Zarif resignation sparks criticism over president’s cabinet choices

Following repeated threats from Iranian officials to avenge the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, the Islamic Republic is apparently holding a series of military exercises amid fears of a full-blown war with Israel.

Morad Babakhani, the political deputy governor of Qasr-e Shirin in Kermanshah province confirmed that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has been conducting military drills from August 9 to 13.

Babakhani sought to reassure local residents by linking the sound of explosions to the exercises, claiming there was "no reason for concern." However, the reassurances do little to mask the broader implications of the IRGC's maneuvers.

Preparing for war or training Russian personnel?

A new NOTAM issued on Saturday warned pilots to avoid flying over an area near Iran's Nojeh air base in Hamadan due to scheduled gunfire from August 11 to 14. It is not yet clear if the NOTAM (Notice to Airmen) issued for Hamadan air base is connected to the Sunday wargames, but the warning might suggest a scenario that is not much relevant to the ongoing Iran-Israel tension, but to the ongoing conflict in Europe.

Reuters reported on Friday that dozens of Russian personnel are being trained in Iran to use the Fat’h-360 close-range ballistic missile system.

In 2016, Iran granted Russia permission to conduct air operations in Syria from the same airbase in Hamadan, and it seems a likely scenario that the Russian personnel are using the Nojeh airbase again, this time for training purposes.

In the ongoing Iran-Israel conflict, Russia has tried to remain neutral and publicly called for restraint from both sides. However, according to a report by The New York Times on Monday, Iranian officials claim Russia has begun delivering advanced air defense and radar equipment to Iran following Tehran's request for these arms, increasing Tehran's preparedness for a possible war with Israel.

A dangerous game: Tehran’s aggressive posturing

Iran and the Palestinian Islamist group Hamas have accused Israel of killing Haniyeh on July 31. While Israel has neither confirmed nor denied responsibility for the killing, the incident has heightened fears that the ongoing war between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip could escalate into a broader conflict across the Middle East.

The IRGC's military exercises come at a particularly precarious time. According to an exclusive report by Iran International, President Masoud Pezeshkian has recently met with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to plead with him to avoid direct military action against Israel. Pezeshkian reportedly warned Khamenei that any such move could provoke Israeli retaliation, targeting Iran’s critical infrastructure and energy resources.

The potential consequences are dire: a full-blown conflict that could cripple Iran's already struggling economy and possibly lead to the clerical rulers’ collapse. Yet, despite the warnings and the calls for restraint, the Islamic Republic appears intent on escalating the situation. It has threatened to launch direct missile strikes on Israel in response to Haniyeh's assassination, a move that would almost certainly trigger a response from Tel Aviv.

Global pressure and diplomatic efforts

In recent days, international diplomatic efforts have intensified to dissuade Tehran from following through on its threats. The Guardian reported on Thursday that the Islamic Republic might be reconsidering the scale and nature of its retaliatory attack against Israel, largely due to significant diplomatic pressure aimed at preventing civilian casualties.

However, the lack of explicit support from Islamic countries for Tehran's military response does not seem to have deterred Iran. Reports from The Telegraph indicate that while the IRGC is pushing for a missile strike on Tel Aviv, Pezeshkian has suggested targeting Israeli-affiliated sites in Azerbaijan or Iraqi Kurdistan as an alternative, with prior notification to those countries.

Simultaneously, Politico reported that the Biden administration has been working through diplomatic channels to persuade Tehran to reconsider its plans for a military attack on Israel. US officials have warned Iran that a large-scale assault would only escalate tensions and increase the likelihood of a direct confrontation between the two nations.

The reality of escalation

Despite the diplomatic efforts, the situation on the ground suggests that Tehran is preparing for another serious escalation. On the evening of April 13, the Islamic Republic launched an unprecedented attack on Israel, using over 300 cruise and ballistic missiles and drones. This marked the first direct assault by Iran on Israeli soil, signaling a shift from the years-long shadow war between the two countries to open confrontation.

Israel’s response was swift and decisive. On the morning of April 19, Israeli forces targeted a military base in Isfahan, underlining their readiness to retaliate against Iranian aggression.

Iran’s security and intelligence agents are pressuring political prisoners at Evin to make false confessions against each other after a violent assault by guards on Tuesday against several female prisoners at the notorious jail, including Nobel Peace Prize laureate Narges Mohammadi.

They had protested the execution of Iranian dissident Reza Rasaei. In a statement, Mohammadi’s family said that following the execution of Reza Rasaei, several prisoners gathered in the prison yard to protest against the death penalty given to Rasaei, among over 300 to have taken place since the start of the year.

