Iran escalates cyber campaign to disrupt US 2024 election

The latest findings from the state-run National Population Research Institute suggest that the average age of marriage for women has reached 24, while men are marrying at around 28 years old.

According to the head of the Institute, Mohammad-Javad Mahmoudi, the number of registered marriages in Iran has dropped dramatically since 2011,with almost half a million marriages registered – a fall from the peak of 891,627 marriages in 2010.

This downward trend has persisted despite repeated calls from Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei for policies to facilitate marriage and boost population growth.

The figures also suggest that the trend kickstarted the year international sanctions tightened their grip on the Iranian economy in 2011. At the end of that year, the US blocked oil importers from making payments through Iran's central bank and imposed measures that restricted Iran's access to foreign currencies. These sanctions were a response to Iran's defiance of international norms on nuclear weapons development, aiming to limit its nuclear proliferation potential and enforce global demands for transparency and accountability.

The figures also reveal that before the downward trend, there was a dramatic rise in the number of marriages in Iran with registrations soaring nearly ninefold from 152,411 to 891,627 between 1966 to 2010. This surge represents the highest recorded marriage rate in over fifty years.

Khamenei’s rhetoric on population growth has been matched by a series of laws and regulations designed to encourage young Iranians to marry and have children. However, these initiatives are being undermined by significant economic challenges, including the impacts of international sanctions that have made it increasingly difficult for many young Iranians to afford the costs of starting a family.

Iran observers often highlight that the country’s economic struggles are largely a consequence of sanctions imposed due to its support for regional terrorism and severe human rights abuses. The US and EU have targeted Iran for backing militant groups like Hezbollah and Hamas, as well as for its widespread suppression of political dissent and activism.

The decline in marriage rates also reflects a broader demographic shift in Iran. Over the past 57 years, the average age at which women first marry has risen by approximately five and a half years, while for men, it has increased by about three and a half years.

This delay in marriage, coupled with economic uncertainty, has also led to a decline in birth rates. In the first nine months of 2023, Iran experienced the lowest number of births in the past decade, intensifying worries about the country’s future population growth. Abortion rates have also been on the rise in recent years.

Mahmoudi also warned that the number of women of reproductive age will sharply decline after 2029. This is due to the government’s failure to capitalize on the peak reproductive years between 2010 and 2022. "We have not yet optimally utilized the 12-year period between 2010 and 2022, during which we had a peak in the number of women of reproductive age," Mahmoudi admitted.

These demographic challenges emerge as Khamenei has once again instructed government officials to eliminate barriers to population growth. On September 3, Health Minister Mohammad-Reza Zafarghandi announced that discussions had been held on population growth policies and that experts were tasked with addressing these issues.

The Rejuvenation of the Population and Protection of the Family (RPPF) law, enacted by the Iranian Parliament in 2021 under Khamenei’s directive, has yet to produce significant results. While the law imposes penalties for actions against childbearing and marriage, economic pressures on young Iranians continue to outweigh these measures.

In a recent effort to tackle the population decline, the Central Bank of Iran announced on September 1 that it will allocate 500 trillion rials (over $830 million) from bank deposits for marriage and childbearing loans. An investigation by Iran International, however, revealed that this funding will fall short of meeting the actual demand for these loans.

This underscores the inadequacy of the government's measures and its failure to address the crisis effectively. Despite the large financial commitment, the government's approach is criticized for not sufficiently addressing the needs of young Iranians and failing to mitigate the broader economic pressures contributing to the decline in marriage rates and birth rates.

Iran's population growth rate has thus sharply declined to 0.6 percent, down from 1.23% just two years ago and a significant drop from the 4.21% rate seen in 1984.

Despite this, the Supreme Leader appears bent on boosting the population to 150 million by 2050. The relentless pursuit of demographic growth, frequently at the expense of individual rights and well-being, according to many observers, highlights the Islamic Republic’s disregard for the health and rights of its citizens, especially women and children, in favor of ideological ambitions.

When Pezeshkian assumed office in late July, some observers hoped for shifts in the media landscape that would provide the new president with greater influence over public opinion.

Throughout the presidential campaign, Pezeshkian’s supporters frequently claimed that state TV’s coverage was biased in favor of his political rival, Saeed Jalili, whose brother oversees the network. When Pezeshkian participated in his first televised interview following the election, his supporters once again criticized the state TV presenters, accusing them of asking questions that reflected Jalili’s agenda rather than addressing the concerns of the nation.

