Iran appears close to escalating the ongoing conflict with Israel into a full-blown regional war, with Israeli media reports pointing to an imminent attack on Israel despite earlier assessments that Tehran might be reconsidering the plan.
Since the July 31 assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, Iran has been threatening to avenge his death by attacking Israel. However, media reports over the past few days pointed to internal disagreements in Iran over the dangerous escalation. There were also reports that Iran is thinking twice, following pressures by the Biden administration.
However, Israel's updated intelligence assessment is that Iran has decided to avenge Haniyeh's killing by launching a direct attack on Israel, which could happen within days, a Sunday report by Axios said citing informed sources.
"This is a change from the assessment of the last few days, which suggested that international pressure on Iran was restraining it from carrying out a direct attack against Israel," the report said.
The assassination of Haniyeh has become a flashpoint in the already volatile region. While Israel has neither confirmed nor denied its involvement, both Iran and Hamas have blamed Israel for the killing. This accusation has fueled fears that the conflict between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip could spiral into a wider war, dragging other regional players into the fray.
The Israeli public broadcaster, Kann News, reported on Sunday that the prevailing understanding within the Israeli security establishment is that Iran is "determined to launch an attack soon."
While the attack's timing is not yet clear, the Axios report says it may happen before August 15, when talks were supposed to be held between Hamas and Israel over a ceasefire and the release of Israeli hostages.
However, Hamas said in a statement on Sunday it refuses to participate in the hostage deal negotiations on August 15.
Hamas's statement is "a tactical move ahead of a possible attack by Iran and Hezbollah and in an attempt to get better terms for the deal," an Israeli official told Axios. "If Hamas won't come to the table, we will continue decimating their forces in Gaza."
The Hezbollah factor
Adding to the tension is the involvement of Hezbollah, Iran's proxy in Lebanon. According to a CNN report, Israeli intelligence believes that Hezbollah may launch an attack on Israel as early as August 12, with Iran possibly following up with a second wave of strikes shortly thereafter.
Despite suffering heavy losses in the ongoing conflict, including nearly 400 fighters and commanders killed by Israeli strikes, Hezbollah has shown no signs of backing down. In fact, the group whose senior military commander Fuad al-Shukr was recently assassinated by the IDF has only intensified its attacks on northern Israel, expanding its list of targets to include towns that had previously been spared.
Israel's preparedness
In an unusual public statement, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) spokesperson clarified that despite the recent reports regarding Iran’s plans, there has been no change in the directives from the Home Front Command. However, the IDF and other security establishments remain on high alert, closely monitoring developments in Iran and Hezbollah.
Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, speaking to new IDF troops, issued a stern warning on Sunday: "Whoever will harm us in a way that he has not acted in the past, is also likely to get hit by us in a way that we have not acted in the past. These are things we don't want but we need to prepare for them, and they may happen."
Tehran's dangerous game
Despite the warnings and ongoing diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the situation, Iran seems determined to press ahead with its plans. According to an exclusive report by Iran International, President Masoud Pezeshkian recently met with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to plead against direct military action on Israel, warning of catastrophic retaliation that could cripple Iran's already fragile economy. Yet, Khamenei appears undeterred, signaling a willingness to risk economic collapse and potential downfall in pursuit of his regional agenda.
This latest development marks a dangerous shift from the shadow war that has characterized Iran-Israel relations for years to open confrontation. On the evening of April 13, Iran launched an unprecedented assault on Israel, deploying over 300 cruise and ballistic missiles, along with drones; however, almost all of them were intercepted by a US-led coalition. Israel's response was swift and decisive, targeting a military base in Isfahan on April 19, a clear demonstration of its capability and willingness to retaliate against Iranian aggression.
However, the Israeli intelligence community's assessment confirms threats by Iranian military officials that Tehran's new strike will be "harsher" than the April attack.
Zarif revealed that of the 19 ministers introduced, only three were the first choices recommended by the steering committee responsible for candidate selection. He noted that ten of the proposed ministers were not on the council's list at all.
Zarif's resignation underscores his frustration with the process, lamenting that he was unable to implement the expert opinions of the committees formed to find the best possible candidates or fulfill his promises to include women, youth, and ethnic groups in the cabinet.
"I am not satisfied with the outcome of my work and I am ashamed that I could not achieve the expert opinion of the committees and the inclusion of women, youth, and ethnic groups as I had pledged," Zarif stated in his post. He further announced his intent to return to academia, apologizing to the Iranian people for his inability to navigate the complexities of domestic politics.
