Iran’s future FM says nuclear deal broken, favors military-diplomatic path

Iranian government supporters have attributed the wait to Iran's attempt at psychological warfare while others have suggested it is a means to determine the most effective form of response.

But while the fear and anxiety across the Middle East is not something to be taken lightly, Israelis and Iranians have eased some of their tensions with memes and jokes on social media.

Simcha Brodsky, a host for Open Source Intel, mocked the mixed messaging on the exact timing of the 'imminent' attack. He wrote on X, "Iran will attack in 24 hours...Iran will attack at 10 PM on Monday...Iran won't attack, but Hezbollah will.'

Lebanese-Israeli activist Jonathan Elkhoury, who fled Southern Lebanon 20 years ago as a child because of the persecution of Christians under Hezbollah, posted a video to Instagram after an X account reportedly linked to Iran posted an hourglass with the caption "2:00."

Many social media users were left perplexed by the meaning of "2:00." Elkhoury jokingly asked if that was AM or PM and which time zone was meant by the tweet.

Some Iranian social media users responded that it's 2am Iran time because that's the only time to "beat Tehran traffic."

Holly Dagres, a non-resident senior fellow with the Atlantic Council, said dark humor is a way for people in the Middle East to work through adversity.

"For Westerners, gallows humor doesn’t often translate and can often be seen as not politically correct because how can someone laugh at a matter that has serious implications, including war," she said.

"But for Middle Easterners who have experienced so much turmoil through wars, coups, and revolutions, it’s a way to keep themselves sane in a time of fear and uncertainty."

Meir Javedanfar, an Iranian-Israeli lecturer and author joked that "Iranians are always fashionably late", referring to the time now passing since the brazen assassination on July 31.

Another reason, he wrote, was that the country's leaders "prefer to go holidaying and partying in Dubai and Antalya".

However, Iran's inaugural direct attack on Israel which followed an alleged Israeli airstrike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus in April, happened thirteen days after the event which killed two senior IRGC commanders and several other senior figures.

Jonathan Harounoff, an Israel-Iran expert and author of the upcoming book 'Unveiled: Inside Iran's #WomanLifeFreedom Revolt', said that jokes aside, the threats from Tehran are being taken seriously.

"Israel -- and the Iranian people -- know all too well by now that the gerontocratic elite in Tehran favor a foreign policy centered on Israel's demise far more than focusing on the country's socio-economic woes," he said.

This week, Iran branded warnings from France, Britain, and Germany against attacking Israel as "illogical and excessive," asserting that it “doesn't need permission to retaliate" for the killing of the Hamas political chief in Tehran.

On Monday, John Kirby, the White House national security spokesman, told reporters “[the attack] could happen as soon as this week".

The assassination in Tehran, which Israel has not claimed responsibility for, has since led to the arrest of dozens in Iran as questions are raised as to how the security breach allowed the killing in the bedroom Haniyeh and his bodyguard were sleeping in.

The Iran-aligned militia fired projectiles aimed at a US airbase situated within a strategic gas field in Syria's Deir Ezzor on Tuesday. According to Reuters, citing US officials, the projectiles failed to strike the intended target.

According to Iran International sources, the rockets were launched from the western bank of the Euphrates, where Iran-backed militias are stationed. The rockets fired were of the Katyusha type and short-range Iranian-made missiles.

The projectiles fell near the base, triggering an immediate artillery response from the US-led coalition. However, the Biden administration has notably refrained from a more extensive retaliation against Iran-backed groups, aiming to de-escalate tensions in the Middle East, while subtly signaling to Tehran to avoid retaliatory measures over the recent killing of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran.

On Tuesday, President Joe Biden expressed confidence that Iran would refrain from striking Israel, contingent on the successful negotiation of a Gaza ceasefire in the coming days.

In a related development, the Pentagon disclosed on Tuesday that eight US service members sustained injuries during a drone assault on a base in Syria last week, marking the first official release of casualty figures from the incident.

Pentagon spokesperson Air Force Major General Patrick Ryder later informed reporters that three injured personnel had already resumed their duties. The eight service members were treated for traumatic brain injury and smoke inhalation.

Concurrently, Iran International has reported a serious escalation in the Deir Ezzor region in Syria, where Iran-backed tribal forces launched assaults on positions held by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). The intensifying conflict underscores the volatile dynamics in the region as the Syrian regime and its Iranian allies endeavor to reassert control over territories held by the SDF and close to US forces.

