Mahsa Amini’s family under house arrest on anniversary of her death in Iran

The reported death toll of 550 protesters far exceeds the regime's claims of slain special forces and Basij members, whose actual number has never been officially disclosed. In some cases, slain protesters were misreported as Basij members. The protests did not target businesses or government institutions, except for police cars that fired on people.

The government managed to suppress the movement by arresting up to 22,000 individuals, using birdshot against protesters blinding many, killing children and teenagers. Vigilantes or government agents also deployed unexplained chemical substances against schools, sending thousands of teenagers to hospitals. The Mahsa movement, driven by anger from the 2017 and 2019 uprisings, saw the Islamic government and its auxiliaries respond with extreme measures, including kidnapping, killing, executing, and torturing its most defiant participants.

After two years of repression, rising tensions with Israel, and the removal of the Raisi administration, what is the current state of the “woman, life, freedom” movement? Is it in a coma, hibernation, or bubbling like lava under a volcano?

Desperation, despair, or hidden anger?

Iranian society exhibits signs of all three conditions: desperation, despair, and hidden anger. The migration of educated and skilled professionals, including doctors and nurses, has surged. The low voter turnout for Pezeshkian, a candidate promising more of Khamenei's policies, reflects a sense of desperation rather than hope.

In national strikes by oil, gas, and steel workers, as well as nurses, teachers, and retirees, the prevalent sentiment is one of despair over current conditions rather than active anger. Social media discussions also show less anger.

This suggests that the Mahsa movement's protesters have come to terms with the regime’s persistence and the improbability of overthrowing it through their current methods. Incidents like the murder of Armita Gravand killed during a confrontation with hijab enforcers, Arzoo Badri’s severe injury, the brutal killing of Mohammad Mir Mousavi, and numerous other acts of police brutality have failed to spark street protests, as government opponents have accepted the reality of their situation.

Disappointed but realistic society

A 2023 nationwide government survey, shared with select correspondents, reveals that 91.8 percent of people are dissatisfied with the country's current conditions and direction. While the failure of the Mahsa movement to overthrow the government is acknowledged, this does not imply that the populace has forgotten their demands or their dire situation. The survey also indicates that at least 30.2 percent of respondents view the current situation as irreparable under the Islamic Republic, suggesting that, despite the obstacles, they see regime change as the only path to improvement.

Two different kinds of hope

The 60.6 percent of people currently hoping for change, according to the government survey, differs from the 70 percent who supported reformist president Mohammad Khatami in 1996. Khatami's support stemmed from hopes for stability and economic relief after the upheaval of the revolution and the Iran-Iraq war. In contrast, today’s hope is not connected to the Pezeshkian administration. The current desire for reform focuses on substantial and real transformation. Given the failure of partial and gradual reforms over the past 45 years, many believe that meaningful change through such methods is no longer feasible and aim for a fundamental change in the role of the government and its treatment of citizens. The severe suppression of the Mahsa movement has further diminished hopes for realistic reform.

Obstacles to popular action

There are major obstacles that hinder the unification of the 60% seeking significant change with the 30% advocating for regime change.

Social activism among Iranians has given way to individualism because of the authoritarian nature of the Islamic system. The government is suspicious of non-religious activism, which is not under its control. While during sudden waves of protests crowds spontaneously congregate, organized opposition is rare. Security organs systematically crack down on any signs of organization and many opponents have turned to hopes of seeing a savior, or a major regional conflict or military attack that can topple the regime.

Even charity work has declined in the country, because of constant government crackdowns on independent NGOs.

The protests in 2017, 2019, and 2021 were triggered by specific events, such as the rise in gasoline prices and the killing of Mahsa Amini by the morality police. This suggests that societal movements are driven by immediate sparks and waves rather than a cohesive, long-term strategy to address Iran's decline. Additionally, effective leadership is lacking.

The underlying discontent within society is like lava beneath the surface, which is why the government has hesitated to again raise gasoline prices. However, the absence of independent organizations and media to channel this dissatisfaction into street protests has left society in a state of political inaction. The constant emigration of protesting youth further weakens the protest movement. The government neither has the means to address the brain drain and skilled labor emigration nor views it as a security threat. In some instances, interrogators even encourage detainees to emigrate.