Some observers suggested that Pezeshkian should have allowed the public to submit their questions via social media, which could then be passed on to the TV presenters. Instead, the two state TV hosts repeated the same questions from the campaign debates, seemingly in an attempt to suggest that Pezeshkian had nothing new to offer. However, in fairness to state TV, it’s worth noting that Pezeshkian does have a tendency to speak repetitively.

Centrist website Entekhab also suggested that the state TV does not represent public opinion. It also pointed out that the state TV's questions were too general, too dull and too insignificant. It also suggested that Pezeshkian should have invited independent journalists to ask questions that matter to the people.

Pezeshkian not only appears to be excluded from utilizing state TV as a vital link to the nation but is also hindered by Iran Daily, the administration’s official newspaper. Journalists in Tehran have noted that individuals appointed by Jalili's team during former President Raisi’s tenure remain in place, continuing to push their previous agenda, which works against Pezeshkian's efforts.

While state TV and Iran newspaper remain unable to advance Pezeshkian's messaging, his two spokespersons have also struggled to make an impact. Elias Hazrati, his news dissemination officer and the managing editor of the reformist Etemad newspaper, has faced criticism from journalists and others for accepting the role, raising questions about his alignment and effectiveness. As a result, Pezeshkian’s administration faces significant obstacles in effectively communicating its message to the public.

Iranian journalist Zeynab Esmaeili wrote in a post on X: "Elias Hazrati's decision to accept a government position has exposed a deeper crisis within the Iranian media. The fundamental principle that an independent media outlet should remain separate from government influence has been compromised. The involvement of media figures in government roles suggests that the spirit of criticism and independent journalism has been significantly weakened, raising concerns about the erosion of journalistic integrity and the freedom of the press in Iran."

The government spokeswoman Fatemeh Mohajerani, has yet to formally speak on behalf of the administration, but her two social media videos reveal her speaking style. While she is articulate, her delivery resembles that of a preacher or schoolteacher rather than a politician skilled in addressing sensitive issues transparently. Her use of flowery language and an overly dramatic tone detracts from the clarity needed in her role. Additionally, her promises in the videos suggest she's responsible for executing government plans rather than effectively conveying its messages in a clear and credible manner.

This situation reveals that the government is not fully established yet. Some of its officials such as the spokesperson and Peseshkian’s labor minister do not seem to be clear about the boundaries of their responsibilities and official mandate.

While Pezeshkian appears to manage domestic affairs, excluding areas under the Interior and Intelligence Ministries, foreign policy is largely in the hands of ex-foreign minister Javad Zarif's former team, Abbas Araghchi and Majid Takht Ravanchi, who answer directly to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Meanwhile, Pezeshkian faces a lack of effective media tools, compounded by attacks from hardline newspapers like Kayhan.

The group is focused on advocating for policies they believe will strengthen US national security and promote a tougher stance toward the government of Iran.

During his administration, Trump’s foreign policy, especially regarding the Middle East, was characterized by a strong opposition to Iran. His administration withdrew from the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in May 2019, also known as the Iran nuclear deal, and imposed strict sanctions against Iran.

Iranians for Trump supports these policies, viewing them as critical measures to counter Iran’s influence. The organization emphasizes Trump’s previous administration’s role in addressing issues related to Iran’s sponsorship of terrorism and its regional destabilizing activities, which the group argues threaten global security.

“While the Biden-Harris administration has struggled to effectively confront the threats posed by Iran’s regime, President Trump’s leadership is marked by unwavering commitment to safeguarding American national security and supporting the Iranian people in their struggle for freedom,” said Nasim Behrouz, Persian-language spokesperson for Iranians for Trump.

Iranians for Trump will focus on voter registration and advocacy to ensure that the Iranian-American community’s concerns, particularly regarding US foreign policy toward Iran, are considered by political leaders.

Sarah Raviani, the English-language spokesperson for the group, signaling the group' activism also in Congressional races added, “Our mission is to mobilize Iranian-American voters to support leaders who prioritize policies that protect US national security and promote democratic values both at home and abroad.”

According to figures from Iran’s High Council of Iranian Affairs Abroad in 2020, 47% of the Iranian diaspora (1,905,813 people) live in the Americas, with an estimated 1,500,000 living in the United States.

Meanwhile, according to data from the Migration Policy Institute citing tabulations from the US Census Bureau 2019 American Community Survey (ACS), the Iranian diaspora in the United States comprises more than 577,000 individuals born in Iran or reported Iranian ancestry.

