Young Iranian woman arrested for singing in public

As the crisis deepens, the international community is watching with growing alarm, citizens being urged to evacuate the region.

Fears of a wider conflict have escalated following the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on Wednesday, just a day after an Israeli strike killed Fuad Shukr, a senior military commander from Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, which like Hamas is backed by Iran.

The United States, along with several other countries such as France and Canada, is telling its citizens to leave the region, and is deploying more military might in the Middle East as preventative and defensive measures.

Jonathan Finer, White House National Security Council deputy adviser, said on Sunday, "Our goal is de-escalation, our goal is deterrence, our goal is defense of Israel."

On Saturday, US President Joe Biden expressed hope that Iran will back down from its vow to avenge the killing of Haniyeh. However, with Israel bracing for potential attacks from both Iran and Hezbollah as well as other Iran-backed militia groups, the situation remains highly volatile.

Asked by reporters whether Iran would stand down, Biden said on Saturday in response to a shouted question, "I hope so. I don't know."

The Centcom commander Michael Kurilla, who is in charge of US forces in the Middle East, has arrived in the region to assess the threat, which could come from multiple fronts and as early as Monday, according to a report by Axios. The Pentagon said on Friday it would deploy additional fighter jets and Navy warships to the region.

The Ynet news website similarly reported a round of security meetings in Israel over the weekend to prepare for an attack that could lead to a war on what it said could be “five fronts,” without elaborating.

According to Israeli media, the US is scrambling to revive a regional coalition that earlier this year succeeded in almost entirely thwarting the first ever direct Iranian attack on Israel, while Israeli officials reportedly believe that this time around there may be damage and casualties.

In April, hundreds of missiles and kamikaze drones were launched from Iran. Tehran had telegraphed that strike in advance giving Israel, the US and their allies enough time to prepare and shoot down all but two of the missiles -- which landed near a military base but left no casualties.

A single source report even claimed on Saturday that a high-level American security delegation, brokered by Oman, has secretly traveled to Tehran to deliver a 'calming and cautionary' message aimed at preventing a potential military conflict. Kuwait’s Al-Jarida newspaper cited an unnamed source in Iran's Supreme National Security Council as revealing to them that the American delegation, arriving on a private plane from Turkey, landed at Payam-e-Khorram Airport in Karaj on Thursday and held a two-hour meeting with Iranian officials before returning to Ankara. The US State Department rejected the report on Sunday.

Additionally, Jordan's Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi traveled to Tehran on Sunday in a rare visit for urgent talks about regional developments with Iran's Acting Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri Kani. 

Safadi's visit to Iran follows continued diplomatic contacts by the United States and its partners including France, Britain, Italy, and Egypt on Saturday.

Egypt's Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty stressed in a phone call with Bagheri Kani that recent developments in the region were "unprecedented, very dangerous" and threatening to stability.

Haniyeh's death was one in a series of killings of senior figures of Iran’s proxy groups as the Gaza war nears its eleventh month.

Iran, Hamas and Hezbollah have all hyped the retaliation threat, but the Iranian media is also pursuing a strategic ambiguity regarding the timing but emphasizes that the forthcoming action will surpass the previous offensive in scale and impact.

Despite possibly being a strategic move, Iran's secrecy and delay in releasing official explanations about Haniyeh's assassination have sparked numerous speculations about the hit operation.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) announced on Saturday that the Hamas leader was assassinated with a "short-range projectile with a warhead of approximately 7 kilograms."

This contradicts reports by The New York Times and The Telegraph, which claimed that the attack was carried out by planting a bomb in Haniyeh's room. If true, this latter scenario could have potentially allowed Iran to limit its retaliation to a similar bombing in Israel.

The Telegraph reported that Israel’s intelligence agency, Mossad, hired Iranian security agents to plant explosives in three separate rooms of a building where a Hamas leader was staying.

Israel’s Channel 12 said the killing of Hamas’s Haniyeh at an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-run guesthouse in the heart of Tehran left the regime feeling “deeply penetrated” and “completely exposed” to Israeli intelligence.

The political leader of Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh, was among those targeted by Israel. Haniyeh was assassinated on Wednesday morning in Iran’s capital Tehran. He had traveled to Tehran to participate in the inauguration of Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian on Tuesday.

While Israel did not claim responsibility, Iranian authorities and Hamas officials have blamed the Jewish state for the attack, vowing to retaliate.