The US initially moved troops into Syria to combat the rise of the Islamic State, a militant group that once controlled vast territories across the region. Today, the presence of approximately 900 US troops in Syria, alongside 2,500 in neighboring Iraq, continues to underscore their mission to support local forces in preventing any resurgence of this extremist threat, ensuring the group remains diminished.

Their skepticism proved to be well placed when on August 11 President Masoud Pezeshkian unveiled the names of his proposed ministers and only one woman was on the list.

Four Iranian women's rights activists and academics—media activist Tahmineh Ardakani, sociologists Fatemeh Sadeghi, Fatemeh Alamdar, and Bahareh Arvin—discussed the state of gender equality recently hosted by the Free-Thinking School, a civil society institute in Tehran that has been facilitating political debates on YouTube.

Tahmineh Ardakani expressed optimism, stating that the election of Massoud Pezeshkian as Iran's new president could potentially reduce gender inequality in both society and the cabinet.

However, Fatemeh Sadeghi challenged this view, arguing that the gender divide in Iran is a broader social and political issue, not just a problem for women. She emphasized that women's political power, street violence against women over hijab, and issues like women's sports need to be societal priorities. Sadeghi also criticized previous reformist and moderate governments for their inaction, pointing out that they often blamed conservatives for blocking progress while admitting they had no intention of taking action themselves. She expressed skepticism about the current administration's ability to enact meaningful change, likening the cabinet's steering committee to a council of elders out of touch with the younger generation's demands.

Another sociologist, Fatemeh Alamdar, highlighted that gender inequality is not unique to Iran, citing a UN study indicating that nine out of ten people worldwide hold outdated views on gender roles. She noted that women in Iran face significantly greater economic and political disparities than in many other countries, with Iran ranking low on the World Economic Forum's gender gap index. Despite this, she pointed out that Iranian women are well-educated, with one in three Ph.D. holders being female, leading to high expectations for their social standing.

Alamdar said that women's economic participation is one sixth of men's contribution to economic activities. On the other hand, even in developing countries, women hold four times more seats in their parliaments than Iranian women. Based on the World Economic Forum, in terms of gender gap Iran, Chad, Algeria, Afghanistan are at the bottom of the world list. The inequality between men and women in these countries is far wider than the rest of the world.

Bahareh Arvin, another Iranian academic and sociologist said that a large part of the society did not care about the presidential election. Some probably decided not to vote as they did not hear any positive promises during the campaigns. She said in order to prioritize actions we need to see if poverty or unemployment affects women more than problems [like hijab and inequality] that are solely women's problems.

In a relevant development about women's role in the government, former lawmaker Parvaneh Salahshouri told Rouydad24 website that even the Vice President for Women's Affairs said that women who are appointed to that post lack executive powers. Ms. Salahsouri suggested that a Women's Organization need to be established in Iran to uphold women's rights. She questioned the mechanism to select the state officials mainly from among men and said that women in Saudi Arabia are in a better position in this regard compared to Iranian women.

According to three independent sources in Iran, who have chosen to remain anonymous due to the sensitive nature of the topic, the Islamic Republic is advancing its secret nuclear weapons program by restructuring the Organization of Defensive Innovation and Research (SPND), retaining Mohammad Eslami as the head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, and resuming tests to produce nuclear bomb detonators.

For years, US intelligence agencies consistently stated in their annual reports that Iran “isn’t currently undertaking the key nuclear weapons development activities necessary to produce a testable nuclear device". However, in the Director of National Intelligence’s 2024 report, released in July, that phrase was omitted. Instead, the report stated that Iran has “undertaken activities that better position it to produce a nuclear device, if it chooses to do so.”

The newly obtained information shows the Islamic Republic has intensified its efforts to complete the nuclear weapons production cycle, including high-level uranium enrichment, the production of nuclear detonation devices, and the development of missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads.
Restructuring SPND.

Less than a month before Ebrahim Raisi's death, the Iranian Parliament passed a bill to formalize the Organization of Defensive Innovation and Research (SPND) as an independent entity. Originally established in 2010 as a subsidiary of the Ministry of Defense, SPND was restructured under this new legislation, enacted just a week before Raisi's passing.
Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, a prominent figure in Iran's military nuclear program, previously led SPND.

Fakhrizadeh was assassinated in November 2020 near Tehran, an act attributed to Mossad. The new law has granted SPND financial independence, exempting it from the oversight of the National Audit Office, essentially allowing it to operate without accountability for its budget.