Even considering the US Census Bureau, Iranian-American voters, have the potential to play a role in the November elections. While many Iran-Americans live in states like California and Texas, smaller but notable populations exist in swing states such as Virginia, Florida, Georgia, and Nevada.

Goodarzi, a resident of Porter, Texas, also known as Ron Goodarzi, faces charges of smuggling parts critical for unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and other manned aircraft from the United States to Iran, a move that officials say poses a direct threat to US national security.

According to Assistant Attorney General Matthew G. Olsen of the Justice Department’s National Security Division, Goodarzi, arrested last Friday, attempted to “For years, the defendant allegedly used proxy destinations to try to smuggle UAV components and other controlled technology to Iran, even concealing controlled items in his own luggage.”

Iran has long sought access to advanced technologies that could enhance its aerial combat capabilities and strengthen its influence across the Middle East, potentially endangering US allies in the region.

US Attorney Alamdar S. Hamdani for the Southern District of Texas emphasized that the prosecution is part of a broader commitment to enforcing sanctions and holding accountable individuals like Goodarzi.

“Smuggling aircraft parts into Iran endangers U.S. national security by potentially enhancing Iran's military capabilities, enabling them to advance their aerial combat potential, increase regional power and threaten U.S. allies and interests in the Middle East,” Hamdani stated, adding that such actions could advance Iran's regional power and threaten American interests.

Investigators uncovered a trove of evidence implicating Goodarzi, including emails with suppliers and customers acknowledging the difficulty of shipping parts to Iran due to sanctions.

Court documents reveal that from December 2020 through July 2023, Goodarzi illegally exported aircraft parts to Iran, often through Dubai. On several occasions, authorities searched his luggage and found aircraft parts hidden in clothing, some of which were consistent with components for UAVs and other sensitive applications.

Goodarzi, who lacks the required licenses to export such items to Iran, now faces up to 10 years in prison and a maximum fine of $250,000 if convicted.

His case forms part of a broader crackdown on Iranian smuggling networks, with US law enforcement targeting those attempting to supply Tehran with advanced military technology. Just weeks before Goodarzi’s arrest, the Department of Justice indicted two Iranian brothers and a Pakistani national for aiding Iran’s weapons program. In addition, Washing recently announced a $10 million reward for information on Iranian hackers linked to attacks on US infrastructure.

On August 14, the US Department of Justice also charged Jeffrey Chance Nader, a 68-year-old Iranian-American, with attempting to illegally export US aircraft parts to Iran.

Nader was arrested in California, and according to the indictment, he conspired with others to acquire and illegally export nearly three dozen aircraft components from the United States to Iran. Many of these parts are vital for the operation of military aircraft, such as the F-4 fighter jet, which is used by Iran's armed forces.

Despite these efforts, future prisoner swaps between the US and Iran raise concerns about the long-term impact of such prosecutions. In September 2023, a deal involving the transfer of $6 billion in Iranian funds and the release of five Iranians from US custody has prompted questions about whether legal actions like Goodarzi’s arrest will have lasting effects.

Among the Americans freed by Iran was Siamak Namazi, who spent nearly eight years imprisoned in Tehran's infamous Evin prison before his release. Meanwhile, an undisclosed number of dual-nationals remain detained in Iran on fabricated espionage charges, as the regime continues its practice of diplomatic hostage-taking.

On Ward Carroll's YouTube episode, titled 'Admiral Tells the Real Truth about battling the Houthis in the Red Sea," a US Navy commander from the Dwight D Eisenhower Carrier Strike Group, said he suggested more aggressive strikes on the Houthis, but reportedly he was told to avoid that by higher command.

The alleged instruction was to avoid large- scale counterstrikes against the Iranian proxy force due to "the balance of deterrence" with the Islamic Republic of Iran.

Rear Adm. Marc Miguez was the commander of the strike group during an eight-month deployment to the Red Sea that defended commercial ships. Iran International has reached out to Rear Adm. Miguez, the US Navy and US CENTCOM for comment and was not able to secure an interview in time for publication.

Miguez appeared to suggest during the podcast episode that they needed to take Iran's response into consideration.

"There are definite strategies that were put forward, but our National Command Authority decided that those - I would call more aggressive postures and more aggressive strikes - was not something we wanted to challenge," Miguez said during the interview with the YouTuber on August 26.