“Narges and several other prisoners protested against the locked doors that were preventing critically ill inmates from being taken to the prison clinic," the statement said. "They attempted to get those in need of urgent medical attention out of the ward and to the infirmary."

The women's ward was subsequently "flooded with military forces," and an order was given to "assault the protesters", the statement said. The violent crackdown resulted in severe beatings, with some prisoners sustaining physical injuries and others experiencing nervous breakdowns.

During the assault, Mohammadi, who suffers with a heart condition, was "repeatedly punched in the chest by male military and security guards," causing her to collapse in the prison yard with intense chest pain.

Despite her condition, no efforts were made to transfer her to the infirmary or a hospital. Instead, a prison doctor entered the ward, and Mohammadi, who displayed "bruising and soreness" on her chest, arms, and right hand, announced her intention to file a lawsuit over the assault.

Although she was administered painkillers and blood pressure medication, the family expressed deep concern that the guards "might have intentionally targeted her chest" given her condition.

In a statement expressing "alarm and urgent concern" for the well being of Mohammadi and other prisoners attacked by the guards, New York-based PEN America highlighting past instances where Evin prison authorities had neglected and delayed medical care for political prisoners with fatal outcomes.

Nobel Peace laureate Shirin Ebadi also sounded the alarm over the safety of political prisoners assaulted on Tuesday.

"The lives of Narges Mohammadi, Sarvenaz Ahmadi, and all political prisoners in various prisons are in danger. They are paying the price for the insatiable totalitarianism of the Islamic Republic,” Ebadi said in a post on Instagram.

Moreover, elite students Ali Younesi and Amir Hossein Moradi, imprisoned in Evin Prison, started a hunger strike on Saturday to protest the attack on the women’s ward.

Amid growing media scrutiny and widespread condemnation following the incident, Iran's Prisons Organization issued a rare statement on Friday through Mizan, a judiciary-linked outlet, addressing the incident.

The statement claimed that a group of inmates in the women’s ward, "with the instigation of Narges Mohammadi," rushed towards a guard, broke a lock, and attempted to enter the outer courtyard.

The Prisons Organization acknowledged that security personnel intervened but insisted that guards acted to maintain order, downplaying the severity of the injuries and asserting that no prisoners were harmed. The statement also claimed that "the guards and the prison protection unit did not enter the prison or fight with the inmates."

The Prisons Organization further said that two prisoners experienced heart palpitations and stress due to the commotion but were found to have no significant health issues after being examined and were returned to the ward. The organization maintained that "the general condition of both prisoners is good."

Despite the official denial, accounts from within the prison indicate that prisoners are being denied medical care for their injuries and are being forced to give false confessions against one another.

This is not the first time guards have attacked prisoners at Evin. In 2021, a leaked CCTV video showed guards assaulting a prisoner who collapsed and was dragged away by the arms.

The ongoing abuses at Evin Prison reflect the challenges faced by the Iranian government as it continues to battle the biggest threat to its legitimacy since the founding of the Islamic Republic in 1979.

On September 9, 2022, the US Treasury Department added him, along with the Ministry of Intelligence, to its sanctions list due to his involvement in cyber activities targeting the United States and its allies.

Shortly after this, Khatib was subject to another round of US sanctions on September 22, 2022. Alongside Iran’s Morality Police and its senior leaders, he was added to the US Treasury’s list of individuals for “being a person acting on behalf of the Government of Iran who is responsible for or complicit in, ordering, controlling, or otherwise directing, the commission of serious human rights abuses against persons in Iran or Iranian citizens or residents, or the family members of the foregoing, on or after June 12, 2009.”

He had been a vocal critic of the 2009 Green Movement protests, labeling them as "sedition" and praising the Islamic Republic's crackdown on dissent.

The Iranian Green Movement, led by Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, emerged after Iran's 2009 presidential election and continued until early 2010. Protesters demanded the removal of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad from office, alleging that the election results were fraudulent.

Born in 1961, Khatib was a founding member of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) intelligence organization during the early 1980s. In 1991, he was appointed head of the Intelligence Office in Qom, operating under the alias Esmail Vaezi.

Following his tenure in Qom, Khatib was appointed head of security for Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of Iran, in the city. He later moved to the judiciary, where he led the Judiciary’s Protection and Intelligence Center from 2012 to 2019.