Zarif’s resignation has intensified scrutiny and criticism of Pezeshkian's cabinet choices. Azar Mansouri, head of the Reform Front, also condemned the proposed cabinet, remarking that "One should not expect miracles from this government, especially considering that more than 80% of the country's power is in the hands of other entities."
Pezeshkian’s cabinet: old faces, old problems
Pezeshkian's list of proposed ministers, sent to Parliament for approval, has drawn criticism for being a step backward. The cabinet, with an average age of 59.7 years, contradicts Pezeshkian’s earlier promise that 60% of the ministers would be under 50. In reality, only two ministers fall into this category, leading to widespread disappointment among those who expected a younger, more dynamic government.
Abbas Araghchi, introduced as the Minister of Foreign Affairs, served as the deputy to Zarif during Hassan Rouhani's presidency, playing a key role in the nuclear negotiations with the West. Meanwhile, Esmail Khatib, nominated as the Minister of Intelligence, has a negative record, including the explosion in Kerman on the death anniversary of former IRGC commander Qasem Soleimani in January, which resulted in hundreds of casualties, as well as the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran.
The inclusion of figures like Abdolnaser Hemmati, former Central Bank head and 2021 presidential candidate, as Minister of Economy, further underscores the lack of new blood in the cabinet.
According to an investigation by Iran International, 11 of Pezeshkian’s proposed ministers have previously served in the administrations of Raisi and Rouhani. This recycling of political figures suggests a continuation of the same policies that have led Iran into its current state of crisis.
Alireza Kazemi, proposed as the Minister of Education, is another controversial choice. Kazemi, the brother of the IRGC Intelligence Chief, has a background in seminary teaching and drug control, raising concerns about his relevance to the education ministry.
Reformist discontent and Khamenei’s influence
The proposed cabinet has drawn sharp criticism from reformists, who are dismayed by the inclusion of several conservative ministers from the Raisi administration.
Rahmatollah Bigdeli, a member of the Government’s Strategic Council, pointed out that the most important ministries have been handed over to 'Principlists,' indicating a consolidation of hardline power.
Political activist Abdollah Ramezanzadeh criticized the nomination of Eskandar Momeni as Minister of the Interior, stating, "The worst periods for the Ministry of Interior in the past 46 years have been when military personnel were in charge." This sentiment reflects broader concerns about the increasing militarization of Iran’s government.
Political analyst Reza Alijani highlighted the pervasive influence of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei over the selection of ministers, noting that the Ministry of Interior, Ministry of Intelligence, and Ministry of Foreign Affairs are all critical points that Khamenei has secured for his loyalists. This observation underscores the limited autonomy Pezeshkian has in forming his government, with Khamenei’s shadow looming large over the process.
A cabinet under fire
The discontent surrounding Pezeshkian’s cabinet is palpable. Reformists are particularly upset by the absence of Sunni representation and the inclusion of only one woman among the proposed ministers.
Political activist Ahmad Zeidabadi pointed out that the cabinet "has two or three fundamental flaws," but if Pezeshkian believes he can work with these choices, "there is no reason for us to be more royalist than the king."
Pro-reform activist and former MP Parvaneh Salahshouri was even more direct, writing on X that Pezeshkian "has failed his first test except in a few cases." This sentiment was echoed by other reformist activists, who had warned Pezeshkian before the cabinet announcement that his selections were problematic.
Javad Emam, spokesperson for the Reform Front, criticized the continued dominance of military and paramilitary forces in Iranian politics, questioning the point of holding elections if the outcome remains unchanged.
"Ultimately, the President is responsible for his cabinet, and no lobbyist or imposing figure will take responsibility for the government. So, while there is time, reconsider," Emam urged Pezeshkian.
Even Shahram Dabiri, Pezeshkian’s Parliamentary Deputy, acknowledged the influence of Khamenei in the cabinet formation, writing on X that Pezeshkian had clearly stated that the cabinet members would be selected with Khamenei's opinion and approval.
A government of crisis
Political analyst Rouhollah Rahimpour summed up the situation by stating that Pezeshkian is starting his government with three major crises: political-security, social, and regional. The challenges facing this new administration are immense, and with a cabinet that appears to be more of the same rather than a harbinger of change, the prospects for meaningful reform in Iran look increasingly bleak.