The law also states that SPND will be governed according to a statute issued by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. This restructuring of SPND is significant as it provides the organization with unique autonomy, allowing it to continue the legacy of Fakhrizadeh's work, particularly in producing nuclear detonation devices

SPND’s role in Iran’s nuclear program
On January 20, the Islamic Republic used a solid-fuel, three-stage satellite carrier named Qaem-100, developed by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), to launch a satellite called Sorayya into orbit. The move drew condemnation from Germany, Britain, and France, who issued a joint statement claiming that the Qaem-100 missile uses long-range ballistic missile technology.

Since the US withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), Iran has increased its uranium enrichment purity levels to 60% and has accumulated enough enriched uranium to potentially produce several nuclear bombs in a short period of time. The capability to build a nuclear weapon involves a complex cycle with three essential components: highly enriched uranium, the construction of a detonator, and the development of a delivery system capable of carrying a nuclear warhead.

Sources indicate that Tehran’s efforts to launch IRGC satellites are part of its plan to develop missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads. SPND, on the other hand, continues to work on the production of another crucial component of Iran's nuclear program: the development of nuclear detonators. This project reportedly continued covertly under the guise of "Project 110" after the 2003 exposure of "Project Amad."

Documents reveal that after 2003, Tehran continued to work on neutron initiators for nuclear warheads at the Abadeh site, where previous detonator tests had been conducted. According to sources, SPND began a project named "Metfaz" at the Abadeh facility in 2011, involving one of the three key figures of Iran's current military nuclear program. The Islamic Republic had previously claimed that this program was halted.
A photo from 2018 shows that Tehran was testing the explosive detonators needed for nuclear warheads during the two years leading up to that date, a time when the JCPOA was still in effect.

Saeed Borji’s role
Saeed Borji, an explosives and metals expert from Malek Ashtar University, affiliated with the Ministry of Defense, has been instrumental in Tehran's nuclear weapons program. For a time, he operated under the guise of a company named Azar Afrouz Saeed Engineering Company, which claimed to manufacture spherical tanks for the petrochemical industry.

When Mossad stole Iran's nuclear documents in 2018, Tehran realized that the Abadeh site had been exposed and immediately demolished it, as satellite images confirm. According to exclusive information obtained by Iran International, Saeed Borji has recently resumed his activities under the cover of a company named Arvin Kimia Abzar, claiming to be involved in the petrochemical industry.

In September 2022, Borji transferred part of his shares in this company to the Center for the Growth of Advanced Defense Technology Units, affiliated with SPND. His partner, Akbar Motallebizadeh, who previously served as an advisor to Mohsen Fakhrizadeh and the head of SPND’s "Shahid Karimi" group, has also played a significant role in these activities.

Both Saeed Borji and Motallebizadeh, who are currently under US sanctions, are overseeing the development of nuclear detonators under the supervision of General Reza Mozaffarinia. Mozaffarinia, the former president of Malek Ashtar University and former deputy for industrial research at the Ministry of Defense, has been the successor to Mohsen Fakhrizadeh at SPND for the past three years. He has been a part of Iran's nuclear weapons program for many years.

An informed source within the Ministry of Defense told Iran International that the formation of the independent SPND organization with its own budget and without oversight is a crucial part of the Islamic Republic's nuclear weapons program.

Why did Pezeshkian keep Eslami in charge? 
The program has another key player. Earlier this week, Masoud Pezeshkian, Iran’s new president, retained Mohammad Eslami as the head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran. Eslami is a pivotal figure in Iran's nuclear weapons program who is very different from previous heads of the Atomic Energy Organization.

Between 1987 and 1989, Eslami managed a sensitive mission as the deputy head of development projects at the Defense Industries Organization. He led a team sent by the Islamic Republic to Dubai for a secret meeting with Abdul Qadeer Khan, the Pakistani nuclear scientist who later admitted to transferring nuclear technology and enrichment equipment to Iran.

In one of the nuclear documents stolen from Iran, Eslami’s role is prominently featured. As the head of the Defense Industries Training and Research Institute, he had overseen all aspects of Iran’s military nuclear program, including Project Amad, which was supervised by Fakhrizadeh.

Eslami continued to serve as the deputy for industrial and research affairs at the Ministry of Defense for two years after the JCPOA was signed. According to sources within the 4 / 4Ministry of Defense and SPND, Eslami's retention was ordered by Khamenei to maintain the cohesion of the new three-member team leading Iran's military nuclear program.

