support for Israel but also cautioned its Middle East ally about escalation with the Iranian-backed Hezbollah.
French President Emmanuel Macron urged Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian on Monday to “avoid regional military escalation,” according to Élysée Palace.
The Alma Research and Education center based in Northern Israel published an assessment, saying that Hezbollah finds itself in a“Win-Win” situation, where it benefits regardless of the outcome.
The report, by Alma founder Sarit Zehavi, states Hezbollah has a desire to draw Israel into a full-scale conflict with the aim of consolidating power in Lebanon.
"An occurrence of such a large-scale tragedy resulting in several casualties has the potential to provoke a substantial and notable reaction from Israel. Within the upcoming hours and days, we shall ascertain whether this event truly marks a pivotal moment," as written in the Alma report.
More than three weeks after the election of President Masoud Pezeshkian, the specifics of his economic plan remain unclear. His top officials are expected to be announced by Tuesday or Wednesday at the latest. However, it is already known that experienced economic manager Ali Tayyebnia has declined the position of presidential deputy.
Meanwhile, the battered Iranian currency, the rial, remains weak and faces the danger of another sudden fall against major currencies, which would exacerbate the annual inflation rate hovering above 40%.
Kamran Nadri, an Islamist economist, has warned the government to be careful about injecting dollars into the market to support the rial. He has expressed his agreement with remarks by former central bank chief Abdolnaser Hemmati who warned in recent days that dollar injections have failed to strengthen the rial, currently trading at 590,000 per one US dollar.
After Pezeshkian’s election, the rial showed some signs of improvement, but now it appears that the temporary reprieve was due to government intervention in the currency markets.
Nadri maintained that the government’s oil revenues have improved since 2021, either because of lax sanctions enforcement by the Biden administration or Tehran’s efforts to boost shipments to China. As a result, the government’s currency reserves are stronger, but that is not a reason for hasty interventions to support the rial.
Iran’s daily oil exports were around 250,000 barrels per day after the Trump administration imposed full oil sanction in 2019, but as soon as the President Joe Biden assumed office, the volume increased. In recent months, Iran has been exporting around 1.5 million barrels daily, mostly to China, using illicit methods to hide the shipments.
Nadri, who is an expert in ‘Islamic banking’ warned, "Given the increasing likelihood of Trump's presidency in the United States, we must proceed more cautiously. This means we should anticipate potential issues with oil sales and avoid using all of our current foreign exchange reserves."
Pezeshkian has released a brief outline of his economic objectives, where he acknowledges the serious impact of sanctions, stating that with current budgetary restrictions it would not be possible to alleviate the hardship people endure. Even if an agreement with the United States is reached soon, it will take about two years for its positive economic impact to become noticeable, Pezeshkian’s plan stated. Therefore, Pezeshkian believes that the government should rely on controlling expenditures in the first two years of his presidency.
One of the main areas of budgetary outlays is expenditures on the nuclear program, the military and Iran’s proxy forces throughout the Middle East. However, these are Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s red lines. Pezeshkian has already shown his readiness to continue support for the likes of Hamas and Hezbollah, while the Houthis in Yemen are engaged in daily conflict with Western navies in the Red Sea. As a result, Iran must equip and pay tens of thousands of militias in at least five countries, including Syria and Iraq. Essential domestic expenditures have already been cut to the bone, with around 30 million people having descended below the poverty line.
The only remaining savings can come from reducing energy subsidies, which means increasing prices for gas, electricity and gasoline. This is what most experts expect Pezeshkian’s administration to do, risking protests and upheavals, like what took place in November 2019, when gasoline prices were raised and nationwide protests broke out, killing 1,500 civilians.
The president’s plan also mentions cutting the volume of dollars provided at lower rates to importers, a scheme that is a cesspool of corruption. But imports with more expensive dollars means higher consumer prices, something the Islamic government has tried to avoid not to risk a backlash by the population.
Pezeshkian also acknowledged in his brief draft economic plan that the country’s government-controlled banks are in deep trouble with tens of billions of dollars’ worth of uncollectible loans, mostly to inefficient government enterprises and individuals with strong political connections. However, this would necessitate major reforms in both the political and economic systems, a tall order for a president who has vowed not to introduce big initiatives.