Haniyeh, who has served as the senior political figure of Hamas, has been a central figure in the organization's leadership, a key bridge between Iran and Hamas since 2017. The New York Times reported that Haniyeh was killed by an explosive device hidden in a complex where he was known to stay. However, IRGC-affiliated Fars News denied the report stating that "the results of the experts' investigation indicate that Haniyeh was struck by a projectile."

Mohammed Al-Deif

Another high-profile figure, Mohammad Al-Deif, head of Hamas' military wing was killed in an Israeli airstrike in Gaza last month. The Israeli military confirmed Al-Deif death on Thursday, a day after Ismail Haniyeh was killed in Tehran. Al-Deif was believed to have been one of the masterminds of Hamas' Oct. 7 attack on southern Israel, but Israel was not certain about his death after he was targeted.

"The IDF (Israel Defense Forces) announced that on July 13th, 2024, IDF fighter jets struck in the area of Khan Yunis, and following an intelligence assessment, it can be confirmed that Mohammed Deif was eliminated in the strike," the military said on Thursday.

Rafa'a Salameh

Commander of the Khan Yunis Hamas unit, Rafa'a Salameh, was also targeted in the July 13 strike alongside Al-Deif. Salameh was responsible for overseeing activities in the Khan Yunis area, a key area in Gaza for Hamas' operations, and considered another mastermind behind Hamas’s missiles and drones attack on Israel in October.

The IDF announced the elimination of Salameh on July 14 stating: “Salameh was one of the masterminds behind the Oct. 7 massacre and commanded over plans for the development of tunnels in the Khan Yunis Brigade.”

Hezbollah Leadership

In addition to the Hamas figures, key members of Iran’s Lebanese proxy militant group Hezbollah have also been systematically targeted by Israel.

Fuad Shukr

Fuad Shukr, the "right-hand man" of Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah who served as his adviser for planning and directing wartime operations was killed in an Israeli airstrike in Beirut on Tuesday.

"Fuad Shukr has directed Hezbollah's attacks on the State of Israel since October 8th, and he was the commander responsible for the murder of the 12 children in Majdal Shams in northern Israel on Saturday evening, as well as the killing of numerous Israelis and foreign nationals over the years," the IDF said in a statement.

"As the Head of Hezbollah's Strategic Unit, Fuad was responsible for the majority of Hezbollah's most advanced weaponry, including precise-guided missiles, cruise missiles, anti-ship missiles, long-range rockets, and UAVs. He was responsible for force build-up, planning, and execution of terror attacks against the State of Israel," the statement added.

Mohammed Nasser

Top Hezbollah commander Mohammed Nasser was killed in an Israeli strike near the city of Tyre in south Lebanon on July 3. The IDF confirmed it successfully eliminated Nasser, whom they identified as the commander responsible for firing at Israel from southwestern Lebanon.

A Hezbollah official told the Associated Press that Nasser who went by the name “Abu Naameh” was head of the group’s Aziz Unit, one of three regional divisions in southern Lebanon.

Taleb Sami Abdullah

Top Hezbollah commander, Taleb Sami Abdullah known as Hajj Abu Taleb, was killed in an Israeli airstrike on June 11 ​​in the Jouaiyya area of southern Lebanon.

Abdullah was the most senior member of the group to be killed in eight months of hostilities with Israel, Reuters reported citing a security source.

Hezbollah vowed to intensify its attacks along the Lebanon-Israel border to avenge Abdullah’s killing.

“Our response after the martyrdom of Abu Taleb will be to intensify our operations in severity, strength, quantity, and quality,” senior Hezbollah official Hashem Saffieddine said during Abdullah’s funeral ceremony which was attended by hundreds of the militant groups' members.

Abdallah was also a close friend of former Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps commander Qasem Soleimani who was assassinated by the United States in 2020.

On Sunday, Pezeshkian named Ali Tayyebnia, a long-time economic planner and manager, as his top economic advisor. Tayyebnia, who served as Minister of Economy during President Hassan Rouhani’s first term, earned a solid reputation before the United States reimposed economic sanctions in 2018.

Throughout Pezeshkian’s campaign and after his victory, many in Tehran believed Tayyebnia would be appointed First Vice President, a role that can carry significant influence depending on the officeholder. However, Tayyebnia announced in late July that he could not take on critical responsibilities due to personal reasons.

Pezeshkian’s second appointment on Sunday was Hamid Pourmohammadi, an economist and veteran manager in Iran’s predominantly state-controlled economy, as head of the Planning and Budget Organization. This organization is crucial for long-term economic planning and budget oversight.