“The reality of the peaceful objectives of Iran's nuclear industry … will be made clear to the world,” the head of Iran’s nuclear program, Mohammad Eslami, stated upon his arrival in Vienna for the 68th annual session of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) General Conference.

However, the partnership between Iran and Russia has triggered fresh concerns in Washington and London, particularly over Tehran’s supply of ballistic missiles to aid Moscow’s war effort in Ukraine.

In return, Russia is suspected of providing Iran with sensitive nuclear technology and intelligence, an exchange that has Western officials on edge as it risks pushing Iran closer to achieving its goal of developing nuclear weapons.

According to sources cited by Bloomberg, “the Kremlin has increased its cooperation with Iran over its ambitions to obtain atomic weapons in recent months", citing Western officials.

Western intelligence has identified increased cooperation between the two countries in recent months, raising alarms over the possibility that Russia is sharing nuclear expertise that could facilitate Iran’s weaponization of its atomic program.

The revelations were discussed during a meeting between British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and US President Joe Biden at the White House last week.

According to the Bloomberg article, one of “the most troubling” aspects of the partnership is the trade of ballistic missiles. Iran has provided Russia with Fath-360 missiles, short-range ballistic weapons that have been deployed against Ukrainian targets.

Despite reported inaccuracies in these missiles highlighted by a recent Business Insider report on their performance during a prior Iranian attack on Israel, they are still an addition to Russia’s military arsenal.

Iran’s missile shipments come at a time when Moscow is seeking to replenish its stockpiles in a war begun in 2022. The cooperation further deepens the ties between the two nations after Iran has provided drones to Russia to support its war on Ukraine.

The Russia-Iran alliance has forced Western powers to reassess their defense strategies, leading to renewed sanctions and diplomatic efforts aimed at curbing Tehran’s military support for Moscow.

UK newspaper, The Guardian, said the Kremlin has increased its cooperation with Iran over its ambitions to obtain atomic weapons in recent months, citing anonymous Western officials.

The Guardian report noted that the growing Russia-Iran military and nuclear cooperation poses a “direct threat” not only to the West but also to Israel, which views Iran’s nuclear advancements as an existential danger.

It also pointed out that Tehran’s partnership with Moscow has sparked fears in Jerusalem that Iran could soon possess the capability to develop and deploy nuclear weapons. With Iran also backing militant groups like Hezbollah and Hamas on Israel's borders, its nuclear ambitions raise concerns about destabilizing the Middle East more, added the piece.

The Islamic Republic has long maintained that its nuclear activities are for “civilian purposes,” but recent statements by Iranian officials cast doubt on such remarks.

In April, an Iranian general suggested that Tehran might revise its nuclear doctrine if Israel were to attack its atomic facilities, a threat that could signal a shift toward nuclear weapons development.

Meanwhile, reports from the IAEA indicate that Iran has enriched its uranium stockpiles, with enough material to potentially fuel multiple warheads.

However, Sikorsky is not the only one disappointed by the Iranian President's performance whose campaign promises inspired some hope of changes in Tehran’s policies.

Since Pezeshkian assumed office in August, Iran has executed more than 90 prisoners. As the anniversary of Mahsa Amini's death in custody approaches—a tragic event that sparked widespread protests in 2022—Pezeshkian's government has intensified its crackdown. Family members of those who were killed, blinded, or injured during the protests are now being arrested.

Others including student activists and journalists such as Hamid Asefi have also been arrested, though Asefi was released on bail later.

In the meantime, economic pressures on the nation have been mounting as the price of bread redoubled in less than one week, while millions of hard pressed poor citizens mainly rely on bread to survive.

According to commentator Abbas Abdi in Tehran, the Iranian Judiciary has been issuing travel bans for several filmmakers following the international success of Iranian underground movies at the Venice Film Festival. Abdi called the practice "harassment of citizens" and called on the government to be accountable for the violation of citizens' rights.

The biggest disappointment in Iran is about Pezeshkian's national accord or national reconciliation doctrine which ended up not to be a reconciliation between the government and nearly 60 percent of the population who refused to vote and 92 percent who are unhappy about their living conditions according to a government survey. It is instead a scheme to share a bit of political power between conservative elements such as vice president Aref in the country's reform camp.