Khatib’s tenure as minister of intelligence

Khatib was appointed Minister of Intelligence in August, 2021, under late President Ebrahim Raisi's administration. His leadership has seen a significant increase in the Ministry's budget, which he claims has enhanced Iran’s ability to counter Israel. He also boasted about dismantling what he described as a "Mossad infiltration network" responsible for assassinations and sabotage within Iran.

In spite of the massive budget, however, on July 31, following the new president's inauguration, Ismail Haniyeh, the head of Hamas' political bureau, was assassinated in Tehran.

Khatib attributed the attack to Israel, though Israel has not claimed responsibility, claiming it was carried out with US approval. Tehran continues to promise a harsh retaliation for the brazen attack on Iranian soil as global powers attempt to mediate.

Khatib has also addressed the threat posed by a "wandering ISIS" following the decline of the group in Syria, asserting that Iran's security agencies have successfully contained this danger.

"After the events in Syria subsided, we naturally faced a wandering ISIS that was directed toward us," he said last month, adding that "with the strategic planning of security agencies and the synergy developed within the security community, this threat was contained.

On January 3, during the fourth anniversary of the death of former IRGC commander Qasem Soleimani, two explosions in the southern city of Kerman resulted in 91 deaths and over 200 injuries. Khatib admitted to the failure of local security measures in what was the worst terror attack in the history of the Islamic Republic.

Following the explosions, Khatib said, "Despite all the efforts and actions of the Kerman provincial authorities and the members of the Provincial Security Council, we witnessed this tragic disaster and enemy plot, which caused us great embarrassment before the leader and the people."

In addition to crackdowns on dissidents, throughout his tenure, Khatib has repeatedly issued threats against Iran International, for reflecting news and views critical of the Islamic government. In November 2022, amid widespread protests in Iran, Khatib labeled the network a "terrorist organization" and warned that its journalists would be pursued by Iranian intelligence.

He reiterated these threats in September 2023, stating that Iran would take action against the network "whenever and wherever it deems necessary," despite international support for the media outlet.

Last year, the London offices of the network were forced to temporarily relocate to Washington as British security agency MI5 said it and the police services could no longer guarantee the safety of the staff.

Pouria Zeraati, the television host of the "Last Word" program on Iran International, was attacked by a group of unidentified individuals as he exited his residence in London in March as the threat continues.

While the motive is unclear, the attack came just a few months after a plot by the Iranian regime to kill 2 other Iran International journalists was revealed.

The Mission said Sunday that the US election is a domestic issue and dismissed the reports as “lacking credibility.”

Despite the denials, the Trump campaign has said that its internal communications, including sensitive vice-presidential vetting files, were hacked in a breach they believe was orchestrated by Iranian hackers.

The revelation emerged after Politico received emails from an anonymous source containing documents from within Trump’s operation, raising serious concerns about the security of the 2024 presidential election.

The Trump campaign quickly pointed to “foreign sources hostile to the United States,” linking the breach to a report by Microsoft that identified Iranian hackers as responsible for targeting a high-ranking official in a US presidential campaign.

While Microsoft did not name the specific campaign, the timing and nature of the attack suggest that Iran is once again leveraging its cyber capabilities to disrupt American politics.

On Friday, the US announced a $10 million reward for information leading to the identification or whereabouts of six Iranian government hackers accused of carrying out cyberattacks on U.S. water utilities last fall. The State Department emphasized its commitment to tracking down these suspects and holding them accountable.

Tehran’s cyber warfare strategy has evolved into a sophisticated operation aimed at undermining the political process and sowing chaos.

This latest incident is not an isolated case but part of a series of aggressive moves by Iranian cyber actors, including groups linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), to infiltrate and influence US elections.

Microsoft’s report highlighted several Iranian cyber groups, including Storm-2035 and Sefid Flood, which have been preparing for influence operations that could incite violence and erode public trust in the electoral process. The breach involving the Trump campaign is just one example of how Tehran’s cyber forces are targeting American institutions.

This hacking incident echoes the 2020 election cycle when Iranian operatives attempted to intimidate voters and spread disinformation. The Islamic Republic’s ongoing efforts to target US political figures and campaigns are widely viewed as part of a broader strategy to retaliate for the US killing of former IRGC Quds Force Commander Qasem Soleimani in 2020.

The timing of the Trump campaign breach is particularly alarming as it coincides with escalating threats from Iran against former President Trump. Recent reports suggest that Iran is actively plotting to assassinate Trump in revenge for Soleimani’s death.

The documents obtained by the hackers, including a 271-page vetting file on Vice Presidential candidate J.D. Vance, reveal sensitive internal deliberations that Tehran could exploit to further its agenda. The implications of this breach extend beyond the Trump campaign, posing a direct threat to the integrity of the 2024 presidential election.