Like Tayyebnia, Pourmohammadi is seen as a reliable expert, who held managerial position with both Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's government and with other administrations. Tayyebnia is closer to Iran's so-called reformists rather than the hardliner “revolutionary forces” that held power until President Ebrahim Raisi’s death in a helicopter crash in May and the subsequent elections.

Iran’s economy has been in crisis since 2018, but the Raisi administration, which relied heavily on political appointments from among hardliners, worsened the situation. The national currency, the rial, lost 50% of its value under Raisi, contributing to a persistent annual inflation rate of around 50%. Even conservative politicians and media criticized Raisi’s administration for mismanagement, calling for significant changes. However, the hardliners did the opposite, purging universities and institutions of reputable educators and managers.

While Tayyebnia’s reputation is solid by the standards of Iran’s clerical government, Pourmohammadi was implicated in a major corruption case in 2011 involving corruption in clandestine efforts to circumvent UN oil export sanctions imposed due to Iran’s nuclear program. He was arrested as a main suspect but later released on bail, though the fate of nearly $3 billion remains unknown. Some others involved served lengthy prison terms or fled the country. In the Islamic Republic, legal cases involving well-connected insiders often disappear into obscurity without clear resolution.

Pezeshkian faces pressure to improve the economy, with Tehran hoping for renewed negotiations with the United States that could lead to reduced sanctions. However, the ultimate decision-maker on the nuclear program and foreign policy is Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. The president’s ability to improve the economy is limited by the resources available, and a significant portion of oil revenues is allocated to the military, the nuclear program, and support for regional proxy forces across the Middle East—policies over which the president has no control.

Years of state control over the economy have also led to a deeply inefficient system plagued by corruption. Even without sanctions, creating a competitive global economy would be a significant challenge.

The call for "revenge for Haniyeh's blood" was made by nearly all of Tehran's hardline media including the state television, the Kayhan newspaper close to Khamenei's office and Hamshahri, the mouthpiece of the Tehran Municipality.

Proreform media outlets, on the other hand, have mainly blamed infiltrators working for Israel for the attack and called on the intelligence agencies to identify and punish them.

The biggest headline on the state TV's daily newspaper Jam-e Jam on Thursday was "Order for taking revenge," which alluded to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's order demanding a direct attack on Israel.

Hamshahri's headline said that "All of Iran calls for revenge." The daily quoted Khamenei as saying that he sees taking revenge for Haniyeh as his responsibility.

The Kayhan, linked to to Khamenei's office said in a commentary that "Iran as the host should take revenge for its guest Haniyeh." Meanwhile, the daily's firebrand editor in chief Hossein Shariatmadari called on the Iran armed forces to launch attacks on the US base in Ain al-Asad in Iraq as well as on US vessels in the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman. Shariatmadari called on Iranian officials "not to cross out the United States' name from their revenge list," while also calling for immediate and hard revenge.

He further suggested that Iranian officials should not waste any time waiting for a decision by the UN Security Council, and instead, give a paralyzing blow to Israel. Furthermore, the Kayhan said that the main culprit behind the attack on Haniyeh was the United States and that Israel could have not made the decision to kill Haniyeh without US support. He concluded that the United States should be one of the main targets of the Islamic Republic's "hard revenge".

Shariatmadari further said: "Tens of US strategic and military centers are within the range of Iranian weapons. Ain al-Assad was only an example. The US 5th fleet in Bahrain as well as its vessels in the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman can be Ira's other targets.

Proreform Rouydad24 quoted Mansoor Hagqiqatpoor, a former lawmaker close to former Majles Speaker Ali Larijani and a former deputy to Qasem Soleimani the former commander of the IRGC Qods Force, called for the removal of some of Iran's political, military and security officials from their posts. He said, "from a security perspective, the attack on Haniyeh's residence in Tehran was unacceptable and an investigation needs to be launched into the matter."

Meanwhile, Haqiqatpoor criticized Iran's responses to previous Israeli attacks as insufficiently deterrent. He added that the assassination of Haniyeh, who was a guest of the government, reflects poorly on the performance of Iran's security organizations. He emphasized that no place in Israel should remain safe after this attack and called for coordinated missile strikes on Israel by all Muslim states.