That aggressive posture does not align with the risk-aversion strategy the Americans appear to be taking when it comes to the Islamic Republic of Iran, with the Biden administration hesitant to challenge Tehran.

“We have a deterrence deficit with Iran. They have been attacking our forces. They have been attacking commercial vessels, with impunity since October 2023,” said Jason Brodsky, the policy director for United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI).

The root of the problem, said Brodsky, are US policy makers advocating for risk aversion.

From October 2023 to June 2024, Miguez told Carroll the carrier strike group launched seven deliberate, coordinated attacks with partners like the UK on Houthi targets. A couple of the strikes were integrated with the Air Force.

Because of all constant missile and drone attacks by the Houthis who even fired at US Navy vessels, the strike groups' destroyers ran out of anti-air missiles, taking them at least three days to reload, he said. 

While Israel targeted the Yemeni strategic port of Hodeida, after the Iran-backed rebels carried out a deadly drone attack in Tel Aviv in July, the Americans have limited their targets.

“Deterrence against the Houthis has failed, “said Brodsky.

“The United States is aiming at radars, drones, missile launchers and that kind of material without going after more strategic targets like the port of Hodeida that Israel bombed after the Houthis sent a drone that exploded in Tel Aviv," he added.

Are the Houthis winning and the US losing?

A former Royal Navy Commander, Tom Sharpe, wrote an article in the British news outlet Telegraph recently, alleging that the Houthis had defeated the US Navy.

Sharpe wrote that since January of 2024, Houthi attacks increased, and have added more to their arsenal, with the usual drones and cruise missiles now came hijackings and ballistic missiles.

"I understand the desire to not escalate with Iran which is why the Poseidon Archer strikes were focused and quite limited (especially when compared to current Israeli strikes in Yemen) even if I don’t entirely agree with it," wrote Sharpe in the Telegraph article.

The US Central Command said Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi rebels attacked two crude oil tankers - the Saudi-flagged Amjad and the Panama-flagged Blue Lagoon I - in the Red Sea on Monday with two ballistic missiles and a one-way attack uncrewed aerial system, hitting both vessels.

“There are no casualties onboard, and the vessel is proceeding to its next port of call,” British maritime authorities said at the time.

The Saudi shipping firm Bahri said on Tuesday its tanker Amjad was not targeted. The Houthis did not claim responsibility for that, although they admitted to attacking the Blue Lagoon.

Amid continued ship attacks by the Houthis in the Red Sea, Republican Senator Tom Cotton said on Tuesday "Joe Biden and Kamala Harris have ceded the Red Sea to Iranian-backed terrorists. Our enemies do not take the Biden-Harris administration seriously.”

Republican Senator Joni Ernst also weighed in, and said the “the Biden-Harris administration continues to turn a blind eye as the Iran-backed Houthis disregard the law and terrorize the Red Sea.”

The EU naval mission in the Red Sea announced Tuesday that the salvagers have abandoned attempts to tow away the burning oil tanker, Greek-flagged Sounion, which was attacked by Yemen’s Houthi rebels according to the Associated Press.

On August 29, Houthis rebels released a video showing them planting explosives aboard the Sounion, which had been abandoned after multiple attacks the prior week.

The footage then cuts to a long shot of the vessel as the explosives detonate, while the Houthis chant their slogan: “God is the greatest, death to America, death to Israel, curse the Jews, victory to Islam.”

Richard Golberg, a Senior advisor at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), said the White House's current course of action is obviously not working.

"There is an intelligence ship that the Iranians have, near the Red Sea that provides the targeting intelligence data to the Houthis to support all these attacks. We've never taken out that ship. That would seem to be an obvious next step in the escalation ladder."

Secretary of State Antony Blinken delisted the Houthis as both a foreign terrorist organization and as specially designated global terrorists in February 2021, as one of the first foreign policy acts of the Biden administration.

The White House said it was trying to make it easier to get food and humanitarian aid into Yemen. However, in the face of Houthi attacks, they re-enlisted them back on the specially designated list in 2024, though they are still not on the foreign terrorist list.

Goldberg said the Biden administration strongly believes that if Houthis have access to money and economic capital, they will hold back from serious attacks, and somehow become normalized in Yemeni society. He finds that theory to be nonsense.

“Either they're a terrorist organization or they're not. Either we’re going to treat them like we would treat a terrorist organization or we're going to treat them like some sort of negotiating partner. They're trying to do both at the same time,” said Golberg.