Iran has increased its activities at two nuclear sites that were key to its early nuclear weapons program two decades ago, according to a report by the Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS).
The report is based on satellite imagery given to the institute by Western intelligence officials, who say that in the past 18 months, Iranian experts who were involved in Iran’s weapons-related projects in the early 2000s have been back at work at two secret sites.
The two sites, Sanjarian and Golab Dareh, were “central” to Iran’s alleged attempts to develop and test devices and systems that could be used to build a nuclear weapon, the report says.
It’s unclear if the recent activities at these two sites are nuclear weapons-related. But there’s room for concern, the authors write, given Iran’s significant progress in uranium enrichment and its lack of transparency, as reported by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
US E3 warning
Earlier this week, the United States, Britain, France and Germany warned that Iran’s nuclear program could be referred to the United Nations security council within months if Tehran does not show more transparency to the UN nuclear watchdog.
The four Western powers accused Iran of failing to explain undeclared nuclear material and allow visits to alleged secret sites - activity the IAEA has said raises concern about the peaceful nature of Iran’s nuclear program.
“This board has shown considerable patience. But that patience has its limits, and we will not stand by while Iran continues to obfuscate,” they said in a joint statement at the Board of Governors meeting of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
'Further action'
“If Iran continues to fail to provide the necessary, full and unambiguous cooperation with the agency to resolve all outstanding safeguards issues, further action by this board will be necessary,” they added.
The statement cited the IAEA’s authority to act when a member state fails to demonstrate the peaceful nature of its nuclear activities and empowers it to refer the issue to the Security Council.
Iran maintains that its nuclear program is a peaceful scientific enterprise while top adversary Israel says Tehran seeks a bomb.
Tehran has been brought before the Security Council repeatedly from 2007 to 2010 and faced several resolutions condemning the program and expanding international sanctions.
JCPOA and its unmaking
After lengthy negotiations, Iran and the P5+1 (the five permanent UNSC members plus Germany) reached an agreement in 2015 in a deal by which restrictions and more rigorous inspections of its nuclear sites was agreed in exchange for sanctions relief.
That agreement fell apart in 2018 when the U.S. administration under Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew and reimposed sanctions.
Other signatories remained in the deal, but Iran scaled back its compliance and limited access to its sites, barring several IAEA inspectors from returning to the country.
IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi warned earlier this week that Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium is on the rise.
Iran’s nuclear breakout time—the time needed to produce enough 90% enriched uranium for a nuclear weapon—has likely shrunk to "one or two weeks”, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in July.
EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell underscored the bloc's resolute position on the issue, stating, "The European Union has repeatedly strongly cautioned Iran against transfers of ballistic missiles to Russia." He further mentioned that the EU would "respond swiftly and in coordination with international partners."
Borrell suggested that the EU’s response would likely include substantial new sanctions aimed at individuals and entities connected to Iran's ballistic missile and drone programs. This action comes on the heels of similar sanctions imposed earlier this week by France, Germany, and the UK.
The escalation follows US Secretary of State Antony Blinken's claim that Russia has received ballistic missiles from Iran, which could be deployed in Ukraine within weeks. In response, Iran denied these allegations and summoned the envoys of Britain, France, Germany, and the Netherlands, heightening the diplomatic standoff.
Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi reiterated Tehran's denial, stating on social media, "Once again, US and E3 act on faulty intelligence and flawed logic - Iran has NOT delivered ballistic missiles to Russia. Period - Sanction addicts should ask themselves: how is Iran able to make & supposedly sell sophisticated arms? Sanctions are NOT a solution, but part of the problem."
The situation reflects broader geopolitical tensions, with Iran, North Korea, and Russia increasingly coordinating in support of Moscow's war in Ukraine, according to British Foreign Secretary David Lammy. He noted this emerging "entente" on Wednesday, following the announcement of new Western sanctions against Iran.
This alliance is seen as part of a larger "axis of upheaval" that includes Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea, which the chief of Britain’s army warned in July could necessitate readiness for confrontation within the next three years.
Adding to the tensions, Reuters reported on Friday that Russia started manufacturing a new long-range attack drone last year using Chinese engines and components, which has already been deployed in the Ukraine conflict. According to sources from a European intelligence agency and documents reviewed by Reuters, this development underscores Russia’s continued efforts to bolster its military capabilities.
Meanwhile, Russia's FSB security service announced on Friday that it had revoked the accreditation of six British diplomats in Moscow, accusing them of espionage and sabotage, a move reflecting the Kremlin’s frustration with what it perceives as London’s significant role in supporting Ukraine.
These developments highlight the growing alignment between Iran, Russia, and North Korea against Western interests. Iran's potential pursuit of nuclear capabilities and Russia's aggressive military actions in Ukraine further exacerbate security threats on the global stage.