Many Iranian proreform and moderate conservative media outlets pointed out the possibility of Israeli infiltration of the Iranian security and intelligence organizations. Foreign Policy analyst Hassan Beheshtipour wrote on Nameh News website that "the roots of infiltration should be identified and dealt with." Beheshtipour told Nameh News that Israeli infiltration in Iran is widespread.

He suggested that Iran should launch a surprise attack on Israel but cautioned against falling into Netanyahu's trap by escalating regional tensions. He emphasized that Iran can still pursue negotiations with the West to resolve its nuclear issues while simultaneously confronting Israel.

The assassination was carried out despite heightened security measures due to the inauguration of President Masoud Pezeshkian which took place one day earlier, underscoring a severe breach. Reports are now suggesting that it might have been an "inside job".

A report by the New York Times says over two dozen individuals, including senior intelligence officers, military officials, and staff at the guesthouse, have been detained in connection with the incident.

The Revolutionary Guards Corps' (IRGC) specialized intelligence unit is now spearheading the investigation, tasked with identifying those responsible, the New York Times said.

Iranian authorities have not yet confirmed making any arrests in connection with the assassination. Despite the vague public statements, the severity of the situation is clear, as it shows the Islamic Republic cannot even protect its guests and allies.

"The perception that Iran can neither protect its homeland nor its key allies could be fatal for the Iranian regime, because it basically signals to its foes that if they can’t topple the Islamic Republic, they can decapitate it," said Ali Vaez, Iran director for the International Crisis Group, speaking to the New York Times.

This incident emerges against the backdrop of a protracted covert war between Iran and Israel, characterized by targeted assassinations and sabotage. Iranian officials and Hamas have accused Israel of orchestrating the attack, while Israel has remained silent, neither confirming nor denying its involvement.

The IRGC on Saturday declared that Haniyeh was assassinated with a "short-range projectile with a warhead of approximately 7 kilograms" in Tehran. The IRGC also asserted that "this action was designed and implemented by the Zionist regime and supported by the criminal government of America."

Ahmad Bakhshayesh Ardastani, a member of the Iranian Parliament's National Security Commission, confirmed on Saturday that there are "gaps and impurities" in the Islamic Republic's security and intelligence system. He outlined "two probable scenarios" regarding Haniyeh's death: "One is that the Israelis used a drone and targeted the location from the mountains north of Tehran. The second scenario is that no drone was involved; rather, a number of infiltrators within Iran positioned themselves near the same mountain and used a missile-like weapon to strike Haniyeh's residence."

However, Western media reports suggest that Haniyeh was killed by explosive devices planted well in advance in his room, possibly by agents recruited by Mossad, Israel's intelligence agency. A report by The Telegraph says the devices were placed in three separate rooms of the guesthouse, pointing to a meticulously planned operation.

The original plan was to assassinate Haniyeh during the funeral of Ebrahim Raisi, Iran's former president, in May. However, the operation was aborted due to the large crowds inside the building, which significantly increased the risk of failure, the report said.

Farzin Nadimi, a senior analyst at the Washington Institute and an expert on Iran's defense and security issues in the Persian Gulf region, has questioned the likelihood of a bombing, telling Iran International, "While Israel has the capability to carry out such a bombing, according to reports, Haniyeh had been staying in a hotel until the night of the incident. Therefore, he did not have a fixed location that could have been targeted with a bomb planted there months earlier." Nadimi suggested that targeting Haniyeh with a projectile remains the strongest scenario.

A system in disarray

The incident has not only embarrassed Iran's leadership but also exposed the system's vulnerabilities at a time when it seeks to project strength and stability. The IRGC, responsible for the Islamic Republic's security, now faces an unprecedented challenge in regaining control and preventing further breaches. This assassination underscores the precariousness of Iran's internal security and the challenges it faces from both external and internal strife.

It has also sparked a blame game within the ranks of the IRGC, with internal factions speculating about possible complicity at higher levels. The Telegraph report also cited a close aide to President Pezeshkian, suggesting that the security lapse resulting in Haniyeh's killing "may have been an intentional bid by the IRGC to harm the new president’s reputation."

The aide expressed disbelief at the incident happening by accident, especially on Pezeshkian’s first day in office, suggesting it might lead to war with Israel, all due to the IRGC.

Former Iranian President Hassan Rouhani also believes the attack sought to destabilize Iran during a sensitive political transition.

While it is not yet fully clear how Haniyeh was killed, the incident has brought "a tremendous embarrassment for the IRGC" and triggered a heightened state of alert within the Iranian leadership.