Shifting to nuclear weapons for deterrence
A Western diplomat told Iran International that Iran's suspicious nuclear activities have raised concerns among the United States, Israel, and European countries. Following the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, the head of Hamas' political bureau in Tehran said the Islamic Republic's deterrence policy, which relied heavily on proxy forces, has lost its effectiveness, something Khamenei and other government officials are fully aware of.

This reality might have driven the Islamic Republic to consider pursuing another form of deterrence. On the day Pezeshkian presented his ministerial picks to the Parliament, Iranian lawmaker Mohammad-Reza Sabbaghian told the open session, "What logic or law dictates that arrogant powers should have nuclear weapons, but Iran should not?"

He added, "We call on the Supreme National Security Council to review the new circumstances and recommend to the Supreme Leader that, considering dynamic Islamic jurisprudence, the path be cleared for the development of nuclear weapons."

This could be the final, and perhaps most dangerous, arrow in Khamenei's quiver.

"That's my expectation," President Joe Biden told reporters when asked if a truce between Israel and Hamas could stave off an Iranian assault, adding that while negotiations were "getting hard" he was "not giving up".

Reuters earlier in the day quoted unnamed Iranian officials as saying that Iran, along with its allies such as Hezbollah, is prepared to launch a direct attack if the Gaza talks fail or if Israel is seen to be dragging out negotiations. However, the timeline for how long Iran would wait before responding remains unclear.

The assassination of Haniyeh, for which Iran blames Israel, has escalated tensions in the region. Although Israel has neither confirmed nor denied its involvement, the US has deployed additional military assets to the Middle East to bolster Israeli defenses. Amid rising fears of a broader Middle East conflict following the killings of both Haniyeh and Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr, Iran has engaged in intense dialogue with Western countries and the United States to manage the situation.

Iran has been threatening to launch a harsh retaliation against Israel that could lead to a regional war, but after two weeks of keeping the world in suspense no attack has taken place. In April, Tehran fired more than 300 missiles and drones at Israel in first such strike for an attack on its embassy compound in Damascus.

The Reuters report might be an indication that Tehran is withholding any retaliation expecting to receive diplomatic concessions in return. Some Iranian media and political figures began showing a more pragmatic stance a few days after Haniyeh's killing indicating the futility of military escalation.

US officials have been in discussions with allies to convince Iran to de-escalate tensions, with ceasefire talks expected to begin on Thursday in Egypt or Qatar. Despite these diplomatic efforts, Iran’s mission to the UN issued a statement expressing hope that any response to Haniyeh’s killing would be timed to avoid harming potential ceasefire talks. However, Iran's foreign ministry dismissed calls for restraint as contradictory to international law principles.

Iran's mission to the UN in New York told Reuters on Tuesday that Tehran would not have a representative present on the sidelines of the Gaza ceasefire talks. Two sources earlier told Reuters Iran was considering sending a representative to the ceasefire talks. However, they said the representative would not directly attend the meetings but would engage in behind-the-scenes discussions "to maintain a line of diplomatic communication" with the US while negotiations proceed.

The prospect of Iranian retaliation has kept both the US and Israel on high alert, with White House spokesperson John Kirby acknowledging that a retaliatory attack could occur as soon as this week, potentially impacting the ceasefire negotiations.

The potential ceasefire in Gaza presents a crucial moment for Iran, which may use it as cover for a more limited, symbolic response. This could allow Iran to fulfill its pledge of retaliation while avoiding a full-scale war that could further destabilize the region. Iran, which has not traditionally been involved in Gaza peace talks, is now considering a more active role, possibly through behind-the-scenes involvement rather than direct participation in the ceasefire negotiations.

According to the Iranian sources, Hezbollah and other allies may also launch their own responses to the killings of Haniyeh and Shukr, with Iran ready to support these actions. The details of what such support could entail remain unspecified. However, any Iranian response is expected to be more effective than previous actions, such as the missile barrage launched by Iran on April 13 following the killing of Iranian generals in Syria. That attack, which targeted Israeli airbases, was largely intercepted and did not achieve significant damage.

The situation remains highly volatile, with Tehran's reaction closely tied to the progress of the Gaza ceasefire talks and the broader regional dynamics influenced by the actions of Hezbollah, Iraq's militias, and Yemen's Houthis against Israel.