Meanwhile, Iranian media have been accusing the United States and Europe of "psychological warfare" against Iran by stating that Tehran has sent hundreds of ballistic missiles to Russia to be used in the war against Ukraine. In an article on proreform Fararu website foreign relations analyst Ali Bigdeli opined that the accusation is aimed at putting President Pezeshkian in a difficult position when he is going to face reporters in New York soon during the annual UN General Assembly.

Iranians commenting on social media predict that Pezeshkian will face significant embarrassment during his meetings with the press and politicians in New York. This is attributed to several factors, including his perceived naivete in international politics, his untimely and politically incorrect remarks, and his failure to act on promises made over the past two months. These promises include improving internet and social media access and halting the Morality Police's violence against Iranian women.

Just before departing Tehran for a visit to Iraq, Pezeshkian was unaware that his microphones were still on when he asked Khamenei's representative, Mohsen Qomi, after delivering a brief speech: "Did I make a bad blunder?" Upon seeing the cleric smile, Pezeshkian remarked, "They’re sending me on a diplomatic mission about which I know nothing."

If Iran still intends to send Pezeshkian to New York, he may be aware that his chances of improving relations with Europe and the United States have been jeopardized by recent news of arms sales to Moscow. Additionally, it remains uncertain whether Khamenei will authorize him to engage in talks with U.S. officials. Should Khamenei grant permission, it would represent a significant shift, given that he has previously barred at least four other presidents from meeting with Americans. President Hassan Rouhani, who once took a phone call from former President Barack Obama on his way back to JFK airport, faced severe criticism from Khamenei and other hardliners.

Iran badly needs financial resources, and this could justify "heroic flexibility" in the form of exchanging a few words with a US official. Anything beyond that seems to be out of question at least for the time being.

Meanwhile, hardliners in Iran seem to be preparing for a possible change in strategy by promoting the idea of psychological warfare to place Pezeshkian in a difficult position in New York. Pezeshkian has never been comfortable discussing politics, even in Tehran. Although his speeches will be scripted in advance, controlling him during interviews will be challenging, and TV anchors are unlikely to accept superficial questions that do not address serious issues.

Hardline commentators seem to be on the brink of urging the government to cancel the New York visit altogether. Denial of a US visa to a prominent delegate, such as former Foreign Minister Javad Zarif, could provide a pretext for such a move.

On September 14, Iranians across the globe gathered in solidarity, demanding justice for Amini and the countless others who have suffered under the Islamic Republic. The protests stretched from Melbourne and Tokyo to several cities in Europe, with the Iranian diaspora and human rights advocates calling for an end to the tyranny in Tehran and for global powers to take action against the clerical rule.

In Melbourne, Australia, images of Mahsa Amini and other victims were displayed in front of the city’s central library. The organizers of the event, invoking the memories of those slain, urged the Australian government to declare the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) a terrorist organization.

In Sydney, Iranians gathered in a demonstration of defiance, chanting, "Khamenei, you tyrant, we will bury you underground," while lighting candles to honor those killed or imprisoned. Similar protests took place in Brisbane, where demonstrators united in marking the anniversary of Amini's death.

In Copenhagen and Aarhus, Denmark, protesters formed human chains, symbolizing the unity of the Iranian diaspora. They chanted, "We are all together," reaffirming their commitment to the fight for freedom. Across Stockholm, Hamburg, Vienna, and Berlin, the chant "Death to Khamenei" rang through the streets, where demonstrators expressed anger toward the Supreme Leader and his rule. In Frankfurt and Rome, demonstrators also demanded justice, holding signs condemning the atrocities committed by the Islamic Republic.

Similar protests erupted in Tokyo, Brussels, and Groningen, where protesters called for the dismantling of the Islamic Republic. In Malmö and Gothenburg, Sweden, the rallying cry of "Woman, Life, Freedom" resounded in defiance of Iran’s authoritarian policies.

The Los Angeles City Council announced plans to rename an intersection in the city’s Iranian neighborhood to "Woman, Life, Freedom" on Sunday, in honor of the second anniversary of Mahsa Amini's death in the custody of Iran's morality police.

"Mahsa Amini's story did not end with her death. She inspired a historical movement that has impacted Iran and influenced people across the globe who are advocating for gender equality and respect for human rights," US State Department Spokesman Matthew Miller told reporters on Friday, ahead of the second anniversary of Mahsa Amini's death.