Iran’s cyber operations are not confined to the US. The Iranian government has expanded its reach globally, with hacker groups like MuddyWater targeting governments and private entities in countries such as Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and India. These operations are part of a broader effort by Tehran to extend its influence and disrupt its adversaries on multiple fronts.

The US government has responded with sanctions and indictments against Iranian cyber actors, but these measures have done little to deter Tehran’s ongoing aggression.

The list published by the official news agency IRNA reveals that despite Pezeshkian’s promises to include non-Shia ministers in his cabinet, there are no Sunni ministers among the proposed nominees. However, he has included a woman, Farzaneh Sadegh, as the candidate for the Ministry of Roads and Transportation. The average age of the proposed cabinet members is 60, which contrasts with Pezeshkian’s earlier commitment to forming a “young” cabinet.

Some reformists say the make-up of Pezeshkian’s proposed cabinet has hugely disillusioned them.

“Pezeshkian has failed in his first test, except in a few cases [where his nominees are acceptable],” former reformist lawmaker Parvaneh Salahshouri tweeted. She contended that the nominees were chosen under the pressure of others who "demanded a share" and those who “openly interfered” instead of their qualifications and expertise and the advice of the council that was formed to choose the best. “Global experience has shown that such governments are short-lived," she wrote.

“There is not a gap but a deep abyss between the cabinet presented by Mr. Pezeshkian and what was expected from his cabinet. But I’m still hopeful [because] I didn’t vote for Pezeshkian for an ideal cabinet or progress and evolvement,” the prominent reformist pundit Sadegh Zibakalam posted on X, adding that he had only voted for Pezeshkian to stop hardliners and ultra-hardliners who call themselves ‘revolutionaries’ from driving all others out and “purification” of the political establishment.

The relevant committees of the hardline-dominated Parliament will scrutinize the eligibility and qualifications of each proposed candidate. Following this review, the ministers will be invited to defend their programs on the floor before facing a vote of confidence.

Pezeshkian has nominated Abdolnaser Hemmati, the former governor of Iran's Central Bank and a presidential candidate in 2021 backed by some reformists, as the Minister of Economy. Hemmati has previously criticized the government’s economic performance over the past three years, yet during his tenure, the Central Bank implemented inflationary policies that severely devalued the national currency, the rial.

For the position of oil minister, Pezeshkian has chosen Mohsen Pakzad, who previously served as deputy oil minister under Hassan Rouhani.
Pezeshkian has also reinstated Abbas Aliabadi, who served as energy minister in Raisi’s administration, to address the significant challenges related to energy shortages, including electricity.

Veteran economist and former reformist lawmaker Ahmad Meydari has been nominated by Pezeshkian to head the Ministry of Labor. Meydari, who appeared as Pezeshkian’s economic adviser during the election debates, may face substantial opposition from the Parliament.

Esmail Khatib, the US-designated minister of intelligence during Ebrahim Raisi’s administration, has been proposed as Pezeshkian’s intelligence minister. Khatib has strong connections with the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) intelligence organization, having held various high-ranking positions there early in his career.

A political analyst in Tehran told Iran International that Pezeshkian’s proposed list seems to be a “compromise cabinet,” with concessions made in key ministries such as interior, intelligence, education, sports, Islamic guidance, and energy.

These concessions may be intended to secure a vote of confidence for pro-reform ministers proposed for foreign affairs, labor, economy, communications, and health, thereby maintaining support from his reformist base.

For the health ministry, Pezeshkian has selected Dr. Mohammad-Reza Zafarghandi, the outspoken reformist Chairman of Iran's non-governmental Medical Council, known for his advocacy and regulatory work of the Council.

Brigadier General Aziz Nasirzadeh, currently the deputy chief of the Armed Forces’ General Staff, has been nominated for the position of defense minister. Pezeshkian has also put forward Brigadier General Eskandar Momeni, a former deputy chief of the Law Enforcement Forces, as the candidate for interior minister. This choice has sparked concern among some reformists who are wary of appointing a military figure to the interior ministry.

At least one ministerial position has been allocated to a close ally of Parliament Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf. Former lawmaker Ahmad Donyamali, who served as Ghalibaf’s deputy in Tehran Municipality, has been nominated for the role of Minister of Sports.

Sattar Hashemi, one of the younger nominees in the proposed cabinet, is slated to lead the Ministry of Communications. If confirmed by the Parliament, he will face the daunting task of addressing internet filtering, a key issue Pezeshkian pledged to resolve during his campaign.