While the global Iranian diaspora gathered in protest, human rights activists and experts added their voices to the outcry. Kaveh Shahrooz, a human rights lawyer, spoke at a gathering in Toronto, Canada. Shahrooz emphasized the need for greater institution-building among Iranian activists abroad to ensure that the voices of the Iranian people are amplified on the global stage. "Institution-building is a practice of democracy," Shahrooz said, noting that such efforts can strengthen ties with foreign governments and human rights organizations to hold Iran accountable.

Shirin Shams, a leader of the Women’s Revolution organization, called the "Woman, Life, Freedom" movement a “turning point” in the struggle against the Islamic Republic. In an interview with Iran International, she explained that "the Islamic Republic has not been able to stop the Mahsa movement," which has permeated the fabric of Iranian society. Shams described the movement as a "renaissance against regression and all forms of sexual slavery," adding that the people’s victory over mandatory hijab is only the first step in dismantling the Islamic Republic's policies.

Forough Kanani, a sociologist, echoed the same sentiments, saying that the Mahsa uprising has led to a "revolutionary and intellectual awakening" in Iran. Speaking to Iran International, Kanani highlighted the changes sparked by the 2022 protests. "A society that is aware and has tasted freedom will not go back.”

Despite the government’s efforts to stifle dissent within Iran, acts of defiance persisted. Videos circulated showing graffiti with slogans like "Death to Khamenei" scrawled on walls in Fardis, a city near Tehran.

Even inside the notorious Evin Prison, more than 25 female political prisoners staged a protest, gathering in the women’s ward yard. They burned their scarves in a symbolic rejection of the mandatory hijab and chanted slogans such as "Reformist, conservative, the game is over" and "Freedom, Freedom, Freedom." Their protest extended to a planned hunger strike in solidarity with the broader uprising across Iran.

The family of Mahsa Amini, still bearing the grief of their loss, announced that they would hold a memorial for Mahsa on September 15 at her grave in Saqqez, Kordestan province. Despite pressure and surveillance, Mahsa’s father Amjad Amini has remained steadfast in honoring his daughter’s memory. "If the government doesn’t impose restrictions, we will hold the ceremony," he told local reporters.

As the world watches, experts and activists are calling for more decisive international action. Human rights organizations, political leaders, and governments are being urged to impose further sanctions on Iran’s leadership, recognize the IRGC as a terrorist organization, and ensure that justice is served for the victims of the Islamic Republic’s repression.

Bagheri-Kani, considered a protégé of hardline politician Saeed Jalili, served less than three years in the foreign ministry until the new administration of President Masoud Pezeshkian took over in August.

The SCFR, established in 2006 by order of the Supreme Leader, has all its members directly appointed by Ali Khamenei. On Saturday, Kamal Kharrazi, a senior foreign policy advisor to Khamenei and chair of the SCFR, hosted a ceremony to bid farewell to Abbas Araghchi, the outgoing secretary who left the position to become Iran's foreign minister, and welcome Bagheri-Kani as his successor.

Araghchi was also a nuclear negotiator in President Hassan Rouhani administration until August 2021, when hardliner Ebrahim Raisi assumed office and changed top foreign ministry officials.

Jalili attended Saturday’s ceremony and appeared next to Bagheri-Kani in a group photo, sparking interest due to their close association. Bagheri-Kani is widely recognized as an ally of Jalili, having followed his negotiation strategies while serving as the chief nuclear negotiator under President Raisi. However, those strategies were largely seen as unsuccessful, as they failed to result in any substantial agreements with the West.

Jalili, who lost the 2024 presidential election to Masoud Pezeshkian, has long been a staunch opponent of any compromise with the West on the nuclear issue. He remains an influential figure among Iran’s hardliners, who were critical of the previous administration under Hassan Rouhani, particularly regarding the JCPOA nuclear deal with world powers.

Although the SCFR is generally seen as a ceremonial body where Khamenei appoints former officials to keep them engaged, it still holds some influence. Kharrazi, the council's president, continues to be a key foreign policy advisor to Khamenei. Bagheri-Kani’s appointment raises concerns that Jalili’s allies might use the SCFR to exert more influence over Iran’s foreign policy.